How Unreliable is the 'Eye-Test' for NBA analysis?

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How much do you rely on the Eye Test?

Do you use the Eye-Test for the majority of your analysis?
33
38%
Do you use the Eye-Test for some of your analysis?
49
57%
Do you use the Eye-Test for little to none of your analysis?
4
5%
 
Total votes: 86

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Re: How Unreliable is the 'Eye-Test' for NBA analysis? 

Post#41 » by cupcakesnake » Tue Mar 12, 2024 2:46 pm

hardenASG13 wrote:I used to be an OKC fan, and remember arguing for years with basically the whole OKC board, who knocked my "eye test" saying playing Andre Roberson 30 minutes a game, when he couldn't shoot or dribble a basketball, was crazy. Especially next to KD and Westbrook. I was mocked for saying things like it was killing the spacing, and that shooting role players are what that and every team needed. They gave a bunch of lineup stats, said all I cared about was "pointzz" and didn't know what I was seeing. Said guys like Jerami Grant were scrubs because of percentages. Now they don't let me post there and aren't willing to discuss it, although it certainly seems like the complete direction the league has gone. But the stats didn't agree. I wonder why more contending teams aren't playing bums like Roberson 30mpg anymore in the corner next to their superstar creators? Don't they see the lineup numbers and how important individual perimeter defense is, in a league that is forced to switch almost every perimeter screen haha.

Those that just post stats and spend hours compiling them are often just trying to look smart, with no ability to understand what they are watching. Many here also put way too much into regular season stats, when it's quite clear that the playoffs are a whole different beast. You need an eye test to see what players and concepts will work in the playoffs, when the defense knows exactly what you are running and how to take it away.


I'm not sure why you think this point is conclusive. Andre Roberson types not playing in 2024 isn't a definite argument agaisnt Andre Roberson's value in 2017 (the only year he played 30mpg). Yes, of course, 2-way players are more valuable than 1-way players, but if your argument was that OKC should play an offense only guy (Dion Waiters or Anthony Morrow) way bigger minutes than Roberson...I do think you were wrong about that.

Andre Roberson had an absolutely elite skill set on defense. For all the handwringing over him, there's actually only 1 year that Roberson played real minutes (22.2mpg) on a healthy KD/Russ team (2016). The year before, KD was out injured, the year after, KD was gone, and before all of this Roberson wasn't a rotation player.

So his one real year where this was a question (2016)...OKC won 59 games, had a top 6 offense and a top 6 defense, went to the Western Conference Finals where they took the 73-win Warriors to 7 games. I'm sure there were lots of possessions where Andre Roberson couldn't do anything on offense that had your eye-test screaming. But how was your eye-test on the other end where Roberson was doing all the perimeter heavy lifting as the best defender on a top 6 defense.

Dion Waiters played more minutes than Roberson (though in the playoffs Waiters minutes came down and Roberson's came up) and both of them got tons of minutes with KD/Russ. With Roberson (no Waiters), the team offense was very good and the team defense was elite. With Waiters (no Roberson), the team offense would become super elite, but the defense would go in the tank.

Forget the numbers though, I question your eye test analysis since you're basically saying you only watch one side of the ball. Waiters (and Morrow) were bad defenders. There was a real cost to playing them. There was a real cost to playing Roberson too, but are you saying you can't see the benefit of playing a multi-positional giant perimeter defender who can also protect the rim?
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Re: How Unreliable is the 'Eye-Test' for NBA analysis? 

Post#42 » by KembaWalker » Tue Mar 12, 2024 2:49 pm

No more or less unreliable than someone misapplying stats and metrics. The MJ Giddey thread for blatant trolling example but it happens frequently in more nuanced ways
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Re: How Unreliable is the 'Eye-Test' for NBA analysis? 

Post#43 » by SlovenianDragon » Tue Mar 12, 2024 3:00 pm

The eye test is great!!! There were some suns fans that you could tell just looked at box scores because they thought ayton was good.... They would be like wow what a great game by ayton he had 18/12! But if you watched the game Ayton was a giant piece of garbage....

Also on the flip side their will be night where a guys box score doesnt look amazing... But if you watch the game they did everything right and actually had a good game.

Watching games MATTERS...

If You had one scout just look at box scores and advanced stats and never watch a game over the course of 82 games...

And one scout who watched the player for all 82 games and never looked at box scores or advanced stats...

The guy who watched the games is going to have a much much much better feel and understanding of the player...

Hate to say it but the eye-test wins and its not even close....

Stats are nice but stats need context... Watching the games provides the context needed for the stats...

Seems like pretty basic stuff...
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Re: How Unreliable is the 'Eye-Test' for NBA analysis? 

Post#44 » by Marrrcuss » Tue Mar 12, 2024 3:01 pm

KembaWalker wrote:No more or less unreliable than someone misapplying stats and metrics. The MJ Giddey thread for blatant trolling example but it happens frequently in more nuanced ways

Says a guy with MJ as his signature.

The eye test is skewed by the audio experience, as well as personal feelings.

Listen to a game with the sound down and you will have a totally different opinion as most who listened to the telecast.

I noticed how much different networks treat college bball games than NBA games. Its such a huge difference. The disparity is akin to how they treat certain NBA players when they hit shots versus others. Some players get 3-4 replays for every shot they hit.
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Re: How Unreliable is the 'Eye-Test' for NBA analysis? 

Post#45 » by YogurtProducer » Tue Mar 12, 2024 3:09 pm

cupcakesnake wrote:
hardenASG13 wrote:I used to be an OKC fan, and remember arguing for years with basically the whole OKC board, who knocked my "eye test" saying playing Andre Roberson 30 minutes a game, when he couldn't shoot or dribble a basketball, was crazy. Especially next to KD and Westbrook. I was mocked for saying things like it was killing the spacing, and that shooting role players are what that and every team needed. They gave a bunch of lineup stats, said all I cared about was "pointzz" and didn't know what I was seeing. Said guys like Jerami Grant were scrubs because of percentages. Now they don't let me post there and aren't willing to discuss it, although it certainly seems like the complete direction the league has gone. But the stats didn't agree. I wonder why more contending teams aren't playing bums like Roberson 30mpg anymore in the corner next to their superstar creators? Don't they see the lineup numbers and how important individual perimeter defense is, in a league that is forced to switch almost every perimeter screen haha.

Those that just post stats and spend hours compiling them are often just trying to look smart, with no ability to understand what they are watching. Many here also put way too much into regular season stats, when it's quite clear that the playoffs are a whole different beast. You need an eye test to see what players and concepts will work in the playoffs, when the defense knows exactly what you are running and how to take it away.


I'm not sure why you think this point is conclusive. Andre Roberson types not playing in 2024 isn't a definite argument agaisnt Andre Roberson's value in 2017 (the only year he played 30mpg). Yes, of course, 2-way players are more valuable than 1-way players, but if your argument was that OKC should play an offense only guy (Dion Waiters or Anthony Morrow) way bigger minutes than Roberson...I do think you were wrong about that.

Andre Roberson had an absolutely elite skill set on defense. For all the handwringing over him, there's actually only 1 year that Roberson played real minutes (22.2mpg) on a healthy KD/Russ team (2016). The year before, KD was out injured, the year after, KD was gone, and before all of this Roberson wasn't a rotation player.

So his one real year where this was a question (2016)...OKC won 59 games, had a top 6 offense and a top 6 defense, went to the Western Conference Finals where they took the 73-win Warriors to 7 games. I'm sure there were lots of possessions where Andre Roberson couldn't do anything on offense that had your eye-test screaming. But how was your eye-test on the other end where Roberson was doing all the perimeter heavy lifting as the best defender on a top 6 defense.

Dion Waiters played more minutes than Roberson (though in the playoffs Waiters minutes came down and Roberson's came up) and both of them got tons of minutes with KD/Russ. With Roberson (no Waiters), the team offense was very good and the team defense was elite. With Waiters (no Roberson), the team offense would become super elite, but the defense would go in the tank.

Forget the numbers though, I question your eye test analysis since you're basically saying you only watch one side of the ball. Waiters (and Morrow) were bad defenders. There was a real cost to playing them. There was a real cost to playing Roberson too, but are you saying you can't see the benefit of playing a multi-positional giant perimeter defender who can also protect the rim?


I wonder why more contending teams aren't playing bums like Roberson 30mpg anymore in the corner next to their superstar creators?
I mean, the simple answer is there are not a lot of guys who are as good defensively as Andre Roberson, nor is there many teams that have guys as good as MVP KD and MVP Westbrook.
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Re: How Unreliable is the 'Eye-Test' for NBA analysis? 

