NBA MVP Discussion Thread 2023-24 (Part 4: MVP Thread's Revenge)

[dygaction]

SGA has 50 games with 30 points but he's scored 30 points just one time in the last 6 games.

Quad is likely slowing him down. I also saw a Bleacher Report writer say that since the league started to allow more contact again to lower the scores, SGA's scoring has suffered.

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/10114127-2024-awards-predictions-our-mvp-lock-a-ballot-takeover-for-okc-thunder

That said, tiny signs of slippage are evident in the wake of the league's officiating changes. Gilgeous-Alexander's offensive game is as varied and adaptable as anyone's, and it's wrong to say he depends on foul-drawing craft to be effective. But that's long been a real skill for him, and the league is reducing its value by allowing more defensive contact than it used to.

As a result, SGA's scoring rates and free-throw attempt rates are trending down. He got to the foul line 15.2 times per 100 possessions in January, but that number slipped to 10.1 in February and sits at 10.5 to this point in March.

The final straw poll should be interesting but if it comes out tomorrow likely many of the votes will have come before voters saw today's games.

Injuries to key teammates can affect narrative. Part of the reason why Jokic won in 2021 was because the team stayed solid despite Murray tearing his ACL and missing the last 18 games of the regular season.

Denver survived and finished with the 5th best record in the league that year.

I'm super interested if Luka has overtaken SGA as the second leading candidate in the poll. I think if it was taken entirely after today's games that he almost certainty would be

Crazy this is after SGA hitting a game winning 3pter vs. another strong & hot NYK team... but this is also after Luka finishing red hot Rockets 11 game winning streak in two quarters.

[NbaAllDay]

[
Doctor MJ has forbidden us to write about Luka. I'm pretty sure that's against the rules. But hey, we didn't report him, did we? But you were extremely quick to react, when multiple posters didn't agree with his actions. Why didn't you interven after his initial comment? Isn't that what mod should do? Or I have it wrong and you have to defend just each other?

And today? You're jumping in because of my comment that mods don't like Luka?

I don't moderate this forum. I do as a board reg jump into discussions frequently as a veteran poster to speak up when I feel so inclined. I already posted days ago I disagree with Doc trying to control the discussion, but didn't feel the need to post that in rebuttal to him since a bunch of posters already had.

But I did feel it okay to speak up for a poster getting dogpiled. So I did.

I disagree with mods on a bunch of topics all the time. Doc MJ probably more than maybe any other. But on the merits or not of our positions. He doesn't need me to defend him, But I defend posters all the time, blue name or not.

You just have some sort of mod complex bro and its really really weird. So weird that yeah I felt the need to comment because I see posts referencing mod status of non-board mods constantly.

But you drop it and I'll gladly drop it. It's pointless.

Nice work, throwing some psychological analysis of a poster, and then behaving like I wanted this discussion. I agree, it was totally pointless.

No mods going to be perfect. Nor the forums they look after, but being a sarcastic (insert any word) isn't going to help. All things considered this place is run fairly well and consistently.

If you aren't happy. Provide some real feedback in DMs or go somewhere else otherwise the old man yelling at clouds act is indeed very weird and obsessive.

[Bob8]

I don't moderate this forum. I do as a board reg jump into discussions frequently as a veteran poster to speak up when I feel so inclined. I already posted days ago I disagree with Doc trying to control the discussion, but didn't feel the need to post that in rebuttal to him since a bunch of posters already had.

But I did feel it okay to speak up for a poster getting dogpiled. So I did.

I disagree with mods on a bunch of topics all the time. Doc MJ probably more than maybe any other. But on the merits or not of our positions. He doesn't need me to defend him, But I defend posters all the time, blue name or not.

You just have some sort of mod complex bro and its really really weird. So weird that yeah I felt the need to comment because I see posts referencing mod status of non-board mods constantly.

But you drop it and I'll gladly drop it. It's pointless.

Nice work, throwing some psychological analysis of a poster, and then behaving like I wanted this discussion. I agree, it was totally pointless.

No mods going to be perfect. Nor the forums they look after, but being a sarcastic (insert any word) isn't going to help. All things considered this place is run fairly well and consistently.

If you aren't happy. Provide some real feedback in DMs or go somewhere else otherwise the old man yelling at clouds act is indeed very weird and obsessive.

Are you mod? Isn't moderating prohibited? I see Texas Chuck has put target on my back.

[NbaAllDay]

Nice work, throwing some psychological analysis of a poster, and then behaving like I wanted this discussion. I agree, it was totally pointless.

No mods going to be perfect. Nor the forums they look after, but being a sarcastic (insert any word) isn't going to help. All things considered this place is run fairly well and consistently.

