What's the argument for 2013 LeBron over 2009 LeBron?

[NbaAllDay]

16-18 has often been the peak for me.

09 was brilliant however he had limitations that we understood more in later years. This isn't overlllyy reflected in any of the data but nothing imo surpasses his offense in 16-18 and his D is often underrated during that time as well.

That's a very basic idea of my thoughts anyhow.

[Djoker]

Given what happened to Lebron in the playoffs in surrounding years, 2009 starts looking like a pretty massive outlier in terms of postseason performance. And it makes sense considering it is just 14 games.

Knowing what we know which is that both Lebron's skillset (outside shooting, post game) and mentality grew over the years, it's not difficult to make an argument that 2013 Lebron was better despite having inferior box score and impact stats.

Is it really that big of an Outlier? 2008 and 2010 were both > 10 BPM Playoff runs where the Cavaliers and LeBron James had their playoff run cut short against a defense which was in the Regular Season Sub-100 DRTG when Garnett was on the court and Sub-102 Drtg in the Post-Season.

LeBron shooting 48% on his Mid-range Shots in 2009 isn't any more of an Outlier than LeBron shooting 26% on Mid-range shots in 2008.

Not sure why you're citing DRtg with KG on the court and not overall DRtg.

Anyways.. it's an obvious outlier. ~8 points/75 more on higher efficiency with fewer turnovers.

Playoffs Per 75

2006 Lebron: 27.8/7.3/5.3 on +2.1 rTS with 4.5 to (13 games)
2007 Lebron: 23.6/7.6/7.5 on -2.5 rTS with 3.1 to (20 games)
2008 Lebron: 27.8/7.7/7.5 on -1.5 rTS with 4.1 to (13 games)
2009 Lebron: 35.6/9.2/7.4 on +7.4 rTS with 2.8 to (14 games) ---> OUTLIER
2010 Lebron: 27.1/8.6/7.1 on +6.4 rTS with 3.5 to (11 games)
2011 Lebron: 22.5/8.0/5.6 on +2.2 rTS with 3.0 to (21 games)
2012 Lebron: 29.0/9.3/5.4 on +4.9 rTS with 3.4 to (23 games)
2013 Lebron: 25.6/8.3/6.5 on +5.0 rTS with 3.0 to (23 games)
2014 Lebron: 30.0/7.7/5.2 on +12.7 rTS with 3.4 to (20 games)
2015 Lebron: 28.3/10.7/8.0 on -4.7 rTS with 3.8 to (20 games)
2016 Lebron: 26.7/9.7/7.7 on +4.4 rTS with 3.6 to (21 games)
2017 Lebron: 29.6/8.3/7.1 on +9.7 rTS with 3.6 to (18 games)
2018 Lebron: 31.9/8.6/8.5 on +6.4 rTS with 4.0 to (22 games)
2020 Lebron: 28.2/11.0/8.9 on +8.2 rTS with 4.1 to (21 games)
2021 Lebron: 24.0/7.4/8.3 on -0.7 rTS with 4.3 to (6 games)
2023 Lebron: 23.3/9.4/6.2 on +0.3 rTS with 2.4 to (16 games)
Career Lebron: 27.6/8.8/7.0 on +3.7 rTS with 3.5 to (282 games)

[Colbinii]

Given what happened to Lebron in the playoffs in surrounding years, 2009 starts looking like a pretty massive outlier in terms of postseason performance. And it makes sense considering it is just 14 games.

Knowing what we know which is that both Lebron's skillset (outside shooting, post game) and mentality grew over the years, it's not difficult to make an argument that 2013 Lebron was better despite having inferior box score and impact stats.

Is it really that big of an Outlier? 2008 and 2010 were both > 10 BPM Playoff runs where the Cavaliers and LeBron James had their playoff run cut short against a defense which was in the Regular Season Sub-100 DRTG when Garnett was on the court and Sub-102 Drtg in the Post-Season.

LeBron shooting 48% on his Mid-range Shots in 2009 isn't any more of an Outlier than LeBron shooting 26% on Mid-range shots in 2008.

Not sure why you're citing DRtg with KG on the court and not overall DRtg.

Why does it matter to you?

The reason I am citing it is because KG missed games in the RS and his On-Court rating, where him playing 39 MPG in 2008 against Cleveland and 34 MPG in 2010 against Cleveland is the most relevant.

But, the difference isn't huge, it is like 4-5 Points per 100 when KG is On versus Off in 2008 and 2010.

Anyways.. it's an obvious outlier. ~8 points/75 more on higher efficiency with fewer turnovers.

Playoffs Per 75

2006 Lebron: 27.8/7.3/5.3 on +2.1 rTS with 4.5 to (13 games)
2007 Lebron: 23.6/7.6/7.5 on -2.5 rTS with 3.1 to (20 games)
2008 Lebron: 27.8/7.7/7.5 on -1.5 rTS with 4.1 to (13 games)
2009 Lebron: 35.6/9.2/7.4 on +7.4 rTS with 2.8 to (14 games) ---> OUTLIER
2010 Lebron: 27.1/8.6/7.1 on +6.4 rTS with 3.5 to (11 games)
2011 Lebron: 22.5/8.0/5.6 on +2.2 rTS with 3.0 to (21 games)
2012 Lebron: 29.0/9.3/5.4 on +4.9 rTS with 3.4 to (23 games)
2013 Lebron: 25.6/8.3/6.5 on +5.0 rTS with 3.0 to (23 games)
2014 Lebron: 30.0/7.7/5.2 on +12.7 rTS with 3.4 to (20 games)
2015 Lebron: 28.3/10.7/8.0 on -4.7 rTS with 3.8 to (20 games)
2016 Lebron: 26.7/9.7/7.7 on +4.4 rTS with 3.6 to (21 games)
2017 Lebron: 29.6/8.3/7.1 on +9.7 rTS with 3.6 to (18 games)
2018 Lebron: 31.9/8.6/8.5 on +6.4 rTS with 4.0 to (22 games)
2020 Lebron: 28.2/11.0/8.9 on +8.2 rTS with 4.1 to (21 games)
2021 Lebron: 24.0/7.4/8.3 on -0.7 rTS with 4.3 to (6 games)
2023 Lebron: 23.3/9.4/6.2 on +0.3 rTS with 2.4 to (16 games)
Career Lebron: 27.6/8.8/7.0 on +3.7 rTS with 3.5 to (282 games)

