The Moose wrote:Deanondraft had an interesting write up on Edey last year - https://deanondraft.com/2023/02/08/2023-draft-mid-season-board/
Pretty much. Dean was kinda right about Jokic, too.
But I don't think Edey's risky, at all.
Despite what people say about traditional big men, you still can't teach height. To be more specific, if a player is that efficient as a freshman center that they go on to do what Edey does, it practically means they'll be fine in the NBA as a starter.
Historically, this threshold I've discovered hasn't failed.
Traditional centers that average 12/8.4 on good FG% (56+%, ideally closer to 60%) Per 28 minutes as freshmen (Shaq's FR mpg was the comp here) do VERY well in the NBA simply because they are that efficient and ahead of their peers. This has been the case for the past 40 years, since the introduction of the three point line.
At minimum, you get Wendell Carter Jr, DeAndre Ayton, or Robert Williams III, who are serviceable centers who can put up quality production.
But the majority of players? Cousins, KAT, Embiid, Hakeem, Robinson, Shaq.
Kessler, Chet, and Duren also accomplished this. Naturally, I used this metric on them in the past and they turned out fine, don't you think? Greg Oden also showcased this btw.
And it is Edey and Clingan who showcase this now.
I don't expect them to be in that top tier but I expect Clingan to be something like Brad Daughterty and Edey to become something like Brook Lopez w/ Gobert rebounding.
I ALSO want to note that Zach Edey's PER is superior to Zion's PER. You might be thinking college PER might not matter that much but once you get to the tip top, the players who have that level of PER and who play in a respectable Div I program that requires them to share the ball with talented players and go up against talented teams.....the Top 5 after Edey become this:
Zion Williamson-Keegan Murray-John Collins-Brandon Clarke-Kelly Olynyk
We'll probably rule out the next Zion (but we won't discount it) but two quality starters and two quality bench bigs are the comparison here. And Edey's college production is closer to Murray and Collins than Clarke and Olynyk.
So, yeah, just don't be surprised if Edey pans out
