The Jazz's crossroads

[HadAnEffectHere]

The Jazz intentionally sabotaged their team to tank for their pick back instead of adding pieces and Lauri Markkanen has been publicly very unhappy about this.

So the Jazz are at a cross-roads it seems. Do they add pieces around Markkanen and Sexton or trade Markkanen and Sexton for picks to ultra tank for the next several seasons?

Lauri has not great trade value this offseason because he has a small expiring contract. He will be renegotiated and extended by the Jazz this offseason unless he's traded, but if he is traded to a cap space team, they can renegotiate and extend him in January or so, but will face the penalty of missing luxury tax payments next year (because they would need to enter the season under the salary floor). Luxury tax payments should be around $25m to $35m in cost solely to the owner so if say the Pistons' owner is really desperate to win, he could eat that $30m and trade for Markkanen in the offseason.

Now, the team could keep the luxury tax payments while extending Markkanen if he took less than the max. The 30% max starts at 46.53m while the max a team that hit the salary floor could offer is 44.86m [(Markkanen's salary+10% of the salary cap this year)*1.4]. The gap between these two figures does increase year by year though as teams can only offer 8% raises. This means Lauri would lose around $7.5m over a four year full max, but the $14m he would get would still make him financially better off than waiting for FA (though he would still lose $7.5m compared to signing a max with the Jazz)

[MoneyTalks41890]

The timing on the re-negotiate/extend and trade is interesting. Lauri won't have as much value at the draft as an expiring who cannot be extended except through raise and extend with a cap team, and there's a long waiting period after a trade before that could happen.

So the best value play for the Jazz is to resign him on a raise and extend, but then he can't be traded for a while. And if the Jazz are trying to tank 25 that's not compatible with showcasing a newly maxed Lauri.

[jayjaysee]

Whether you want to be a low level playoff team with the chance of adding a star in trade later (say trading for Murray this summer or signing Demar) or you trade Lauri and Sexton for only future picks and start a tank around Kessler/Hendricks/Matas/George and hope to get “Bailey” and “Boozer” or…

Either option is understandable and good for the team. Drafting 7th-10th again next season with Lauri is the only bad option IMO. That’s Demarcus Cousins Sac stuff..

[HadAnEffectHere]

The timing on the re-negotiate/extend and trade is interesting. Lauri won't have as much value at the draft as an expiring who cannot be extended except through raise and extend with a cap team, and there's a long waiting period after a trade before that could happen.

So the best value play for the Jazz is to resign him on a raise and extend, but then he can't be traded for a while. And if the Jazz are trying to tank 25 that's not compatible with showcasing a newly maxed Lauri.

Yeah, the optimal move for the Jazz is to trade him to the Pistons with the Pistons deciding that they can only get and keep a guy like Lauri if they trade for him now and keep the cap space open to R+E him.

If the Pistons aren't offering that much, it becomes much harder for the Jazz to make an offseason deal to let them tank.

[jayjaysee]

The timing on the re-negotiate/extend and trade is interesting. Lauri won't have as much value at the draft as an expiring who cannot be extended except through raise and extend with a cap team, and there's a long waiting period after a trade before that could happen.

So the best value play for the Jazz is to resign him on a raise and extend, but then he can't be traded for a while. And if the Jazz are trying to tank 25 that's not compatible with showcasing a newly maxed Lauri.

Yeah, the optimal move for the Jazz is to trade him to the Pistons with the Pistons deciding that they can only get and keep a guy like Lauri if they trade for him now and keep the cap space open to R+E him.

If the Pistons aren't offering that much, it becomes much harder for the Jazz to make an offseason deal to let them tank.

OKC offering Giddey+Houston lottery pick as the bones of a deal (add what you think or tie in a third team) is my personal favorite for Lauri.

12-13 million cap space is easy for OKC to sit on and then they can give Lauri the same deal Sabonis is on in December.

Presti gets two full years under the tax of Chet/Lauri/Jalen/SGA/Cason. It’s overkill. But so what.

[HadAnEffectHere]

The timing on the re-negotiate/extend and trade is interesting. Lauri won't have as much value at the draft as an expiring who cannot be extended except through raise and extend with a cap team, and there's a long waiting period after a trade before that could happen.