Post#46 » by brackdan70 » Tue Mar 12, 2024 3:23 pm

Unbiased eye test by someone who truly understands what kind of basketball leads to winning is very reliable. Nobody here is that guy though.
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Re: How Unreliable is the 'Eye-Test' for NBA analysis? 

Post#47 » by SlovenianDragon » Tue Mar 12, 2024 3:27 pm

I also think one of the funniest things when it comes to this is sports betting....

If you watch the games and know all the players all you need to see is an injury report and you can form your opinion...

But then there are these nerds out there with all their stats and spreadsheets and computer calculations that are wrong 80% of the time... :lol:

Watch the games folks... Knowledge is power...and in this case money....
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Re: How Unreliable is the 'Eye-Test' for NBA analysis? 

Post#48 » by dhsilv2 » Tue Mar 12, 2024 3:32 pm

SlovenianDragon wrote:The eye test is great!!! There were some suns fans that you could tell just looked at box scores because they thought ayton was good.... They would be like wow what a great game by ayton he had 18/12! But if you watched the game Ayton was a giant piece of garbage....

Also on the flip side their will be night where a guys box score doesnt look amazing... But if you watch the game they did everything right and actually had a good game.

Watching games MATTERS...

If You had one scout just look at box scores and advanced stats and never watch a game over the course of 82 games...

And one scout who watched the player for all 82 games and never looked at box scores or advanced stats...

The guy who watched the games is going to have a much much much better feel and understanding of the player...

Hate to say it but the eye-test wins and its not even close....

Stats are nice but stats need context... Watching the games provides the context needed for the stats...

Seems like pretty basic stuff...


That scout MIGHT know that one team better. What about the other 29 teams?

Also, you realize the stats literally are play by play, right?

This won't be easy to read, but this is the "BASIC" stats someone would look at as a stats only analyist. From there, sports vue would break down every set, where every shot was exactly, it would then be data mapped visually on a court, you'd have play types, offensive and defensive sets, etc. You'd have location of defenders from shots, the shot types, you'd know how many times a guy went left vs right on drives.

