Who Would You Rather Have: Alperen Sengun or Chet Holmgren?

[Mogspan]

Barron Trump

[docholliday99]

I do like both players and both have their pros and cons, though I lean more towards Sengun as I prefer more muscle at the position; at least more than 200lbs. I find debates like this difficult and we tend to glean info from stats, but at the end of the day, I always like to look at the who they're playing with, especially their respective PG's and POA defenders. Chet is playing with a bona fide MVP talent at PG, who may also (or may not) be the team's best defender; enter J-Dub. Sengun's first 2 seasons were playing with probably the worst defender in the league in Green and then there's Porter - yikes.

On the court, Sengun and Chet are really smart players on both ends but would Chet be as effective on defense if he was playing with Green and Porter? As for Sengun, I don't think it's a big surprise that he's looked a lot better on defense this year since they brought in FvV and Brooks (2 solid players but not in the same circle as SGA and J-Dub). Not to mention a coach that knows how to coach defense. Offense is more of the same, 2 centers with high IQ's though Chet is playing with SGA and J-Dub, who are both high IQ players themselves, just super talented which allows Chet to be Chet. I wonder how Sengun would be if you inserted him into OKC's lineup, the team is talented as is but would it open up more? Would it address the rebounding and lack of a physical presence as team's are currently exposing? Then conversely, how would Chet respond if he was with Green and Porter. Would he put up empty stats? Still make the impact he is now, maybe more?

[schnakenpopanz]

ot has been duren first.
now it is holmgren.
next will be jokic.
they raise the comparison level month after month

[K_chile22]

Sengun's shooting is getting worse and he's also still not a good defender in his 3rd year. He's someone you need to build around to hide his defects if he can be more than a novelty.

5th best defense in the league while starting 3 21 and under guys. Better than OKC per CTG. Don't think he can be all that bad as the only center on a top 5 defense at 21 but sure, novelty

[zimpy27]

Why not have both?


OKC...

[dockingsched]

Can the poll be reopened? I’d change my vote from Chet to Sengun.

[Bornstellar]

I'd still rather Chet as I think he obviously has a much higher ceiling on defense and is a much easier plug-and-play type of guy. That doesn't mean Sengun is not a fantastic player in his own right though. He has really impressed me as the season has gone on

[Dan Z]

Why not have both?


OKC...

Because OKC needs more picks! haha.

[ChiTownHero1992]

Sengun, although that is likely my anti-Chet bias...

Out of all i'd rather have Banchero or Wemby though

[doogie_hauser]

Sengun is starting to put the league on notice.

Feel like he has a better overall game than Chet.

[tsherkin]

Sengun is starting to put the league on notice.

Feel like he has a better overall game than Chet.

Mmm. He's put in a more aggressive scoring role, but there's a large difference in defensive relevance to consider as well.

[KdoubleDees23]

Sengun is Enes Kanter

[Infinite Llamas]

Sengun is Enes Kanter

Lmao

Sengun had more assists in tonight’s game than Kanter had in his whole career.

[Hoop Hunter]

Holmgren all day long and I REALLY like Sengun. The defense, the length, Chet baby!

[doogie_hauser]

Read on Twitter

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Alpie's passing and play making for his teammates is a delight to watch.

If they did the 2021 draft again, Sengun definitely goes number 1.

[supertruck97]

Sengun is starting to put the league on notice.

Feel like he has a better overall game than Chet.

Mmm. He's put in a more aggressive scoring role, but there's a large difference in defensive relevance to consider as well.

Show the "large difference in defensive relevence", please.

[Johnny Bball]

Chet just has so much more potential with his type of game and physical tools that it’s not really a fair comparison.

Does he? He's not a big body to defend C, and he's not going to ever be fast getting off screens (granted few teams probably screen into him with a big as ballhandler). Unless you are looking at him as a PF, which I think he is better suited to, so he can roam and play free safety on D.

[ConSarnit]

Sengun is starting to put the league on notice.

Feel like he has a better overall game than Chet.