It did happen though. And like LA Bird said, before LeBron was injured, he was playing like his 2009 Playoff-self in 2010 in the 1st round. It wasn't until he hurt his elbow where his shooting fell off.

2010 Game 1 against Boston: 35 Points on 50/50/73 shooting in 81 Possessions
2010 Game 2 against Boston: 24 Points on 47/0/67 shooting in 80 Possessions
2010 Game 3 against Boston: 38 Points on 64/67/89 shooting in 71 Possessions

That's 42 Points/100 Possessions

Post-Injury

2010 Game 4 against Boston: 22 Points on 39/0/72 shooting in 85 Possessions
2010 Game 5 against Boston: 15 Points on 21/0/75 shooting in 80 Possessions
2010 Game 6 against Boston: 27 Points on 38/50/75 shooting in 92 Possessions

That's 25 Points/100 Possessions

Also, keep in mind the last 3 games of the 2008 Playoffs where he posted 35, 32 and 45 [In a game 7, on the road IN Boston, scoring 13 points in the 4th quarter against arguably the best defense of the 21st Century and in NBA History].

In those final 3 games against the 2008 Celtics, LeBron posted 47 Points/100 Possessions.

That gives us not a 14 game sample but a 25 game sample, of consecutive playoff games, of roughly 45 Points per 100 Possessions on incredible efficiency [LeBron scored on roughly 41 Points per 100 against Chicago in 2010].

[lessthanjake]

Given what happened to Lebron in the playoffs in surrounding years, 2009 starts looking like a pretty massive outlier in terms of postseason performance. And it makes sense considering it is just 14 games.

Knowing what we know which is that both Lebron's skillset (outside shooting, post game) and mentality grew over the years, it's not difficult to make an argument that 2013 Lebron was better despite having inferior box score and impact stats.

Is it really that big of an Outlier? 2008 and 2010 were both > 10 BPM Playoff runs where the Cavaliers and LeBron James had their playoff run cut short against a defense which was in the Regular Season Sub-100 DRTG when Garnett was on the court and Sub-102 Drtg in the Post-Season.

LeBron shooting 48% on his Mid-range Shots in 2009 isn't any more of an Outlier than LeBron shooting 26% on Mid-range shots in 2008.

Not sure why you're citing DRtg with KG on the court and not overall DRtg.

Anyways.. it's an obvious outlier. ~8 points/75 more on higher efficiency with fewer turnovers.

Playoffs Per 75

2006 Lebron: 27.8/7.3/5.3 on +2.1 rTS with 4.5 to (13 games)
2007 Lebron: 23.6/7.6/7.5 on -2.5 rTS with 3.1 to (20 games)
2008 Lebron: 27.8/7.7/7.5 on -1.5 rTS with 4.1 to (13 games)
2009 Lebron: 35.6/9.2/7.4 on +7.4 rTS with 2.8 to (14 games) ---> OUTLIER
2010 Lebron: 27.1/8.6/7.1 on +6.4 rTS with 3.5 to (11 games)
2011 Lebron: 22.5/8.0/5.6 on +2.2 rTS with 3.0 to (21 games)
2012 Lebron: 29.0/9.3/5.4 on +4.9 rTS with 3.4 to (23 games)
2013 Lebron: 25.6/8.3/6.5 on +5.0 rTS with 3.0 to (23 games)
2014 Lebron: 30.0/7.7/5.2 on +12.7 rTS with 3.4 to (20 games)
2015 Lebron: 28.3/10.7/8.0 on -4.7 rTS with 3.8 to (20 games)
2016 Lebron: 26.7/9.7/7.7 on +4.4 rTS with 3.6 to (21 games)
2017 Lebron: 29.6/8.3/7.1 on +9.7 rTS with 3.6 to (18 games)
2018 Lebron: 31.9/8.6/8.5 on +6.4 rTS with 4.0 to (22 games)
2020 Lebron: 28.2/11.0/8.9 on +8.2 rTS with 4.1 to (21 games)
2021 Lebron: 24.0/7.4/8.3 on -0.7 rTS with 4.3 to (6 games)
2023 Lebron: 23.3/9.4/6.2 on +0.3 rTS with 2.4 to (16 games)
Career Lebron: 27.6/8.8/7.0 on +3.7 rTS with 3.5 to (282 games)

I agree that the playoff box stats that year are pretty obviously an outlier. And, I’d further note that it’s not surprising to get that in a 14-game sample—it’s really not many games. That said, though, that playoff-box-stat outlier did also come in the same year where he had his best statistical regular season. To take a couple examples, it was his highest BPM and highest on-off in any regular season, by a pretty substantial margin for both. The fact that the playoff-box-stat outlier came in the same year where the regular season stats were at their best, is probably suggestive of the fact that not all the outlier-ness of the playoff numbers that year was just variance (i.e. with large samples, he’d probably still have had his best stats in that year’s playoffs—though probably not by the same margin). He just seems to have produced his best stats that year in general.