Spoiler:
Time Charlotte Score Detroit
12:00.0 Jump ball: N. Richards vs. J. Duren (G. Williams gains possession)
11:37.0 M. Bridges misses 3-pt jump shot from 28 ft 0-0
11:33.0 0-0 Defensive rebound by S. Fontecchio
11:20.0 0-2 +2 S. Fontecchio makes 2-pt jump shot from 4 ft (assist by C. Cunningham)
11:00.0 M. Bridges misses 2-pt jump shot from 7 ft 0-2
10:57.0 Offensive rebound by M. Bridges 0-2
10:55.0 M. Bridges makes 2-pt jump shot from 14 ft +2 2-2
10:45.0 2-2 Turnover by J. Duren (lost ball; steal by V. Micić)
10:40.0 Turnover by G. Williams (step out of bounds) 2-2
10:28.0 2-2 Shooting foul by G. Williams (drawn by J. Duren)
10:28.0 2-3 +1 J. Duren makes free throw 1 of 2
10:28.0 2-4 +1 J. Duren makes free throw 2 of 2
10:15.0 G. Williams makes 2-pt layup from 3 ft (assist by B. Miller) +2 4-4
10:02.0 4-4 I. Stewart misses 3-pt jump shot from 24 ft
9:59.0 4-4 Offensive rebound by J. Duren
9:55.0 4-4 Turnover by J. Duren (bad pass; steal by G. Williams)
9:52.0 V. Micić misses 2-pt jump shot from 12 ft 4-4
9:49.0 4-4 Defensive rebound by C. Cunningham
9:47.0 4-4 Shooting foul by B. Miller (drawn by J. Ivey)
9:47.0 4-5 +1 J. Ivey makes free throw 1 of 2
9:47.0 4-6 +1 J. Ivey makes free throw 2 of 2
9:31.0 G. Williams misses 2-pt layup from 5 ft 4-6
9:28.0 Offensive rebound by N. Richards 4-6
9:26.0 N. Richards makes 2-pt layup from 3 ft +2 6-6
9:18.0 6-6 C. Cunningham misses 2-pt layup from 3 ft
9:14.0 6-6 Offensive rebound by J. Duren
9:14.0 6-8 +2 J. Duren makes 2-pt dunk at rim
9:01.0 Turnover by V. Micić (lost ball; steal by C. Cunningham) 6-8
8:57.0 6-10 +2 C. Cunningham makes 2-pt layup from 3 ft
8:41.0 B. Miller makes 3-pt jump shot from 22 ft (assist by M. Bridges) +3 9-10
8:20.0 9-10 C. Cunningham misses 3-pt jump shot from 23 ft
8:16.0 Defensive rebound by N. Richards 9-10
7:59.0 G. Williams makes 3-pt jump shot from 23 ft (assist by V. Micić) +3 12-10
7:50.0 12-12 +2 C. Cunningham makes 2-pt jump shot from 13 ft (assist by J. Ivey)
7:50.0 12-12 Shooting foul by V. Micić (drawn by C. Cunningham)
7:50.0 12-13 +1 C. Cunningham makes free throw 1 of 1
7:36.0 N. Richards makes 2-pt dunk from 4 ft (assist by G. Williams) +2 14-13
7:20.0 14-13 I. Stewart misses 3-pt jump shot from 24 ft
7:18.0 Defensive rebound by Team 14-13
7:04.0 B. Miller misses 3-pt jump shot from 25 ft 14-13
7:01.0 14-13 Defensive rebound by I. Stewart
6:56.0 14-16 +3 I. Stewart makes 3-pt jump shot from 26 ft (assist by C. Cunningham)
6:35.0 14-16 Detroit full timeout
6:29.0 G. Williams misses 2-pt jump shot from 10 ft 14-16
6:27.0 14-16 Defensive rebound by I. Stewart
6:13.0 14-16 J. Ivey misses 3-pt jump shot from 27 ft
6:09.0 Defensive rebound by N. Richards 14-16
6:02.0 Personal foul by S. Fontecchio (drawn by M. Bridges) 14-16
6:02.0 J. Thor enters the game for G. Williams 14-16
5:53.0 J. Thor misses 3-pt jump shot from 24 ft 14-16
5:51.0 14-16 Defensive rebound by S. Fontecchio
5:45.0 14-18 +2 C. Cunningham makes 2-pt layup from 4 ft
5:22.0 B. Miller makes 3-pt jump shot from 25 ft (assist by J. Thor) +3 17-18
5:03.0 17-20 +2 J. Duren makes 2-pt layup from 3 ft (assist by S. Fontecchio)
4:51.0 J. Thor misses 2-pt layup from 5 ft (block by J. Duren) 17-20
4:48.0 17-20 Defensive rebound by S. Fontecchio
4:44.0 17-20 J. Duren misses 2-pt layup from 1 ft
4:41.0 Defensive rebound by J. Thor 17-20
4:29.0 Turnover by V. Micić (bad pass; steal by J. Ivey) 17-20
4:25.0 17-22 +2 J. Duren makes 2-pt dunk from 2 ft (assist by C. Cunningham)
4:12.0 B. Miller makes 2-pt jump shot from 6 ft +2 19-22
4:00.0 19-22 Shooting foul by J. Thor (drawn by I. Stewart)
4:00.0 19-23 +1 I. Stewart makes free throw 1 of 2
4:00.0 D. Bertāns enters the game for V. Micić 19-23
4:00.0 N. Smith enters the game for B. Miller 19-23
4:00.0 19-23 Q. Grimes enters the game for S. Fontecchio
4:00.0 19-23 M. Sasser enters the game for J. Ivey
4:00.0 19-24 +1 I. Stewart makes free throw 2 of 2
3:38.0 D. Bertāns misses 3-pt jump shot from 35 ft 19-24
3:34.0 19-24 Defensive rebound by M. Sasser
3:30.0 19-27 +3 C. Cunningham makes 3-pt jump shot from 22 ft (assist by Q. Grimes)
3:28.0 Charlotte full timeout 19-27
3:28.0 19-27 J. Wiseman enters the game for J. Duren
3:08.0 M. Bridges misses 3-pt jump shot from 27 ft 19-27
3:04.0 19-27 Defensive rebound by Q. Grimes
2:44.0 19-29 +2 C. Cunningham makes 2-pt layup from 5 ft
2:30.0 N. Smith misses 2-pt jump shot from 10 ft 19-29
2:27.0 19-29 Defensive rebound by I. Stewart
2:19.0 19-29 C. Cunningham misses 3-pt jump shot from 28 ft
2:17.0 19-29 Offensive rebound by Team
2:17.0 G. Williams enters the game for N. Richards 19-29
2:17.0 19-29 S. Fontecchio enters the game for C. Cunningham
2:17.0 19-29 E. Fournier enters the game for I. Stewart
2:05.0 19-29 Q. Grimes misses 3-pt jump shot from 25 ft
2:01.0 Defensive rebound by G. Williams 19-29
1:47.0 Turnover by G. Williams (lost ball; steal by Q. Grimes) 19-29
1:42.0 19-32 +3 E. Fournier makes 3-pt jump shot from 25 ft (assist by Q. Grimes)
1:16.0 M. Bridges makes 2-pt layup from 4 ft (assist by G. Williams) +2 21-32
1:05.0 21-34 +2 M. Sasser makes 2-pt jump shot from 13 ft (assist by J. Wiseman)
0:43.0 M. Bridges makes 2-pt layup from 3 ft +2 23-34
0:43.0 Shooting foul by M. Sasser (drawn by M. Bridges) 23-34
0:43.0 M. Bridges misses free throw 1 of 1 23-34
0:40.0 23-34 Defensive rebound by J. Wiseman
0:33.0 23-34 Turnover by M. Sasser (lost ball; steal by D. Bertāns)
0:21.0 G. Williams misses 3-pt jump shot from 26 ft 23-34
0:18.0 23-34 Defensive rebound by Q. Grimes
0:05.0 23-34 Q. Grimes misses 3-pt jump shot from 25 ft
0:02.0 Defensive rebound by J. Thor 23-34
0:00.0 N. Smith misses 3-pt jump shot from 57 ft 23-34
0:00.0 Offensive rebound by Team 23-34
0:00.0 End of 1st quarter
2nd Q
Time Charlotte Score Detroit
12:00.0 Start of 2nd quarter
11:47.0 23-34 Turnover by S. Fontecchio (bad pass)
11:38.0 Turnover by G. Williams (bad pass) 23-34
11:21.0 23-37 +3 S. Fontecchio makes 3-pt jump shot from 27 ft (assist by M. Sasser)
11:10.0 D. Bertāns makes 3-pt jump shot from 28 ft (assist by N. Smith) +3 26-37
11:10.0 Shooting foul by E. Fournier (drawn by D. Bertāns) 26-37
11:10.0 D. Bertāns makes free throw 1 of 1 +1 27-37
10:54.0 27-37 E. Fournier misses 3-pt jump shot from 25 ft
10:51.0 Defensive rebound by N. Smith 27-37
10:47.0 G. Williams misses 3-pt jump shot from 26 ft 27-37
10:46.0 27-37 Defensive rebound by Team
10:28.0 27-37 S. Fontecchio misses 3-pt jump shot from 25 ft
10:24.0 Defensive rebound by N. Smith 27-37
10:10.0 B. Miller makes 2-pt jump shot from 13 ft (assist by N. Richards) +2 29-37
9:55.0 29-39 +2 M. Sasser makes 2-pt jump shot from 7 ft
9:38.0 B. Miller misses 3-pt jump shot from 25 ft 29-39
9:35.0 Offensive rebound by N. Richards 29-39
9:25.0 Turnover by N. Smith (bad pass; steal by E. Fournier) 29-39
9:21.0 29-41 +2 Q. Grimes makes 2-pt dunk from 2 ft (assist by S. Fontecchio)
9:08.0 B. Miller misses 2-pt jump shot from 13 ft 29-41
9:05.0 29-41 Defensive rebound by S. Fontecchio
8:54.0 29-41 E. Fournier misses 3-pt jump shot from 26 ft
8:52.0 Defensive rebound by N. Richards 29-41
8:41.0 Turnover by G. Williams (bad pass; steal by E. Fournier) 29-41
8:37.0 29-41 Shooting foul by N. Smith (drawn by Q. Grimes)
8:37.0 29-42 +1 Q. Grimes makes free throw 1 of 2
8:37.0 M. Bridges enters the game for B. Miller 29-42
8:37.0 V. Micić enters the game for N. Smith 29-42
8:37.0 A. Pokusevski enters the game for G. Williams 29-42
8:37.0 29-42 J. Ivey enters the game for E. Fournier
8:37.0 29-43 +1 Q. Grimes makes free throw 2 of 2
8:23.0 M. Bridges misses 2-pt jump shot from 11 ft 29-43
8:23.0 29-43 Defensive rebound by Team
8:23.0 Loose ball foul by N. Richards (drawn by S. Fontecchio) 29-43
8:11.0 29-43 Q. Grimes misses 3-pt jump shot from 23 ft
8:07.0 Defensive rebound by V. Micić 29-43
8:02.0 M. Bridges misses 2-pt jump shot from 8 ft 29-43
7:59.0 Offensive rebound by N. Richards 29-43
7:59.0 N. Richards makes 2-pt hook shot from 4 ft +2 31-43
7:42.0 31-46 +3 M. Sasser makes 3-pt jump shot from 24 ft (assist by Q. Grimes)
7:31.0 Offensive foul by M. Bridges (drawn by M. Sasser) 31-46
7:31.0 Turnover by M. Bridges (offensive foul) 31-46
7:10.0 31-46 J. Ivey misses 2-pt jump shot from 8 ft (block by A. Pokusevski)
7:07.0 31-46 Offensive rebound by J. Ivey
7:05.0 31-48 +2 J. Ivey makes 2-pt jump shot from 10 ft
6:47.0 D. Bertāns misses 3-pt jump shot from 23 ft 31-48
6:44.0 31-48 Defensive rebound by J. Wiseman
6:39.0 31-48 Turnover by Q. Grimes (bad pass)
