What I think a realistic Jazz offseason looks like

[zimpy27]

Early offseason (pre-draft & draft)

I think Utah looks to trade both Clarkson and Collins, hopefully by draft-day. One of them really needs to be a salary dump so that we can R+E Lauri. Inspired by trades on this board (please take credit if they were your ideas):

Pre-draft trades:

UTA trades: Jordan Clarkson
LAL trades: Gabe Vincent, 2025 LAC 2nd, 2027 LAL 1st changed from 1-4 protected to top 2 protected
The Lakers get a guy who has been healthy and who can add some instant offense off their bench. Utah gets a bit more upside on the pick they already own + a 2nd.

Draft (just used ESPN's 'best remaining players' page):
Focus on drafting wings and big guards who can rebound. These are just some fill-ins.
9. Stephon Castle ($5.76 [120%] million rookie scale)
29. Dillon Jones ($2.5 [120%] million rookie scale)
31. Pacome Dadiet ($1.16 million rookie minimum)

Post-draft:

UTA trades: John Collins, 2025 1st (lowest of UTA/CLE/MIN conveyed)
DET trades: 2028 NYK 2nd, 2029 MIL 2nd, 2030 MIN 2nd
Detroit gets a professional who can help stretch the court, who can rim-run, and who adds some secondary rim protection. They also get a first. Of course, they have to eat Collins' contract. Utah clears two years of Collins and opens up cap space to renegotiate and extend Collins. To do so, we almost have to dump either Collins or Clarkson. If it is Clarkson, we won't have cap space to do any more than R+E Lauri and sign the rookies, so I think Collins is a better move for us.

ORL trades: Joe Ingles
UTA trades: fake 2nd
Utah brings Joe home, Orlando drops some salary to make a run at someone who can complete their core.

Free Agency:
Renegotiate and Extend Lauri Markkenen to a contract totaling $44 million per year over 5 years

Logic: Lauri would be eligible in 2024/25 for a deal starting at $44,070,804 per year with 8% raises for up to 5 years. The value of this contract would be $258,545,821. However, if you look at what the next 5 years would be (including this season) he would earn $216,632,523. Utah can renegotiate and extend Lauri in a way that earns him more money over the next 5 years while also reducing the yearly commitment after next year. e.g., they could increase his salary to $44 million per year over 5 years ($220 million) where his final year of $44 million would be $10 million less than a standard max contract signed the year after. So, I'm going to assume that this is the deal we sign.


Depth chart:
Keyonte George 30/Collin Sexton 18/Vincent
Stephon Castle 24/Brice Sensabaugh 14/Collin Sexton 10
Lauri Markkenen 18/Joe Ingles 20/Dillon Jones 10
Taylor Hendricks 28/Lauri Markkenen 20
Walker Kessler 28/Omer Yurtseven 20

Gleague: Pacome Dadiet

Utah takes a clear step back in competitiveness while retaining Lauri on a reasonable contract, one that leaves open optionality for trades. They also open up minutes to feature their young players and get an idea of who should stick vs. not.

So a 3rd season missing the playoffs. Would you expect 2025 offseason be the move to be a playoff team?

[RookieJazz]

Early offseason (pre-draft & draft)

I think Utah looks to trade both Clarkson and Collins, hopefully by draft-day. One of them really needs to be a salary dump so that we can R+E Lauri. Inspired by trades on this board (please take credit if they were your ideas):

Pre-draft trades:

UTA trades: Jordan Clarkson
LAL trades: Gabe Vincent, 2025 LAC 2nd, 2027 LAL 1st changed from 1-4 protected to top 2 protected
The Lakers get a guy who has been healthy and who can add some instant offense off their bench. Utah gets a bit more upside on the pick they already own + a 2nd.

