jfs1000d wrote:NyKnicks1714 wrote:sol537 wrote:
Let’s revisit this thread after the finals =)
I mean it will probably be Denver or Boston winning it all, but your odds are way too high for them.
Let's say Denver has a 90% chance of winning in the 1st round, an 80% chance of winning in the 2nd round, a 75% chance of winning the WCF, and a 70% chance of winning the Finals (all way higher than their actual chances). Even that gives them a 38% chance of winning it all.
For me it's more like Boston: 30%, Denver 25%
That’s way too low for Boston and Denver. More like 95% first round, 90% second round and 80% third round. Finals is 50%
I would say Celtics have a 68% chance to get to finals. Then? It’s a 50-50 game if it’s Denver. They would be favored big against anyone else.
That seems more logical.
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The problem is that 68% is way too high of a percentage to give the Celtics regarding making the finals.
Here is a very realistic scenario:
-Based on the current standings, chances are they play either the 76ers or Heat in the first round;
-Let's say they have a 75% chance of beating either team (very favorable odds).
-Their next likely matchup would be against the Magic or the Knicks. Let's say they have an 80% chance of winning against those teams.
-They play the Bucks in the ECF, and they lets give them a very favorable 70% chance to win.
In this scenario, with even super favorable odds to the Celtics in each round, that would give them a 42% chance of making the finals. Obviously there is a chance they get more favorable matchups, (Bulls or hawks get the 8th seed, Bucks miss the ECF, etc).
Ultimately though, their chances to win the East is probably closer 50%, not 68%.
Considering that,even if we assume your odds for the West are correct (50% Denver, 50% Rest), and your odds are correct for a Denver/Celtics matchup (50%) AND the Celtics are lets say 70% favored against any non-Denver West team in the finals, That would still give the Celtics only a 30% chance of winning the whole thing.
There is a reason the Celtics "only" have a 37% of winning the title according to the official odds right now.
(Someone please correct me if my math is wrong...it's been a long time since I've taken stats
)