6:39.0 31-48 Detroit full timeout
6:39.0 B. Miller enters the game for D. Bertāns 31-48
6:39.0 31-48 J. Duren enters the game for S. Fontecchio
6:39.0 31-48 I. Stewart enters the game for J. Wiseman
6:26.0 N. Richards makes 2-pt dunk from 2 ft (assist by V. Micić) +2 33-48
6:10.0 33-48 Turnover by M. Sasser (out of bounds lost ball)
5:46.0 V. Micić makes 3-pt jump shot from 25 ft (assist by N. Richards) +3 36-48
5:23.0 36-48 Q. Grimes misses 3-pt jump shot from 25 ft
5:23.0 Defensive rebound by B. Miller 36-48
5:18.0 A. Pokusevski makes 2-pt layup from 1 ft (assist by B. Miller) +2 38-48
5:18.0 38-48 Detroit full timeout
5:18.0 G. Williams enters the game for N. Richards 38-48
5:18.0 38-48 C. Cunningham enters the game for Q. Grimes
5:18.0 38-48 S. Fontecchio enters the game for M. Sasser
5:06.0 38-48 J. Duren misses 2-pt dunk from 2 ft
5:03.0 Defensive rebound by B. Miller 38-48
4:56.0 A. Pokusevski misses 2-pt jump shot from 8 ft 38-48
4:53.0 38-48 Defensive rebound by J. Duren
4:45.0 38-48 C. Cunningham misses 3-pt jump shot from 24 ft
4:42.0 Defensive rebound by G. Williams 38-48
4:25.0 V. Micić makes 3-pt jump shot from 26 ft (assist by A. Pokusevski) +3 41-48
4:15.0 41-48 Shooting foul by G. Williams (drawn by J. Duren)
4:15.0 41-48 J. Duren misses free throw 1 of 2
4:15.0 41-48 Offensive rebound by Team
4:15.0 41-48 J. Duren misses free throw 2 of 2
4:12.0 Defensive rebound by M. Bridges 41-48
4:02.0 B. Miller makes 3-pt jump shot from 26 ft (assist by V. Micić) +3 44-48
3:47.0 44-48 S. Fontecchio misses 3-pt jump shot from 26 ft
3:44.0 Defensive rebound by G. Williams 44-48
3:41.0 A. Pokusevski misses 2-pt layup from 5 ft 44-48
3:36.0 44-48 Defensive rebound by J. Duren
3:33.0 44-48 Turnover by J. Ivey (lost ball; steal by B. Miller)
3:17.0 G. Williams makes 2-pt hook shot from 4 ft (assist by V. Micić) +2 46-48
3:02.0 46-48 J. Ivey misses 3-pt jump shot from 25 ft
2:55.0 Defensive rebound by V. Micić 46-48
2:49.0 B. Miller misses 3-pt jump shot from 24 ft 46-48
2:44.0 46-48 Defensive rebound by S. Fontecchio
2:27.0 46-51 +3 S. Fontecchio makes 3-pt jump shot from 27 ft (assist by C. Cunningham)
2:03.0 B. Miller misses 2-pt jump shot from 13 ft (block by S. Fontecchio) 46-51
1:59.0 46-51 Defensive rebound by C. Cunningham
1:51.0 46-53 +2 I. Stewart makes 2-pt layup from 1 ft (assist by C. Cunningham)
1:37.0 V. Micić misses 3-pt jump shot from 25 ft 46-53
1:37.0 46-53 Defensive rebound by I. Stewart
1:21.0 46-53 J. Ivey misses 3-pt jump shot from 23 ft
1:17.0 Defensive rebound by B. Miller 46-53
1:13.0 Personal foul by C. Cunningham (drawn by B. Miller) 46-53
1:13.0 D. Bertāns enters the game for A. Pokusevski 46-53
1:13.0 N. Richards enters the game for G. Williams 46-53
0:56.0 M. Bridges misses 3-pt jump shot from 29 ft 46-53
0:53.0 46-53 Defensive rebound by C. Cunningham
0:45.0 Violation by Team (kicked ball) 46-53
0:33.0 46-53 I. Stewart misses 3-pt jump shot from 22 ft
0:30.0 Defensive rebound by N. Richards 46-53
0:20.0 N. Richards misses 2-pt layup from 6 ft (block by I. Stewart) 46-53
0:15.0 Offensive rebound by V. Micić 46-53
0:14.0 M. Bridges misses 3-pt jump shot from 24 ft 46-53
0:11.0 46-53 Defensive rebound by S. Fontecchio
0:01.0 46-53 C. Cunningham misses 2-pt jump shot from 12 ft
0:01.0 46-53 Offensive rebound by Team
0:00.0 End of 2nd quarter
3rd Q
Time Charlotte Score Detroit
12:00.0 Start of 3rd quarter
11:49.0 46-53 C. Cunningham misses 2-pt layup from 4 ft
11:48.0 46-53 Offensive rebound by Team
11:42.0 46-56 +3 I. Stewart makes 3-pt jump shot from 25 ft (assist by J. Ivey)
11:21.0 B. Miller misses 3-pt jump shot from 26 ft 46-56
11:18.0 46-56 Defensive rebound by S. Fontecchio
11:13.0 46-58 +2 J. Ivey makes 2-pt layup from 2 ft
11:00.0 M. Bridges misses 2-pt jump shot from 6 ft 46-58
11:00.0 46-58 Defensive rebound by J. Duren
10:45.0 46-60 +2 J. Duren makes 2-pt dunk from 3 ft (assist by C. Cunningham)
10:23.0 M. Bridges misses 2-pt jump shot from 8 ft 46-60
10:17.0 46-60 Defensive rebound by J. Duren
10:07.0 46-60 J. Ivey misses 3-pt jump shot from 27 ft
10:04.0 Defensive rebound by N. Richards 46-60
9:52.0 B. Miller makes 2-pt jump shot from 3 ft +2 48-60
9:51.0 Technical foul by B. Miller 48-60
9:51.0 48-61 +1 C. Cunningham makes technical free throw
9:33.0 48-61 I. Stewart misses 3-pt jump shot from 23 ft
9:31.0 48-61 Offensive rebound by Team
9:26.0 48-63 +2 S. Fontecchio makes 2-pt layup from 4 ft (assist by J. Duren)
9:13.0 M. Bridges makes 2-pt dunk from 1 ft (assist by B. Miller) +2 50-63
8:57.0 50-65 +2 I. Stewart makes 2-pt layup from 7 ft (assist by S. Fontecchio)
8:40.0 N. Richards misses 2-pt jump shot from 14 ft 50-65
8:37.0 50-65 Defensive rebound by I. Stewart
8:31.0 50-65 Turnover by C. Cunningham (lost ball; steal by G. Williams)
8:30.0 Personal foul by S. Fontecchio (drawn by G. Williams) 50-65
8:16.0 Turnover by N. Richards (bad pass; steal by S. Fontecchio) 50-65
8:03.0 50-68 +3 S. Fontecchio makes 3-pt jump shot from 23 ft (assist by J. Ivey)
8:02.0 Charlotte full timeout 50-68
7:48.0 M. Bridges makes 3-pt jump shot from 26 ft (assist by V. Micić) +3 53-68
7:28.0 53-68 J. Ivey misses 2-pt jump shot from 5 ft
7:27.0 53-68 Offensive rebound by J. Duren
7:26.0 53-70 +2 J. Duren makes 2-pt dunk at rim
7:09.0 Shooting foul by S. Fontecchio (drawn by M. Bridges) 53-70
7:09.0 M. Bridges misses free throw 1 of 2 53-70
7:09.0 Offensive rebound by Team 53-70
7:09.0 M. Bridges makes free throw 2 of 2 +1 54-70
6:53.0 54-70 I. Stewart misses 3-pt jump shot from 27 ft
6:49.0 Defensive rebound by N. Richards 54-70
6:44.0 M. Bridges misses 2-pt jump shot from 23 ft 54-70
6:41.0 54-70 Defensive rebound by J. Duren
6:33.0 54-70 J. Ivey misses 3-pt jump shot from 27 ft
6:30.0 Defensive rebound by M. Bridges 54-70
6:20.0 Shooting foul by J. Duren (drawn by G. Williams) 54-70
6:20.0 G. Williams makes free throw 1 of 2 +1 55-70
6:20.0 G. Williams makes free throw 2 of 2 +1 56-70
6:03.0 56-72 +2 J. Ivey makes 2-pt layup from 4 ft
6:03.0 J. Thor enters the game for G. Williams 56-72
5:52.0 B. Miller makes 2-pt jump shot from 15 ft (assist by V. Micić) +2 58-72
5:37.0 58-72 Turnover by J. Duren (out of bounds lost ball)
5:26.0 Personal foul by S. Fontecchio (drawn by B. Miller) 58-72
5:26.0 58-72 Q. Grimes enters the game for S. Fontecchio
5:13.0 M. Bridges misses 2-pt hook shot from 9 ft 58-72
5:09.0 58-72 Defensive rebound by J. Ivey
5:06.0 58-74 +2 J. Ivey makes 2-pt layup from 2 ft
4:50.0 V. Micić misses 2-pt jump shot from 12 ft 58-74
4:45.0 Offensive rebound by B. Miller 58-74
4:41.0 Shooting foul by I. Stewart (drawn by M. Bridges) 58-74
4:41.0 M. Bridges makes free throw 1 of 2 +1 59-74
4:41.0 M. Bridges makes free throw 2 of 2 +1 60-74
4:25.0 60-76 +2 J. Duren makes 2-pt dunk from 3 ft (assist by C. Cunningham)
4:03.0 M. Bridges makes 2-pt layup from 4 ft (assist by B. Miller) +2 62-76
3:55.0 62-76 J. Ivey misses 3-pt jump shot from 26 ft
3:52.0 Defensive rebound by M. Bridges 62-76
3:45.0 B. Miller misses 3-pt jump shot from 26 ft 62-76
3:43.0 62-76 Defensive rebound by C. Cunningham
3:33.0 62-76 Turnover by C. Cunningham (traveling)
3:33.0 D. Bertāns enters the game for V. Micić 62-76
3:33.0 N. Smith enters the game for B. Miller 62-76
3:33.0 62-76 M. Sasser enters the game for J. Duren
3:33.0 62-76 J. Wiseman enters the game for J. Ivey
3:21.0 M. Bridges misses 3-pt jump shot from 27 ft 62-76
3:16.0 62-76 Defensive rebound by Q. Grimes
3:06.0 62-76 Q. Grimes misses 3-pt jump shot from 25 ft
3:03.0 Defensive rebound by M. Bridges 62-76
2:52.0 M. Bridges misses 2-pt layup from 5 ft (block by J. Wiseman) 62-76
2:48.0 62-76 Defensive rebound by M. Sasser
2:26.0 62-79 +3 C. Cunningham makes 3-pt jump shot from 25 ft (assist by M. Sasser)
2:12.0 J. Thor misses 3-pt jump shot from 23 ft 62-79
2:08.0 62-79 Defensive rebound by I. Stewart
2:03.0 62-79 C. Cunningham misses 3-pt jump shot from 23 ft
2:00.0 Defensive rebound by N. Richards 62-79
1:52.0 D. Bertāns makes 3-pt jump shot from 25 ft (assist by M. Bridges) +3 65-79
1:32.0 65-79 C. Cunningham misses 3-pt jump shot from 24 ft
1:28.0 65-79 Offensive rebound by Q. Grimes
1:24.0 65-79 Shooting foul by D. Bertāns (drawn by J. Wiseman)
1:24.0 65-79 Detroit full timeout
1:24.0 G. Williams enters the game for N. Richards 65-79
1:24.0 65-79 E. Fournier enters the game for C. Cunningham
1:24.0 65-79 S. Umude enters the game for I. Stewart
1:24.0 65-80 +1 J. Wiseman makes free throw 1 of 2
1:24.0 65-81 +1 J. Wiseman makes free throw 2 of 2