So the best value play for the Jazz is to resign him on a raise and extend, but then he can't be traded for a while. And if the Jazz are trying to tank 25 that's not compatible with showcasing a newly maxed Lauri.

Yeah, the optimal move for the Jazz is to trade him to the Pistons with the Pistons deciding that they can only get and keep a guy like Lauri if they trade for him now and keep the cap space open to R+E him.

If the Pistons aren't offering that much, it becomes much harder for the Jazz to make an offseason deal to let them tank.

OKC offering Giddey+Houston lottery pick as the bones of a deal (add what you think or tie in a third team) is my personal favorite for Lauri.

12-13 million cap space is easy for OKC to sit on and then they can give Lauri the same deal Sabonis is on in December.

Presti gets two full years under the tax of Chet/Lauri/Jalen/SGA/Cason. It’s overkill. But so what.

My big issue with this deal is that Giddey absolutely sucks and only an incredibly stupid team would ever bet on him.

Non-shooting guards without athleticism <<<<<<<<<<<<<<<

Giddey will probably barely play over Joe and Wiggins and Wallace this postseason.

Giddey has a 91 TS+ on the easiest shots in the NBA. Literally every other player on the court with him is either a superstar or a sniper. He's probably the worst scorer in the NBA who gets minutes.

Giddey also is very depressing and a "should I even follow basketball?" player because the Jazz are known league wide for their whiteness and for Karl Malone raping a minor and adding a bad white player who was dating a 17 year old (obviously a lot less bad than rape but pretty creepy) is pretty bleak.

[jayjaysee]

My big issue with this deal is that Giddey absolutely sucks and only an incredibly stupid team would ever bet on him.

Non-shooting guards without athleticism <<<<<<<<<<<<<<<

Same deal can be made with Dieng and picks. Or just picks.

OKC has like 35 million in cap space so Giddey isn’t needed and if he’s terrible and will be able to be signed for MLE type, OKC will keep him.

The rest of it- I would not factor.

[Colbinii]

Keyonte George looks like the real deal. Since the start pf February [18 Games], he is posting 17/5 on 42% 3P on > 6 3PA/G to 2.8 Turnovers.

I see no reason they can't be competitive next year as their young core continues to grow and develop.

Here is the core they should be keeping:
Lauri
George
Kendricks
Sexton
Kessler
Sensabaugh

Players they should try to move (if possible):
Collins
Clarkson

They have one more draft to nail it out of the park in 2024 and then they will have tons of picks to use to add talent or draft talent over the next 5 years.

[BlazersBroncos]

Yeah, the optimal move for the Jazz is to trade him to the Pistons with the Pistons deciding that they can only get and keep a guy like Lauri if they trade for him now and keep the cap space open to R+E him.

If the Pistons aren't offering that much, it becomes much harder for the Jazz to make an offseason deal to let them tank.

OKC offering Giddey+Houston lottery pick as the bones of a deal (add what you think or tie in a third team) is my personal favorite for Lauri.

12-13 million cap space is easy for OKC to sit on and then they can give Lauri the same deal Sabonis is on in December.

Presti gets two full years under the tax of Chet/Lauri/Jalen/SGA/Cason. It’s overkill. But so what.

My big issue with this deal is that Giddey absolutely sucks and only an incredibly stupid team would ever bet on him.

Non-shooting guards without athleticism <<<<<<<<<<<<<<<

Giddey will probably barely play over Joe and Wiggins and Wallace this postseason.

Giddey has a 91 TS+ on the easiest shots in the NBA. Literally every other player on the court with him is either a superstar or a sniper. He's probably the worst scorer in the NBA who gets minutes.

Giddey also is very depressing and a "should I even follow basketball?" player because the Jazz are known league wide for their whiteness and for Karl Malone raping a minor and adding a bad white player who was dating a 17 year old (obviously a lot less bad than rape but pretty creepy) is pretty bleak.

Giddey doesnt suck - he has some pretty unique traits. That being said, his development this year (Or lack there of) definatley has regressed his value. I dont see him and the HOU LP being enough for Lauri. Maybe Josh had that value last year when his development arch seemed a bit higher. At this point it should cost Giddey, Dieng, HOU 24 FRP and 2-3 additional FRP for Lauri.

And I still think OKC should pretty easily do that trade.

