Pacers Pick Tracking (Update: #19 officially)

[JB7]

https://www.spurstalk.com/forums/showthread.php?t=302746&page=61

A lot of disgust, anxiety, and fear in that thread. For a franchise as lottery blessed and successful as they have been, they are quite the negative lot.

They aren’t wrong on next year either. Easier to see Raptors bottom 6 than play in.

I don't know about that. Keep in mind, Raps are still in the East, which is looking pretty bad again. And that boards hope that the Spurs will be much improved next year also needs a dose of reality in that they are still playing in the West, which currently sees the 11th place Rockets over .500. In the East, it is the 8th seed Sixers that are the last team over .500.

Look at the bottom of the East next year:
- Detroit: really, how do they improve dramatically, Tobias Harris
- Wiz: will be bottoming out completely, like this year
- Hornets: It is always thought they could jump up, but they always find a way to screw up their season
- Nets: are probably just getting worse
- Hawks: could trade Trae this offseason
- Bulls: could loose DD to FA, if he wants to join a club with a shot at a chip in his last years

I could easily see a Raps team that is healthy, and adds another player this offseason with their cap space, pass all of those teams for the 9th seed at a minimum.

The Raps have managed to bottom out to a 6th worst record due to injuries to Barnes and Yak, and then them just resting other starters. The team can't lose its top 4 players, and expect to do anything. Even OKC has been sliding, because they have sat SGA for a few games, due to injury.

[islandboy53]

https://www.spurstalk.com/forums/showthread.php?t=302746&page=61

A lot of disgust, anxiety, and fear in that thread. For a franchise as lottery blessed and successful as they have been, they are quite the negative lot.

They aren’t wrong on next year either. Easier to see Raptors bottom 6 than play in.

Not really. 38 - 40 wins will get you in the east play in most years. Absent the injuries and other late season issues, this is easily a 30 - 32 win team. And that's with all the roster churn, the dreadful start for Gradey, and the learning curve for a new coach/system. 38 - 40 wins next year is hardly a given, but we'll be better than 30 - 32, which would put us at 8 or 9 this year.

[ArthurVandelay]

https://www.spurstalk.com/forums/showthread.php?t=302746&page=61

A lot of disgust, anxiety, and fear in that thread. For a franchise as lottery blessed and successful as they have been, they are quite the negative lot.

They aren’t wrong on next year either. Easier to see Raptors bottom 6 than play in.

I don't know about that. Keep in mind, Raps are still in the East, which is looking pretty bad again. And that boards hope that the Spurs will be much improved next year also needs a dose of reality in that they are still playing in the West, which currently sees the 11th place Rockets over .500. In the East, it is the 8th seed Sixers that are the last team over .500.

Look at the bottom of the East next year:
- Detroit: really, how do they improve dramatically, Tobias Harris
- Wiz: will be bottoming out completely, like this year
- Hornets: It is always thought they could jump up, but they always find a way to screw up their season
- Nets: are probably just getting worse
- Hawks: could trade Trae this offseason
- Bulls: could loose DD to FA, if he wants to join a club with a shot at a chip in his last years

I could easily see a Raps team that is healthy, and adds another player this offseason with their cap space, pass all of those teams for the 9th seed at a minimum.

The Raps have managed to bottom out to a 6th worst record due to injuries to Barnes and Yak, and then them just resting other starters. The team can't lose its top 4 players, and expect to do anything. Even OKC has been sliding, because they have sat SGA for a few games, due to injury.

None of those teams listed are currently in a place to intentionally tank another season except Washington.

New owners in Charlotte.
Patience for losing by ownership run out in Detroit.
Nets don’t own their pick.
Hawks don’t own their pick (and have played better without Trae, 14-11).
Bulls are a wildcard, but DD will play where he is paid.

I don’t think people appreciate how important depth and talent is. The Raptors, even with Barnes and Poeltl, are not deep. When the big 3 is IQ,RJ,Barnes, while I love all those guys, that isn’t top tier talent outside Scottie.

What happens with Poeltl will be the tell. They are 2-23 without him. Start KO next season, have a bench of rookies and projects to develop, dead cap, and Temple then **** gonna be ugly. To knowingly go into the season knowing you’re one Poeltl injury away from being a .250 pct team is grounds for FO firing.

Anyways, this is an argument I’m happy to eventually be shown to lose because it would mean at least some good ball to watch, but I just don’t see it.

[TimeForChange]

raps were what 8-14 with a healthy IQ/RJ/Scottie/Poeltl and 6-11 after the pascal trade and before scottie got hurt.

but don't let facts get in the way at projecting a 40 win season next year

[NinjaBro]

https://www.spurstalk.com/forums/showthread.php?t=302746&page=61

A lot of disgust, anxiety, and fear in that thread. For a franchise as lottery blessed and successful as they have been, they are quite the negative lot.

They aren’t wrong on next year either. Easier to see Raptors bottom 6 than play in.

I read the thread, sounds like us

We need to trade Siakam for AJ Griffen before it's too late! - PhilBlackson

[ArthurVandelay]

https://www.spurstalk.com/forums/showthread.php?t=302746&page=61

A lot of disgust, anxiety, and fear in that thread. For a franchise as lottery blessed and successful as they have been, they are quite the negative lot.

They aren’t wrong on next year either. Easier to see Raptors bottom 6 than play in.

