2023-24 Season Discussion and Speculation 5 - the calm before the storm

[dremill24]

What is the effectiveness of a Nurk, Bol, KD front line? It seems to be disruptive. Small sample size i know.

Might be my BolBolBias acting up tho.

NBA.com has them at +23.8 net rating in a whopping 30mins as a trio (not taking the other 2 players into account).

[Ghost of Kleine]

Now we just need to utilize the draft cleverly to add rangy, switchable lockdown defenders. AND some more athletic, physical talents / rim protection with size, versatility.

I think we ending in TOP 6 in our conference , so pick would be 18-22

The draft would be weak so I didn’t see any chance to steal like Brandin in previous draft

The draft isn't flush with high end star/superstar level talent. BUT it's still solid with complimentary role players, bench contributors, and even some potential fringe starter/rotation impact options IF scouted carefully. Now for my part I have us finishing somewhere in the early to mid 20s' (20-26 range) and would strongly suggest a "trade back scenario" to try and pick up an additional pick in the 2nd, or some modicum of additional assets to try and address our positional depth issues with young athletic prospects that are actually cost controlled with consideration to our financial situation.

There'll also be a number of really impactful versatile players available from the undrafted pool that we could sign via two ways and exhibit 10s' etc to fill out our bench with long, very athletic, high motor skilled switchable prospects.
(I have my positional lists with more ranges, etc coming yet for the frontcourt options and other outlier hidden gems to be considered).

[Hitachi77]

Long way to go still, but it kind of looks like the Clippers are selling out for the 4 seed. They just sat Kawhi and PG out of nowhere. Just seems like they are happy with the 4 and want to make sure they are healthy for the playoffs.

I think that is good for us because at this point I think we are unlikely to get the 5. Just considering the schedule and how many teams we are fighting for it, and the fact that we are already a couple games back. In a perfect world we get the 6, or the 7 and win the first playin game. And Denver / Minny end up at the 2 / 3 respectively.

I know that’s a lot, and the most important thing is we take care of business and get in the playoffs. Just talking the perfect scenario.

[Fifii]

My opinion is that we are terrible in 4Q because on the begging RS , Vogel had badly rotations players. Our best players were exhausted because usually they are playing all 4Q. Now I see , rotations is better , but still they are playing heavy minutes ( 35.7 MPG Jayson vs 37.2 MPG KD ) and many actions is iso. If you added fact that our Mr Street Clothes back recently and defended opponent was focused on our duo ( sometimes alone KD ) so we have what we have.

[Frank Lee]

I have never been a fan of rotations that are scheduled by the time clock. I know it has become popular. I’d argue match ups, score, and over all flow of the game should be determining criteria, as well as performance and responsibility. Ie, if you are f-n up, out you come. Injury and foul troubles over ride everything.

We have but a handful of games left, and yet Vogel still puts odd non functioning line ups on the court. He lets games slip away by adhering to his rigid time lines. A rested KD or Book is a good thing, but not at the expense of blowing a lead or dropping to an insurmountable deficit. Give these guys 2-3 minute blows rather than sitting half a quarter.

Vrs Boston, Nurk (27mins) sat almost the entire fourth Q. Then put in with less than 2 mins to go. .??? Our offense is stagnant without him. And it’s not like thy were small balling as they had Horford (32 mins) and Kornet (19 mins) in.

just think it’s lazy neglectful coaching and a certain downfall

[Ghost of Kleine]

Everyone can relax! For anyone who might be very concerned about the lack of a playmaking connective big man option to help facilitate and iniate offense for our players/bench If Nurkic gets injured or is in foul trouble, I Just wanted you guys to know that I've found a solution(for our beench) in the 2nd coming of Fan favorite unathletic plodder Dario Saric that we can add from the undrafted pool (on the cheap) with one of our two ways. I promise that he's every bit as plodding and vertically challenged as Dario was, But even a bit more doughy and looking like a YMCA allstar. Also not a strong defender, but on the flip side, He's much more skilled as a connective big (passer/offensive iniator) and a much better overall 3 pt shooter than Dario was for us during his time here! The prospect that I'm talking about who looks like the "lovechild of Dario Saric and Kurt Rambis is .................................................................