Of course, the big question for purposes of this thread is whether that *necessarily* means he was actually at his best that season. I do think it’s the case that some situations can be more conducive to racking up better numbers than others. That Cavs team was a lot more dependent on LeBron than the Heat were—for the obvious reason that the Heat had other star players. We might expect higher dependency on a player to generally lead to higher impact numbers, and to also boost box numbers. So I don’t think 2013 LeBron having worse numbers necessarily means he was less good than 2009 LeBron. Maybe he was as good or better, but just was in a situation less conducive to that showing up in the numbers. That’d be the argument anyways. However, the argument for 2009 does go beyond just individual numbers, because the 2009 Cavs actually were extremely good in the regular season (and even had LeBron’s highest “On” rating ever), despite being less talented. Squeezing out the most regular-season team success with a less talented roster is suggestive of the individual player being better. But then he didn’t squeeze out more from the 2009 Cavs than the 2013 Heat in the playoffs, where it matters the most, so how much should we really infer from the higher regular-season team success?

Overall, for me, it’s a tough question. Thinking back to that time period, I was more impressed by what he did in 2009 than 2013. But, at the same time, I trusted 2013 LeBron more than I trusted 2009 LeBron (in part due to him having a wider skill set). So, I guess to me I’d say LeBron played better in 2009 than in 2013, but if I had to start a season from scratch with 2009 LeBron or 2013 LeBron I think I’d probably pick 2013 LeBron.

[Djoker]

Is it really that big of an Outlier? 2008 and 2010 were both > 10 BPM Playoff runs where the Cavaliers and LeBron James had their playoff run cut short against a defense which was in the Regular Season Sub-100 DRTG when Garnett was on the court and Sub-102 Drtg in the Post-Season.

LeBron shooting 48% on his Mid-range Shots in 2009 isn't any more of an Outlier than LeBron shooting 26% on Mid-range shots in 2008.

Not sure why you're citing DRtg with KG on the court and not overall DRtg.

Why does it matter to you?

The reason I am citing it is because KG missed games in the RS and his On-Court rating, where him playing 39 MPG in 2008 against Cleveland and 34 MPG in 2010 against Cleveland is the most relevant.

But, the difference isn't huge, it is like 4-5 Points per 100 when KG is On versus Off in 2008 and 2010.

Lebron didn't just play against the Celtics when KG was on the court.

Anyways.. it's an obvious outlier. ~8 points/75 more on higher efficiency with fewer turnovers.

Playoffs Per 75

2006 Lebron: 27.8/7.3/5.3 on +2.1 rTS with 4.5 to (13 games)
2007 Lebron: 23.6/7.6/7.5 on -2.5 rTS with 3.1 to (20 games)
2008 Lebron: 27.8/7.7/7.5 on -1.5 rTS with 4.1 to (13 games)
2009 Lebron: 35.6/9.2/7.4 on +7.4 rTS with 2.8 to (14 games) ---> OUTLIER
2010 Lebron: 27.1/8.6/7.1 on +6.4 rTS with 3.5 to (11 games)
2011 Lebron: 22.5/8.0/5.6 on +2.2 rTS with 3.0 to (21 games)
2012 Lebron: 29.0/9.3/5.4 on +4.9 rTS with 3.4 to (23 games)
2013 Lebron: 25.6/8.3/6.5 on +5.0 rTS with 3.0 to (23 games)
2014 Lebron: 30.0/7.7/5.2 on +12.7 rTS with 3.4 to (20 games)
2015 Lebron: 28.3/10.7/8.0 on -4.7 rTS with 3.8 to (20 games)
2016 Lebron: 26.7/9.7/7.7 on +4.4 rTS with 3.6 to (21 games)
2017 Lebron: 29.6/8.3/7.1 on +9.7 rTS with 3.6 to (18 games)
2018 Lebron: 31.9/8.6/8.5 on +6.4 rTS with 4.0 to (22 games)
2020 Lebron: 28.2/11.0/8.9 on +8.2 rTS with 4.1 to (21 games)
2021 Lebron: 24.0/7.4/8.3 on -0.7 rTS with 4.3 to (6 games)
2023 Lebron: 23.3/9.4/6.2 on +0.3 rTS with 2.4 to (16 games)
Career Lebron: 27.6/8.8/7.0 on +3.7 rTS with 3.5 to (282 games)

It did happen though. And like LA Bird said, before LeBron was injured, he was playing like his 2009 Playoff-self in 2010 in the 1st round. It wasn't until he hurt his elbow where his shooting fell off.

2010 Game 1 against Boston: 35 Points on 50/50/73 shooting in 81 Possessions
2010 Game 2 against Boston: 24 Points on 47/0/67 shooting in 80 Possessions
2010 Game 3 against Boston: 38 Points on 64/67/89 shooting in 71 Possessions

That's 42 Points/100 Possessions

Post-Injury

2010 Game 4 against Boston: 22 Points on 39/0/72 shooting in 85 Possessions
2010 Game 5 against Boston: 15 Points on 21/0/75 shooting in 80 Possessions
2010 Game 6 against Boston: 27 Points on 38/50/75 shooting in 92 Possessions

That's 25 Points/100 Possessions

Also, keep in mind the last 3 games of the 2008 Playoffs where he posted 35, 32 and 45 [In a game 7, on the road IN Boston, scoring 13 points in the 4th quarter against arguably the best defense of the 21st Century and in NBA History].

In those final 3 games against the 2008 Celtics, LeBron posted 47 Points/100 Possessions.

That gives us not a 14 game sample but a 25 game sample, of consecutive playoff games, of roughly 45 Points per 100 Possessions on incredible efficiency [LeBron scored on roughly 41 Points per 100 against Chicago in 2010].