If you aren't happy. Provide some real feedback in DMs or go somewhere else otherwise the old man yelling at clouds act is indeed very weird and obsessive.

Are you mod? Isn't moderating prohibited? I see Texas Chuck has put target on my back.

World doesn't revolve around you Bob. I'll let you fix your issues elsewhere. Good day.

[GSP]

Can we just appreciate that we have some of the best top end talent ever right now.

Depth is clearly the best ever but it's also insane how well the MVP candidates are playing.

How many years would current Luka not be winning MVP? Hard to think of many.

Top end talent has been as good if not better in plenty of years. There are a bunch of Mvp winners whod still win it over current Luka even many 2nd place winners. We also have to contextualize inflated stats of today w/ spacing, rules, pace compared to past eras.

The depth today might be the deepest its ever been. The top 20, top 30 even top 40 talent is unprecedented but at the top 5 level weve had a bunch of better years in the past

[Mavrelous]

Advanced stats summary:
WS/48 (best predictor stat for MVP):
Jokic .294
SGA .281
Giannis .251
Luka .218
Butler .216

BPM:
Jokic 13.2
Luka 9.8
SGA 9.3
Giannis 9.1
Tyrese 6.7

EPM:
SGA 8.6
Luka 7.5
Giannis 7.1
Jokic 6.9
Kawhi 5.8

PER
Jokic 30.8
Giannis 29.9
SGA 29.7
Luka 28.1
AD 25.6

VORP:
Jokic 9.5
Luka 7.2
SGA 6.9
Giannis 6.8
Sabonis 5.6

LEBRON/WAR
Jokic 6.56/8.6
Giannis 6.16/8.5
SGA 5.7/8
Luka 5.46/7.3
Tyrese 4.34/4.9

Record when playing:
SGA 51-20
Jokic 50-22
Luka 42-23
Giannis 44-25

[dygaction]

Can we just appreciate that we have some of the best top end talent ever right now.

Depth is clearly the best ever but it's also insane how well the MVP candidates are playing.

How many years would current Luka not be winning MVP? Hard to think of many.

Top end talent has been as good if not better in plenty of years. There are a bunch of Mvp winners whod still win it over current Luka even many 2nd place winners. We also have to contextualize inflated stats of today w/ spacing, rules, pace compared to past eras.

The depth today might be the deepest its ever been. The top 20, top 30 even top 40 talent is unprecedented but at the top 5 level weve had a bunch of better years in the past

There are two versions of Luka though.

First half of the season (42 games he played), when Kyrie, Lively II, Maxi, Exum all went through injuries, Luka had to play with center rotation of Powell/Grant Williams. Too many times he was the tallest Mavs on the court. the team was barely float above 500 with 24w-18l; He averaged 34.8/8.6/9.6 on 49/37/78 shooting

Second half of the season, after injuries were not as bad, particularly after the trade, the record is 18w-5l. Luka averaged 32/9.9/10.3 on 48/38/79 shooting.

The same is Luka's consistency; the difference is Mavs could actually put a sensible roster around him featuring regular sized centers and pfs since last trade.

[SA37]

If the Mavs finish 4th I can see Luka being second in mvp this year.

His individual numbers are insane, just like Jokic's. Not sure I could put Luka above Brunson, though. The Knicks' roster is pretty terrible and Randle, Robinson, and Anunoby have missed significant time.

I know I’m not supposed to insult a poster, but, are you **** kidding me? Brunson? This is just really terrible, man, sorry…

I am going to assume you're still hurt Brunson left.

[tribulations]

Luka Jokic Shai is podium imo

Jimmy High Roller has a brilliant video on this as well

[Exp0sed]

Luka's game is so crazy that he's swinging the odds and the game isn't even over.

I think he was at like +750 before the game started.

I actually think Jokic had a better game today

Luka singlehanded finished team that was on 11/0 run in 2 and 1/2 Q in away game. How can someone play better?

Bob, you realize I consider Luka to be at worst - the 3rd best player in the world. I also think his MVP campaign is very real or rather I should say: it SHOULD be a very real race, in actuality it isn't but i'm less interseted in who wins it and more interested in who should win it, so i don't care that the bookies are basicaly calling this race. yes, Jokic will win but i'm not here to argue about that

Luka has been phenomenal, you can check my posts all throughout the season. after a couple of months even had him #1 in my personal MVP ladder (when Mavs had a great record to go along with his play)

moreover, I think that Luka has proved time and time again that he is mentally built for the money time, be it clutch situations or the playolffs and in terms of raw talent and skill - he's in the GOAT conversation, even if his accolades (and more importantly rings) will probably keep him from ending up that high, if i'm talking pure offensive talent, skills - he's unguardable to the extent that only the very best have been

with that said, I watched both games yesterday and while both had incredible games, I felt that Jokic played a better, more impactful game than Luka (by a hair)

no need to get overly excited haha

singlehandedly? you have to realize that if a player takes that many shots and so much more than his teammates (combined!) well..that kind of lends itself to "singlehandedly" winning games, no?

moreover, in that incredible first half, Dallas held the Rockets to 45 pts, did Luka also do that part "singlehandedly"?

