Reed Sheppard and Rob Dillingham - 2024 NBA Draft

[The-Power]

Last night he was really quiet. Pretty sure he was scoreless in first half in what was a tight game until Dillingham went bizerk mode.

Reed didn't attempt a shot inside of 15 feet, the 2 3s he made he was open by more than 5 feet. He hit his one shot inside the 3pt line which was a pull up from free throw line off a ball screen.

So? His fingerprints were still all over the offense. It was clearly a good game from him.

We have different definitions of a good game, Dillingham clearly had a good game.
Watching Sheppard game he could have been a 5th year senior zero star recruit that has no NBA future for all I know.

And Im not just judging him off this game, I just think too often he looks very pedestrian.

If you evaluate him solely based on his scoring then surely he can look pedestrian. But he was the focal point of the offense in that game and had a hand in numerous good shot attempts, and the few points he did score he did so efficiently. The coaches at Kentucky see his consistent impact because despite coming off the bench it usually is Sheppard who is trusted the most among the Freshman Guards. There's a reason for that and it's because he impacts the game beyond his scoring or even his broader boxscore numbers. And I'm more positive with him than I am with anyone else that coaches in the NBA will see his value and love him, too.

[JMAC3]

So? His fingerprints were still all over the offense. It was clearly a good game from him.

We have different definitions of a good game, Dillingham clearly had a good game.
Watching Sheppard game he could have been a 5th year senior zero star recruit that has no NBA future for all I know.

And Im not just judging him off this game, I just think too often he looks very pedestrian.

If you evaluate him solely based on his scoring then surely he can look pedestrian. But he was the focal point of the offense in that game and had a hand in numerous good shot attempts, and the few points he did score he did so efficiently. The coaches at Kentucky see his consistent impact because despite coming off the bench it usually is Sheppard who is trusted the most among the Freshman Guards. There's a reason for that and it's because he impacts the game beyond his scoring or even his broader boxscore numbers. And I'm more positive with him than I am with anyone else that coaches in the NBA will see his value and love him, too.

It isn't about the scoring though, he shot only jumpers. He had 11 assists, which were mainly look ahead or simple passes in the half court that led to buckets. Whereas Dillingham and even Reaves were getting assists because of their aggressiveness getting into the paint, to me those are the assists that translate to the next level.

You could probably find 10 plays that showcase why Dillingham is a lottery pick last night whether it was getting to basket, hitting tough pulls ups, deep threes, dump off passes drawing 2 in the paint... etc. , idk if Reed even had 1 or 2 plays worth making a highlight reel.

Again, I am not basing my whole opinion on Reed based on one game, but it feels like the guys who are invested in Reed will find any excuse to say he played a good game whether he has 6 pts or 26 pts your opinion of him never sways.

[The-Power]

He had 11 assists, which were mainly look ahead or simple passes in the half court that led to buckets.

I disagree. There were tons of really good passes in there. Some easy assists, sure, but also some missed shots on better passes. Also, not many players can consistently make the right reads and deliver accurately and on time. It's a skill and Sheppard has it, which is why he's more trusted by Coach Cal than any other Freshman/Underclassman on that team.

idk if Reed even had 1 or 2 plays worth making a highlight reel.

I guess this is where we just disagree when it comes to evaluating players. I don't care much about the highlight reel at the end of a game, especially for a player like Sheppard. Making a lot of highlight plays is not what makes him valuable.

Older versions of Chris Paul didn't put up a great highlight mixtape but he was an elite impact player because of organizing the offense, consistently making correct decisions, delivering accurate and timely passes, and scoring when the situation called for it. There were and are plenty of players with much better highlight reels that could never hold a candle to old man Paul's impact and value.

[JustBuzzin]

Bones Hyland 2.0

[EvanZ]

We have different definitions of a good game, Dillingham clearly had a good game.
Watching Sheppard game he could have been a 5th year senior zero star recruit that has no NBA future for all I know.

And Im not just judging him off this game, I just think too often he looks very pedestrian.

If you evaluate him solely based on his scoring then surely he can look pedestrian. But he was the focal point of the offense in that game and had a hand in numerous good shot attempts, and the few points he did score he did so efficiently. The coaches at Kentucky see his consistent impact because despite coming off the bench it usually is Sheppard who is trusted the most among the Freshman Guards. There's a reason for that and it's because he impacts the game beyond his scoring or even his broader boxscore numbers. And I'm more positive with him than I am with anyone else that coaches in the NBA will see his value and love him, too.