Ok 25 games... If you want to take that and run, go for it. You're still arbitrarily cutting off the first 10 games of the 2008 postseason and the last 3 games of the 2010 postseason. 2008 wasn't his prime yet so that leaves 2010.

I don't think that elbow injury is well documented. It's one of the explanations given for his struggles. There's also the possibility that his mother had an affair with a teammate or that he simply choked. We'll never know why but he underperformed. I'm much less confident in 2009 Lebron because of what happened in 2010 and 2011.

[Djoker]

Is it really that big of an Outlier? 2008 and 2010 were both > 10 BPM Playoff runs where the Cavaliers and LeBron James had their playoff run cut short against a defense which was in the Regular Season Sub-100 DRTG when Garnett was on the court and Sub-102 Drtg in the Post-Season.

LeBron shooting 48% on his Mid-range Shots in 2009 isn't any more of an Outlier than LeBron shooting 26% on Mid-range shots in 2008.

Not sure why you're citing DRtg with KG on the court and not overall DRtg.

Anyways.. it's an obvious outlier. ~8 points/75 more on higher efficiency with fewer turnovers.

Playoffs Per 75

2006 Lebron: 27.8/7.3/5.3 on +2.1 rTS with 4.5 to (13 games)
2007 Lebron: 23.6/7.6/7.5 on -2.5 rTS with 3.1 to (20 games)
2008 Lebron: 27.8/7.7/7.5 on -1.5 rTS with 4.1 to (13 games)
2009 Lebron: 35.6/9.2/7.4 on +7.4 rTS with 2.8 to (14 games) ---> OUTLIER
2010 Lebron: 27.1/8.6/7.1 on +6.4 rTS with 3.5 to (11 games)
2011 Lebron: 22.5/8.0/5.6 on +2.2 rTS with 3.0 to (21 games)
2012 Lebron: 29.0/9.3/5.4 on +4.9 rTS with 3.4 to (23 games)
2013 Lebron: 25.6/8.3/6.5 on +5.0 rTS with 3.0 to (23 games)
2014 Lebron: 30.0/7.7/5.2 on +12.7 rTS with 3.4 to (20 games)
2015 Lebron: 28.3/10.7/8.0 on -4.7 rTS with 3.8 to (20 games)
2016 Lebron: 26.7/9.7/7.7 on +4.4 rTS with 3.6 to (21 games)
2017 Lebron: 29.6/8.3/7.1 on +9.7 rTS with 3.6 to (18 games)
2018 Lebron: 31.9/8.6/8.5 on +6.4 rTS with 4.0 to (22 games)
2020 Lebron: 28.2/11.0/8.9 on +8.2 rTS with 4.1 to (21 games)
2021 Lebron: 24.0/7.4/8.3 on -0.7 rTS with 4.3 to (6 games)
2023 Lebron: 23.3/9.4/6.2 on +0.3 rTS with 2.4 to (16 games)
Career Lebron: 27.6/8.8/7.0 on +3.7 rTS with 3.5 to (282 games)

I agree that the playoff box stats that year are pretty obviously an outlier. And, I’d further note that it’s not surprising to get that in a 14-game sample—it’s really not many games. That said, though, that playoff-box-stat outlier did also come in the same year where he had his best statistical regular season. To take a couple examples, it was his highest BPM and highest on-off in any regular season, by a pretty substantial margin for both. The fact that the playoff-box-stat outlier came in the same year where the regular season stats were at their best, is probably suggestive of the fact that not all the outlier-ness of the playoff numbers that year was just variance (i.e. with large samples, he’d probably still have had his best stats in that year’s playoffs—though probably not by the same margin). He just seems to have produced his best stats that year in general.

Of course, the big question for purposes of this thread is whether that *necessarily* means he was actually at his best that season. I do think it’s the case that some situations can be more conducive to racking up better numbers than others. That Cavs team was a lot more dependent on LeBron than the Heat were—for the obvious reason that the Heat had other star players. We might expect higher dependency on a player to generally lead to higher impact numbers, and to also boost box numbers. So I don’t think 2013 LeBron having worse numbers necessarily means he was less good than 2009 LeBron. Maybe he was as good or better, but just was in a situation less conducive to that showing up in the numbers. That’d be the argument anyways. However, the argument for 2009 does go beyond just individual numbers, because the 2009 Cavs actually were extremely good in the regular season (and even had LeBron’s highest “On” rating ever), despite being less talented. Squeezing out the most regular-season team success with a less talented roster is suggestive of the individual player being better. But then he didn’t squeeze out more from the 2009 Cavs than the 2013 Heat in the playoffs, where it matters the most, so how much should we really infer from the higher regular-season team success?

Overall, for me, it’s a tough question. Thinking back to that time period, I was more impressed by what he did in 2009 than 2013. But, at the same time, I trusted 2013 LeBron more than I trusted 2009 LeBron (in part due to him having a wider skill set). So, I guess to me I’d say LeBron played better in 2009 than in 2013, but if I had to start a season from scratch with 2009 LeBron or 2013 LeBron I think I’d probably pick 2013 LeBron.

Good post but Lebron has come close to the 2009 RS. Namely in 2010 and 2013 for instance. He's never come close to his 2009 postseason in terms of box score.

[Colbinii]

Lebron didn't just play against the Celtics when KG was on the court.

That is true. The 2008 Celtics with KG were ~-11 Defensively With KG on-Court and -6 Defensively with him on the bench. Those final 3 games in that 2008 Series were arguably the best 3-game stretch we have ever seen from a scoring perspective, especially the Game 7--talk about clutch!

[homecourtloss]

Given what happened to Lebron in the playoffs in surrounding years, 2009 starts looking like a pretty massive outlier in terms of postseason performance. And it makes sense considering it is just 14 games.