Draft (just used ESPN's 'best remaining players' page):
Focus on drafting wings and big guards who can rebound. These are just some fill-ins.
9. Stephon Castle ($5.76 [120%] million rookie scale)
29. Dillon Jones ($2.5 [120%] million rookie scale)
31. Pacome Dadiet ($1.16 million rookie minimum)

Post-draft:

UTA trades: John Collins, 2025 1st (lowest of UTA/CLE/MIN conveyed)
DET trades: 2028 NYK 2nd, 2029 MIL 2nd, 2030 MIN 2nd
Detroit gets a professional who can help stretch the court, who can rim-run, and who adds some secondary rim protection. They also get a first. Of course, they have to eat Collins' contract. Utah clears two years of Collins and opens up cap space to renegotiate and extend Collins. To do so, we almost have to dump either Collins or Clarkson. If it is Clarkson, we won't have cap space to do any more than R+E Lauri and sign the rookies, so I think Collins is a better move for us.

ORL trades: Joe Ingles
UTA trades: fake 2nd
Utah brings Joe home, Orlando drops some salary to make a run at someone who can complete their core.

Free Agency:
Renegotiate and Extend Lauri Markkenen to a contract totaling $44 million per year over 5 years

Logic: Lauri would be eligible in 2024/25 for a deal starting at $44,070,804 per year with 8% raises for up to 5 years. The value of this contract would be $258,545,821. However, if you look at what the next 5 years would be (including this season) he would earn $216,632,523. Utah can renegotiate and extend Lauri in a way that earns him more money over the next 5 years while also reducing the yearly commitment after next year. e.g., they could increase his salary to $44 million per year over 5 years ($220 million) where his final year of $44 million would be $10 million less than a standard max contract signed the year after. So, I'm going to assume that this is the deal we sign.


Depth chart:
Keyonte George 30/Collin Sexton 18/Vincent
Stephon Castle 24/Brice Sensabaugh 14/Collin Sexton 10
Lauri Markkenen 18/Joe Ingles 20/Dillon Jones 10
Taylor Hendricks 28/Lauri Markkenen 20
Walker Kessler 28/Omer Yurtseven 20

Gleague: Pacome Dadiet

Utah takes a clear step back in competitiveness while retaining Lauri on a reasonable contract, one that leaves open optionality for trades. They also open up minutes to feature their young players and get an idea of who should stick vs. not.

So, this plan means Jazz is trading Lauri, after maximizing his value. I think it is doable, but I think Lauri will be traded for the best bidder and Jazz reach a full rebuild. I don't agree with that, though.

I think Jazz should look to add at least one of Murray, Bridges, Ingram, or maybe Young... using their picks and building around Lauri + someone.

[RookieJazz]

BTW the situation is clear in Utah: Either they bring an above-average player to pair with Lauri or trade him.

[babyjax13]

BTW the situation is clear in Utah: Either they bring an above-average player to pair with Lauri or trade him.

Well, the situation for both is to renegotiate and extend to maximize his earnings and lock him in, then decide what to do. Since he'd be required to be here half a season anyway after that, I don't see why he wouldn't wait for the 2025 offseason for us to do that. But it does get tiring watching a bad team, so I get where you are coming from and I'm not sure I disagree.

[MoneyTalks41890]

BTW the situation is clear in Utah: Either they bring an above-average player to pair with Lauri or trade him.

Well, the situation for both is to renegotiate and extend to maximize his earnings and lock him in, then decide what to do. Since he'd be required to be here half a season anyway after that, I don't see why he wouldn't wait for the 2025 offseason for us to do that. But it does get tiring watching a bad team, so I get where you are coming from and I'm not sure I disagree.

Based on jay and others mapping it out, it looks like there's not a way to raise and extend Lauri and be able to trade him before next offseason, which is a different calculus in my view.

[HadAnEffectHere]

BTW the situation is clear in Utah: Either they bring an above-average player to pair with Lauri or trade him.

Well, the situation for both is to renegotiate and extend to maximize his earnings and lock him in, then decide what to do. Since he'd be required to be here half a season anyway after that, I don't see why he wouldn't wait for the 2025 offseason for us to do that. But it does get tiring watching a bad team, so I get where you are coming from and I'm not sure I disagree.