It isn't about the scoring though, he shot only jumpers. He had 11 assists, which were mainly look ahead or simple passes in the half court that led to buckets. Whereas Dillingham and even Reaves were getting assists because of their aggressiveness getting into the paint, to me those are the assists that translate to the next level.

You could probably find 10 plays that showcase why Dillingham is a lottery pick last night whether it was getting to basket, hitting tough pulls ups, deep threes, dump off passes drawing 2 in the paint... etc. , idk if Reed even had 1 or 2 plays worth making a highlight reel.

Again, I am not basing my whole opinion on Reed based on one game, but it feels like the guys who are invested in Reed will find any excuse to say he played a good game whether he has 6 pts or 26 pts your opinion of him never sways.

Did you watch the game against Mississippi St?

[JMAC3]

If you evaluate him solely based on his scoring then surely he can look pedestrian. But he was the focal point of the offense in that game and had a hand in numerous good shot attempts, and the few points he did score he did so efficiently. The coaches at Kentucky see his consistent impact because despite coming off the bench it usually is Sheppard who is trusted the most among the Freshman Guards. There's a reason for that and it's because he impacts the game beyond his scoring or even his broader boxscore numbers. And I'm more positive with him than I am with anyone else that coaches in the NBA will see his value and love him, too.

It isn't about the scoring though, he shot only jumpers. He had 11 assists, which were mainly look ahead or simple passes in the half court that led to buckets. Whereas Dillingham and even Reaves were getting assists because of their aggressiveness getting into the paint, to me those are the assists that translate to the next level.

You could probably find 10 plays that showcase why Dillingham is a lottery pick last night whether it was getting to basket, hitting tough pulls ups, deep threes, dump off passes drawing 2 in the paint... etc. , idk if Reed even had 1 or 2 plays worth making a highlight reel.

Again, I am not basing my whole opinion on Reed based on one game, but it feels like the guys who are invested in Reed will find any excuse to say he played a good game whether he has 6 pts or 26 pts your opinion of him never sways.

Did you watch the game against Mississippi St?

Yes, as I said, not basing my concerns off 1 game. I would hope if he is lottery pick that he has had some good games, to me it's much more the bigger picture of what does he do most often.

[Hal14]

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[REJECTEDBYCLARK]

To the naked eye and analytics junkies Reed seemingly appears to be an amazing if not generational talent and I initially thought extremely highly of him. Examining him more closely, I do not see him as an offensive hub but rather someone heavily dependent on what his teammates will create for him and what the defense will give him at the NBA level. The thing with Reed is that he is excellent at capitalizing on the opportunities and space that presents itself, yet in my mind largely projects to be incapable of consistently creating such opportunities and space for himself or his teammates. The comparisons to John Stockton I have seen cannot be taken seriously as most of Reed's passes that score assists either come in the form of full-court passes, lobs or perimeter passes to Kentucky's highly efficient outside shooting threats in Reeves and Dillingham. He does flash some higher degree of difficulty passes here and there but the story of his season at Kentucky has been conservatism as a half-court passer. In my opinion Dillingham is a much more highly skilled half-court passer who possesses the requisite athleticism and driving ability to constantly shift defenses at the NBA level along with the live-dribble passing ability and vision to create quality looks for his teammates.

Furthermore while Reed is capable of forcing turnovers at a very high rate due to his phenomenal hands, his ability to body and mirror other players to contest and closeout coupled with his defensive awareness limits his defensive outlook in my eyes when it comes to the aspects of the game that factor into "defensive efficiency". John Calipari has criticized his defense this year but also acknowledged that due to his elite ability to take the ball away, he has to live with the mistakes.

He's a really fun prospect to evaluate because on the surface it's hard not to love him but when you start really breaking down his game there are a lot of very legitimate concerns about what his ceiling is in the NBA. I think I'm at the point where I'm confident he won't be a star player and that his best role outcome is as a high end role playing starter. Like all good small guards do, he mitigates his limitations due to size (and in his case athleticism) by finding ways to impact production in very meaningful ways (excellent shooter, excellent full-court/transition passer, gains possessions for team due to disruptiveness).

[Colbinii]

He's a really fun prospect to evaluate because on the surface it's hard not to love him but when you start really breaking down his game there are a lot of very legitimate concerns about what his ceiling is in the NBA. I think I'm at the point where I'm confident he won't be a star player and that his best role outcome is as a high end role playing starter. Like all good small guards do, he mitigates his limitations due to size (and in his case athleticism) by finding ways to impact production in very meaningful ways (excellent shooter, excellent full-court/transition passer, gains possessions for team due to disruptiveness).

I find the inverse true. On a surface he looks like a statistical darling with limited athleticism and an inability to consistently create for others.