Knowing what we know which is that both Lebron's skillset (outside shooting, post game) and mentality grew over the years, it's not difficult to make an argument that 2013 Lebron was better despite having inferior box score and impact stats.

Is it really that big of an Outlier? 2008 and 2010 were both > 10 BPM Playoff runs where the Cavaliers and LeBron James had their playoff run cut short against a defense which was in the Regular Season Sub-100 DRTG when Garnett was on the court and Sub-102 Drtg in the Post-Season.

LeBron shooting 48% on his Mid-range Shots in 2009 isn't any more of an Outlier than LeBron shooting 26% on Mid-range shots in 2008.

Not sure why you're citing DRtg with KG on the court and not overall DRtg.

Anyways.. it's an obvious outlier. ~8 points/75 more on higher efficiency with fewer turnovers.

Playoffs Per 75

2006 Lebron: 27.8/7.3/5.3 on +2.1 rTS with 4.5 to (13 games)
2007 Lebron: 23.6/7.6/7.5 on -2.5 rTS with 3.1 to (20 games)
2008 Lebron: 27.8/7.7/7.5 on -1.5 rTS with 4.1 to (13 games)
2009 Lebron: 35.6/9.2/7.4 on +7.4 rTS with 2.8 to (14 games) ---> OUTLIER
2010 Lebron: 27.1/8.6/7.1 on +6.4 rTS with 3.5 to (11 games)
2011 Lebron: 22.5/8.0/5.6 on +2.2 rTS with 3.0 to (21 games)
2012 Lebron: 29.0/9.3/5.4 on +4.9 rTS with 3.4 to (23 games)
2013 Lebron: 25.6/8.3/6.5 on +5.0 rTS with 3.0 to (23 games)
2014 Lebron: 30.0/7.7/5.2 on +12.7 rTS with 3.4 to (20 games)
2015 Lebron: 28.3/10.7/8.0 on -4.7 rTS with 3.8 to (20 games)
2016 Lebron: 26.7/9.7/7.7 on +4.4 rTS with 3.6 to (21 games)
2017 Lebron: 29.6/8.3/7.1 on +9.7 rTS with 3.6 to (18 games)
2018 Lebron: 31.9/8.6/8.5 on +6.4 rTS with 4.0 to (22 games)
2020 Lebron: 28.2/11.0/8.9 on +8.2 rTS with 4.1 to (21 games)
2021 Lebron: 24.0/7.4/8.3 on -0.7 rTS with 4.3 to (6 games)
2023 Lebron: 23.3/9.4/6.2 on +0.3 rTS with 2.4 to (16 games)
Career Lebron: 27.6/8.8/7.0 on +3.7 rTS with 3.5 to (282 games)

Mathematically speaking, it’s not an outlier. If you want to colloquially say it was an “outlier,” ok, but basically his whole career is an outlier. Also, it DID happen, and it was done by a GoAT player who also did it in the same regular season. Frankly, if Ben Wallace doesn’t get injured, I think they win title losing maybe 3-4 games.

Lebron has come close to the 2009 RS. Namely in 2010 and 2013 for instance. He's never come close to his 2009 postseason in terms of box score.

Nobody has. It’s a feather in his cap that it was he who did so.

[Asianiac_24]

To me, 2017/2018 LeBron is his peak

[Djoker]

Is it really that big of an Outlier? 2008 and 2010 were both > 10 BPM Playoff runs where the Cavaliers and LeBron James had their playoff run cut short against a defense which was in the Regular Season Sub-100 DRTG when Garnett was on the court and Sub-102 Drtg in the Post-Season.

LeBron shooting 48% on his Mid-range Shots in 2009 isn't any more of an Outlier than LeBron shooting 26% on Mid-range shots in 2008.

Not sure why you're citing DRtg with KG on the court and not overall DRtg.

Anyways.. it's an obvious outlier. ~8 points/75 more on higher efficiency with fewer turnovers.

Playoffs Per 75

2006 Lebron: 27.8/7.3/5.3 on +2.1 rTS with 4.5 to (13 games)
2007 Lebron: 23.6/7.6/7.5 on -2.5 rTS with 3.1 to (20 games)
2008 Lebron: 27.8/7.7/7.5 on -1.5 rTS with 4.1 to (13 games)
2009 Lebron: 35.6/9.2/7.4 on +7.4 rTS with 2.8 to (14 games) ---> OUTLIER
2010 Lebron: 27.1/8.6/7.1 on +6.4 rTS with 3.5 to (11 games)
2011 Lebron: 22.5/8.0/5.6 on +2.2 rTS with 3.0 to (21 games)
2012 Lebron: 29.0/9.3/5.4 on +4.9 rTS with 3.4 to (23 games)
2013 Lebron: 25.6/8.3/6.5 on +5.0 rTS with 3.0 to (23 games)
2014 Lebron: 30.0/7.7/5.2 on +12.7 rTS with 3.4 to (20 games)
2015 Lebron: 28.3/10.7/8.0 on -4.7 rTS with 3.8 to (20 games)
2016 Lebron: 26.7/9.7/7.7 on +4.4 rTS with 3.6 to (21 games)
2017 Lebron: 29.6/8.3/7.1 on +9.7 rTS with 3.6 to (18 games)
2018 Lebron: 31.9/8.6/8.5 on +6.4 rTS with 4.0 to (22 games)
2020 Lebron: 28.2/11.0/8.9 on +8.2 rTS with 4.1 to (21 games)
2021 Lebron: 24.0/7.4/8.3 on -0.7 rTS with 4.3 to (6 games)
2023 Lebron: 23.3/9.4/6.2 on +0.3 rTS with 2.4 to (16 games)
Career Lebron: 27.6/8.8/7.0 on +3.7 rTS with 3.5 to (282 games)

Mathematically speaking, it’s not an outlier. If you want to colloquially say it was an “outlier,” ok, but basically his whole career is an outlier. Also, it DID happen, and it was done by a GoAT player who also did it in the same regular season. Frankly, if Ben Wallace doesn’t get injured, I think they win title losing maybe 3-4 games.

