NBA MVP Discussion Thread 2023-24 (Part 4: MVP Thread's Revenge)

[Handlez]

Luka got the Jokic stans in a frenzy.

Oof.

Luka's coming...

[Bob8]

You’re really good at completely ignoring what’s said to talk about something else. The post you quoted pointed out that when Jokic had the worst team around him ever in 21/22, he still had an on court rating of +8.5 while Luka hasn’t cracked +4 in the last 4 seasons with much better talent. That has nothing to do with the off numbers. Regardless of what happens with the bench units, Luka just fails to lead good teams when he’s on the floor.

Jokic playoffs On/Off for career +2.8..... But has a ring.

Luka playoffs On/Off for career +11.8... WCF appearance

According to Jokic's On/Off he's one of the worst playoff performers then, while Luka is a much better leader and performer when it matters?

Interesting to see how are you going wiggle yourself out of this one. Where is the logic in all of this if On/Off tells the entire story about a player and supposed leadership?

First off, I don’t know where you get that +2.8 would be “one of the worst” playoff performers. It’s still very solidly positive. Also, Jokic has a higher NetRtg than Luka in the playoffs. Luka’s on/off is driven entirely by a low “off” number over a very small sample. Luka’s played a total of 28 playoff games. Given superstars’ higher minute averages in the playoffs, you need a larger sample than you would for the regular season to get reliable “off” numbers, but even with a much larger sample than that in the regular season, no one would be discrediting Luka. It’s the 387 games worth of underperforming impact numbers that raises eyebrows.

Luka's on/off number is so good, because Brunson sucked in playoffs against Clippers. That's the main reason he wasn't extended by Mavs. A big mistake, but he was really awful against Clippers.

On/off is just stupid way to measure impact of the player, because it's not only about how you play but how your replacement plays, and how opponents of your replacement play while you're on the bench. If you play well and your replacement sucks, like Brunson has in playoffs, your on/off will be stratospheric.

[Bob8]

Luka got the Jokic stans in a frenzy.

Oof.

Luka's coming...

Stans who totally agree, who's far the best player in Nba in last 4 years and who should win MVP this year?

[AleksandarN]

Luka got the Jokic stans in a frenzy.

Oof.

Luka's coming...

Watch on YouTube

[AleksandarN]

Jokic playoffs On/Off for career +2.8..... But has a ring.

Luka playoffs On/Off for career +11.8... WCF appearance

According to Jokic's On/Off he's one of the worst playoff performers then, while Luka is a much better leader and performer when it matters?

Interesting to see how are you going wiggle yourself out of this one. Where is the logic in all of this if On/Off tells the entire story about a player and supposed leadership?

First off, I don’t know where you get that +2.8 would be “one of the worst” playoff performers. It’s still very solidly positive. Also, Jokic has a higher NetRtg than Luka in the playoffs. Luka’s on/off is driven entirely by a low “off” number over a very small sample. Luka’s played a total of 28 playoff games. Given superstars’ higher minute averages in the playoffs, you need a larger sample than you would for the regular season to get reliable “off” numbers, but even with a much larger sample than that in the regular season, no one would be discrediting Luka. It’s the 387 games worth of underperforming impact numbers that raises eyebrows.

Luka's on/off number is so good, because Brunson sucked in playoffs against Clippers.That's the main reason he wasn't extended by Mavs. A big mistake, but he was really awful against Clippers.

On/off is just stupid way to measure impact of the player, because it's not only about how you play but how your replacement plays, and how opponents of your replacement play while you're on the bench. If you play well and your replacement sucks, like Brunson has in first 2 playoffs, your on/off will be stratospheric.

You don’t have to lie to try and make a point. Man do better

[Bob8]

Jokic just gets wins. Period.

Yeah he won’t win a championship with Barton and Monte Morris as his backcourt but he will manage to squeeze out every last bit of value from his teammates.

It’s what separates him from the pack as he does it year in and year out.

Exactly. Just two seasons ago Jokic carried a roster that featured Monte Morris, Will Barton, Jeff Green, Austin Rivers, Bones Hyland, Facundo Campazzo, JaMyhcal Green, and Davon Reed as part of the 10 man rotation. Only three of those eight guys are even still in the league today. Two of them were starting for Denver that year, and now they're fringe backups playing 15 mpg. Despite that, Jokic took them to 48 wins and the 6th seed, while averaging 27/14/8.

Doncic didn't have a very good roster around him last year, but it was definitely better than that Denver roster from 21/22. The difference is Luka only managed to get them to 38 wins and 11th place.

Yes, we should compare Mavs' worst year in which they even tanked to get Lively and not maybe the same season you're praising Jokic and Mavs made WCF?