[EvanZ]

He's a really fun prospect to evaluate because on the surface it's hard not to love him but when you start really breaking down his game there are a lot of very legitimate concerns about what his ceiling is in the NBA. I think I'm at the point where I'm confident he won't be a star player and that his best role outcome is as a high end role playing starter. Like all good small guards do, he mitigates his limitations due to size (and in his case athleticism) by finding ways to impact production in very meaningful ways (excellent shooter, excellent full-court/transition passer, gains possessions for team due to disruptiveness).

I find the inverse true. On a surface he looks like a statistical darling with limited athleticism and an inability to consistently create for others.

How do you look at his stats and come away thinking he can't "consistently" create for others? > 2:1 A:T ratio, > 1:1 AST%:USG%...If anything I think he's more of a true point guard than people realize, similar to the role both Maxey and Quickley had in Kentucky. This is how Calipari does guards time after time and nobody seems to remember the lessons.

[EvanZ]

It's interesting to me that people aren't comparing Reed to Cason. I can only guess why. But Cason is actually a pretty good comp for his NBA role. Cason not a great athlete either. Just a smart winning basketball player who can do pretty much everything well. Had a lot of the same criticisms levied against him as Reed, and was/is a worse shooter.

[JMAC3]

It's interesting to me that people aren't comparing Reed to Cason. I can only guess why. But Cason is actually a pretty good comp for his NBA role. Cason not a great athlete either. Just a smart winning basketball player who can do pretty much everything well. Had a lot of the same criticisms levied against him as Reed, and was/is a worse shooter.

Probably their size.
Cason was 6-2.5 without shoes with a 6-8.5 wingspan and 195 lbs. At that size and wingspan him playing the 2 was a bit more feasible than what you can project with Sheppard who will probably come in shorter, lighter and much smaller wingspan. His build was a large part people were high on his defensive upside longterm.

But yes, offensively I think they could be similar players. Cason plays almost exclusively off the ball with OKC evident by his 1.3 apg. He is a good fit because OKC has other guys who can be primary ball handlers and allows Cason to sit in corner and spread floor (55% of his 3pa are corner 3s). That matches more of the system I think Reed makes sense in as well.

Cason was also projected in the 8-16 range of last draft.

[REJECTEDBYCLARK]

Reed compares favorably to me with the secondary ballhandler version of Fred Van Vleet that was displayed during the Raptors championship season, except with a few modifications - namely he will be a much more efficient shooter on both deep balls and midrange pullups yet an inferior POA defender but with stock production that looks more similar to what we've seen at the height of FVV's career. I think the best version of Reed will be dependent upon him having this kind of role as an undersized SG and not being an ultra high USG workhorse dribbling the ball all over the place and trying to distribute and take guys off the bounce 1v1.

[Colbinii]

He's a really fun prospect to evaluate because on the surface it's hard not to love him but when you start really breaking down his game there are a lot of very legitimate concerns about what his ceiling is in the NBA. I think I'm at the point where I'm confident he won't be a star player and that his best role outcome is as a high end role playing starter. Like all good small guards do, he mitigates his limitations due to size (and in his case athleticism) by finding ways to impact production in very meaningful ways (excellent shooter, excellent full-court/transition passer, gains possessions for team due to disruptiveness).

I find the inverse true. On a surface he looks like a statistical darling with limited athleticism and an inability to consistently create for others.

How do you look at his stats and come away thinking he can't "consistently" create for others? > 2:1 A:T ratio, > 1:1 AST%:USG%...If anything I think he's more of a true point guard than people realize, similar to the role both Maxey and Quickley had in Kentucky. This is how Calipari does guards time after time and nobody seems to remember the lessons.

I consider surface level as looking at assist totals and not taking into context how Kentucky operates.

[HadAnEffectHere]

It's interesting to me that people aren't comparing Reed to Cason. I can only guess why. But Cason is actually a pretty good comp for his NBA role. Cason not a great athlete either. Just a smart winning basketball player who can do pretty much everything well. Had a lot of the same criticisms levied against him as Reed, and was/is a worse shooter.

Cason Wallace: 6'2.5", 6'8.5" wingspan, 195 pounds, very good lateral quickness
Reed Sheppard: 6'1", 6'3" wingspan, 187 pounds, so-so lateral quickness

Is the reason very hard to guess.

Sheppard's major issue is that he's an elite help defender and bad 1 on 1 defender, but being a bad 1 on 1 defender in the NBA as a guard almost instantly negates any value you bring on help defense as you'll be targeted 100% of the time. Cason Wallace was an extremely good 1 on 1 defender in college.

