Who Would You Rather Have: Alperen Sengun or Chet Holmgren?

[K_chile22]

Show the "large difference in defensive relevence", please.

While I’d say that Sengun is definitely better defensively than his rep implies (I’d rate him as slightly above average on that end), DBPM is a bad stat.

DBPM = BPM - OBPM. The creator of DBPM even admits it’s a flawed stat as assist% and reb% end up factoring in too much into DBPM. If you’re a player who gets a lot of assists you’re going to rank higher in DBPM. It’s why Westbrook and Jokic always ranked higher in DBPM than they should have.

I’d project Chet’s defense to end up much higher than Sengun’s. He’s already a near elite rim protector and he’s shown he can switch onto guards/wings and do a very good job. Chet’s only defensive issue is guarding players with bulk but he competes, has length and maybe most importantly, teams just don’t postup enough anymore to really make it a huge issue. Chet is giving up 0.95ppp on post ups this year, which isn’t a bad number (Sengun is 1.06ppp).

If you look at the raw stats Chet is a better defender than Sengun in:

Pnr
Iso
Rim protection (pretty big gap here)

And Chet is doing this as a rookie.

Chet is 21, Sengun is 21. I don't put any more stock into the "Rookie" crutch, espcially given the....coaching? Sengun was given his first 2 years in the league.

You've cherry picked a few stats where Chet edges out Sengun defensively. Care to share the full data comparison?

BPM might not be the best metric. But Defensive WS is there, and they are identical.

Chet is inarguably a better defender and trying to argue he isn't makes you look a bit silly.

The argument lies in the fact that Sengun is an offensive engine and Chet is a great complimentary guy on that end.

Do think some posters see a caricature of the skilled scoring big on defense with Sengun instead of what he's actually been this year for sure though. Calling him Kanter or a novelty pretty much invalidates your opinion on Sengun to me. He has his flaws but be serious. If he was that bad it'd be impossible for them to be a top 6 defense with him as the only center on the team

[supertruck97]

While I’d say that Sengun is definitely better defensively than his rep implies (I’d rate him as slightly above average on that end), DBPM is a bad stat.

DBPM = BPM - OBPM. The creator of DBPM even admits it’s a flawed stat as assist% and reb% end up factoring in too much into DBPM. If you’re a player who gets a lot of assists you’re going to rank higher in DBPM. It’s why Westbrook and Jokic always ranked higher in DBPM than they should have.

I’d project Chet’s defense to end up much higher than Sengun’s. He’s already a near elite rim protector and he’s shown he can switch onto guards/wings and do a very good job. Chet’s only defensive issue is guarding players with bulk but he competes, has length and maybe most importantly, teams just don’t postup enough anymore to really make it a huge issue. Chet is giving up 0.95ppp on post ups this year, which isn’t a bad number (Sengun is 1.06ppp).

If you look at the raw stats Chet is a better defender than Sengun in:

Pnr
Iso
Rim protection (pretty big gap here)

And Chet is doing this as a rookie.

Chet is 21, Sengun is 21. I don't put any more stock into the "Rookie" crutch, espcially given the....coaching? Sengun was given his first 2 years in the league.

You've cherry picked a few stats where Chet edges out Sengun defensively. Care to share the full data comparison?

BPM might not be the best metric. But Defensive WS is there, and they are identical.

Chet is inarguably a better defender and trying to argue he isn't makes you look a bit silly.

The argument lies in the fact that Sengun is an offensive engine and Chet is a great complimentary guy on that end.

Do think some posters see a caricature of the skilled scoring big on defense with Sengun instead of what he's actually been this year for sure though

I'm not arguing that AlP is a better defender than Chet. I'm arguing that the gap between Chet's defense and AlP's is not as wide as people on this thread are intimating. All available stats support this position.

Chet is objectively better at defense, agreed. But it's not Gobert vs Kanter.