1:08.0 N. Smith misses 3-pt jump shot from 22 ft 65-81
1:06.0 65-81 Defensive rebound by J. Wiseman
0:54.0 65-81 Personal foul by N. Smith (drawn by M. Sasser)
0:54.0 Charlotte full timeout 65-81
0:54.0 Instant Replay (Challenge: Stands) 65-81
0:54.0 65-82 +1 M. Sasser makes free throw 1 of 2
0:54.0 65-83 +1 M. Sasser makes free throw 2 of 2
0:38.0 D. Bertāns misses 2-pt jump shot from 19 ft 65-83
0:35.0 65-83 Defensive rebound by E. Fournier
0:29.0 65-83 Turnover by M. Sasser (bad pass; steal by M. Bridges)
0:25.0 J. Thor makes 2-pt layup from 1 ft (assist by M. Bridges) +2 67-83
0:08.0 67-86 +3 S. Umude makes 3-pt jump shot from 23 ft (assist by E. Fournier)
0:01.0 G. Williams misses 3-pt jump shot from 27 ft 67-86
0:01.0 67-86 Defensive rebound by J. Wiseman
0:00.0 End of 3rd quarter
4th Q
Time Charlotte Score Detroit
12:00.0 Start of 4th quarter
11:47.0 G. Williams makes 2-pt layup from 2 ft (assist by B. Miller) +2 69-86
11:47.0 Shooting foul by Q. Grimes (drawn by G. Williams) 69-86
11:47.0 G. Williams makes free throw 1 of 1 +1 70-86
11:35.0 70-86 Shooting foul by B. Miller (drawn by Q. Grimes)
11:35.0 70-87 +1 Q. Grimes makes free throw 1 of 2
11:35.0 70-88 +1 Q. Grimes makes free throw 2 of 2
11:23.0 G. Williams makes 2-pt layup from 2 ft (assist by B. Miller) +2 72-88
11:03.0 72-88 Q. Grimes misses 2-pt jump shot from 19 ft
11:01.0 Defensive rebound by Team 72-88
11:01.0 72-88 Loose ball foul by J. Wiseman (drawn by N. Richards)
10:54.0 Personal foul by S. Umude (drawn by G. Williams) 72-88
10:51.0 Flagrant foul type 1 by Q. Grimes (drawn by B. Miller) 72-88
10:51.0 Instant Replay (Request: Ruling Stands) 72-88
10:51.0 B. Miller misses flagrant free throw 1 of 3 72-88
10:51.0 Offensive rebound by Team 72-88
10:51.0 B. Miller makes flagrant free throw 2 of 3 +1 73-88
10:51.0 B. Miller makes flagrant free throw 3 of 3 +1 74-88
10:42.0 B. Miller misses 3-pt jump shot from 24 ft 74-88
10:39.0 74-88 Defensive rebound by S. Umude
10:30.0 74-90 +2 J. Wiseman makes 2-pt dunk from 4 ft (assist by M. Sasser)
10:13.0 G. Williams misses 2-pt jump shot from 11 ft 74-90
10:11.0 74-90 Defensive rebound by S. Umude
9:51.0 74-90 M. Sasser misses 2-pt jump shot from 10 ft
9:48.0 74-90 Offensive rebound by J. Wiseman
9:47.0 74-90 J. Wiseman misses 2-pt layup from 4 ft
9:45.0 Defensive rebound by G. Williams 74-90
9:38.0 N. Smith misses 2-pt jump shot from 9 ft 74-90
9:37.0 Offensive rebound by N. Richards 74-90
9:37.0 Shooting foul by J. Wiseman (drawn by N. Richards) 74-90
9:37.0 N. Richards misses free throw 1 of 2 74-90
9:37.0 Offensive rebound by Team 74-90
9:37.0 74-90 S. Fontecchio enters the game for S. Umude
9:37.0 N. Richards misses free throw 2 of 2 74-90
9:37.0 Offensive rebound by Team 74-90
9:37.0 74-90 Loose ball foul by E. Fournier (drawn by G. Williams)
9:37.0 G. Williams misses free throw 1 of 2 74-90
9:37.0 Offensive rebound by Team 74-90
9:37.0 G. Williams makes free throw 2 of 2 +1 75-90
9:26.0 75-92 +2 J. Wiseman makes 2-pt dunk from 5 ft (assist by M. Sasser)
9:12.0 N. Richards makes 2-pt hook shot from 5 ft (assist by B. Miller) +2 77-92
8:46.0 77-94 +2 J. Wiseman makes 2-pt dunk from 2 ft (assist by E. Fournier)
8:40.0 D. Bertāns misses 3-pt jump shot from 27 ft 77-94
8:37.0 77-94 Defensive rebound by J. Wiseman
8:27.0 77-94 Turnover by S. Fontecchio (bad pass; steal by D. Bertāns)
8:18.0 B. Miller misses 3-pt jump shot from 23 ft 77-94
8:14.0 77-94 Defensive rebound by J. Wiseman
8:06.0 77-94 E. Fournier misses 3-pt jump shot from 26 ft
8:02.0 Defensive rebound by N. Richards 77-94
7:48.0 G. Williams makes 3-pt jump shot from 27 ft (assist by D. Bertāns) +3 80-94
7:48.0 80-94 Detroit full timeout
7:48.0 M. Bridges enters the game for B. Miller 80-94
7:48.0 V. Micić enters the game for N. Smith 80-94
7:48.0 A. Pokusevski enters the game for G. Williams 80-94
7:48.0 80-94 J. Ivey enters the game for E. Fournier
7:33.0 80-94 S. Fontecchio misses 3-pt jump shot from 26 ft
7:29.0 Defensive rebound by V. Micić 80-94
7:21.0 V. Micić makes 3-pt jump shot from 27 ft +3 83-94
7:06.0 83-94 Q. Grimes misses 3-pt jump shot from 23 ft
7:03.0 83-94 Offensive rebound by J. Wiseman
7:01.0 83-94 J. Wiseman misses 2-pt hook shot from 8 ft
6:59.0 83-94 Offensive rebound by J. Wiseman
6:57.0 83-96 +2 J. Wiseman makes 2-pt hook shot from 5 ft
6:42.0 M. Bridges misses 2-pt layup from 5 ft 83-96
6:41.0 Offensive rebound by Team 83-96
6:41.0 83-96 C. Cunningham enters the game for Q. Grimes
6:41.0 83-96 J. Duren enters the game for M. Sasser
6:41.0 83-96 I. Stewart enters the game for J. Wiseman
6:41.0 Away from play foul by I. Stewart (drawn by D. Bertāns) 83-96
6:41.0 D. Bertāns misses free throw 1 of 1 83-96
6:41.0 Offensive rebound by Team 83-96
6:36.0 D. Bertāns misses 3-pt jump shot from 25 ft 83-96
6:33.0 83-96 Defensive rebound by C. Cunningham
6:20.0 83-98 +2 S. Fontecchio makes 2-pt jump shot from 21 ft
6:00.0 M. Bridges makes 2-pt layup from 3 ft (assist by D. Bertāns) +2 85-98
5:40.0 85-98 S. Fontecchio misses 3-pt jump shot from 27 ft
5:38.0 Defensive rebound by N. Richards 85-98
5:28.0 A. Pokusevski misses 2-pt jump shot from 9 ft 85-98
5:26.0 Offensive rebound by A. Pokusevski 85-98
5:24.0 M. Bridges makes 3-pt jump shot from 22 ft (assist by A. Pokusevski) +3 88-98
5:08.0 88-98 J. Ivey misses 2-pt jump shot from 8 ft
5:01.0 Defensive rebound by M. Bridges 88-98
4:58.0 M. Bridges makes 3-pt jump shot from 25 ft (assist by V. Micić) +3 91-98
4:38.0 91-98 Shooting foul by V. Micić (drawn by C. Cunningham)
4:38.0 91-99 +1 C. Cunningham makes free throw 1 of 2
4:38.0 B. Miller enters the game for A. Pokusevski 91-99
4:38.0 G. Williams enters the game for N. Richards 91-99
4:38.0 91-100 +1 C. Cunningham makes free throw 2 of 2
4:32.0 Personal foul by J. Duren (drawn by G. Williams) 91-100
4:32.0 G. Williams makes free throw 1 of 2 +1 92-100
4:32.0 G. Williams makes free throw 2 of 2 +1 93-100
4:18.0 93-102 +2 C. Cunningham makes 2-pt layup from 7 ft
4:09.0 M. Bridges misses 3-pt jump shot from 25 ft 93-102
4:09.0 Offensive rebound by D. Bertāns 93-102
3:57.0 Turnover by D. Bertāns (bad pass; steal by S. Fontecchio) 93-102
3:45.0 93-104 +2 C. Cunningham makes 2-pt jump shot from 16 ft
3:45.0 Charlotte full timeout 93-104
3:45.0 Away from play foul by J. Duren (drawn by V. Micić) 93-104
3:45.0 Instant Replay (Request: Stands) 93-104
3:45.0 V. Micić makes free throw 1 of 2 +1 94-104
3:45.0 V. Micić makes free throw 2 of 2 +1 95-104
3:29.0 95-106 +2 J. Duren makes 2-pt dunk from 2 ft (assist by C. Cunningham)
3:17.0 Personal foul by J. Ivey (drawn by G. Williams) 95-106
3:17.0 G. Williams makes free throw 1 of 2 +1 96-106
3:17.0 G. Williams makes free throw 2 of 2 +1 97-106
3:01.0 97-106 Shooting foul by V. Micić (drawn by J. Ivey)
3:01.0 97-107 +1 J. Ivey makes free throw 1 of 2
3:01.0 97-108 +1 J. Ivey makes free throw 2 of 2
2:46.0 D. Bertāns misses 3-pt jump shot from 23 ft 97-108
2:43.0 97-108 Defensive rebound by J. Duren
2:21.0 97-108 C. Cunningham misses 3-pt jump shot from 32 ft
2:18.0 Defensive rebound by B. Miller 97-108
2:11.0 B. Miller misses 2-pt jump shot from 7 ft 97-108
2:09.0 97-108 Defensive rebound by C. Cunningham
1:54.0 97-108 C. Cunningham misses 2-pt layup from 4 ft
1:54.0 97-108 Offensive rebound by J. Duren
1:53.0 97-110 +2 J. Duren makes 2-pt layup at rim
1:52.0 Charlotte full timeout 97-110
1:45.0 V. Micić misses 3-pt jump shot from 25 ft 97-110
1:40.0 97-110 Defensive rebound by S. Fontecchio
1:36.0 97-110 Personal foul by G. Williams (drawn by S. Fontecchio)
1:22.0 97-110 C. Cunningham misses 3-pt jump shot from 25 ft (block by B. Miller)
1:18.0 Defensive rebound by M. Bridges 97-110
1:18.0 Turnover by M. Bridges (lost ball; steal by J. Duren) 97-110
1:18.0 97-110 Personal foul by G. Williams (drawn by J. Duren)
1:18.0 97-111 +1 J. Duren makes free throw 1 of 2
1:18.0 97-112 +1 J. Duren makes free throw 2 of 2
1:14.0 Offensive foul by G. Williams (drawn by J. Ivey) 97-112
1:14.0 Turnover by G. Williams (offensive foul) 97-112
0:52.0 97-112 C. Cunningham misses 3-pt jump shot from 26 ft
0:48.0 Defensive rebound by V. Micić 97-112
0:44.0 G. Williams misses 2-pt layup from 4 ft (block by J. Ivey) 97-112
0:40.0 97-112 Defensive rebound by J. Ivey
0:37.0 97-114 +2 S. Fontecchio makes 2-pt layup from 1 ft (assist by J. Ivey)
0:12.0 Turnover by Team (shot clock) 97-114
0:00.0 End of 4th quarter
dhsilv2
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Re: How Unreliable is the 'Eye-Test' for NBA analysis? 