What does Sheppard do when the Celtics focus their offense on getting a switch where Sheppard is guarding Jayson Tatum.

What's the plan then.

[EvanZ]

I find the inverse true. On a surface he looks like a statistical darling with limited athleticism and an inability to consistently create for others.

How do you look at his stats and come away thinking he can't "consistently" create for others? > 2:1 A:T ratio, > 1:1 AST%:USG%...If anything I think he's more of a true point guard than people realize, similar to the role both Maxey and Quickley had in Kentucky. This is how Calipari does guards time after time and nobody seems to remember the lessons.

I consider surface level as looking at assist totals and not taking into context how Kentucky operates.

But you said:

On a surface he looks like a statistical darling with limited athleticism and an inability to consistently create for others.

Now you're saying his "inability to create" is not on a surface level. Which is it?

[EvanZ]

It's interesting to me that people aren't comparing Reed to Cason. I can only guess why. But Cason is actually a pretty good comp for his NBA role. Cason not a great athlete either. Just a smart winning basketball player who can do pretty much everything well. Had a lot of the same criticisms levied against him as Reed, and was/is a worse shooter.

Cason Wallace: 6'2.5", 6'8.5" wingspan, 195 pounds, very good lateral quickness
Reed Sheppard: 6'1", 6'3" wingspan, 187 pounds, so-so lateral quickness

Is the reason very hard to guess.

Sheppard's major issue is that he's an elite help defender and bad 1 on 1 defender, but being a bad 1 on 1 defender in the NBA as a guard almost instantly negates any value you bring on help defense as you'll be targeted 100% of the time. Cason Wallace was an extremely good 1 on 1 defender in college.

What does Sheppard do when the Celtics focus their offense on getting a switch where Sheppard is guarding Jayson Tatum.

What's the plan then.

You're vastly overthinking it. I mean basically what you're telling me is I should worry about a situation where Sheppard is starting against the Celtics in the NBA Finals.

Ok, I'll take that problem.

[Colbinii]

How do you look at his stats and come away thinking he can't "consistently" create for others? > 2:1 A:T ratio, > 1:1 AST%:USG%...If anything I think he's more of a true point guard than people realize, similar to the role both Maxey and Quickley had in Kentucky. This is how Calipari does guards time after time and nobody seems to remember the lessons.

I consider surface level as looking at assist totals and not taking into context how Kentucky operates.

But you said:

On a surface he looks like a statistical darling with limited athleticism and an inability to consistently create for others.

Now you're saying his "inability to create" is not on a surface level. Which is it?

He has low volume of scoring/assists, which makes it easy to think he lacks an ability to create.

[HadAnEffectHere]

It's interesting to me that people aren't comparing Reed to Cason. I can only guess why. But Cason is actually a pretty good comp for his NBA role. Cason not a great athlete either. Just a smart winning basketball player who can do pretty much everything well. Had a lot of the same criticisms levied against him as Reed, and was/is a worse shooter.

Cason Wallace: 6'2.5", 6'8.5" wingspan, 195 pounds, very good lateral quickness
Reed Sheppard: 6'1", 6'3" wingspan, 187 pounds, so-so lateral quickness

Is the reason very hard to guess.

Sheppard's major issue is that he's an elite help defender and bad 1 on 1 defender, but being a bad 1 on 1 defender in the NBA as a guard almost instantly negates any value you bring on help defense as you'll be targeted 100% of the time. Cason Wallace was an extremely good 1 on 1 defender in college.

What does Sheppard do when the Celtics focus their offense on getting a switch where Sheppard is guarding Jayson Tatum.

What's the plan then.

You're vastly overthinking it. I mean basically what you're telling me is I should worry about a situation where Sheppard is starting against the Celtics in the NBA Finals.

Ok, I'll take that problem.

Okay, let's say instead of Jayson Tatum it's

Luka Doncic
Zion Williamson
Giannis
Jimmy Butler
Kawhi Leonard
LeBron James
Kevin Durant
Anthony Edwards

Or any big guy who will target Sheppard constantly.

[EvanZ]

I consider surface level as looking at assist totals and not taking into context how Kentucky operates.

But you said:

On a surface he looks like a statistical darling with limited athleticism and an inability to consistently create for others.

Now you're saying his "inability to create" is not on a surface level. Which is it?

He has low volume of scoring/assists, which makes it easy to think he lacks an ability to create.

But his volume of assists isn't even low. 4.5 per game isn't that low to me historically for a Freshman guard. Even for a lead guard. Seems fine. That's a weird criticism to me. Seems like a strawman.