Mmm. He's put in a more aggressive scoring role, but there's a large difference in defensive relevance to consider as well.

Show the "large difference in defensive relevence", please.

While I’d say that Sengun is definitely better defensively than his rep implies (I’d rate him as slightly above average on that end), DBPM is a bad stat.

DBPM = BPM - OBPM. The creator of DBPM even admits it’s a flawed stat as assist% and reb% end up factoring in too much into DBPM. If you’re a player who gets a lot of assists you’re going to rank higher in DBPM. It’s why Westbrook and Jokic always ranked higher in DBPM than they should have.

I’d project Chet’s defense to end up much higher than Sengun’s. He’s already a near elite rim protector and he’s shown he can switch onto guards/wings and do a very good job. Chet’s only defensive issue is guarding players with bulk but he competes, has length and maybe most importantly, teams just don’t postup enough anymore to really make it a huge issue. Chet is giving up 0.95ppp on post ups this year, which isn’t a bad number (Sengun is 1.06ppp).

If you look at the raw stats Chet is a better defender than Sengun in:

Pnr
Iso
Rim protection (pretty big gap here)

And Chet is doing this as a rookie.

[ConSarnit]

Chet just has so much more potential with his type of game and physical tools that it’s not really a fair comparison.

Does he? He's not a big body to defend C, and he's not going to ever be fast getting off screens (granted few teams probably screen into him with a big as ballhandler). Unless you are looking at him as a PF, which I think he is better suited to, so he can roam and play free safety on D.

How much does that really matter? The numbers show Chet has done a fine job defending post-ups. He doesn't have the bulk but he fights and has the standing reach to contest. Posting up Chet is not some super high efficiency option that teams can likely spam (maybe Jokic or Embiid could but we haven't really seen it yet). His rim protection numbers are aren't elite but he's in the 2nd tier of "really good". We've seen him switch onto smaller players and hold up really well because he's got quick feet and extremely long arms.

Chet really hasn't shown any defensive weaknesses. Even the question marks about his lack of bulk haven't really reared their head (I would guess we won't get a good idea about this until OKC plays a team with a real post-up threat in the playoffs ie. Jokic).

[supertruck97]

Mmm. He's put in a more aggressive scoring role, but there's a large difference in defensive relevance to consider as well.

Show the "large difference in defensive relevence", please.

While I’d say that Sengun is definitely better defensively than his rep implies (I’d rate him as slightly above average on that end), DBPM is a bad stat.

DBPM = BPM - OBPM. The creator of DBPM even admits it’s a flawed stat as assist% and reb% end up factoring in too much into DBPM. If you’re a player who gets a lot of assists you’re going to rank higher in DBPM. It’s why Westbrook and Jokic always ranked higher in DBPM than they should have.

I’d project Chet’s defense to end up much higher than Sengun’s. He’s already a near elite rim protector and he’s shown he can switch onto guards/wings and do a very good job. Chet’s only defensive issue is guarding players with bulk but he competes, has length and maybe most importantly, teams just don’t postup enough anymore to really make it a huge issue. Chet is giving up 0.95ppp on post ups this year, which isn’t a bad number (Sengun is 1.06ppp).

If you look at the raw stats Chet is a better defender than Sengun in:

Pnr
Iso
Rim protection (pretty big gap here)

And Chet is doing this as a rookie.

Chet is 21, Sengun is 21. I don't put any more stock into the "Rookie" crutch, espcially given the....coaching? Sengun was given his first 2 years in the league.

You've cherry picked a few stats where Chet edges out Sengun defensively. Care to share the full data comparison?

BPM might not be the best metric. But Defensive WS is there, and they are identical.

https://www.statmuse.com/nba/ask/nba-defensive-rating-leaders-this-season

Stat Muse Defensive Rating (Lower is better)

Sengun: 110.5 (#15 in the league); Chet: 108.9 (#6 in the league). - A gap, but not a monumental one.

If AlP is a ~ top 15 defender in the NBA (based on these stats), and has his offensive game....