If OKC lucks out and gets the UTA FRP - I think this would be enough value -

Josh Giddey
Osumane Dieng
#10 (UTA FRP)
#11 (HOU FRP)
Least Favorable 2025 FRP
3 Future SRP

for

Lauri Markkanen
#29 (OKC FRP)

Then flip #29 to PDX for Duop Reath - a 3/D C that fits the scheme.

I mean - I think only BOS has an argument over this roster -

G - Shai Gilgeous-Alexander / Cason Wallace / VET FA
G - Lou Dort / Isaiah Joe / Aaron Wiggins / Lindy Waters
F - Jalen Williams / Kenrich Williams / Aaron Wiggins
F - Lauri Markkanen / Gordon Hayward / Kenrich Williams
C - Chet Holmgren / Duop Reath / Jaylin Williams

[jayjaysee]

Giddey doesnt suck - he has some pretty unique traits. That being said, his development this year (Or lack there of) definatley has regressed his value. I dont see him and the HOU LP being enough for Lauri. Maybe Josh had that value last year when his development arch seemed a bit higher. At this point it should cost Giddey, Dieng, HOU 24 FRP and 2-3 additional FRP for Lauri.

And I still think OKC should pretty easily do that trade.

If OKC lucks out and gets the UTA FRP - I think this would be enough value -

Josh Giddey
Osumane Dieng
#10 (UTA FRP)
#11 (HOU FRP)
Least Favorable 2025 FRP
3 Future SRP

for

Lauri Markkanen
#29 (OKC FRP)

Yeah, I think OKC needs to add more than just Giddey/Houston first, just not sure how much more.

Don’t think OKC gets away with “least valuable” stipulation. Especially if it’s the 2025 first where Utah will already have two very probable late firsts.. at least 2027 would provide a bit more variance.

But I do like Presti trading out of the 2024 draft completely and moving on from Dieng/Giddey as a way to delay the rookie contract clock..

[mg]

Assuming Jazz can't acquire a star this offseason looks like a pretty good bet. Ainge knows they need a Doncic (or fill in a superstar) to legitimately contend.

If they get a good deal for Lauri they should probably take it especially with Flagg, Ace, Boozer, Dybantsa type potential superstar prospects available in the '25 and '26 drafts. Those Cle/Minn picks are not going to be in the lottery so the Jazz will need to "tank" a bit to draft that high. OKC had Shai sitting on ice for several seasons but he was in his very early 20's. Jazz really can't ask Lauri to do the same thing in his prime/late 20's. Jazz also have a nice prospect in Taylor Hendricks who can play the same position as Lauri.

[ChettheJet]

I may be alone in thinking that I don't see a reason to trade Markkanen. He's not too old, he's not too expensive, yet, nobody likes tanking but he must see that a few right now moves puts the Jazz a number of steps higher, leaving the rebuild behind.

Keyonte George looks like the real deal. Since the start pf February [18 Games], he is posting 17/5 on 42% 3P on > 6 3PA/G to 2.8 Turnovers.

I see no reason they can't be competitive next year as their young core continues to grow and develop.

Here is the core they should be keeping:
Lauri
George
Kendricks
Sexton
Kessler
Sensabaugh

Players they should try to move (if possible):
Collins
Clarkson

They have one more draft to nail it out of the park in 2024 and then they will have tons of picks to use to add talent or draft talent over the next 5 years.

I agree that's the core to keep, only needs some help, Sexton and Markkanen can at least remain as good as they are all the others have a future on the upside. Collins has never been a 5 and makes too much for too long to do what he does as a backup to Lauri, Clarkson is expendable as their young guys improve. Plus the Jazz still have plenty of picks

Whether you want to be a low level playoff team with the chance of adding a star in trade later (say trading for Murray this summer or signing Demar) or you trade Lauri and Sexton for only future picks and start a tank around Kessler/Hendricks/Matas/George and hope to get “Bailey” and “Boozer” or…

Either option is understandable and good for the team. Drafting 7th-10th again next season with Lauri is the only bad option IMO. That’s Demarcus Cousins Sac stuff..

