Micah Prescott wrote:Luck is something that most fans choose to completely ignore. We like to pretend scouts are flawless and GMs are either geniuses or idiots, while the truth is most are either lucky or unlucky. The Pats are lucky AF not only to have drafted Brady, but that Bledsoe got injured so that they could discover Brady.
Brady himself is lucky just to have several of his rings. The tuck rule gave him one, Pete Carroll calling a pass gave him another.
Dak was the best QB in that entire draft, so not only did we get extremely lucky there but we also got lucky for Romo to get injured so that Dak could even show us what it he was. Had Romo played 3-4 more years Dak probably would be buried deep and hidden on some roster. A complete unknown.
And yeah, even a high draft pick is a huge gamble at the QB position, that is why we have Trey Lance right now. The 9ers scouts thought they nailed that one which is why they traded the farm for him and whiffed completely.
So much of this game is just flat out luck.
Some of it is luck, and some it is just better scouting. If you can identify a guy, then you will have the upper hand in most cases.
Carroll recruited players like Richard Sherman & Earl Thomas, while at USC. So, he was able to identify guys in the draft those first few years in Seattle (2010-13). He had the upper hand over most teams in that regard. It led to winning a Super Bowl.
But as he lost those connections, that changed over time. The team did not draft nearly as well as a consequence.
From 2016-2020, they got very little production from the players they drafted. Metcalf was really the only impact guy they hit on during that period. That's how bad it got, post-Super Bowl.