Based on jay and others mapping it out, it looks like there's not a way to raise and extend Lauri and be able to trade him before next offseason, which is a different calculus in my view.

Where is the CBA section saying that R+Es can't happen until three years after signing?

[MoneyTalks41890]

Well, the situation for both is to renegotiate and extend to maximize his earnings and lock him in, then decide what to do. Since he'd be required to be here half a season anyway after that, I don't see why he wouldn't wait for the 2025 offseason for us to do that. But it does get tiring watching a bad team, so I get where you are coming from and I'm not sure I disagree.

Based on jay and others mapping it out, it looks like there's not a way to raise and extend Lauri and be able to trade him before next offseason, which is a different calculus in my view.

Where is the CBA section saying that R+Es can't happen until three years after signing?

https://imgix.cosmicjs.com/25da5eb0-15eb-11ee-b5b3-fbd321202bdf-Final-2023-NBA-Collective-Bargaining-Agreement-6-28-23.pdf

Document page 279, numbered page 255:

(c) Renegotiations. No Player Contract may be renegotiated except
in accordance with the following:
(1) Subject to Sections 7(c)(2) and (3) below, a Player Contract
covering a term of four (4) or more Seasons may be renegotiated no
sooner than the third anniversary of the signing of the Contract.

[babyjax13]

BTW the situation is clear in Utah: Either they bring an above-average player to pair with Lauri or trade him.

Well, the situation for both is to renegotiate and extend to maximize his earnings and lock him in, then decide what to do. Since he'd be required to be here half a season anyway after that, I don't see why he wouldn't wait for the 2025 offseason for us to do that. But it does get tiring watching a bad team, so I get where you are coming from and I'm not sure I disagree.

Based on jay and others mapping it out, it looks like there's not a way to raise and extend Lauri and be able to trade him before next offseason, which is a different calculus in my view.

If the idea is to bottom out for 2025 it would, but it seems we are dedicated to not doing that. I don't think it would or should change Lauri's mind, that's a lot of potential additional career earnings + compound interest on 27 million he gets early.

[HadAnEffectHere]

Based on jay and others mapping it out, it looks like there's not a way to raise and extend Lauri and be able to trade him before next offseason, which is a different calculus in my view.

Where is the CBA section saying that R+Es can't happen until three years after signing?

https://imgix.cosmicjs.com/25da5eb0-15eb-11ee-b5b3-fbd321202bdf-Final-2023-NBA-Collective-Bargaining-Agreement-6-28-23.pdf

Document page 279, numbered page 255:

(c) Renegotiations. No Player Contract may be renegotiated except
in accordance with the following:
(1) Subject to Sections 7(c)(2) and (3) below, a Player Contract
covering a term of four (4) or more Seasons may be renegotiated no
sooner than the third anniversary of the signing of the Contract.

Oh, that's very bad for Utah then. Thank you.

Makes a trade in the offseason to the Pistons, 76ers, Nets, Thunder, or Spurs a good bit more urgent.

One of those five should be willing to give up a good bit I would guess.

[MoneyTalks41890]

Well, the situation for both is to renegotiate and extend to maximize his earnings and lock him in, then decide what to do. Since he'd be required to be here half a season anyway after that, I don't see why he wouldn't wait for the 2025 offseason for us to do that. But it does get tiring watching a bad team, so I get where you are coming from and I'm not sure I disagree.

Based on jay and others mapping it out, it looks like there's not a way to raise and extend Lauri and be able to trade him before next offseason, which is a different calculus in my view.

If the idea is to bottom out for 2025 it would, but it seems we are dedicated to not doing that. I don't think it would or should change Lauri's mind, that's a lot of potential additional career earnings + compound interest on 27 million he gets early.