Robbie Avila (Indiana State)
https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/players/robbie-avila-1.html
https://www.noceilingsnba.com/p/five-unique-prospects-with-a-shot

Robbie Avila, 6’10”, Sophomore, Indiana State
2023-2024 Stats: 15.5 PPG, 6.5 RPG, 4.0 APG, 2.1 TOV, 0.6 BPG, 0.5 SPG

Shooting Splits: 56.7/44.4/73.5

Watch on YouTube

What Makes Him So Special?

Robbie Avila doesn’t look like most college basketball players. Imagine the seventh man on a seventh-grade B-Team. Now make him 6’10”. That’s what Robbie Avila looks like, except he’s one of the most destructive forces in mid-major basketball. Strip away any preconceived notions that your brain generated due to his frame and his sports goggles, and it immediately becomes evident that the dude can hoop.

Avila has outstanding feel. His 4.0 APG, near 2-to-1 assist-to-turnover ratio and 26.3 AST% are all uncanny numbers for a big man. When a handoff set sees Avila get the ball above the break, it’s a problem for the opposing defense. He’s a fantastic top-of-the-key orchestrator. His defender can’t sag off him because he’s always a threat to shoot (44.4% from three on 3.3 per game), and few players in the country can wire bounce passes to backdoor cutters like he can. Avila has also demonstrated short-roll playmaking capabilities, which is aided by his willingness to make good contact on screens. While he’s not the most explosive straight-line driver, he’s shown some downhill craft with his handle and footwork and getting past his man with a pump fake.

So, What’s the Hold Up?

Robbie Avila may be on the wrong side of an athletic cliff when it comes to an NBA projection. Avila, listed at 240 pounds, has a bit of a doughy physique. He doesn’t have the interior power that a player like Luka Garza brought to the table. He’s slow end-to-end and doesn’t pick up his feet when he runs. He’ll be slow to get up and down the floor, a non-negotiable at the next level. Avila doesn’t get off the floor high or quickly, making him one of the more ground-bound bigs in college hoops. His 2.2 BLK% is a number more common for a wing prospect and not one I’ve ever seen for a true center.

Projection

Avila needs to make a massive improvement to his fitness, and even then, I’m still not sure if he has the athleticism to scale up. Aly Khalifa was a similarly dazzling, high-feel, mid-major big man, and he’s had a hard time getting more than 20 MPG at a Big 12 school. The curve for bigs who struggle defensively is steep, and the offensive output has to be outrageous to cover for deficiencies on the other end. What Avila does have going for him relative to Khalifa is that I believe him to be a more natural lateral mover and think that he does better moving backward as well. Avila will always have a level of feel that can’t be taught and a level of skill that players work a lifetime to achieve. I’m always leery of betting against the combination of height, skill, and feel, and Avila has all three. His physical shortcomings make him a longshot but writing him off with so much time left on his pre-draft clock could be foolish.

Just compare both players' statistical production and percentages to see the glaring similarities:
Dario Saric
https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/s/saricda01.html,

Robbie Avila
https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/players/robbie-avila-1.html
Lastly, check out (the eye test on their clear similarities in low end athleticism, slow foot speed, bulky build. BUT ALSO The high IQ plays, spectacular passing, effort and floor spacing.

Watch on YouTube

Now of course we'd need a strong/physical/athletic rim protecting presence to cover for Avilas' athletic and lateral mobility issues, BUT honestly we could simply add any of Aziz Bandaogo, Cliff Omoruyi, Ugonna Kingsley Onyenso, etc from the undrafted pool to provide defensive coverage playing alongside of him. Or if Avila plays at the backup 5, then any of these strong rim protecting 4/5 options: Johnni Broome, Drew Pember, Javier Francis, Isiah Cozart, Amari Williams, etc.

[Djedefre]

Day by day, we're getting closer to that spectacular FRE

[Biff]

Everyone can relax! For anyone who might be very concerned about the lack of a playmaking connective big man option to help facilitate and iniate offense for our players/bench If Nurkic gets injured or is in foul trouble, I Just wanted you guys to know that I've found a solution(for our beench) in the 2nd coming of Fan favorite unathletic plodder Dario Saric that we can add from the undrafted pool (on the cheap) with one of our two ways. I promise that he's every bit as plodding and vertically challenged as Dario was, But even a bit more doughy and looking like a YMCA allstar. Also not a strong defender, but on the flip side, He's much more skilled as a connective big (passer/offensive iniator) and a much better overall 3 pt shooter than Dario was for us during his time here! The prospect that I'm talking about who looks like the "lovechild of Dario Saric and Kurt Rambis is .................................................................