[slick_watts]

I'm not arguing that AlP is a better defender than Chet. I'm arguing that the gap between Chet's defense and AlP's is not as wide as people on this thread are intimating. All available stats support this position.

the apm metrics will show a big difference. chet is in 92nd percentile on D-EPM, sengun is 72nd percentile. DARKO projection has chet at +1.5 D-DPM, sengun is +0.1 D-DPM. chet is +1.98 D-LEBRON, sengun is +0.36 D-LEBRON.

in other words, the metrics that have on/off components strongly favor chet. metric like bpm will favor sengun, because he's on a good defensive team and receives equal credit for that defense whether he's on the court or not.

it's a large gap. larger if you consider the future projections for these players and their physical profiles.

[The Servant]

I'm taking the defensive anchor who's averaging 40% on 4.3 3's a game because it is so easy to build around. Chet has just fit so well on OKC and everything is in the flow of the game.

[QingJames]

Chet is not Jokic either. What is the logic of comparing with the MVP level player at his prime?

Player archetype.

Basing evaluations on archetypes without taking individuality into account is a grave error. This doesn't just apply to basketball, by the way.

Obviously you need to take individual context into account, but it’s foolish to pretend that certain player archetypes aren’t more conducive to winning/easier to build around than others. The Jokic archetype - play-making offensive hub C with poor-to-mediocre defense, is not an archetype that has been traditionally conducive to team success at the highest levels, although perhaps we are seeing a shift in that now. Where the individuality component comes into play is that Jokic is such an elite shooter and arguably the best passer to ever play the game, and that sets him apart as a top-tier difference maker from Sabonis, who is a similar archetype.

The point is that it’s not at all hard to see how a player of Chet’s archetype - a mobile, shotblocking 4/5 tweener with range and limited self-creation, fits on every single team in the league and essentially any system. You don’t have to construct the team around Chet because his skillset fits perfectly with just about any assortment of teammates you can find. He’ll be maximally effective no matter who you surround him with.

Sengun is different. You need to construct a team that specifically plays to his strengths (no ball dominant guards, for instance) and caters to his weaknesses (his putrid defense). Sengun isn’t the guy you can plug-and-play on basically any team in the league. He needs a specific kind of roster around him. You can see the difficulties a team like the Kings have had trying to construct a working defense around Sabonis. Rockets will have the same difficulties when it comes to building a contender around Sengun.

[ConSarnit]

Show the "large difference in defensive relevence", please.

While I’d say that Sengun is definitely better defensively than his rep implies (I’d rate him as slightly above average on that end), DBPM is a bad stat.

DBPM = BPM - OBPM. The creator of DBPM even admits it’s a flawed stat as assist% and reb% end up factoring in too much into DBPM. If you’re a player who gets a lot of assists you’re going to rank higher in DBPM. It’s why Westbrook and Jokic always ranked higher in DBPM than they should have.

I’d project Chet’s defense to end up much higher than Sengun’s. He’s already a near elite rim protector and he’s shown he can switch onto guards/wings and do a very good job. Chet’s only defensive issue is guarding players with bulk but he competes, has length and maybe most importantly, teams just don’t postup enough anymore to really make it a huge issue. Chet is giving up 0.95ppp on post ups this year, which isn’t a bad number (Sengun is 1.06ppp).

If you look at the raw stats Chet is a better defender than Sengun in:

Pnr
Iso
Rim protection (pretty big gap here)

And Chet is doing this as a rookie.

Chet is 21, Sengun is 21. I don't put any more stock into the "Rookie" crutch, espcially given the....coaching? Sengun was given his first 2 years in the league.

You've cherry picked a few stats where Chet edges out Sengun defensively. Care to share the full data comparison?

BPM might not be the best metric. But Defensive WS is there, and they are identical.

I'll preface this by saying: there are no good advanced defensive metrics that exist to the public. Paraphrased from Daryl Morey: public all-in-one defensive metrics are really bad and even teams internal metrics are "okay, not great". All of these defensive box score stats rely on box score data (not a good way to evaluate defense). Almost all heavily weigh rebounding too much. DWS is more of a team stat. If you play with really good defenders you will get a bump in DWS. Every outlier (players who are bad defenders) on the top of DWS list is there because they play on a good defensive team.