Luka put on a show, no doubt, he's on a different plain atm in terms of swag and confidence and with a healthy Kyrie and legit supporting pieces (and size finally) - we're seeing the best version of Luka yet

Jokic was dissecting and toying with the Cavs as much if not more than Luka was with the Rockets and he was doing it with his #2 on the sidelines

so yeah, we know that Luka scores alot more (on many more shots), yesterday for instance he scored 20 more than Jokic (on 12 more shots) but you do realize Jokic had 10 more assists (with less TO's), those are the same 20 pts, just in another style of production. he also had 6 more rebounds, that's far from nothing

box-score aside, i'm a fan of both players and in my subjective opinion watching both games back to back - Jokic was slightly more impressive, to me anyway. it's fine if u or anyone else came out with a different impression as these things are very subjective

Objectively, the Nuggets outscored the Cavs +37 when Jokic was on the floor in a 29 pts win and conversly, the Mavs outscored the Rockets by 12 with Luka on the floor (in an 18 pt win). Luka took 16 3's last night. I know he was hot and good on him but 16 3's is 16 13's, Jokic only took 18 shots total, that's more impressive imo but that's just me

[Crunch 99]

Advanced stats summary:
WS/48 (best predictor stat for MVP):
Jokic .294
SGA .281
Giannis .251
Luka .218
Butler .216

BPM:
Jokic 13.2
Luka 9.8
SGA 9.3
Giannis 9.1
Tyrese 6.7

EPM:
SGA 8.6
Luka 7.5
Giannis 7.1
Jokic 6.9
Kawhi 5.8

PER
Jokic 30.8
Giannis 29.9
SGA 29.7
Luka 28.1
AD 25.6

VORP:
Jokic 9.5
Luka 7.2
SGA 6.9
Giannis 6.8
Sabonis 5.6

LEBRON/WAR
Jokic 6.56/8.6
Giannis 6.16/8.5
SGA 5.7/8
Luka 5.46/7.3
Tyrese 4.34/4.9

Record when playing:
SGA 51-20
Jokic 50-22
Luka 42-23
Giannis 44-25

Someone here told me that NBA.com's PIE (Player Impact Estimate) was a worthless rating, and I never see PIE mentioned along with other comprehensive ratings, so I guess Real GM posters tend to agree, but for this year's MVP race, the PIE ratings are correlating with the MVP betting fairly well. Here are the NBA PIE leaders:
https://www.nba.com/stats/players/advanced?CF=GP*GE*60:MIN*GE*28&DateFrom=10/15/2023&DateTo=04/01/2024&TeamID=0&dir=A&sort=PIE

[Exp0sed]

Advanced stats summary:


Someone here told me that NBA.com's PIE (Player Impact Estimate) was a worthless rating, and I never see it mentioned along with other comprehensive ratings, so I guess Real GM posters tend to agree, but for this year's MVP race, the PIE ratings are matching up with the MVP betting fairly well. Here are the NBA's PIE leaders:

pretty stark differences in pace, Nuggets are almost at the bottom of the league pace wise (27/30 iirc) and the Mavs are 7/30

Jokic has a 3.1 AST\TO ratio? that's sick..and SGA continues to be probably the least turnover prone high scoring star, perhaps ever. really unique player in his own right even tho he slipped some in the efficiency dpt. lately

Jokic's usage is pretty wild too

[BmanInBigD]

His individual numbers are insane, just like Jokic's. Not sure I could put Luka above Brunson, though. The Knicks' roster is pretty terrible and Randle, Robinson, and Anunoby have missed significant time.

I know I’m not supposed to insult a poster, but, are you **** kidding me? Brunson? This is just really terrible, man, sorry…

I am going to assume you're still hurt Brunson left.

Well, I DO wish Cuban had not screwed that up so badly, lol. But, meh, he'd probably gone as far as he could go here with Luka here. Still, he's nowhere near Luka as a player or MVP candidate.

[SA37]

I know I’m not supposed to insult a poster, but, are you **** kidding me? Brunson? This is just really terrible, man, sorry…

I am going to assume you're still hurt Brunson left.