Lebron has come close to the 2009 RS. Namely in 2010 and 2013 for instance. He's never come close to his 2009 postseason in terms of box score.

Nobody has. It’s a feather in his cap that it was he who did so.

LOL at "whole career is an outlier". What kind of retort is that?

Not sure how you're mathematically figuring out whether something is an outlier. With a p value of 0.05, it's more than two standard deviations from the mean in normally distributed data that's considered an outlier. That's standard practice. But anyways, whether it's mathematically an outlier or not is irrelevant. The point is that no one can reasonably expect Lebron to maintain that kind of production over a larger sample. Let's call it a colloquial outlier if you wish.

As for "nobody has", quite a few players have matched or exceeded Lebron's production if we compare longer playoff peaks than like 14 games. Say 3-year or 5-year playoff peak which is what most serious analysis usually does acknowledging the noise in small samples.

[ShotCreator]

LeBron was never more athletic than he was in 09. LeBron was in a real finishing at rim and shooting rhythm in 13 but he was much slower. Much stronger, which does count, but I think as evidenced by the preposterous two-way series he put out in 09 and 10 - LeBron's speed and quickness is his most important athletic gift.

I also feel LeBron's wrecking ball style of wing D in 09 was much stronger because of this.

By all evidence, 09 LeBron was a lockdown man defender. Definitely not the case in 13.

[PistolPeteJR]

LeBron was never more athletic than he was in 09. LeBron was in a real finishing at rim and shooting rhythm in 13 but he was much slower. Much stronger, which does count, but I think as evidenced by the preposterous two-way series he put out in 09 and 10 - LeBron's speed and quickness is his most important athletic gift.

I also feel LeBron's wrecking ball style of wing D in 09 was much stronger because of this.

By all evidence, 09 LeBron was a lockdown man defender. Definitely not the case in 13.

What? LeBron in 2013 is believed by many to have deserved DPOY over Marc Gasol, highlighted by the fact that Gasol finished on the All-Defensive Second Team...

[Dr Positivity]

I prefer Lebron with better post play, shooting and experience, but less athleticism. His numbers in 09 didn't suffer in the playoffs, however his lowest points of 10 and 11 playoffs are better examples of the downside of not being able to take advantage of it as much if you played off him. Some of his biggest moments of 12 and 13 playoffs were hitting jumpers for a reason. For same reason Dirk is better in 2011 than 2006 despite the latter having a nice playoff run, because you should take into account what happened in 2007.

[PistolPeteJR]

I prefer Lebron with better post play, shooting and experience, but less athleticism. His numbers in 09 didn't suffer in the playoffs, however his lowest points of 10 and 11 playoffs are better examples of the downside of not being able to take advantage of it as much if you played off him. Some of his biggest moments of 12 and 13 playoffs were hitting jumpers for a reason. For same reason Dirk is better in 2011 than 2006 despite the latter having a nice playoff run, because you should take into account what happened in 2007.

'11 yes. '10 though he was killing it and on a similar pace as '09 until the elbow.

[OhayoKD]

I prefer Lebron with better post play, shooting and experience, but less athleticism. His numbers in 09 didn't suffer in the playoffs, however his lowest points of 10 and 11 playoffs are better examples of the downside of not being able to take advantage of it as much if you played off him. Some of his biggest moments of 12 and 13 playoffs were hitting jumpers for a reason. For same reason Dirk is better in 2011 than 2006 despite the latter having a nice playoff run, because you should take into account what happened in 2007.

'11 yes. '10 though he was killing it and on a similar pace as '09 until the elbow.

So basically positivity's argument is built on the idea that a physically different Lebron playing a new position with a similar co-star is actually the same player as 2009 Lebron lol

[OhayoKD]

Not sure why you're citing DRtg with KG on the court and not overall DRtg.

Anyways.. it's an obvious outlier. ~8 points/75 more on higher efficiency with fewer turnovers.

Playoffs Per 75

2006 Lebron: 27.8/7.3/5.3 on +2.1 rTS with 4.5 to (13 games)
2007 Lebron: 23.6/7.6/7.5 on -2.5 rTS with 3.1 to (20 games)
2008 Lebron: 27.8/7.7/7.5 on -1.5 rTS with 4.1 to (13 games)
2009 Lebron: 35.6/9.2/7.4 on +7.4 rTS with 2.8 to (14 games) ---> OUTLIER
2010 Lebron: 27.1/8.6/7.1 on +6.4 rTS with 3.5 to (11 games)
2011 Lebron: 22.5/8.0/5.6 on +2.2 rTS with 3.0 to (21 games)
2012 Lebron: 29.0/9.3/5.4 on +4.9 rTS with 3.4 to (23 games)
2013 Lebron: 25.6/8.3/6.5 on +5.0 rTS with 3.0 to (23 games)
2014 Lebron: 30.0/7.7/5.2 on +12.7 rTS with 3.4 to (20 games)
2015 Lebron: 28.3/10.7/8.0 on -4.7 rTS with 3.8 to (20 games)
2016 Lebron: 26.7/9.7/7.7 on +4.4 rTS with 3.6 to (21 games)
2017 Lebron: 29.6/8.3/7.1 on +9.7 rTS with 3.6 to (18 games)
2018 Lebron: 31.9/8.6/8.5 on +6.4 rTS with 4.0 to (22 games)
2020 Lebron: 28.2/11.0/8.9 on +8.2 rTS with 4.1 to (21 games)
2021 Lebron: 24.0/7.4/8.3 on -0.7 rTS with 4.3 to (6 games)
2023 Lebron: 23.3/9.4/6.2 on +0.3 rTS with 2.4 to (16 games)
Career Lebron: 27.6/8.8/7.0 on +3.7 rTS with 3.5 to (282 games)