Robbie Avila (Indiana State)
https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/players/robbie-avila-1.html
https://www.noceilingsnba.com/p/five-unique-prospects-with-a-shot

Robbie Avila, 6’10”, Sophomore, Indiana State
2023-2024 Stats: 15.5 PPG, 6.5 RPG, 4.0 APG, 2.1 TOV, 0.6 BPG, 0.5 SPG

Shooting Splits: 56.7/44.4/73.5

Watch on YouTube

What Makes Him So Special?

Robbie Avila doesn’t look like most college basketball players. Imagine the seventh man on a seventh-grade B-Team. Now make him 6’10”. That’s what Robbie Avila looks like, except he’s one of the most destructive forces in mid-major basketball. Strip away any preconceived notions that your brain generated due to his frame and his sports goggles, and it immediately becomes evident that the dude can hoop.

Avila has outstanding feel. His 4.0 APG, near 2-to-1 assist-to-turnover ratio and 26.3 AST% are all uncanny numbers for a big man. When a handoff set sees Avila get the ball above the break, it’s a problem for the opposing defense. He’s a fantastic top-of-the-key orchestrator. His defender can’t sag off him because he’s always a threat to shoot (44.4% from three on 3.3 per game), and few players in the country can wire bounce passes to backdoor cutters like he can. Avila has also demonstrated short-roll playmaking capabilities, which is aided by his willingness to make good contact on screens. While he’s not the most explosive straight-line driver, he’s shown some downhill craft with his handle and footwork and getting past his man with a pump fake.

So, What’s the Hold Up?

Robbie Avila may be on the wrong side of an athletic cliff when it comes to an NBA projection. Avila, listed at 240 pounds, has a bit of a doughy physique. He doesn’t have the interior power that a player like Luka Garza brought to the table. He’s slow end-to-end and doesn’t pick up his feet when he runs. He’ll be slow to get up and down the floor, a non-negotiable at the next level. Avila doesn’t get off the floor high or quickly, making him one of the more ground-bound bigs in college hoops. His 2.2 BLK% is a number more common for a wing prospect and not one I’ve ever seen for a true center.

Projection

Avila needs to make a massive improvement to his fitness, and even then, I’m still not sure if he has the athleticism to scale up. Aly Khalifa was a similarly dazzling, high-feel, mid-major big man, and he’s had a hard time getting more than 20 MPG at a Big 12 school. The curve for bigs who struggle defensively is steep, and the offensive output has to be outrageous to cover for deficiencies on the other end. What Avila does have going for him relative to Khalifa is that I believe him to be a more natural lateral mover and think that he does better moving backward as well. Avila will always have a level of feel that can’t be taught and a level of skill that players work a lifetime to achieve. I’m always leery of betting against the combination of height, skill, and feel, and Avila has all three. His physical shortcomings make him a longshot but writing him off with so much time left on his pre-draft clock could be foolish.

Just compare both players' statistical production and percentages to see the glaring similarities:
Dario Saric
https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/s/saricda01.html,

Robbie Avila
https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/players/robbie-avila-1.html
Lastly, check out (the eye test on their clear similarities in low end athleticism, slow foot speed, bulky build. BUT ALSO The high IQ plays, spectacular passing, effort and floor spacing.

Watch on YouTube

Now of course we'd need a strong/physical/athletic rim protecting presence to cover for Avilas' athletic and lateral mobility issues, BUT honestly we could simply add any of Aziz Bandaogo, Cliff Omoruyi, Ugonna Kingsley Onyenso, etc from the undrafted pool to provide defensive coverage playing alongside of him. Or if Avila plays at the backup 5, then any of these strong rim protecting 4/5 options: Johnni Broome, Drew Pember, Javier Francis, Isiah Cozart, Amari Williams, etc.