Yes, to me the plan changes in that Utah isn't going to bottom out in 2025 and is likely to resign Lauri and at least be about the same if not better next year. Doesn't make sense to move Lauri at the draft unless the offer is crazy and doesn't make sense to try to bottom out with what has been a respectable team, even after trading some vets, and I don't see Lauri wanting to do the early Thunder thing where he's going to miss a lot of games.

[Dan Z]

Based on jay and others mapping it out, it looks like there's not a way to raise and extend Lauri and be able to trade him before next offseason, which is a different calculus in my view.

If the idea is to bottom out for 2025 it would, but it seems we are dedicated to not doing that. I don't think it would or should change Lauri's mind, that's a lot of potential additional career earnings + compound interest on 27 million he gets early.

Yes, to me the plan changes in that Utah isn't going to bottom out in 2025 and is likely to resign Lauri and at least be about the same if not better next year. Doesn't make sense to move Lauri at the draft unless the offer is crazy and doesn't make sense to try to bottom out with what has been a respectable team, even after trading some vets, and I don't see Lauri wanting to do the early Thunder thing where he's going to miss a lot of games.

I'm also not sure if he wants to go through another tank year. Three years is a lot in the NBA (during his prime).

Sexton too.

[MoneyTalks41890]

If the idea is to bottom out for 2025 it would, but it seems we are dedicated to not doing that. I don't think it would or should change Lauri's mind, that's a lot of potential additional career earnings + compound interest on 27 million he gets early.

Yes, to me the plan changes in that Utah isn't going to bottom out in 2025 and is likely to resign Lauri and at least be about the same if not better next year. Doesn't make sense to move Lauri at the draft unless the offer is crazy and doesn't make sense to try to bottom out with what has been a respectable team, even after trading some vets, and I don't see Lauri wanting to do the early Thunder thing where he's going to miss a lot of games.

I'm also not sure if he wants to go through another tank year. Three years is a lot in the NBA (during his prime).

Sexton too.

Yeah I think the Jazz if they keep Lauri end up taking a dual approach where they draft some prospects in the lottery to cultivate and also make some more win-now moves with other picks/assets, given what they have asset wise. That’s what makes the most sense to me.

[HadAnEffectHere]

The big issue with trying to win with Sexton and Markkanen is that there's not really a path for them to ever be relevant beyond a first round exit and the Ainge intentionally sabotaged first round exits multiple years in a row.

Like, what's the trade of John Collins+assets that returns the Jazz a guy better than Brandon Ingram? (And Brandon Ingram gets them nowhere close to contention)

Could the Jazz trade John Collins and #28 and #31 for like Jerami Grant... Maybe? Maybe they need to add more? Does that do anything for them?

[babyjax13]

The big issue with trying to win with Sexton and Markkanen is that there's not really a path for them to ever be relevant beyond a first round exit and the Ainge intentionally sabotaged first round exits multiple years in a row.

Like, what's the trade of John Collins+assets that returns the Jazz a guy better than Brandon Ingram? (And Brandon Ingram gets them nowhere close to contention)

Could the Jazz trade John Collins and #28 and #31 for like Jerami Grant... Maybe? Maybe they need to add more? Does that do anything for them?

I actually like that. Grant is a better fit on our roster by far. But the answer is obvious that a team centered on him, Lauri, and Sexton isn't going anywhere. That's what all the other assets are for.

[Dan Z]

The big issue with trying to win with Sexton and Markkanen is that there's not really a path for them to ever be relevant beyond a first round exit and the Ainge intentionally sabotaged first round exits multiple years in a row.

Like, what's the trade of John Collins+assets that returns the Jazz a guy better than Brandon Ingram? (And Brandon Ingram gets them nowhere close to contention)

Could the Jazz trade John Collins and #28 and #31 for like Jerami Grant... Maybe? Maybe they need to add more? Does that do anything for them?

I doubt New Orleans would make that trade, but I'm saying this without knowing what assets you're talking about (picks I assume).

I'm not sure if there is a trade out there that makes sense. Maybe Trae Young if the Hawks decide to move on?