I agree that the playoff box stats that year are pretty obviously an outlier. And, I’d further note that it’s not surprising to get that in a 14-game sample—it’s really not many games. That said, though, that playoff-box-stat outlier did also come in the same year where he had his best statistical regular season. To take a couple examples, it was his highest BPM and highest on-off in any regular season, by a pretty substantial margin for both. The fact that the playoff-box-stat outlier came in the same year where the regular season stats were at their best, is probably suggestive of the fact that not all the outlier-ness of the playoff numbers that year was just variance (i.e. with large samples, he’d probably still have had his best stats in that year’s playoffs—though probably not by the same margin). He just seems to have produced his best stats that year in general.

Of course, the big question for purposes of this thread is whether that *necessarily* means he was actually at his best that season. I do think it’s the case that some situations can be more conducive to racking up better numbers than others. That Cavs team was a lot more dependent on LeBron than the Heat were—for the obvious reason that the Heat had other star players. We might expect higher dependency on a player to generally lead to higher impact numbers, and to also boost box numbers. So I don’t think 2013 LeBron having worse numbers necessarily means he was less good than 2009 LeBron. Maybe he was as good or better, but just was in a situation less conducive to that showing up in the numbers. That’d be the argument anyways. However, the argument for 2009 does go beyond just individual numbers, because the 2009 Cavs actually were extremely good in the regular season (and even had LeBron’s highest “On” rating ever), despite being less talented. Squeezing out the most regular-season team success with a less talented roster is suggestive of the individual player being better. But then he didn’t squeeze out more from the 2009 Cavs than the 2013 Heat in the playoffs, where it matters the most, so how much should we really infer from the higher regular-season team success?

Overall, for me, it’s a tough question. Thinking back to that time period, I was more impressed by what he did in 2009 than 2013. But, at the same time, I trusted 2013 LeBron more than I trusted 2009 LeBron (in part due to him having a wider skill set). So, I guess to me I’d say LeBron played better in 2009 than in 2013, but if I had to start a season from scratch with 2009 LeBron or 2013 LeBron I think I’d probably pick 2013 LeBron.

Good post but Lebron has come close to the 2009 RS. Namely in 2010 and 2013 for instance. He's never come close to his 2009 postseason in terms of box score.

2009 Lebron was more effecient(best turnover economy year ever) while being vastly more involved in the offense(probably more involved than anyone ever really). This is why you don't PER everything.

[LukaTheGOAT]

2013 Lebron is hypothetical man.

2009 Lebron IS the actual man.

[LukaTheGOAT]

Short answer: Rings
Long answer: Rings

Many people can't accept the possibility of a GOAT level player peaking in a non title season so they created the narrative that LeBron turned from some raw offensive player who got exposed in the playoffs into a skilled shooter with a resilient post game to justify his later championship success. But let's look at the facts:

• 13 LeBron dropped 5.5% TS in the playoffs (2nd worst of career) while 09 LeBron improved by 2.7% TS in the playoffs. Unless resiliency is just a buzzword for rings, 09 LeBron's scoring efficiency was objectively more resilient in the playoffs.

• 12 LeBron shot 25.9% from three in the playoffs and 3-16 in the Finals, winning his first title with some of the worst outside shooting of his career. 16 LeBron shot 30.9% from three in RS, 34.0% in PO. 09 LeBron wasn't a great shooter but he wasn't bad either. This idea that LeBron started winning rings later because he learnt how to shoot makes for a nice comeback storyline after 2011 but it is just a myth.

• 17 LeBron has a stronger case over 13 LeBron than 13 LeBron over 09 LeBron if we use the same arguments of offensive completeness. 17 LeBron averaged 33 ppg and 8 apg on 65% TS with 41% 3pt shooting while leading GOAT postseason offenses both overall and in terms of on/off. Why then do 13 LeBron supporters not pick 17 as his peak? (Hint: Rings again)

• 10 LeBron was actually on pace for another GOAT level statistical playoffs run like 09 LeBron before the last 3 games against the Celtics. In other words, in the 25 game sample across 09/10 playoffs, there is a 22 game stretch of GOAT level play and a 3 game stretch of subpar play and those dismissing 09 LeBron as a fluke want us to ignore 88% of the games because they are all outliers. Does that sound logical at all?

09 LeBron is the only season ever where the argument against it comes not from what he did that season but two seasons later. To put into perspective how ridiculous that is, imagine arguing against 67 as Wilt's peak by bringing up his problems in the 69 season. Realistically, the only thing you can nitpick about 09 LeBron is his 3pt shooting but he was more unstoppable with a mediocre 3 than a more complete 13 LeBron anyway so why does it matter? Honestly, some of the arguments for 13 LeBron over 09 LeBron (mentality, skillset) sounds like the same ones Kobe fans used to argue for him over LeBron.

Also, 2010 Lebron was dealing with an elbow issue at the very end of the season, that lingered throughout the playoffs.

But even still, as you mentioned, the sample size of poor performances is small. Even if you look at 09/10's performance as a whole in the playoffs, it still arguably looks more impressive than 12/13 Lebron (heavier version).

Read on Twitter

[iggymcfrack]

Given what happened to Lebron in the playoffs in surrounding years, 2009 starts looking like a pretty massive outlier in terms of postseason performance. And it makes sense considering it is just 14 games.