As for stats (Chet vs Sengun)

Chet and Sengun have very similar pnr defensive numbers (very slightly in favor of Chet)

Iso ppp: 0.88 vs 0.94

Post-up ppp: 0.95 vs 1.06

DefReb%: 18.8 vs 19.3

But the biggest difference is in rim protection:

Chet contests shots at 53% frequency (highest in the league) and players are shooting -11% against their normal fg%.

Sengun contests shots at 45% frequency and player are shooting -5.4%

Chet is contesting a bunch of rim attempts and doing so at a near elite level. Sengun is protecting the rim at the level of an average starting C. The same goes for total DFGA (-5% FG vs -1.3% FG, favoring Chet).

So they have defended the pnr at about the same level and Chet has been better in both iso and post defense. Chet also has a large advantage as a rim protector. I also disagree with the premise that Chet and Sengun are on equal footings and that being a rookie doesn't matter. Having 2 extra years of NBA experience is significant in a players development, even if the coaching was bad.

(note: even as a say all of this I am probably higher on Sengun's defense than the average poster. He gets lumped in with Sabonis because of their similar play style and body type but Sengun is a couple levels above Sabonis as a defender imo. Sengun is "solid").

[firedavidkahn]

Sengun is starting to put the league on notice.

Feel like he has a better overall game than Chet.

Mmm. He's put in a more aggressive scoring role, but there's a large difference in defensive relevance to consider as well.

Show the "large difference in defensive relevence", please.

The creators of DBPM readily admit it's a flawed stat and that the eye test should be used over it.

You can't accurately quantify a defensive players impact based on box score stats. BPM is a stat specifically designed to try and gauge impact solely off box scores. It's a pretty good metric for comparing offensive impact but DBPM is pretty much worthless (creators of the stat admit it)

[Johnny Bball]

Chet just has so much more potential with his type of game and physical tools that it’s not really a fair comparison.

Does he? He's not a big body to defend C, and he's not going to ever be fast getting off screens (granted few teams probably screen into him with a big as ballhandler). Unless you are looking at him as a PF, which I think he is better suited to, so he can roam and play free safety on D.

How much does that really matter? The numbers show Chet has done a fine job defending post-ups. He doesn't have the bulk but he fights and has the standing reach to contest. Posting up Chet is not some super high efficiency option that teams can likely spam (maybe Jokic or Embiid could but we haven't really seen it yet). His rim protection numbers are aren't elite but he's in the 2nd tier of "really good". We've seen him switch onto smaller players and hold up really well because he's got quick feet and extremely long arms.

Chet really hasn't shown any defensive weaknesses. Even the question marks about his lack of bulk haven't really reared their head (I would guess we won't get a good idea about this until OKC plays a team with a real post-up threat in the playoffs ie. Jokic).

I think the caveat here is he's got quick feet for his size... and his length is what does help the most, but by no means is he "quick".

[Woodsanity]

Sengun is a good defender, not as good as Chet of course but he is much more advanced offensively. This is a close comparison as it should be.

Sengun does not have the benefit of having it easy like Chet who plays with an MVP level player.

[tsherkin]

Sengun is a good defender, not as good as Chet of course but he is much more advanced offensively. This is a close comparison as it should be.

Sengun does not have the benefit of having it easy like Chet who plays with an MVP level player.

Sengun is certainly a more advanced offensive player, and does not benefit from playing alongside an SGA-caliber player, that is very true.

[sikma42]

Does he? He's not a big body to defend C, and he's not going to ever be fast getting off screens (granted few teams probably screen into him with a big as ballhandler). Unless you are looking at him as a PF, which I think he is better suited to, so he can roam and play free safety on D.

How much does that really matter? The numbers show Chet has done a fine job defending post-ups. He doesn't have the bulk but he fights and has the standing reach to contest. Posting up Chet is not some super high efficiency option that teams can likely spam (maybe Jokic or Embiid could but we haven't really seen it yet). His rim protection numbers are aren't elite but he's in the 2nd tier of "really good". We've seen him switch onto smaller players and hold up really well because he's got quick feet and extremely long arms.

Chet really hasn't shown any defensive weaknesses. Even the question marks about his lack of bulk haven't really reared their head (I would guess we won't get a good idea about this until OKC plays a team with a real post-up threat in the playoffs ie. Jokic).