I would advise all Luka's haters to look how old he's and then look at what Jokic or some other Goat players did before being 25 years old.

[Bob8]

First off, I don’t know where you get that +2.8 would be “one of the worst” playoff performers. It’s still very solidly positive. Also, Jokic has a higher NetRtg than Luka in the playoffs. Luka’s on/off is driven entirely by a low “off” number over a very small sample. Luka’s played a total of 28 playoff games. Given superstars’ higher minute averages in the playoffs, you need a larger sample than you would for the regular season to get reliable “off” numbers, but even with a much larger sample than that in the regular season, no one would be discrediting Luka. It’s the 387 games worth of underperforming impact numbers that raises eyebrows.

Luka's on/off number is so good, because Brunson sucked in playoffs against Clippers.That's the main reason he wasn't extended by Mavs. A big mistake, but he was really awful against Clippers.

On/off is just stupid way to measure impact of the player, because it's not only about how you play but how your replacement plays, and how opponents of your replacement play while you're on the bench. If you play well and your replacement sucks, like Brunson has in first 2 playoffs, your on/off will be stratospheric.

You don’t have to lie to try and make a point. Man do better

I remember that he was incredibly bad against Clippers, I went to check and it was first playoffs against Clippers with - 25 net rtg. I admit, I was partially wrong. But on/off argument still stands, that skyrocketed Luka's on/off.

[Bob8]

Luka got the Jokic stans in a frenzy.

Oof.

Luka's coming...

Watch on YouTube

You have wrong target here. I'm pretty big Jokic's fan and totally agree that he's far the best player in Nba in last 4 years.

[AleksandarN]

Luka's on/off number is so good, because Brunson sucked in playoffs against Clippers.That's the main reason he wasn't extended by Mavs. A big mistake, but he was really awful against Clippers.

On/off is just stupid way to measure impact of the player, because it's not only about how you play but how your replacement plays, and how opponents of your replacement play while you're on the bench. If you play well and your replacement sucks, like Brunson has in first 2 playoffs, your on/off will be stratospheric.

You don’t have to lie to try and make a point. Man do better

I remember that he was incredibly bad 1 year, I went to check and it was first playoffs against Clippers with - 25 net rtg. I admit, I was partially wrong. But on/off argument still stands, that skyrocketed Luka's on/off.

That’s not why mavs didn’t resign him. Don’t make up stuff. Look I like Luka. Luka will tell you Jokic is best in the league.

[AleksandarN]

Luka got the Jokic stans in a frenzy.

Oof.

Luka's coming...

Watch on YouTube

You have wrong target here. I'm pretty big Jokic's fan and totally agree that he's far the best player in Nba in last 4 years.

I wasn’t replying to you.

[Bob8]

You don’t have to lie to try and make a point. Man do better

I remember that he was incredibly bad 1 year, I went to check and it was first playoffs against Clippers with - 25 net rtg. I admit, I was partially wrong. But on/off argument still stands, that skyrocketed Luka's on/off.

That’s not why mavs didn’t resign him. Don’t make up stuff. Look I like Luka. Luka will tell you Jokic is best in the league.

Mavs weren't sure about Brunson, they didn't want to give him 55/4 after that year. And I would think that struggling against Clippers length was part of the reason. He was great in next playoffs, but it was too late by then, he already made the deal with Knicks.

[zero rings]

That's an interesting observation. If we go back to '19-20, which began Luka's prime and remains the Mavs' best season by SRS, here are the players who have been all-stars in that time who have the most -20 or worse games:

Nikola Vucevic 31
De'Aaron Fox 31
Julius Randle 28
Domantas Sabonis 27
Andrew Wiggins 26
Dejounte Murray 26
Zach LaVine 26
DeMar DeRozan 26
Luka Doncic 24
Russell Westbrook 23

And here are the other guys in the poll by this metric:

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander 18
Anthony Edwards 14 (began in '20-21)
Donovan Mitchell 13
Jayson Tatum 13
Jalen Brunson 12
Giannis Antetokounmpo 11
Nikola Jokic 7
Kawhi Leonard 6

I'm not going to ascribe specific meaning to this stat, but I'd never thought to query it before and it's interesting.