Here's where I see signing DeRozan, and sending Collins back to the Bulls shifts the Jazz into a higher level. Markkanen and DeRozan on either side of Kessler, with Murray and Sexton on the backline, only needs a few bench veterans to rise in the west. DeRozan besides being a mid range scorer is also a clutch veteran to show guys like Markkanen and Sexton who haven't been playoff bound as well as the kids what pressure is like and how to deal with it. And even at his age he's playing big time minutes for the Bulls, not slowing down.

[babyjax13]

This is from an interview 4 days ago. IDK, I read this as being on-board.

"I understand the longer formula, and we have had a lot of young guys. As a competitor, I want to win now, so it was momentarily frustrating, Markkanen admits."

https://thejnotes.com/posts/lauri-markkanen-is-unhappy-with-the-recent-moves-made-by-the-utah-jazz-01hs28k4pm7c

The article obviously doesn't interpret it that way, but my sense is that both he and the Jazz know a R+E is in both of their best interests. If we are going to trade him, it will be after that.

Also I think the offers here, so far, are not appealing at all.

[Wolveswin]

OKC offering Giddey+Houston lottery pick as the bones of a deal (add what you think or tie in a third team) is my personal favorite for Lauri.

12-13 million cap space is easy for OKC to sit on and then they can give Lauri the same deal Sabonis is on in December.

Presti gets two full years under the tax of Chet/Lauri/Jalen/SGA/Cason. It’s overkill. But so what.

My big issue with this deal is that Giddey absolutely sucks and only an incredibly stupid team would ever bet on him.

Non-shooting guards without athleticism <<<<<<<<<<<<<<<

Giddey will probably barely play over Joe and Wiggins and Wallace this postseason.

Giddey has a 91 TS+ on the easiest shots in the NBA. Literally every other player on the court with him is either a superstar or a sniper. He's probably the worst scorer in the NBA who gets minutes.

Giddey also is very depressing and a "should I even follow basketball?" player because the Jazz are known league wide for their whiteness and for Karl Malone raping a minor and adding a bad white player who was dating a 17 year old (obviously a lot less bad than rape but pretty creepy) is pretty bleak.

Giddey doesnt suck - he has some pretty unique traits. That being said, his development this year (Or lack there of) definatley has regressed his value. I dont see him and the HOU LP being enough for Lauri. Maybe Josh had that value last year when his development arch seemed a bit higher. At this point it should cost Giddey, Dieng, HOU 24 FRP and 2-3 additional FRP for Lauri.

And I still think OKC should pretty easily do that trade.

If OKC lucks out and gets the UTA FRP - I think this would be enough value -

Josh Giddey
Osumane Dieng
#10 (UTA FRP)
#11 (HOU FRP)
Least Favorable 2025 FRP
3 Future SRP

for

Lauri Markkanen
#29 (OKC FRP)

Then flip #29 to PDX for Duop Reath - a 3/D C that fits the scheme.

I mean - I think only BOS has an argument over this roster -

G - Shai Gilgeous-Alexander / Cason Wallace / VET FA
G - Lou Dort / Isaiah Joe / Aaron Wiggins / Lindy Waters
F - Jalen Williams / Kenrich Williams / Aaron Wiggins
F - Lauri Markkanen / Gordon Hayward / Kenrich Williams
C - Chet Holmgren / Duop Reath / Jaylin Williams

Man as a Wolves fan, I sure hope Presti and Ainge can’t figure it out. Markkanen with Chet in that lineup is sick.

As for the deal, I think Giddey to 3rd team, and possibly other assets, so Ainge can get a brighter/shiner main object. Not a collection.

[jayjaysee]

Here's where I see signing DeRozan, and sending Collins back to the Bulls shifts the Jazz into a higher level. Markkanen and DeRozan on either side of Kessler, with Murray and Sexton on the backline, only needs a few bench veterans to rise in the west. DeRozan besides being a mid range scorer is also a clutch veteran to show guys like Markkanen and Sexton who haven't been playoff bound as well as the kids what pressure is like and how to deal with it. And even at his age he's playing big time minutes for the Bulls, not slowing down.

If Chicago is willing to take Collins cheaply, it’s better for Utah to have more money to pay Lauri/Demar… But Utah can give Demar a 3yr120 and dump Clarkson to get the rest Lauri’s renegotiation space back and just fill the bench in August..

