ConSarnit wrote:Scase wrote:islandboy53 wrote:
I hadn't previously looked at player shooting stats on nba.com from this perspective. A review of Ochai's numbers with both Toronto and Utah is interesting.
Last year with the Jazz, he shot 39.5% on 38 left corner 3's, 50% on 58 right corner 3's and 27.7% on 130 from ATB.
This year with the Jazz, he shot 36.1% on 36 left corner 3's, 50% on 30 right corner 3's, and 25% on 76 from ATB.
This year with the Raps, he shot 41.7% on 12 left corner 3's, 21.4% on 14 right corner 3's and 16.7% on 30 from ATB.
So, if we leave out the Toronto sample, which is small and doubtless skewed by his change to a new system and new responsibilities, we can see that Ochai shoots adequately from the left corner, quite well from the right corner, and poorly above the break. Lots of room to improve, but that's to be expected from a 2nd year player.
I bundled his Utah/Raps attempts together, and he's shooting markedly below league average. Also I think you might be mixing up the left/right, either that or I am lol.
His bad corner he is shooting 36% on the year, with league average from there being 39%. I'm not going to say by any stretch that this is definitively who he is as a player for the rest of his career, but 200 shots can't be ignored, and it's a pattern across 2 seasons. I would agree with your defence of "second year player" if he were not about to turn 24 and had 4 years of college under his belt. Those players are expected to be much more NBA ready than he is.
To come to Agbaji's defense (not that I think he is a world beater) but there has to be some consideration as to who Agbaji is playing with. He's not a guy who should be counted on to create his own shot but he's not playing with anyone (maybe Olynyk?) who can get him clean looks. Here are the top 7 assist combinations for Agbaji (players who have assisted Agbaji the most):
keyonte george
olynyk
sexton
tht
dunn
dick
markkanen
Who in that list is creating good shots for other players? Let's look at his playing time with guys who can actually get other players a "good shot"
Conley (2023): Agbaji only played 13% of his minutes with Conley
Barnes: 18% of his minutes
Quickley: 46% of his minutes
The majority of the time he's on the floor Ochai is not playing with a real pg or wing shot creator. Agbaji is far from a perfect but he's not getting put into optimal situations, at least as far as guys getting him easy shots goes. Part of it is Agbaji being very limited as an offensive player but he's not getting a lot of help. As a comparison, OG played 70%+ of his minutes with FVV last year. I'm not saying Agbaji deserves to play with starters but having someone getting him better shots couldn't hurt.
Is Agbaji going to make it? I don't know. But I don't know how much we can take away from his time here given the offensive ecosystem (or lack thereof) he has been in since he arrived.
I think IQ has showed he is very capable of finding open shooters and feeding them, so I don't think it's a matter of who is handling the ball. His issues stem from not being in the right spots, but that could be a system issue, a player issue, or both. I don't think it's fair to put all that on him, but since he's been with the raps 26/56 attempted 3's have been in the corners, that needs to be much higher of a %. I've seen him take some stupid above the break 3's.
Additionally, as much as you want to put a player in the best spot to succeed, Ochai is not the type of player that you change the ballhandlers priority for, he is a low end rotation player, he needs to find himself to be in the right places. IQ, Olynyk, and Scottie are plenty smart enough to find him if he's in a good spot.
islandboy53 wrote:Scase wrote:islandboy53 wrote:
I hadn't previously looked at player shooting stats on nba.com from this perspective. A review of Ochai's numbers with both Toronto and Utah is interesting.
Last year with the Jazz, he shot 39.5% on 38 left corner 3's, 50% on 58 right corner 3's and 27.7% on 130 from ATB.
This year with the Jazz, he shot 36.1% on 36 left corner 3's, 50% on 30 right corner 3's, and 25% on 76 from ATB.
This year with the Raps, he shot 41.7% on 12 left corner 3's, 21.4% on 14 right corner 3's and 16.7% on 30 from ATB.
So, if we leave out the Toronto sample, which is small and doubtless skewed by his change to a new system and new responsibilities, we can see that Ochai shoots adequately from the left corner, quite well from the right corner, and poorly above the break. Lots of room to improve, but that's to be expected from a 2nd year player.
I bundled his Utah/Raps attempts together, and he's shooting markedly below league average. Also I think you might be mixing up the left/right, either that or I am lol.
His bad corner he is shooting 36% on the year, with league average from there being 39%. I'm not going to say by any stretch that this is definitively who he is as a player for the rest of his career, but 200 shots can't be ignored, and it's a pattern across 2 seasons. I would agree with your defence of "second year player" if he were not about to turn 24 and had 4 years of college under his belt. Those players are expected to be much more NBA ready than he is.
This year, including in Toronto, he's shooting 37.5% from the left corner on 48 attempts, and 41% from the right corner on 44 attempts. For his almost 2 years in total, he's shooting 38.4% on 86 shots from the left and 46.1% on 102 shots from the right. Assuming your 39% is an accurate value for league average, he's just below on the left side, above on the right, and above overall from the corners at 42.5%. His above the break numbers (25.4% on 236 shots) drags his overall % down to 33% on 424 shots, or just over 3 a game.
If you're trying to define his future shooting based on his struggles in his short stint in Toronto, I think you're making a major mistake. His pattern across 2 seasons is a better than average corner shooter who struggles above the break. I think he can, and will, be better. As to him not being "NBA ready" enough based on being a 4 year college guy, he's doing just fine on defence and corner 3's, which gives him a solid floor. We'll see how he continues to develop, but it seems highly likely that he'll continue to progress.
I'm not sure where you are getting your numbers from, but they aren't matching what I am getting from
stat muse.
This year he is shooting 40.9% from the right corner, with league average being 39.2%, 1.7% above league average. From the left he is shooting 36.2%, with league average being 39.1%, 2.9% below league average.
For his career, from the right he is shooting 46.6%, with league average over that time being 38.8%, 7.8% above league average.
From the left he is shooting 37.6%, with league average being 38.8%, 0.8% below league average.
I'm not defining his future based on his short tenure here, but rather assuming based on past history, he is really only a good shooter from a single place on the floor, and that if he is to be worth sticking on this roster, that needs to expand to both corners, and seriously cut back on his above the break 3's. He's not played a lot in the NBA at a grand total of 123 games, but this also isn't Gradey getting dumped on his first 20 games in the league.
Naturally there is room for improvement, but the question is whether it is worth it to give him coaches time, practice time, salary, and most importantly NBA floor time, for a 24 year old vs potentially doing the same with a 19/20 year old you can draft this year, who results in longer contract control, and the ability to mould them as more of a blank canvas to what your team needs.
There are only so many minutes in a game, and only so much time coaches can spend with a player, is he the one to spend that on?