dygaction wrote:ozwizard8 wrote:This year West is strong and chaotic for seeding. Mavs would not miss playoffs and play-ins like last year, but we still don't know if we can get out of play-ins and take 5th, 6th seed.
Matchups I like for playoffs:
- Wolves: Luka-Kyrie with Maxi occasionally playing at 5, can take Gobert out. Conley is a small guard to be abused by Luka or Kyrie. Edwards is not a great scorer, not a good shooter. If KAT is healthy, it can take 6-7 games but if he's not 100%, I think Mavs can beat Wolves 4-1.
- Thunder: I am really not amazed by OKC Thunder this season. I watched their game live as well. When things go wrong, they dont seem to have much players to put out a character. They mostly rely on coach's plays and refs whistles to keep them in the game. SGA will probably keep getting calls but I am not sure for the rotation players. Some of them will evade playoffs. Luka can bully ball even against their big men. 4-2.
Matchups I do not like:
- Clippers: This is an obvious one as they have f'in too many great forwards. Kawhi-PG can easily dominate PJ-Green. Harden can definitely match Kyrie's offensive production and even more. We have Luka so we can win against a healthy LA Clippers but it will be taxing on our players. Even against much younger Luka team, we got 4-2, 4-3 losses which were close. Now with Gafford and Lively, I'd put Mavs as the favorite to win 4-3. But I'd rather see banged-up Clippers in semifinals or WCF. Because in other years, they consumed their health/energy against us and they lost in the next rounds due to injuries.
+ Wolves, Kings, Thunder, Pelicans
- Denver, Clippers, Suns, GSW
Spot on analysis. It is really all about match up. TWolves were built to beat Nuggets, but matched not very well with Mavs.
Clippers with a healthy Kawhi would have been the biggest trouble for Mavs. Zubac was the best center to give Mavs troubles in the playoffs; Thunders really don't have a clear and consistent second to stand next to SGA, yet; TWolves Gobert's role is significantly reduced by Mavs, Edwards and Towns have been contained quite well, and their best players have been McDaniels and Reid in the last two games.
Thanks. I agree Wolves was best against Denver. For instance, Lakers were not built to win against Denver. They got too much **** for losing but if Lakers matched up Thunder, I can see them advancing.
R1: Healthy Kawhi Clippers would be an issue. With healthy Luka we would get in 7 games. But with 50% Luka like this first round, it would not be possible. Luckily Kawhi wasn't healthy at all.
R2: Thunder really dont have much. They rely on foul calls all game for both sides. Flopper Dort is crazy. Dort is allowed to commit 20 fouls per game and getting called 4 fouls. Did anyone watch G1 of Pelicans-OKC? Dort was pushing Ingram like a rag doll on his drives and even when Ingram jumped for a shot. Refs swallowed their whistle and OKC got easy one because SGA was treated like princess. It reminds me Trae Young, they dont allow any defender to get 5-ft close to him and same with SGA. Our guys just tried to defend from a distance, but SGA was initiating contact and getting FTs... Kidd made a decision and said let SGA shoot wide-open shots all game but not allow others to go crazy. At the end of the day, OKC team really doesn't have character. When things go bad, they fade away. Chet is a baller, it was hard for him to battle with Gafford+Lively for all game. But others are not there. Presti **** up with not getting Gafford and going for Hayward. 4-2!
R3: Wolves are not that good. Really not.
- NBA changed officiating too much for this playoffs. PHX was 3-0 in the regular season against Wolves. Suddenly, they allowed jail ball. Booker-KD weren't able to dribble much due to fouls. I mean PHX was destined to lose due to not having Gafford inside but it would've been 6-7 game series if REFS weren't on a mission.
- Wolves against Denver was a similar one. Jail ball at its best. Crazy amount of fouling, and Denver threw a game 2 away at home due to referee trio. Murray-defense was basically hugging him and hacking all game. This wasn't allowed for few games but then ramped back up and Denver's coaching team didn't do well in this one.
-Gobert has a 10+ year track record of sucking in playoffs. Gobert-oriented defensive teams are getting abused all the time. Having Luka and Kyrie is great but even a less-experienced Brunson sucked life out of Utah two years ago. This playoffs even Hardy is getting lots of assists or points with his drives.
-KAT cannot pass well out of help defense. Look at his offensive stats. He is not a good defensive player either. For some reason, refs let KAT to hack Jokic and other Denver wing men a lot. The whole agenda of 'KAT only needs to avoid foul problem' was a BS. The only way KAT defends semi-decently is by fouling a lot. Playing a Center at 4 in today's league would get punished anyway.
-Conley is old. He cant defend.
-Ant did well in playoffs but he is not that great offensively like Luka to create. Help defense really bugs him. To be fair having Gobert inside didn't help Mitchell in playoffs either. Kidd and coaching team is doing well against both KAT and Ant.
-Mcdaniels is overrated because he cannot defend Kyrie either. Its also hugging, hacking with him. If fouls getting called he vanishes. And also against Luka he is not strong enough to foul enough to make Luka less efficient. He is better at recovering from screens than Dort. Dort only flops with screens. But at the end of the day experience is lacking and size is lacking against Luka.
I just hope refs not go against us 100%. Otherwise, our team matches up very good against Wolves. We should make the Finals.