But if you stretch this hypothetical deal out til August like the Mitchell trade..Ainge could fill a roster, leave 25 million in cap space. Renegotiate Lauri all the way to his max to get him to give up some on back years?

Then use room exem.. and then do like Collins, Yurt, other vet min(s), 2025 first for Demar sign and trade..

[babyjax13]

Here's where I see signing DeRozan, and sending Collins back to the Bulls shifts the Jazz into a higher level. Markkanen and DeRozan on either side of Kessler, with Murray and Sexton on the backline, only needs a few bench veterans to rise in the west. DeRozan besides being a mid range scorer is also a clutch veteran to show guys like Markkanen and Sexton who haven't been playoff bound as well as the kids what pressure is like and how to deal with it. And even at his age he's playing big time minutes for the Bulls, not slowing down.

If Chicago is willing to take Collins cheaply, it’s better for Utah to have more money to pay Lauri/Demar… But Utah can give Demar a 3yr120 and dump Clarkson to get the rest Lauri’s renegotiation space back and just fill the bench in August..

But if you stretch this hypothetical deal out til August like the Mitchell trade..Ainge could fill a roster, leave 25 million in cap space. Renegotiate Lauri all the way to his max to get him to give up some on back years?

Then use room exem.. and then do like Collins, Yurt, other vet min(s), 2025 first for Demar sign and trade..

I think DeRozan just locks us into a really mediocre core. He's a good player, but the wrong target for us. I am not opposed to trading Collins. Detroit, Chicago, and Miami all make some sense and the price would be low (e.g., we may have to attach some seconds, or swap a late first for a 2nd to make it happen).

[Kizz Fastfists]

The fact that Presti and Ainge didn't manage to work something out this year speaks to both of them failing to understand where their teams actually are. Lauri makes OKC the strong favorite in the West. OKC has a ton of assets to send out. Giddey, #11 (Houston), Miami's 2025 FRP, lottery protected in 2025 and unprotected in 2026, best OKC pick in 2025 and best OKC pick in 2026 should have been done before the deadline. Instead OKC added Hayward, which does nothing for them, and Utah tanked the season moving Olynyk without helping their ability to trade for a legitimate star or fully commit to the rebuild. Their best case scenario is add a pretend star player to go with Lauri and be an easy first round exit, as a ceiling, for a few years before having to rebuild.

It is typical of Presti to have a team that is good enough to get the fans excited and then refuse to finish the roster. Ainge thinking he can build a contender around Lauri in Utah is puzzling. He has to know he needs a superstar and Lauri does a more to prevent that from happening than help it. The fact that Lauri isn't already in OKC is puzzling and could be considered a failure on both organizations. Lauri continues to lose value and OKC continues to waste a team with a top 5 player, SGA, instead of making moves to win a championship with him.

[jayjaysee]

Here's where I see signing DeRozan, and sending Collins back to the Bulls shifts the Jazz into a higher level. Markkanen and DeRozan on either side of Kessler, with Murray and Sexton on the backline, only needs a few bench veterans to rise in the west. DeRozan besides being a mid range scorer is also a clutch veteran to show guys like Markkanen and Sexton who haven't been playoff bound as well as the kids what pressure is like and how to deal with it. And even at his age he's playing big time minutes for the Bulls, not slowing down.

If Chicago is willing to take Collins cheaply, it’s better for Utah to have more money to pay Lauri/Demar… But Utah can give Demar a 3yr120 and dump Clarkson to get the rest Lauri’s renegotiation space back and just fill the bench in August..

But if you stretch this hypothetical deal out til August like the Mitchell trade..Ainge could fill a roster, leave 25 million in cap space. Renegotiate Lauri all the way to his max to get him to give up some on back years?

Then use room exem.. and then do like Collins, Yurt, other vet min(s), 2025 first for Demar sign and trade..

I think DeRozan just locks us into a really mediocre core. He's a good player, but the wrong target for us. I am not opposed to trading Collins. Detroit, Chicago, and Miami all make some sense and the price would be low (e.g., we may have to attach some seconds, or swap a late first for a 2nd to make it happen).

If it costs a late first to turn Collins into Demar, that’s a good will move for Lauri and doesn’t lock Utah into anything really?

Utah can still trade for a true star - or trade Demar after they trade Lauri

[Pipp33]

OKC offering Giddey+Houston lottery pick as the bones of a deal (add what you think or tie in a third team) is my personal favorite for Lauri.