Post#49 » by dhsilv2 » Tue Mar 12, 2024 3:34 pm

YogurtProducer wrote:
cupcakesnake wrote:
hardenASG13 wrote:I used to be an OKC fan, and remember arguing for years with basically the whole OKC board, who knocked my "eye test" saying playing Andre Roberson 30 minutes a game, when he couldn't shoot or dribble a basketball, was crazy. Especially next to KD and Westbrook. I was mocked for saying things like it was killing the spacing, and that shooting role players are what that and every team needed. They gave a bunch of lineup stats, said all I cared about was "pointzz" and didn't know what I was seeing. Said guys like Jerami Grant were scrubs because of percentages. Now they don't let me post there and aren't willing to discuss it, although it certainly seems like the complete direction the league has gone. But the stats didn't agree. I wonder why more contending teams aren't playing bums like Roberson 30mpg anymore in the corner next to their superstar creators? Don't they see the lineup numbers and how important individual perimeter defense is, in a league that is forced to switch almost every perimeter screen haha.

Those that just post stats and spend hours compiling them are often just trying to look smart, with no ability to understand what they are watching. Many here also put way too much into regular season stats, when it's quite clear that the playoffs are a whole different beast. You need an eye test to see what players and concepts will work in the playoffs, when the defense knows exactly what you are running and how to take it away.


I'm not sure why you think this point is conclusive. Andre Roberson types not playing in 2024 isn't a definite argument agaisnt Andre Roberson's value in 2017 (the only year he played 30mpg). Yes, of course, 2-way players are more valuable than 1-way players, but if your argument was that OKC should play an offense only guy (Dion Waiters or Anthony Morrow) way bigger minutes than Roberson...I do think you were wrong about that.

Andre Roberson had an absolutely elite skill set on defense. For all the handwringing over him, there's actually only 1 year that Roberson played real minutes (22.2mpg) on a healthy KD/Russ team (2016). The year before, KD was out injured, the year after, KD was gone, and before all of this Roberson wasn't a rotation player.

So his one real year where this was a question (2016)...OKC won 59 games, had a top 6 offense and a top 6 defense, went to the Western Conference Finals where they took the 73-win Warriors to 7 games. I'm sure there were lots of possessions where Andre Roberson couldn't do anything on offense that had your eye-test screaming. But how was your eye-test on the other end where Roberson was doing all the perimeter heavy lifting as the best defender on a top 6 defense.

Dion Waiters played more minutes than Roberson (though in the playoffs Waiters minutes came down and Roberson's came up) and both of them got tons of minutes with KD/Russ. With Roberson (no Waiters), the team offense was very good and the team defense was elite. With Waiters (no Roberson), the team offense would become super elite, but the defense would go in the tank.

Forget the numbers though, I question your eye test analysis since you're basically saying you only watch one side of the ball. Waiters (and Morrow) were bad defenders. There was a real cost to playing them. There was a real cost to playing Roberson too, but are you saying you can't see the benefit of playing a multi-positional giant perimeter defender who can also protect the rim?


I wonder why more contending teams aren't playing bums like Roberson 30mpg anymore in the corner next to their superstar creators?
I mean, the simple answer is there are not a lot of guys who are as good defensively as Andre Roberson, nor is there many teams that have guys as good as MVP KD and MVP Westbrook.


PJ Tucker isn't that good a defender and he's still on a roster at 38 doing just that.
jfs1000d
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Re: How Unreliable is the 'Eye-Test' for NBA analysis? 

Post#50 » by jfs1000d » Tue Mar 12, 2024 3:38 pm

Eye Test is critical and the most important part of evaluation. You have to see footwork, defense, explosion, first step etc.

You can't measure athleticism in the box scores. The box scores and analytics helps you understand what a person can be and how best to use that player.

But, as a man who pours over that data when I can, the eye test remains the most important evaluation tool. What is that player doing off ball? How about hockey assists. What kind of gravity does he generate.

Etc.
Pelon chingon
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Re: How Unreliable is the 'Eye-Test' for NBA analysis? 

Post#51 » by Pelon chingon » Tue Mar 12, 2024 3:47 pm

Game isn't played on a spreadsheet. There is a certain type of fan who haven't even played competitive games at the park who use "advanced stats" as gospel and are usually the loudest on social media and the GB.
Masigond
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Re: How Unreliable is the 'Eye-Test' for NBA analysis? 

Post#52 » by Masigond » Tue Mar 12, 2024 3:51 pm

Pelon chingon wrote:Game isn't played on a spreadsheet. There is a certain type of fan who haven't even played competitive games at the park who use "advanced stats" as gospel and are usually the loudest on social media and the GB.