While I'm at it, here are the leaders in this all-star only stat for the entire history we have the stat (back to '96-97):

Antawn Jamison 73
Joe Johnson 67
Antoine Walker 66
Carmelo Anthony 64
Shareef Abdur-Rahim 63
Nikola Vucevic 63
Julius Randle 62
DeMar DeRozan 61
Vince Carter 60
Tyson Chandler 59

(One thing I can't help but marvel at is the current Chicago Big 3, on a list dominated by players who retired a good while ago, two (Vucevic, DeRozan) of the 3 modern all-stars in the Top 10 are theirs, and their 3rd (Lavine) is the next active player on the list at 58. This isn't a situation where these guys are there just because of they've done this a lot together, the Bulls' organization specifically assembled their team around a trio of guys who did the MAJORITY of this before they came to the Windy City, and did this in the era of analytics while it was clear that fit - which I would say eyes can predict better than numbers - was going to be a major concern. I have to say that with Karnisovas doubling down on Vucevic, I might consider the Bulls to be the worst run organization in the NBA at this time. The team itself isn't terrible so I don't want to act like it is, but the idea that they actually acquired these guys to lead their team in this day and age just feels so behind the times and damaging. )

Anyway, this is making think it would be interesting to look at player variance in game +/-, which I also don't think I've ever done. It's entirely possible that some players have their cume +/- significantly hurt because of a tendency to just not have it, for whatever reason, on any given night. The fact that legacy is determined by the playoffs where a) the player knows it's more important and b) you really only have "have it" >50% of the time means that cume +/- might in effect underrate some players.

Incidentally, this is part of what inspired me to make the stat I call OnWin - games where you have a positive +/- (typically with 24 MP threshold) - because I thought that a guy like Kobe might just be more focused on winning than on maxing out advantage every possession, and I think there's some truth to the theory.:

By career RS OnWin, Kobe ranks 5th. By career RS +/-, Kobe ranks 16th. Kobe looks better by OnWins.
(ftr Duncan, LeBron, Dirk & CP3 are the top 4 in some order both times.)

And because I have long had similar thoughts about Luka - and thus that +/- may be shown to underrate him - I have looked at him periodically too. If we focus on the '18-19 forward:

Luka ranks 14th by OnWins, but 48th by +/-. Luka looks better by OnWins.
(ftr Giannis, Tatum, Jokic & Gobert are the top 4 in some order both times.)

Great post! I didn’t know these numbers off the top of my head, but it’s something I’ve noticed following Luka over the years. If he doesn’t have it going offensively the Mavs tend to get smoked with him on the court.

That list of players is exactly who you would expect lol. A bunch of high volume shooters who don’t play any defense. Luka is the best of this bunch because his “on” nights are so ridiculously good, but he needs to become a more well rounded player if he’s going to live up to expectations.

Don't you think that players age should be in consideration too? "Prime" Luka was 20 years old, when 2019 season started. Jokic was 24, Giannis almost 26, Kawhi 28...It looks very fair comparison.

If you're arguing he's the MVP, why does it matter how old he is? He either is or he isn't.

If Luka is a better player in the future we can give the award to him then.

[Sgt Major]

https://www.reddit.com/r/nba/s/c4HUTeYQUM

[zero rings]

Jokic playoffs On/Off for career +2.8..... But has a ring.

Luka playoffs On/Off for career +11.8... WCF appearance

According to Jokic's On/Off he's one of the worst playoff performers then, while Luka is a much better leader and performer when it matters?

Interesting to see how are you going wiggle yourself out of this one. Where is the logic in all of this if On/Off tells the entire story about a player and supposed leadership?

First off, I don’t know where you get that +2.8 would be “one of the worst” playoff performers. It’s still very solidly positive. Also, Jokic has a higher NetRtg than Luka in the playoffs. Luka’s on/off is driven entirely by a low “off” number over a very small sample. Luka’s played a total of 28 playoff games. Given superstars’ higher minute averages in the playoffs, you need a larger sample than you would for the regular season to get reliable “off” numbers, but even with a much larger sample than that in the regular season, no one would be discrediting Luka. It’s the 387 games worth of underperforming impact numbers that raises eyebrows.

Luka's on/off number is so good, because Brunson sucked in playoffs against Clippers. That's the main reason he wasn't extended by Mavs. A big mistake, but he was really awful against Clippers.

On/off is just stupid way to measure impact of the player, because it's not only about how you play but how your replacement plays, and how opponents of your replacement play while you're on the bench. If you play well and your replacement sucks, like Brunson has in first 2 playoffs, your on/off will be stratospheric.

The Mavs have been a pretty mediocre team with Luka on the floor throughout his career (+2.4 OnCourt). So yeah, if you want to argue he's the MVP of the league he better have some stratospheric on/off numbers. Because otherwise the impact signals just aren't there to support it.

You're essentially arguing that Luka is a statistical anomaly in the play-by-play era. That he's an MVP but his impact can't be detected by the scoreboard.

[Bob8]

Great post! I didn’t know these numbers off the top of my head, but it’s something I’ve noticed following Luka over the years. If he doesn’t have it going offensively the Mavs tend to get smoked with him on the court.