Knowing what we know which is that both Lebron's skillset (outside shooting, post game) and mentality grew over the years, it's not difficult to make an argument that 2013 Lebron was better despite having inferior box score and impact stats.

2010: 11.5 BPM, +23.2 on/off
2013: 10.4 BPM, +0.2 on/off

In at least one of the 2 "surrounding years", LeBron had much better playoff numbers than he had in his supposed peak season.

Because LeBron performed so poorly in the embarrassing loss to the Mavs, the narrative is that he had to have learned something following the '11 season that he didn't have before that made him reach his final form. This is the reason so many people refuse to acknowledge 2009 as his peak. When in reality, the 2011 Finals were kind of a fluky event with Bron getting stymied by Rick Carlisle's zone and also deferring too much to Dwyane Wade. It was one underperformance, not a symptom of LeBron failing to reach "championship level" yet.

Here are the playoff game scores grouped from '09 and '13:

Game scores in 2009 playoffs
40+: 2
35-40: 1
30-35: 4
25-30: 4
20-25: 1
15-20: 2
10-15: 0

Game scores in 2013 playoffs
40+: 0
35-40: 0
30-35: 2
25-30: 5
20-25: 9
15-20: 4
10-15: 3

Those just aren't remotely comparable performances. '09 LeBron has 7 games with a game score over 30 and 3 under 25. '13 LeBron has 2 games with a game score over 30 and 16 games under 25. LeBron's 11th best game (out of 14) in '09 has a higher game score than his 5th best game (out of 23) in '13. And then there's the on/off stuff:

'09 Cavs with Bron: +11.6
'09 Cavs w/o Bron: +3.2

'13 Heat with Bron: +7.3
'13 Heat w/o Bron: +7.1

There isn't really much of a coherent case for '13 over '09 other than RANGZZZ and narrative.

[iggymcfrack]

Not sure why you're citing DRtg with KG on the court and not overall DRtg.

Anyways.. it's an obvious outlier. ~8 points/75 more on higher efficiency with fewer turnovers.

Playoffs Per 75

2006 Lebron: 27.8/7.3/5.3 on +2.1 rTS with 4.5 to (13 games)
2007 Lebron: 23.6/7.6/7.5 on -2.5 rTS with 3.1 to (20 games)
2008 Lebron: 27.8/7.7/7.5 on -1.5 rTS with 4.1 to (13 games)
2009 Lebron: 35.6/9.2/7.4 on +7.4 rTS with 2.8 to (14 games) ---> OUTLIER
2010 Lebron: 27.1/8.6/7.1 on +6.4 rTS with 3.5 to (11 games)
2011 Lebron: 22.5/8.0/5.6 on +2.2 rTS with 3.0 to (21 games)
2012 Lebron: 29.0/9.3/5.4 on +4.9 rTS with 3.4 to (23 games)
2013 Lebron: 25.6/8.3/6.5 on +5.0 rTS with 3.0 to (23 games)
2014 Lebron: 30.0/7.7/5.2 on +12.7 rTS with 3.4 to (20 games)
2015 Lebron: 28.3/10.7/8.0 on -4.7 rTS with 3.8 to (20 games)
2016 Lebron: 26.7/9.7/7.7 on +4.4 rTS with 3.6 to (21 games)
2017 Lebron: 29.6/8.3/7.1 on +9.7 rTS with 3.6 to (18 games)
2018 Lebron: 31.9/8.6/8.5 on +6.4 rTS with 4.0 to (22 games)
2020 Lebron: 28.2/11.0/8.9 on +8.2 rTS with 4.1 to (21 games)
2021 Lebron: 24.0/7.4/8.3 on -0.7 rTS with 4.3 to (6 games)
2023 Lebron: 23.3/9.4/6.2 on +0.3 rTS with 2.4 to (16 games)
Career Lebron: 27.6/8.8/7.0 on +3.7 rTS with 3.5 to (282 games)

Mathematically speaking, it’s not an outlier. If you want to colloquially say it was an “outlier,” ok, but basically his whole career is an outlier. Also, it DID happen, and it was done by a GoAT player who also did it in the same regular season. Frankly, if Ben Wallace doesn’t get injured, I think they win title losing maybe 3-4 games.

Lebron has come close to the 2009 RS. Namely in 2010 and 2013 for instance. He's never come close to his 2009 postseason in terms of box score.

Nobody has. It’s a feather in his cap that it was he who did so.

LOL at "whole career is an outlier". What kind of retort is that?

Not sure how you're mathematically figuring out whether something is an outlier. With a p value of 0.05, it's more than two standard deviations from the mean in normally distributed data that's considered an outlier. That's standard practice. But anyways, whether it's mathematically an outlier or not is irrelevant. The point is that no one can reasonably expect Lebron to maintain that kind of production over a larger sample. Let's call it a colloquial outlier if you wish.

As for "nobody has", quite a few players have matched or exceeded Lebron's production if we compare longer playoff peaks than like 14 games. Say 3-year or 5-year playoff peak which is what most serious analysis usually does acknowledging the noise in small samples.

From 2008-2010, this is what LeBron put up in the playoffs:
30.3 PER, .280 WS/48, 13.2 BPM, +18.3 on/off

You think "quite a few players" have matched or exceeded that production? Name me one other than Jordan. Here's a complete list of players who have put up a 13 BPM for even one postseason:

1. LeBron
2. Jordan
3. Hakeem (4 games in a 1st round loss)
4. Kawhi (got injured in middle of run)
5. Dr. J (ABA)
6. Wade (5 games in a first round loss)

That's it. And that's just for one year. Not a 3 year peak like LeBron.