No, the loudest are the stans who think they understand team sports but actually just fall for the alleged impact of skills and spectacular plays while not regaring basketball IQ.

Like all those guys who don't think that it mattered in the early 2000s how many shots a player needed to score 25-30 ppg.
DeBlazerRiddem
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Re: How Unreliable is the 'Eye-Test' for NBA analysis? 

Post#53 » by DeBlazerRiddem » Tue Mar 12, 2024 3:52 pm

Need both. Stats tell you what happened, eye test tells you why it happened.
TheNG
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Re: How Unreliable is the 'Eye-Test' for NBA analysis? 

Post#54 » by TheNG » Tue Mar 12, 2024 4:41 pm

Stats can be manipulated easily.
Eye test is harder to manipulate.
Looking at both should lead you to a better conclusion than relying on one though.
If you have more "Posts" than "And1", don't feel bad if I didn't reply to you - I just don't like to speak with people who argue a lot :beer:
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Re: How Unreliable is the 'Eye-Test' for NBA analysis? 

Post#55 » by theforumblue » Tue Mar 12, 2024 4:46 pm

for me the eye test tells me how developed a player is on certain skillsets, and how likely or quickly they might develop the skills. and obviously the IQ/hustle/body language etc.

a younger player may look decent on the boxscore, but often you could tell they weren't advanced enough on certain skillsets and that they will likely not be able to depend on it in crunch time. but seeing how they operate can give me an idea as to how they might progress.
screw these absolute garbage refs
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Re: How Unreliable is the 'Eye-Test' for NBA analysis? 

Post#56 » by hardenASG13 » Tue Mar 12, 2024 5:04 pm

cupcakesnake wrote:
hardenASG13 wrote:I used to be an OKC fan, and remember arguing for years with basically the whole OKC board, who knocked my "eye test" saying playing Andre Roberson 30 minutes a game, when he couldn't shoot or dribble a basketball, was crazy. Especially next to KD and Westbrook. I was mocked for saying things like it was killing the spacing, and that shooting role players are what that and every team needed. They gave a bunch of lineup stats, said all I cared about was "pointzz" and didn't know what I was seeing. Said guys like Jerami Grant were scrubs because of percentages. Now they don't let me post there and aren't willing to discuss it, although it certainly seems like the complete direction the league has gone. But the stats didn't agree. I wonder why more contending teams aren't playing bums like Roberson 30mpg anymore in the corner next to their superstar creators? Don't they see the lineup numbers and how important individual perimeter defense is, in a league that is forced to switch almost every perimeter screen haha.

Those that just post stats and spend hours compiling them are often just trying to look smart, with no ability to understand what they are watching. Many here also put way too much into regular season stats, when it's quite clear that the playoffs are a whole different beast. You need an eye test to see what players and concepts will work in the playoffs, when the defense knows exactly what you are running and how to take it away.


I'm not sure why you think this point is conclusive. Andre Roberson types not playing in 2024 isn't a definite argument agaisnt Andre Roberson's value in 2017 (the only year he played 30mpg). Yes, of course, 2-way players are more valuable than 1-way players, but if your argument was that OKC should play an offense only guy (Dion Waiters or Anthony Morrow) way bigger minutes than Roberson...I do think you were wrong about that.

Andre Roberson had an absolutely elite skill set on defense. For all the handwringing over him, there's actually only 1 year that Roberson played real minutes (22.2mpg) on a healthy KD/Russ team (2016). The year before, KD was out injured, the year after, KD was gone, and before all of this Roberson wasn't a rotation player.

So his one real year where this was a question (2016)...OKC won 59 games, had a top 6 offense and a top 6 defense, went to the Western Conference Finals where they took the 73-win Warriors to 7 games. I'm sure there were lots of possessions where Andre Roberson couldn't do anything on offense that had your eye-test screaming. But how was your eye-test on the other end where Roberson was doing all the perimeter heavy lifting as the best defender on a top 6 defense.

Dion Waiters played more minutes than Roberson (though in the playoffs Waiters minutes came down and Roberson's came up) and both of them got tons of minutes with KD/Russ. With Roberson (no Waiters), the team offense was very good and the team defense was elite. With Waiters (no Roberson), the team offense would become super elite, but the defense would go in the tank.

Forget the numbers though, I question your eye test analysis since you're basically saying you only watch one side of the ball. Waiters (and Morrow) were bad defenders. There was a real cost to playing them. There was a real cost to playing Roberson too, but are you saying you can't see the benefit of playing a multi-positional giant perimeter defender who can also protect the rim?


Nah I was aware of his defense. The fact that the choice was between him and dion waiters was joke. Neither were championship rotation caliber players. But the stats said Roberson was good. Yet he put a ceiling on their offense that made KD and Westbrooks life so much harder. There's a reason why you don't see defenders with 0 nba offensive skills getting minutes. There's a lot of unskilled athletes out there who can guard at a high level. They aren't in the NBA, just like Roberson. He was laughably bad on offense even during his time, where shooting was needed to contend, lineup data be damned. It cost them a title in 2016 imo and was the reason KD left their roster. There was no need for him to tolerate playing on a roster with no spacing and shooting around him, other stars didn't have to deal with that, and survived without 0 skill defensive role players at their side. OKC was the last team to try to make a guy like that work for a reason (it doesn't, and didn't then).
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Re: How Unreliable is the 'Eye-Test' for NBA analysis? 

Post#57 » by Marrrcuss » Tue Mar 12, 2024 5:25 pm

hardenASG13 wrote:
Nah I was aware of his defense. The fact that the choice was between him and dion waiters was joke. Neither were championship rotation caliber players. But the stats said Roberson was good. Yet he put a ceiling on their offense that made KD and Westbrooks life so much harder. There's a reason why you don't see defenders with 0 nba offensive skills getting minutes. There's a lot of unskilled athletes out there who can guard at a high level. They aren't in the NBA, just like Roberson. He was laughably bad on offense even during his time, where shooting was needed to contend, lineup data be damned. It cost them a title in 2016 imo and was the reason KD left their roster. There was no need for him to tolerate playing on a roster with no spacing and shooting around him, other stars didn't have to deal with that, and survived without 0 skill defensive role players at their side. OKC was the last team to try to make a guy like that work for a reason (it doesn't, and didn't then).

I remember them trying to make him post up Steph. For him to be that bad on offense and the coach to try that strategy was hilarious but also said something about Currys defense back then.
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Re: How Unreliable is the 'Eye-Test' for NBA analysis? 

Post#58 » by xxSnEaKyPxx » Tue Mar 12, 2024 5:29 pm

dhsilv2 wrote:
xxSnEaKyPxx wrote:I think you have to use the eye test to have any kind of opinion.

For one, defense is not well quantified by statistics. You can see blocks, you can see steals, and so on, but any of the more advanced metrics usually involve the entire team to one degree or another. So you really aren't going to see half the game of basketball from looking at a box score, at least not for an individuals defense. Even blocks and steals can be very misleading when talking about how good a defensive player is.


We have break downs of every time a player is in any type of defensive set or against against any type of offensive play type. We have what that player shot against you. What they normally shoot in those scenarios. And we can gather to some degree what impact you have. We can see how many shots you challenge a game which gives us an idea of how much/good you are helping. Certainly defense isn't perfect and augmenting it with an eye test is extremely helpful, but you're massively underselling what kind of data we have.

For example I know Luka defends in isolation 1.5 times per game with the man he's defending scoring 0.84 points per possession and they score about 36% of the time doing this.

Now I'm sure there's more data out there, but not public to drill into who he's guarding. But my eyes know Luka's got poor foot speed but great strength which he uses in isolation. If I had data on foot speed like the mavs likely do, they could drill into how that breaks out between high and low foot speed guys. From there coaches can work to optimize their defense using that data. I as a fan can point out that as long as Kidd finds ways to keep Luka in optimal defensive sets, his weaknesses can be minimized.

Now maybe I see the slow feet, but it doesn't show up in the data? Now I'd have something to look further into and the data could help my eye test be more accurate.

Similarly, I know Jokic this year defends post ups 0.5 times per game. On those guys are scoring 0.81 points per possession, they score about 40.6% of the time, but he's shockingly not given up a single and one all year from a guy posting him up and only seeing a 3.1% frequency for a shooting foul while guys turn the ball over 15.6% of the time when they post him up.

We have a hell of a lot of good data on defense these days. We don't have a magic equation that says "you're a good defender" I suppose...

Problem is you’re only describing a few scenarios. ISOs and post ups aren’t the majority of what teams are defending these days. The constant switching and stuff makes it very tough to identify how good an individual player is defensive through nothing but analytics. You can get somewhat of an idea, but it’s not telling the whole story.
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Re: How Unreliable is the 'Eye-Test' for NBA analysis? 