That list of players is exactly who you would expect lol. A bunch of high volume shooters who don’t play any defense. Luka is the best of this bunch because his “on” nights are so ridiculously good, but he needs to become a more well rounded player if he’s going to live up to expectations.

Don't you think that players age should be in consideration too? "Prime" Luka was 20 years old, when 2019 season started. Jokic was 24, Giannis almost 26, Kawhi 28...It looks very fair comparison.

If you're arguing he's the MVP, why does it matter how old he is? He either is or he isn't.

If Luka is a better player in the future we can give the award to him then.

Don't you think that comparing a period in which 1 player is 20 years old at the start and some others 25+ and already winning MVP and a ring is somewhat odd?

[Bob8]

First off, I don’t know where you get that +2.8 would be “one of the worst” playoff performers. It’s still very solidly positive. Also, Jokic has a higher NetRtg than Luka in the playoffs. Luka’s on/off is driven entirely by a low “off” number over a very small sample. Luka’s played a total of 28 playoff games. Given superstars’ higher minute averages in the playoffs, you need a larger sample than you would for the regular season to get reliable “off” numbers, but even with a much larger sample than that in the regular season, no one would be discrediting Luka. It’s the 387 games worth of underperforming impact numbers that raises eyebrows.

Luka's on/off number is so good, because Brunson sucked in playoffs against Clippers. That's the main reason he wasn't extended by Mavs. A big mistake, but he was really awful against Clippers.

On/off is just stupid way to measure impact of the player, because it's not only about how you play but how your replacement plays, and how opponents of your replacement play while you're on the bench. If you play well and your replacement sucks, like Brunson has in first 2 playoffs, your on/off will be stratospheric.

The Mavs have been a pretty mediocre team with Luka on the floor throughout his career (+2.4 OnCourt). So yeah, if you want to argue he's the MVP of the league he better have some stratospheric on/off numbers. Because otherwise the impact signals just aren't there to support it.

You're essentially arguing that Luka is a statistical anomaly in the play-by-play era. That he's an MVP but his impact can't be detected by the scoreboard.

Look, he was 4x in a row in First All Nba team. So it looks to me that voters kinda believe that he's good. He wouldn't have made even 3rd All Nba team once, if on/off was the measure for quality. It looks to me that's not exactly the case. Luckily for Luka Doctor MJ and some others are not voters.

I explained to you how on/off works, if your replacement is teams' second best player. And yes, teams are not normally built like Mavs are. They try to complement their best payer with other players. Having 2 iso stars, who are not best defenders, in the same position, is for sure not optimal. Mavs were always guard heavy and very thin with defensive wings and bigs, that's probably the reason for struggling in D. They did addressed this problem with drafting Lively and trading for Gafford and Washington. They should be much more competitive in that department in next years.

You can bring arguments against my view on on/off or not. Anyway, you're entitled to have your own opinion, like me. Like everyone.

[Zadeh]

Jokic playoffs On/Off for career +2.8..... But has a ring.

Luka playoffs On/Off for career +11.8... WCF appearance

According to Jokic's On/Off he's one of the worst playoff performers then, while Luka is a much better leader and performer when it matters?

Interesting to see how are you going wiggle yourself out of this one. Where is the logic in all of this if On/Off tells the entire story about a player and supposed leadership?

Perhaps Jokic should do what Doncic did.
Instead of facing a tough opponent, he goes on the injured list and stays out of the playoffs.

It also works with the MVP race. Don't play against strong opponents because it is bad for the fan base.

[Bob8]

Jokic playoffs On/Off for career +2.8..... But has a ring.

Luka playoffs On/Off for career +11.8... WCF appearance

According to Jokic's On/Off he's one of the worst playoff performers then, while Luka is a much better leader and performer when it matters?

Interesting to see how are you going wiggle yourself out of this one. Where is the logic in all of this if On/Off tells the entire story about a player and supposed leadership?

Perhaps Jokic should do what Doncic did.
Instead of facing a tough opponent, he goes on the injured list and stays out of the playoffs.

It also works with the MVP race. Don't play against strong opponents because it is bad for the fan base.

Do you understand, that late Mavs' tanking has brought Lively and Gafford to the Mavs? I would say the best decision FO did in last 5 years.

[MMyhre]

https://www.reddit.com/r/nba/s/c4HUTeYQUM

Gotta go to Jokic now. Shai has lost the plot when he is doing stuff like that.

[RB34]

Luka got the Jokic stans in a frenzy.

Oof.

Luka's coming...

Do people actually think the voters will give it to Luka? Not likely after last year.

Nuggs tied 1 in the West, Mavs the 8 seed.