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Official 2023-2024 Magic General Season Thread

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Re: Official 2023-2024 Magic General Season Thread 

Post#1761 » by Knightro » Thu Mar 7, 2024 5:07 pm

I will also say that broadly speaking the non Bill Simmons/Ryen Russillo parts of The Ringer's NBA coverage are HEAVILY into analytics and advanced metrics.

And Paolo, for as much as we like him, does not score all that favorably right now in WS/48, BPM, EPM, etc.

Now obviously there's some nuance to that - shouldering a heavy offensive load, a lack of quality shotmakers around him, etc - but when you factor in these guys really rely on that stuff as much as they do, it makes a little more sense.
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Re: Official 2023-2024 Magic General Season Thread 

Post#1762 » by eyriq » Thu Mar 7, 2024 5:08 pm

JoshuaPotter wrote:
eyriq wrote:
bigdogdylan5 wrote:Magic twitter is lighting up from this interesting opinion.
Read on Twitter
?s=46
Holy **** that's a bad take. I'd love to get their view of why the Magic are a 4th seed.


- injuries to other teams
- teams not talking us seriously
- east looking weak

I bet are the usual hot takes.

As I said in other threads. This year I think a lot of teams have slept on us. We often come in with a ornament of injuries to role players and somehow eek a win out. Our defense is also smothering which is hard to do in this era. Teams have discovered that we are very messy in terms of ball and haven't found a way to make it unmessy.


The weak east should have been baked into Vegas numbers. Injury proneness could get baked in as well and would have to be a factor for watering down Orlando's projection. Teams not taking us seriously could also be baked into Vegas's numbers. I don't think you can take a serious approach to unpacking our success and why we've outperformed Vegas to the extent we have without considering coaching quality and talent. These guys were just lazy.
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Re: Official 2023-2024 Magic General Season Thread 

Post#1763 » by JoshuaPotter » Thu Mar 7, 2024 5:23 pm

eyriq wrote:
JoshuaPotter wrote:
eyriq wrote:Holy **** that's a bad take. I'd love to get their view of why the Magic are a 4th seed.


- injuries to other teams
- teams not talking us seriously
- east looking weak

I bet are the usual hot takes.

As I said in other threads. This year I think a lot of teams have slept on us. We often come in with a ornament of injuries to role players and somehow eek a win out. Our defense is also smothering which is hard to do in this era. Teams have discovered that we are very messy in terms of ball and haven't found a way to make it unmessy.


The weak east should have been baked into Vegas numbers. Injury proneness could get baked in as well and would have to be a factor for watering down Orlando's projection. Teams not taking us seriously could also be baked into Vegas's numbers. I don't think you can take a serious approach to unpacking our success and why we've outperformed Vegas to the extent we have without considering coaching quality and talent. These guys were just lazy.


We agree just as I don't really agree with the take of we are only this good due to being in a weak conference. We are 21-8 at home. No team is simply just "walking into Orlando" and owning us. To me this is the metric of a good to great team.

People also forget we at some point in our rougher months featured a starting lineup with Okeke and Houstan. Like where is our handout for that in the powa rankings.
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Re: Official 2023-2024 Magic General Season Thread 

Post#1764 » by Knightro » Thu Mar 7, 2024 5:40 pm

JoshuaPotter wrote:We agree just as I don't really agree with the take of we are only this good due to being in a weak conference. We are 21-8 at home. No team is simply just "walking into Orlando" and owning us. To me this is the metric of a good to great team.

People also forget we at some point in our rougher months featured a starting lineup with Okeke and Houstan. Like where is our handout for that in the powa rankings.


I mean I do get some of the criticism of the Magic's record. The Magic are 13-0 against the five worst teams in the league (WAS, DET, SA, CHA, POR).

But you know what?

The Wizards have beat the Pacers.

The Pistons have beat the Thunder and Kings.

The Spurs have beat the Suns (twice), Lakers, Wolves, Thunder and Pacers.

The Hornets have beat the Pacers (twice), Celtics, Kings, Wolves.

The Blazers have beat the Pacers (twice), Cavs, Suns, Kings, Sixers, Bucks.

So yeah, it's true that the Magic have feasted on the dregs of the league, but other teams have had the opportunity to do the same (ESPECIALLY Indiana) and haven't gotten it done.

The Pacers have six losses to the bottom five teams in the league!
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Re: Official 2023-2024 Magic General Season Thread 

Post#1765 » by VFX » Thu Mar 7, 2024 6:15 pm

bigdogdylan5 wrote:Magic twitter is lighting up from this interesting opinion.
Read on Twitter
?s=46


Wosney Lambre is a bitch and extremely cringe so this take isn't really surprising.

These guys don't really discuss team basketball. They talk exclusively about superstars, large markets, and regurgitated Twitter takes.
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Re: Official 2023-2024 Magic General Season Thread 

Post#1766 » by msmoore66 » Thu Mar 7, 2024 7:41 pm

Knightro wrote:I will also say that broadly speaking the non Bill Simmons/Ryen Russillo parts of The Ringer's NBA coverage are HEAVILY into analytics and advanced metrics.