Post#59 » by dhsilv2 » Tue Mar 12, 2024 6:07 pm

xxSnEaKyPxx wrote:
dhsilv2 wrote:
xxSnEaKyPxx wrote:I think you have to use the eye test to have any kind of opinion.

For one, defense is not well quantified by statistics. You can see blocks, you can see steals, and so on, but any of the more advanced metrics usually involve the entire team to one degree or another. So you really aren't going to see half the game of basketball from looking at a box score, at least not for an individuals defense. Even blocks and steals can be very misleading when talking about how good a defensive player is.


We have break downs of every time a player is in any type of defensive set or against against any type of offensive play type. We have what that player shot against you. What they normally shoot in those scenarios. And we can gather to some degree what impact you have. We can see how many shots you challenge a game which gives us an idea of how much/good you are helping. Certainly defense isn't perfect and augmenting it with an eye test is extremely helpful, but you're massively underselling what kind of data we have.

For example I know Luka defends in isolation 1.5 times per game with the man he's defending scoring 0.84 points per possession and they score about 36% of the time doing this.

Now I'm sure there's more data out there, but not public to drill into who he's guarding. But my eyes know Luka's got poor foot speed but great strength which he uses in isolation. If I had data on foot speed like the mavs likely do, they could drill into how that breaks out between high and low foot speed guys. From there coaches can work to optimize their defense using that data. I as a fan can point out that as long as Kidd finds ways to keep Luka in optimal defensive sets, his weaknesses can be minimized.

Now maybe I see the slow feet, but it doesn't show up in the data? Now I'd have something to look further into and the data could help my eye test be more accurate.

Similarly, I know Jokic this year defends post ups 0.5 times per game. On those guys are scoring 0.81 points per possession, they score about 40.6% of the time, but he's shockingly not given up a single and one all year from a guy posting him up and only seeing a 3.1% frequency for a shooting foul while guys turn the ball over 15.6% of the time when they post him up.

We have a hell of a lot of good data on defense these days. We don't have a magic equation that says "you're a good defender" I suppose...

Problem is you’re only describing a few scenarios. ISOs and post ups aren’t the majority of what teams are defending these days. The constant switching and stuff makes it very tough to identify how good an individual player is defensive through nothing but analytics. You can get somewhat of an idea, but it’s not telling the whole story.


I just picked a few. We have transition stats, pick and roll ball handler, pick and roll roll man, post up, spot up, handoff, cutt, off screen, putbacks and then just a general misc where we can break it down for the offensive and (normally not always) the defensive player. We can then layer in RAPM metrics which of course have lineup noise but they give us another added layer of how someone's defense is when on the court.

No, we don't have some magic pill that explains every single thing...but your eyes can't process that either. You'd have to watch each game and follow that singular player, then rewatch it for each and every player to even get close to being able to visually start to gather the data we can pull of NBA.com in a few minutes. Even if you had the game with all stops cut out, you'd have to watch 10 hours of the same footage for one game to really get close to that.

Scouts have for decades done this kind of work where they tracked players like this to put into data sets to give to coaches. Now NBA.com has it at our finger tips. Even the scouts had to write it down and track the players to do proper evaluations, because you have to quantify things. Your brain just isn't designed like that...for the 99.9% of us at least. I'm sure someone can watch and quantify it..but they're freaks.
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Re: How Unreliable is the 'Eye-Test' for NBA analysis? 

Post#60 » by cupcakesnake » Tue Mar 12, 2024 6:09 pm

hardenASG13 wrote:
cupcakesnake wrote:
hardenASG13 wrote:I used to be an OKC fan, and remember arguing for years with basically the whole OKC board, who knocked my "eye test" saying playing Andre Roberson 30 minutes a game, when he couldn't shoot or dribble a basketball, was crazy. Especially next to KD and Westbrook. I was mocked for saying things like it was killing the spacing, and that shooting role players are what that and every team needed. They gave a bunch of lineup stats, said all I cared about was "pointzz" and didn't know what I was seeing. Said guys like Jerami Grant were scrubs because of percentages. Now they don't let me post there and aren't willing to discuss it, although it certainly seems like the complete direction the league has gone. But the stats didn't agree. I wonder why more contending teams aren't playing bums like Roberson 30mpg anymore in the corner next to their superstar creators? Don't they see the lineup numbers and how important individual perimeter defense is, in a league that is forced to switch almost every perimeter screen haha.

Those that just post stats and spend hours compiling them are often just trying to look smart, with no ability to understand what they are watching. Many here also put way too much into regular season stats, when it's quite clear that the playoffs are a whole different beast. You need an eye test to see what players and concepts will work in the playoffs, when the defense knows exactly what you are running and how to take it away.


I'm not sure why you think this point is conclusive. Andre Roberson types not playing in 2024 isn't a definite argument agaisnt Andre Roberson's value in 2017 (the only year he played 30mpg). Yes, of course, 2-way players are more valuable than 1-way players, but if your argument was that OKC should play an offense only guy (Dion Waiters or Anthony Morrow) way bigger minutes than Roberson...I do think you were wrong about that.

Andre Roberson had an absolutely elite skill set on defense. For all the handwringing over him, there's actually only 1 year that Roberson played real minutes (22.2mpg) on a healthy KD/Russ team (2016). The year before, KD was out injured, the year after, KD was gone, and before all of this Roberson wasn't a rotation player.

So his one real year where this was a question (2016)...OKC won 59 games, had a top 6 offense and a top 6 defense, went to the Western Conference Finals where they took the 73-win Warriors to 7 games. I'm sure there were lots of possessions where Andre Roberson couldn't do anything on offense that had your eye-test screaming. But how was your eye-test on the other end where Roberson was doing all the perimeter heavy lifting as the best defender on a top 6 defense.

Dion Waiters played more minutes than Roberson (though in the playoffs Waiters minutes came down and Roberson's came up) and both of them got tons of minutes with KD/Russ. With Roberson (no Waiters), the team offense was very good and the team defense was elite. With Waiters (no Roberson), the team offense would become super elite, but the defense would go in the tank.

Forget the numbers though, I question your eye test analysis since you're basically saying you only watch one side of the ball. Waiters (and Morrow) were bad defenders. There was a real cost to playing them. There was a real cost to playing Roberson too, but are you saying you can't see the benefit of playing a multi-positional giant perimeter defender who can also protect the rim?


Nah I was aware of his defense. The fact that the choice was between him and dion waiters was joke. Neither were championship rotation caliber players. But the stats said Roberson was good. Yet he put a ceiling on their offense that made KD and Westbrooks life so much harder. There's a reason why you don't see defenders with 0 nba offensive skills getting minutes. There's a lot of unskilled athletes out there who can guard at a high level. They aren't in the NBA, just like Roberson. He was laughably bad on offense even during his time, where shooting was needed to contend, lineup data be damned. It cost them a title in 2016 imo and was the reason KD left their roster. There was no need for him to tolerate playing on a roster with no spacing and shooting around him, other stars didn't have to deal with that, and survived without 0 skill defensive role players at their side. OKC was the last team to try to make a guy like that work for a reason (it doesn't, and didn't then).


I'm not really here to wholesale defend the decisions OKC made around having Roberson as a big part of the rotation that year. But he (and Waiters and Morrow) were the wings they had available that year. You can't have any wing you want, and still today you see teams picking up 1-way players when they can't find/afford a 2-way player (look at the LA Lakers).

OKC was not the last team to make it work. Milwaukee won a championship playing PJ Tucker 30mpg in the playoffs, where he averaged 4.8ppg. The 2021 Warriors leaned heavily on guys like Gary Payton II and Kevon Looney (or Bogut on quite a few of their older teams). There have always been guys who are out there primarily for defense, but I agree that Roberson is an extreme.

The thing is... OKC's offense was fine with Roberson on the floor. I think you're overindexing on him hard and your "eye test" sounds more like something you found annoying rather than a keen observation. There is certainly a question: did Andre Roberson's offensive weaknesses outweigh his defensive impact? But the answer to that isn't obvious. The numbers say it was worth it to play him. Your eye test says it wasn't... I think it's a valid opinion but not exactly any kind of "proof" of the eye test, which is how you orginally presented it. You hate watching a team cripple itself with a bad offensive player, that's fair. Teams try to avoid it at all cost nowadays, but still can't. LA with Vanderbilt last year, Tucker with the Bucks/Heat/Sixers, Knicks with Mitchell Robinson.
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