Well, I DO wish Cuban had not screwed that up so badly, lol. But, meh, he'd probably gone as far as he could go here with Luka here. Still, he's nowhere near Luka as a player or MVP candidate.

I disagree on the MVP candidate part, but that is because of the criteria I see used by those who vote and what I think the criteria is. I just can't fathom looking at Brunson's season and the Knicks' roster + injuries and not thinking what has been accomplished there doesn't get Brunson in the MVP discussion. I mean, Brunson is 4th in scoring and 13th in assists and his shooting % are 48-40-84.

I don't think there is ANY question Luka is the better, more dominant player, and no one would ever pass on Doncic to take Brunson. But that is not what the MVP race is about. Now, I don't have an issue if someone thinks Doncic should be in front of Brunson; there is an excellent argument to be made for it. But for my taste and my criteria, I give the edge to Brunson for now.

[Special_Puppy]

Average MVP Odds According to Betting Markets With Vig Removed
Jokic 79%
Luka 15%
SGA 4%
Tatum 1%
Giannis 0.9%

[MoneyTalks41890]

It's not just happening here

Read on Twitter

[Dirk]

I wonder, if any mod except Texas Chuck, has written anything positive about Luka in this thread? First we had someone, who didn't watch games, because +/- was enough, now we have someone, who doesn't believe in Vegas odds and calls everyone Luka's stans.

You really need to stop getting 'personal' about 'mods'. You've gone on some strange ramblings just because the other user happens to have a mod tag.

Doctor J is a mod on the Players Comparison board and Texas Chuck on the Trade Board. And even if a General Board mod was writing opinions in the topic, it'd still be wrong to bring up the user status (mod) as some sort of argument.

Going forward, unless you see a moderator warning or doing anything that is "moderator work", we are all users. Don't bring up "mod". It's annoying. Mods are users primarily and it's good that they participate in topics.

I.e, this post of mine would qualify as a "mod post", just suggesting that a user doesn't obsess over another user status because of being emotionally invested in this discussion.

And, on a non mod post, yes, this +/- thing is quite intriguing... because watching Luka play, it's really difficult to understand how he'd be behind some other players. But then again, we don't watch other players as much as Luka.

Ultimately, what matters for the MVP award is how many underhand shots from nearly the 3 point shot line the candidates make.

MVP sealed.

[Swish77]

I know I’m not supposed to insult a poster, but, are you **** kidding me? Brunson? This is just really terrible, man, sorry…

I am going to assume you're still hurt Brunson left.

Well, I DO wish Cuban had not screwed that up so badly, lol. But, meh, he'd probably gone as far as he could go here with Luka here. Still, he's nowhere near Luka as a player or MVP candidate.

Mavs are a much better team without JB. Right now the eye test Luka's the MVP. What he's doing right now is crazy!

[Bob8]

I wonder, if any mod except Texas Chuck, has written anything positive about Luka in this thread? First we had someone, who didn't watch games, because +/- was enough, now we have someone, who doesn't believe in Vegas odds and calls everyone Luka's stans.

You really need to stop getting 'personal' about 'mods'. You've gone on some strange ramblings just because the other user happens to have a mod tag.

Doctor J is a mod on the Players Comparison board and Texas Chuck on the Trade Board. And even if a General Board mod was writing opinions in the topic, it'd still be wrong to bring up the user status (mod) as some sort of argument.

Going forward, unless you see a moderator warning or doing anything that is "moderator work", we are all users. Don't bring up "mod". It's annoying. Mods are users primarily and it's good that they participate in topics.

I.e, this post of mine would qualify as a "mod post", just suggesting that a user doesn't obsess over another user status because of being emotionally invested in this discussion.

And, on a non mod post, yes, this +/- thing is quite intriguing... because watching Luka play, it's really difficult to understand how he'd be behind some other players. But then again, we don't watch other players as much as Luka.

Ultimately, what matters for the MVP award is how many underhand shots from nearly the 3 point shot line the candidates make.

MVP sealed.

I have just one polite request. Please look how all this debate about mods began. I didn't mention mods even a single time, and I had many long conversations with him, before Doctor MJ out of the blue requested that we don't talk about Luka anymore. And even after that I didn't question Doctor MJ mod status. Others did, I didn't. I feel attacked by the mods now, so please look at when I was talking about mods before yesterday? Never, if I remember right. And please let me know, when I question Doctor MJ mod status. If I remember right, I didn't write even a single comment about his mod status.

Yesterday I wrote a single comment about mod money... and a **** storm by the mods fell on me. A single comment...

Do you believe that my single comment, which was pretty benign, really need to be addressed with this force? Thank for your answer.

[Bob8]

It's not just happening here

Read on Twitter

What should that prove?