12-13 million cap space is easy for OKC to sit on and then they can give Lauri the same deal Sabonis is on in December.

Presti gets two full years under the tax of Chet/Lauri/Jalen/SGA/Cason. It’s overkill. But so what.

My big issue with this deal is that Giddey absolutely sucks and only an incredibly stupid team would ever bet on him.

Non-shooting guards without athleticism <<<<<<<<<<<<<<<

Giddey will probably barely play over Joe and Wiggins and Wallace this postseason.

Giddey has a 91 TS+ on the easiest shots in the NBA. Literally every other player on the court with him is either a superstar or a sniper. He's probably the worst scorer in the NBA who gets minutes.

Giddey also is very depressing and a "should I even follow basketball?" player because the Jazz are known league wide for their whiteness and for Karl Malone raping a minor and adding a bad white player who was dating a 17 year old (obviously a lot less bad than rape but pretty creepy) is pretty bleak.

Giddey doesnt suck - he has some pretty unique traits. That being said, his development this year (Or lack there of) definatley has regressed his value. I dont see him and the HOU LP being enough for Lauri. Maybe Josh had that value last year when his development arch seemed a bit higher. At this point it should cost Giddey, Dieng, HOU 24 FRP and 2-3 additional FRP for Lauri.

And I still think OKC should pretty easily do that trade.

If OKC lucks out and gets the UTA FRP - I think this would be enough value -

Josh Giddey
Osumane Dieng
#10 (UTA FRP)
#11 (HOU FRP)
Least Favorable 2025 FRP
3 Future SRP

for

Lauri Markkanen
#29 (OKC FRP)

Then flip #29 to PDX for Duop Reath - a 3/D C that fits the scheme.

I mean - I think only BOS has an argument over this roster -

G - Shai Gilgeous-Alexander / Cason Wallace / VET FA
G - Lou Dort / Isaiah Joe / Aaron Wiggins / Lindy Waters
F - Jalen Williams / Kenrich Williams / Aaron Wiggins
F - Lauri Markkanen / Gordon Hayward / Kenrich Williams
C - Chet Holmgren / Duop Reath / Jaylin Williams

I agree completely that Giddey doesn't suck...he's been forced into a role that does not suit his game.

Shai and Jalen Williams are the 1st and 2nd options on the ball this season, which has made Giddey play off the ball for large chunks of game time, which detracts from all of his best skills and highlights his weaknesses.

He most certainly can be a good player in the right circumstances, but that needs to be on the ball , playing as the orchestrator of the offence.

IMO, he needs to go to a poor team looking for a pass first PG, to see what he can really become...Spurs, Wizards are first to mind.

His FT% has improved year on year and he is a player that wants to get better, so will continue to work on his shooting, which isn't as horrific as it's made out to be. Yes, it's not good, but there's plenty of young players still developing their shooting (Cade Cunningham's shooting is not too dissimilar, Jalen Green etc).

[babyjax13]

If Chicago is willing to take Collins cheaply, it’s better for Utah to have more money to pay Lauri/Demar… But Utah can give Demar a 3yr120 and dump Clarkson to get the rest Lauri’s renegotiation space back and just fill the bench in August..

But if you stretch this hypothetical deal out til August like the Mitchell trade..Ainge could fill a roster, leave 25 million in cap space. Renegotiate Lauri all the way to his max to get him to give up some on back years?

Then use room exem.. and then do like Collins, Yurt, other vet min(s), 2025 first for Demar sign and trade..

I think DeRozan just locks us into a really mediocre core. He's a good player, but the wrong target for us. I am not opposed to trading Collins. Detroit, Chicago, and Miami all make some sense and the price would be low (e.g., we may have to attach some seconds, or swap a late first for a 2nd to make it happen).

If it costs a late first to turn Collins into Demar, that’s a good will move for Lauri and doesn’t lock Utah into anything really?

Utah can still trade for a true star - or trade Demar after they trade Lauri

I think it locks us into a play-in spot and it is hard to get out of that position (see Atlanta). He's also aging and that is a big contract for what he offers. If he came for like 2/$50 million I could see some merits to it (again, I think too much) because he'd be flipable to a contender.