I've caught a few of his games and I like watching him play but there's zero chance he can stay on the court in the NBA. Maybe in the 90's when the game was a little slower. But even then he'd get killed down low. Kid would need to hire a personal trainer that pushes him hard and probably needs to hop on the sauce to have any chance at all at developing the kind of body he'd need.

Edit: Also, I realize people thought the same about Jokic but it's obvious they were wrong. Jokic has been surprisingly a solid defender, just not a shot blocker. Avila does not look like he will be able to defend anyone in the NBA.

[Ghost of Kleine]

Everyone can relax! For anyone who might be very concerned about the lack of a playmaking connective big man option to help facilitate and iniate offense for our players/bench If Nurkic gets injured or is in foul trouble, I Just wanted you guys to know that I've found a solution(for our beench) in the 2nd coming of Fan favorite unathletic plodder Dario Saric that we can add from the undrafted pool (on the cheap) with one of our two ways. I promise that he's every bit as plodding and vertically challenged as Dario was, But even a bit more doughy and looking like a YMCA allstar. Also not a strong defender, but on the flip side, He's much more skilled as a connective big (passer/offensive iniator) and a much better overall 3 pt shooter than Dario was for us during his time here! The prospect that I'm talking about who looks like the "lovechild of Dario Saric and Kurt Rambis is .................................................................

Robbie Avila (Indiana State)
https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/players/robbie-avila-1.html
https://www.noceilingsnba.com/p/five-unique-prospects-with-a-shot

Robbie Avila, 6’10”, Sophomore, Indiana State
2023-2024 Stats: 15.5 PPG, 6.5 RPG, 4.0 APG, 2.1 TOV, 0.6 BPG, 0.5 SPG

Shooting Splits: 56.7/44.4/73.5

Watch on YouTube

What Makes Him So Special?

Robbie Avila doesn’t look like most college basketball players. Imagine the seventh man on a seventh-grade B-Team. Now make him 6’10”. That’s what Robbie Avila looks like, except he’s one of the most destructive forces in mid-major basketball. Strip away any preconceived notions that your brain generated due to his frame and his sports goggles, and it immediately becomes evident that the dude can hoop.

Avila has outstanding feel. His 4.0 APG, near 2-to-1 assist-to-turnover ratio and 26.3 AST% are all uncanny numbers for a big man. When a handoff set sees Avila get the ball above the break, it’s a problem for the opposing defense. He’s a fantastic top-of-the-key orchestrator. His defender can’t sag off him because he’s always a threat to shoot (44.4% from three on 3.3 per game), and few players in the country can wire bounce passes to backdoor cutters like he can. Avila has also demonstrated short-roll playmaking capabilities, which is aided by his willingness to make good contact on screens. While he’s not the most explosive straight-line driver, he’s shown some downhill craft with his handle and footwork and getting past his man with a pump fake.

So, What’s the Hold Up?

Robbie Avila may be on the wrong side of an athletic cliff when it comes to an NBA projection. Avila, listed at 240 pounds, has a bit of a doughy physique. He doesn’t have the interior power that a player like Luka Garza brought to the table. He’s slow end-to-end and doesn’t pick up his feet when he runs. He’ll be slow to get up and down the floor, a non-negotiable at the next level. Avila doesn’t get off the floor high or quickly, making him one of the more ground-bound bigs in college hoops. His 2.2 BLK% is a number more common for a wing prospect and not one I’ve ever seen for a true center.

Projection

Avila needs to make a massive improvement to his fitness, and even then, I’m still not sure if he has the athleticism to scale up. Aly Khalifa was a similarly dazzling, high-feel, mid-major big man, and he’s had a hard time getting more than 20 MPG at a Big 12 school. The curve for bigs who struggle defensively is steep, and the offensive output has to be outrageous to cover for deficiencies on the other end. What Avila does have going for him relative to Khalifa is that I believe him to be a more natural lateral mover and think that he does better moving backward as well. Avila will always have a level of feel that can’t be taught and a level of skill that players work a lifetime to achieve. I’m always leery of betting against the combination of height, skill, and feel, and Avila has all three. His physical shortcomings make him a longshot but writing him off with so much time left on his pre-draft clock could be foolish.