And Paolo, for as much as we like him, does not score all that favorably right now in WS/48, BPM, EPM, etc.

Now obviously there's some nuance to that - shouldering a heavy offensive load, a lack of quality shotmakers around him, etc - but when you factor in these guys really rely on that stuff as much as they do, it makes a little more sense.


Not a dig at you Knightro, as I know you are simply explaining how they could get to these views. But ****, before these guys talk they should learn to open their **** eyes. I am a numbers guy usually, hell its been half my career, but if they truly want to give numbers some credence they need to learn to apply them with context. **** like this gives analytics a bad name. All in the name of clicks.

Anyway who the hell is Wosny Lambre?

Knightro wrote:
JoshuaPotter wrote:We agree just as I don't really agree with the take of we are only this good due to being in a weak conference. We are 21-8 at home. No team is simply just "walking into Orlando" and owning us. To me this is the metric of a good to great team.

People also forget we at some point in our rougher months featured a starting lineup with Okeke and Houstan. Like where is our handout for that in the powa rankings.


I mean I do get some of the criticism of the Magic's record. The Magic are 13-0 against the five worst teams in the league (WAS, DET, SA, CHA, POR).

But you know what?

The Wizards have beat the Pacers.

The Pistons have beat the Thunder and Kings.

The Spurs have beat the Suns (twice), Lakers, Wolves, Thunder and Pacers.

The Hornets have beat the Pacers (twice), Celtics, Kings, Wolves.

The Blazers have beat the Pacers (twice), Cavs, Suns, Kings, Sixers, Bucks.

So yeah, it's true that the Magic have feasted on the dregs of the league, but other teams have had the opportunity to do the same (ESPECIALLY Indiana) and haven't gotten it done.

The Pacers have six losses to the bottom five teams in the league!


This 100%. I mentioned momentum in the other thread (Knicks getting theirs disrupted etc). I really hate this take that "oh they beat easy teams etc etc". It goes for all sports, you try beat everyone put in front of you. Winning a supposed easier matchup isn't a detraction, it shows professionalism and just getting the job done.

Don't get me wrong, I quite like being the underdog/overlooked, but this isn't actually it, it's morons spewing shallow minded takes.

Ahhhhhh, felt like a rant morning. Good to get that out.
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Re: Official 2023-2024 Magic General Season Thread 

Post#1767 » by SOUL » Thu Mar 7, 2024 9:23 pm

Paolo's efficiency takes a dive often because his FT% and turnover rate, also he just takes some low quality shots in general, but when you watch him out there, there's a lot that pure advanced numbers don't translate well at all.

He's simultaneously a beast that affects the game and puts up numbers while having a lot of areas he needs work in, which is what the analytics crowd consistently gets wrong in evaluating him.
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Re: Official 2023-2024 Magic General Season Thread 

Post#1768 » by SOUL » Thu Mar 7, 2024 9:28 pm



Better and more nuanced discussion imo!
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Re: Official 2023-2024 Magic General Season Thread 

Post#1769 » by eyriq » Thu Mar 7, 2024 9:33 pm

SOUL wrote:Paolo's efficiency takes a dive often because his FT% and turnover rate, also he just takes some low quality shots in general, but when you watch him out there, there's a lot that pure advanced numbers don't translate well at all.

He's simultaneously a beast that affects the game and puts up numbers while having a lot of areas he needs work in, which is what the analytics crowd consistently gets wrong in evaluating him.
Great point, I also think he clears most empty calorie #1 options because of his size and defense. He's a stat stuffer that lacks efficiency but gets away with it because he's bought in on the defensive side and is our best offensive option on a young team.
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Re: Official 2023-2024 Magic General Season Thread 

Post#1770 » by basketballRob » Thu Mar 7, 2024 9:55 pm

It looks like Carter could still be out tomorrow. He's listed as questionable. The Knicks haven't submitted theirs yet, but Brunson could play.

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Re: Official 2023-2024 Magic General Season Thread 

Post#1771 » by tooler » Thu Mar 7, 2024 11:20 pm

That take above sounds like they’re trying to apply a common talking point to a situation that doesn’t work like they think it does. Sure Paolo isn’t Wembanyama, but he’s also not Cade Cunningham. Why go after him?
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Re: Official 2023-2024 Magic General Season Thread 

Post#1772 » by RookieStar » Thu Mar 7, 2024 11:30 pm

basketballRob wrote:It looks like Carter could still be out tomorrow. He's listed as questionable. The Knicks haven't submitted theirs yet, but Brunson could play.

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We need WcJ for his toughness against Hartenstein and Precious. He wont be outmatched against those 2.