I think the caveat here is he's got quick feet for his size... and his length is what does help the most, but by no means is he "quick".

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[Gary Cokeman]

I'm taking the defensive anchor who's averaging 40% on 4.3 3's a game because it is so easy to build around. Chet has just fit so well on OKC and everything is in the flow of the game.

Having SGA is blinding OKC fans, the hardest part of building a team is finding a legit #1 option, that's what Sengun has been looking like. Without SGA, Chet would have more on his plate and the convo around OKC would be how can they find a #1 guy to push Chet down the pecking order.

[jasonxxx102]

Chet is 21, Sengun is 21. I don't put any more stock into the "Rookie" crutch, espcially given the....coaching? Sengun was given his first 2 years in the league.

You've cherry picked a few stats where Chet edges out Sengun defensively. Care to share the full data comparison?

BPM might not be the best metric. But Defensive WS is there, and they are identical.

Chet is inarguably a better defender and trying to argue he isn't makes you look a bit silly.

The argument lies in the fact that Sengun is an offensive engine and Chet is a great complimentary guy on that end.

Do think some posters see a caricature of the skilled scoring big on defense with Sengun instead of what he's actually been this year for sure though

I'm not arguing that AlP is a better defender than Chet. I'm arguing that the gap between Chet's defense and AlP's is not as wide as people on this thread are intimating. All available stats support this position.

Chet is objectively better at defense, agreed. But it's not Gobert vs Kanter.

This is just straight up wrong.

Chet is light years better defensively. He’s elite by any metric and the eye test.

Sengun is average at his absolute best.

The distance between them as defenders is so wide it’s not even worth discussing

[Lockdown504090]

Sengun is a good defender, not as good as Chet of course but he is much more advanced offensively. This is a close comparison as it should be.

Sengun does not have the benefit of having it easy like Chet who plays with an MVP level player.

Not saying he isn’t good, but to say Chet play with shai, I’m interested to see what alp playing with brooks, smith, fvv, amen Thompson does for him as well. I don’t know. I just know those guys are better than what most middling teams have on defense and im not sure it matters who the 5 man is will have some huge impact on their regular season defense.
That being said, alp is not a come, he’s not some unathletic soft euro. He’s just not Joel embiid and i don’t know if that matters anymore

[ocelot17]

Sengun in his third season is on the jokic trajectory. Who knows how good he’ll be, it’s too early to say.

Even jokic wasn’t jokic until three or four years ago.

[John Murdoch]

I think Chet peaks at like Marcus Camby level and Alpo peaks at like Memphis Pau Gasol

[DCasey91]

I think Chet peaks at like Marcus Camby level and Alpo peaks at like Memphis Pau Gasol

Chet is having a better offensive season than any of Camby’s career

I see Dirk Lite on that end but pretty much a shoe in for top 10 defender every year

if we witness a 23/9/2.5 block season uber efficient low turnover eco with 40% 3 season 3 then it’s on.

Great players usually have 2 jumps

Next

Pau Gasol is not a bad shout. Difference is Gasol and Sabonis look taller than Sengun.

I like him but there will be systematic difficulty in building around for max ceiling/effect.

[MoneyTalks41890]

Sengun in his third season is on the jokic trajectory. Who knows how good he’ll be, it’s too early to say.

Even jokic wasn’t jokic until three or four years ago.

Sengun is shooting 29.7% from 3 this year, 28% on career. Jokic has never been under 30%.

Sengun is 69.9% (nice) from the FT line this season, 70.8% career. Jokic has never been under 80%.

The Jokic comp is, imo, major cope.

[Johnny Firpo]

I think peak Chet's impact is just going to be much higher. He could be an all-defensive team level Dirk for all we know. I just don't see that defensive impact for Sengun, ever, and he'll never be as good as Jokic on offense. No one is. Like the kid, but I would comfortably take Chet.

[Johnny Firpo]

Sengun in his third season is on the jokic trajectory. Who knows how good he’ll be, it’s too early to say.

Even jokic wasn’t jokic until three or four years ago.

Joker dominated the advanced stats by his third year. I remember him REGULARLY being in the top 10 in every advanced stats, way before he was in anyone's actual top 10.