bpcox05 wrote:We really shouldn’t be moving any big assets (e.g., 1sts) unless it gives us that 3rd star player, but at the same time, we’re hoping Murray will grow into that type of player (allowing us to use those assets to upgrade the roster around those guys).
I think we can all agree that Murray isn’t that player today, but he’s shown enough growth this year that still gives me hope that he could still become that level of a player. With that in mind, I don’t think it makes sense to make a big, all in type of trade this offseason. I’d like to see how Murray looks in his 3rd season. If he’s taken another step and is playing like that 3rd star we need, great! We can begin to use our assets on the complementary pieces around Fox, Murray, and Sabonis. If it looks like Murray is plateauing in his 3rd season, then I think at that point you’re searching for a big trade to bring in that 3rd star using your picks and Murray (if needed).
But since this thread is about what we should do this offseason, the focus will be on making moves that don’t involve Murray or our 1sts since we have the luxury to wait and see how Murray looks in year 3 and decide on the path forward.
For starters, Keon Ellis is looking like he could be a legit starting SG in this league. He’s an excellent defender, great length, great athleticism, good shooter (apparently he’s the best shooter in practice behind Sasha Vezenkov), solid ball handler, and solid passer. That changes the equation quite a bit considering we also have Monk and Huerter at SG.
With Ellis as our potential long term starting SG, I’d much rather have Monk as our backup considering his ability to handle the rock, playmake for others, and get a bucket when the team needs it. With that in mind, the emphasis should be on resigning Monk.
If Monk chooses to not resign with SAC, I’d immediately look to trade Barnes and Huerter for contracts that expire in the 2025 off-season. That would set us up to potentially make a big signing during the 2025 off-season with $43-45 mil in cap space with the following players under contract: De’Aaron Fox, Domantas Sabonis, Keegan Murray, Keon Ellis, Colby Jones, and a SAC 2024 or 2025 1st. With Keon Ellis and Keegan Murray locking down the SG and SF/PF spots, ideally we target a SF/PF with that cap space. Below are the notable SFs/PFs that could be free agents during the 2025 off-season:
Brandon Ingram (UFA)
Lauri Markkanen (UFA)
Jonathan Isaac (UFA)
Matisse Thybulle (PO)
Jimmy Butler (PO)
Khris Middleton (PO)
Jayson Tatum (PO)
John Collins (PO)
Dorian Finney-Smith (PO)
Aaron Gordon (PO)
Julius Randle (PO)
Bobby Portis (PO)
Naz Reid (PO)
Scottie Barnes (RFA)
Jalen Johnson (RFA)
Trey Murphy (RFA)
Franz Wagner (RFA)
Jonathan Kuminga (RFA)
Evan Mobley (RFA)
We’d obviously take a step back during the 2024-25 off-season since we’d essentially remove Monk, Huerter, and Barnes from the roster, but I think it would be a necessary step back to be able to retool the roster and take 2 steps forward. This approach would set us up with a really solid starting lineup, and we’d still have Murray, 2024/2025 SAC 1st, all of our future 1sts/swaps, etc. to utilize.
If Monk chooses to resign in SAC, the attention turns back to seeing how Murray looks in his 3rd year. His play should determine how we use our assets, but those assets should not be used in the 2024 off-season (it’s not time yet). Instead, I’d look to trade Huerter (since we have Ellis and Monk at SG) for a better fitting piece to help give the team a bit of a boost.
The guard rotation would essentially be set with Fox, Ellis, Monk, Mitchell, and Duarte so the idea would be to move Huerter for some frontcourt help. A couple trades that come to mind would be something like…
BKN Gets: Kevin Huerter & 2025 POR 2nd
SAC Gets: Dorian Finney-Smith
Or
ORL Gets: Kevin Huerter & 2025 POR 2nd
SAC Gets: Jonathan Isaac
Or
POR Gets: Harrison Barnes, Kevin Huerter, & 2025 POR 2nd
SAC Gets: Jerami Grant
Those trades could give us a more complementary starting PF that can help upgrade the defense while still helping space the floor for Sabonis and Fox. You could go into next year with a minute distribution like…
PG - Fox (34) / Monk (14)
SG - Ellis (26) / Monk (16) / Murray (6)
SF - Murray (26) / Barnes (22)
PF - Finney-Smith (26) / Barnes (6) / Lyles (16)
C - Sabonis (34) / Len (10) / Lyles (4)
I think that team would be better next year, but at the same time, we’d have the benefit of still having all of our future 1sts and seeing if Murray can grow into that star player we ultimately need to become a championship contender. Depending on how Murray looks in his 3rd year, the time for a big move could be the 2024-25 trade deadline or the 2025 off-season.
Monte said it himself. Success isn’t linear. We have to be patient with how we build this team and not overreact, become emotional, and push all of our chips in until the moment is right.
And let’s say Monk resigns and we can’t make any trades, I’d look to use part of our exception on Robert Covington. I love his theoretical fit next to Sabonis at PF, and he could be an impactful signing for us. That could give us a minute distribution of…
PG - Fox (34) / Monk (14)
SG - Ellis (26) / Monk (14) / Huerter (8)
SF - Murray (30) / Huerter (18)
PF - Covington (20) / Barnes (26) / Murray (2)
C - Sabonis (34) / Lyles (14)
Fox = 34 min
Sabonis = 34 min
Murray = 32 min
Monk = 28 min
Ellis = 26 min
Huerter = 26 min
Barnes = 26 min
Covington = 20 min
Lyles = 14 min