They reallybare rushing Brunson back? They know we are gonna sic Suggs on him right? Better he heals himself properly first. That was a scary injury.
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Re: Official 2023-2024 Magic General Season Thread 

Post#1773 » by basketballRob » Thu Mar 7, 2024 11:31 pm

RookieStar wrote:
basketballRob wrote:It looks like Carter could still be out tomorrow. He's listed as questionable. The Knicks haven't submitted theirs yet, but Brunson could play.

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We need WcJ for his toughness against Hartenstein and Precious. He wont be outmatched against those 2.

They reallybare rushing Brunson back? They know we are gonna sic Suggs on him right? Better he heals himself properly first. That was a scary injury.
Actually, Goga played Hartenstein pretty well. Brunson is listed as questionable.

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Re: Official 2023-2024 Magic General Season Thread 

Post#1774 » by RookieStar » Fri Mar 8, 2024 12:22 am

basketballRob wrote:
RookieStar wrote:
basketballRob wrote:It looks like Carter could still be out tomorrow. He's listed as questionable. The Knicks haven't submitted theirs yet, but Brunson could play.

Sent from my SM-G781U using RealGM mobile app


We need WcJ for his toughness against Hartenstein and Precious. He wont be outmatched against those 2.

They reallybare rushing Brunson back? They know we are gonna sic Suggs on him right? Better he heals himself properly first. That was a scary injury.
Actually, Goga played Hartenstein pretty well. Brunson is listed as questionable.

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Yes but Hartenstein isnt really an offensive threat, so of courae Goga xan easily contain him. What i want is for us to contain him AND score on him which WCJ can probably do better.
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Re: Official 2023-2024 Magic General Season Thread 

Post#1775 » by basketballRob » Fri Mar 8, 2024 12:55 am

RookieStar wrote:
basketballRob wrote:
RookieStar wrote:
We need WcJ for his toughness against Hartenstein and Precious. He wont be outmatched against those 2.

They reallybare rushing Brunson back? They know we are gonna sic Suggs on him right? Better he heals himself properly first. That was a scary injury.
Actually, Goga played Hartenstein pretty well. Brunson is listed as questionable.

Sent from my SM-G781U using RealGM mobile app


Yes but Hartenstein isnt really an offensive threat, so of courae Goga xan easily contain him. What i want is for us to contain him AND score on him which WCJ can probably do better.
I don't think Wendell is a better defender on players like Hartenstein. Wendell had a tough time with him, if I remember correctly. Plus, if Goga isn't shooting, that means more shots for other players.

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Re: Official 2023-2024 Magic General Season Thread 

Post#1776 » by RookieStar » Fri Mar 8, 2024 1:02 am

basketballRob wrote:
RookieStar wrote:
basketballRob wrote:Actually, Goga played Hartenstein pretty well. Brunson is listed as questionable.

Sent from my SM-G781U using RealGM mobile app


Yes but Hartenstein isnt really an offensive threat, so of courae Goga xan easily contain him. What i want is for us to contain him AND score on him which WCJ can probably do better.
I don't think Wendell is a better defender on players like Hartenstein. Wendell had a tough time with him, if I remember correctly. Plus, if Goga isn't shooting, that means more shots for other players.

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Wendell is a good defender on a C like Hartenstein is because Hart isnt really an offensive player.

Well if Goga isnt shooting and the opposing teams know that, it means more wall against PB
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Re: Official 2023-2024 Magic General Season Thread 

Post#1777 » by Bensational » Fri Mar 8, 2024 1:40 am

I kinda love that our team seems to be built to defy modern analytics. I would imagine current common beliefs overvalue 3pt shooting and undervalue defense, and especially our ability to grind a lot of teams down to play at our pace and well below their average efficiency. I’d be interested to know how Paolo’s efficiency compares to opposing star players when they play against us. My guess is that context closes the gap a bit.

Lots of room for this team to grow, but we’ve got incredible foundations.
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Re: Official 2023-2024 Magic General Season Thread 

Post#1778 » by RookieStar » Fri Mar 8, 2024 1:43 am

I just blinked and that 15pt lead of the wolves against the pqcers just disappeared.

The good news is that MIA double digit lead against DAL also disappeared.

Sheeeesh.
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Re: Official 2023-2024 Magic General Season Thread 

Post#1779 » by SOUL » Fri Mar 8, 2024 1:52 am

RookieStar wrote:I just blinked and that 15pt lead of the wolves against the pqcers just disappeared.

The good news is that MIA double digit lead against DAL also disappeared.

Sheeeesh.


WRong thread :wink:
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Re: Official 2023-2024 Magic General Season Thread 

Post#1780 » by RookieStar » Fri Mar 8, 2024 2:01 am

SOUL wrote:
RookieStar wrote:I just blinked and that 15pt lead of the wolves against the pqcers just disappeared.

The good news is that MIA double digit lead against DAL also disappeared.

Sheeeesh.


WRong thread :wink:


Yikes. My bad.

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