Just compare both players' statistical production and percentages to see the glaring similarities:
Dario Saric
https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/s/saricda01.html,

Robbie Avila
https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/players/robbie-avila-1.html
Lastly, check out (the eye test on their clear similarities in low end athleticism, slow foot speed, bulky build. BUT ALSO The high IQ plays, spectacular passing, effort and floor spacing.

Watch on YouTube

Now of course we'd need a strong/physical/athletic rim protecting presence to cover for Avilas' athletic and lateral mobility issues, BUT honestly we could simply add any of Aziz Bandaogo, Cliff Omoruyi, Ugonna Kingsley Onyenso, etc from the undrafted pool to provide defensive coverage playing alongside of him. Or if Avila plays at the backup 5, then any of these strong rim protecting 4/5 options: Johnni Broome, Drew Pember, Javier Francis, Isiah Cozart, Amari Williams, etc.

I've caught a few of his games and I like watching him play but there's zero chance he can stay on the court in the NBA. Maybe in the 90's when the game was a little slower. But even then he'd get killed down low. Kid would need to hire a personal trainer that pushes him hard and probably needs to hop on the sauce to have any chance at all at developing the kind of body he'd need.

Edit: Also, I realize people thought the same about Jokic but it's obvious they were wrong. Jokic has been surprisingly a solid defender, just not a shot blocker. Avila does not look like he will be able to defend anyone in the NBA.

For sure every concern that you mentioned is absolutely valid! An athlete is far from anything that he is in current form. AND he'd absolutely need a top noth strength and conditioning program to hang consistently with NBA level athletes. However his passing acumen, basketball IQ and processing ability are already top notch and decent foundational pieces that could be built upon. I do believe that his game could actually be successful or remotely impactful in spite of his glaring athletic and conditioning concerns.

I say this because his elite complimentary skills are really not really predicated upon any legitimate athleticism, but rather high basketball IQ, a high level of "in game situational processing" and fundamentals. And most importantly him being a threat as a big man floor spacer! Now currently I can see two reasonable avenues for him being at least moderately impactful in a bench role as a high post offensive initiator or a clever secondary short roll initiator/ floor spacer. With respect to his significant athletic limitations and conditioning issues:

1- IF a team has an interest in drafting him, they'd be best served to also add a strong, athletic, long, quick 4/5 option that can play off of Avila in the post due to his floor spacing abilities and can also roam a bit defensively and help cover for his athletic shortcomings. Now it just so happens that I have identified multiple high end physical, long, vertically explosive and skilled 4/5 options as well as high end potential shotblockers for a 5 option if he were to be utilized at the 4 in a role similar to a slightly shorter Muscala or a very close facsimile to Dario Saric. These intruiging long athletic defensive big options would represent a perfect balanced compliment to his high end floor spacing and passing skillset.

2- Sign him to an exhibit 10 deal or a summer league deal to explore his adaptive trajectory, then stash him in the G league on our new imminent G League affiliate and instruct the strength and conditioning trainers to focus heavily on him. He's already got decent size/girth at 6'10 240lbs, and his fundamentals, IQ, processing ability, floor spacing and court vision are high end. I'd take that swing and let the NBAs' top notch trainers get him in better shape and we might have a strong complimentary asset for our bench going forward.

Now all this being said, I want to b clear that I wouldn't under any circumstances burn a 1st or 2nd on Avila. But at the most minimal cost of being an unsigned/undrafted swing option for our new G league affiliate, No real big risk there! And If he pans out, then we'd have just added a premium cost controlled asset to leverage.

[sunsbg]

WC play-in tournament starts tonight.

[Fifii]

https://nbarankings.theringer.com/

This is kind of weird , we have ( in this ranking ) two players in TOP 10. Neither team hasn’t two players in TOP 10 ( except us ) and we are Play - In Team.

LOL, where is the problem ? Maybe I have a right that Vogel is main issue.

[Calvin Klein]

https://nbarankings.theringer.com/

This is kind of weird , we have ( in this ranking ) two players in TOP 10. Neither team hasn’t two players in TOP 10 ( except us ) and we are Play - In Team.

LOL, where is the problem ? Maybe I have a right that Vogel is main issue.

The problem is that you need a proper team to be good. Individual stars alone don't make a good team. See also: Lakers.

[Saberestar]

The Pelicans lost at home against the Cavs, we are in a good position to close the gap with them for the 5th place.

Too many games left and we have a bunch of matchups against West rivals, it's gonna be an a fan month until the playoffs.

[sunsbg]

A bit more cushion for that 8th spot. Kings missing a few key players beat Lakers. Mavs win against Curry-less Warriors, but sounds like Luka's injured.

[Saberestar]

A bit more cushion for that 8th spot. Kings missing a few key players beat Lakers. Mavs win against Curry-less Warriors, but sounds like Luka's injured.

It's looking more and more clear that Lakers and Warriors will be 9th and 10th and that's great for our aspirations.

[Mr Puddles]

A bit more cushion for that 8th spot. Kings missing a few key players beat Lakers. Mavs win against Curry-less Warriors, but sounds like Luka's injured.

It's looking more and more clear that Lakers and Warriors will be 9th and 10th and that's great for our aspirations.

Pelicans losing is underrated, since we still have two games left against them (which will also determine the tie breaker) we very much have our own fate in our hands.

King Suns game (second to last in the season) will potentially be huge. Winner gets the tie breaker.

3rd and 4th last games of the season are against the clippers. Don't laugh at me now, but we have an outside chance of overtaking them considering that's a 2 game swing, might determine the tie breaker, and Leonard just got injured so may miss some time. Currently we're trailing them by 3.5 games. Outside shot, I know, so time for this team to channel the bubble team and beat the odds.

If the Suns take care of the kings and pelicans, games we'll be in a good position.

[Fifii]

I think that the better is 6th place than 5th when we could avoid George and Kawhi in first round. Probably they are will have some rest nad stuck in 4th place. The best scenerio is 1. Denver , 4. George and Kawhi so we can avoid these teams until WCF

[spanishninja]

A bit more cushion for that 8th spot. Kings missing a few key players beat Lakers. Mavs win against Curry-less Warriors, but sounds like Luka's injured.

It's looking more and more clear that Lakers and Warriors will be 9th and 10th and that's great for our aspirations.

Pelicans losing is underrated, since we still have two games left against them (which will also determine the tie breaker) we very much have our own fate in our hands.

King Suns game (second to last in the season) will potentially be huge. Winner gets the tie breaker.

3rd and 4th last games of the season are against the clippers. Don't laugh at me now, but we have an outside chance of overtaking them considering that's a 2 game swing, might determine the tie breaker, and Leonard just got injured so may miss some time. Currently we're trailing them by 3.5 games. Outside shot, I know, so time for this team to channel the bubble team and beat the odds.

If the Suns take care of the kings and pelicans, games we'll be in a good position.

we definitely need to win that game against the Kings. **** lakers and bucks both **** the bed this week

[bwgood77]

https://nbarankings.theringer.com/

This is kind of weird , we have ( in this ranking ) two players in TOP 10. Neither team hasn’t two players in TOP 10 ( except us ) and we are Play - In Team.

LOL, where is the problem ? Maybe I have a right that Vogel is main issue.

Injuries, depth, defense.

Sengun is WAY too low. Lillard maybe too high at this point. I think George is better than Murray too.

[bwgood77]

A bit more cushion for that 8th spot. Kings missing a few key players beat Lakers. Mavs win against Curry-less Warriors, but sounds like Luka's injured.

It's looking more and more clear that Lakers and Warriors will be 9th and 10th and that's great for our aspirations.

Pelicans losing is underrated, since we still have two games left against them (which will also determine the tie breaker) we very much have our own fate in our hands.

King Suns game (second to last in the season) will potentially be huge. Winner gets the tie breaker.

3rd and 4th last games of the season are against the clippers. Don't laugh at me now, but we have an outside chance of overtaking them considering that's a 2 game swing, might determine the tie breaker, and Leonard just got injured so may miss some time. Currently we're trailing them by 3.5 games. Outside shot, I know, so time for this team to channel the bubble team and beat the odds.

If the Suns take care of the kings and pelicans, games we'll be in a good position.

Yeah, I have a feeling we are going to play them again, and once again maybe without Kawhi. It seems like a recurring theme. I wonder how serious is thoracic spasms are.