I read the thread, sounds like us

We need to trade Siakam for AJ Griffen before it's too late! - PhilBlackson

Yeah, but the Raptors didn’t get 3 franchise players #1 overall, have a 20 year dynasty, or win 4 championships. They need to step away from the keyboard.

[Syd-TK3]

Pacers 0.5 games in the play in

Tough schedule to end the year:
OKC
MIA
TOR
CLE
ATL

Only 1 sure win there with Atlanta

That miami game is so important absolute must win for the tie breaker

[ciueli]

https://www.spurstalk.com/forums/showthread.php?t=302746&page=61

A lot of disgust, anxiety, and fear in that thread. For a franchise as lottery blessed and successful as they have been, they are quite the negative lot.

They aren’t wrong on next year either. Easier to see Raptors bottom 6 than play in.

I don't know about that. Keep in mind, Raps are still in the East, which is looking pretty bad again. And that boards hope that the Spurs will be much improved next year also needs a dose of reality in that they are still playing in the West, which currently sees the 11th place Rockets over .500. In the East, it is the 8th seed Sixers that are the last team over .500.

Look at the bottom of the East next year:
- Detroit: really, how do they improve dramatically, Tobias Harris
- Wiz: will be bottoming out completely, like this year
- Hornets: It is always thought they could jump up, but they always find a way to screw up their season
- Nets: are probably just getting worse
- Hawks: could trade Trae this offseason
- Bulls: could loose DD to FA, if he wants to join a club with a shot at a chip in his last years

I could easily see a Raps team that is healthy, and adds another player this offseason with their cap space, pass all of those teams for the 9th seed at a minimum.

The Raps have managed to bottom out to a 6th worst record due to injuries to Barnes and Yak, and then them just resting other starters. The team can't lose its top 4 players, and expect to do anything. Even OKC has been sliding, because they have sat SGA for a few games, due to injury.

The Raptors only have significant cap space (somewhere around $27M or so) if:
1) The pick conveys this year, if it doesn't and it lands even at 6 (the cheapest option) that cuts possible cap space by over $7M.
2) Bruce Brown's option is not picked up.
3) Every free agent except IQ has their rights renounced.

To be clear, in this hypothetical situation the only players under contract or soon to be signed would be Scottie, IQ, RJ, Jak, Olynyk, Boucher, Gradey, Agbaji, and McDaniels, plus players selected with the Indiana and Detroit picks.

Then begins the discussion around who are they signing with that theoretical $27M in space and whether they will be better than all the players they lose by renouncing their rights. Realistically, it's very likely they will choose to operate as an over the cap team, the biggest indication of this is that they chose to sign Kelly Olynyk to a contract extension this season, that cut possible offseason cap space by almost $13M, not something they would do if they were planning to operate as an under the cap team.

[TheGeneral99]

With Embiid back in the Sixers line-up and if he's able to play most of the remaining games I could see them finishing 5-1. They have an easy schedule with only Miami and Orlando being teams over .500. That would put them at 46-36 and may put them ahead of Indy.

Indy has a tougher schedule.

The big game will be Miami vs. Indy April 7th. That likely decides who has the better record between them.

Hopefully they remain in the play-in. Indy losing in the play-in would be absolutely hilarious, lol.

[NinjaBro]

With Embiid back in the Sixers line-up and if he's able to play most of the remaining games I could see them finishing 5-1. They have an easy schedule with only Miami and Orlando being teams over .500. That would put them at 46-36 and may put them ahead of Indy.

Indy has a tougher schedule.

The big game will be Miami vs. Indy April 7th. That likely decides who has the better record between them.

Hopefully they remain in the play-in. Indy losing in the play-in would be absolutely hilarious, lol.

And they have to max Siakam, oh mama

We need to trade Siakam for AJ Griffen before it's too late! - PhilBlackson

[billy_hoyle]

A lot of disgust, anxiety, and fear in that thread. For a franchise as lottery blessed and successful as they have been, they are quite the negative lot.

They aren’t wrong on next year either. Easier to see Raptors bottom 6 than play in.

I don't know about that. Keep in mind, Raps are still in the East, which is looking pretty bad again. And that boards hope that the Spurs will be much improved next year also needs a dose of reality in that they are still playing in the West, which currently sees the 11th place Rockets over .500. In the East, it is the 8th seed Sixers that are the last team over .500.

Look at the bottom of the East next year:
- Detroit: really, how do they improve dramatically, Tobias Harris
- Wiz: will be bottoming out completely, like this year
- Hornets: It is always thought they could jump up, but they always find a way to screw up their season
- Nets: are probably just getting worse
- Hawks: could trade Trae this offseason
- Bulls: could loose DD to FA, if he wants to join a club with a shot at a chip in his last years

I could easily see a Raps team that is healthy, and adds another player this offseason with their cap space, pass all of those teams for the 9th seed at a minimum.

The Raps have managed to bottom out to a 6th worst record due to injuries to Barnes and Yak, and then them just resting other starters. The team can't lose its top 4 players, and expect to do anything. Even OKC has been sliding, because they have sat SGA for a few games, due to injury.

The Raptors only have significant cap space (somewhere around $27M or so) if:
1) The pick conveys this year, if it doesn't and it lands even at 6 (the cheapest option) that cuts possible cap space by over $7M.
2) Bruce Brown's option is not picked up.
3) Every free agent except IQ has their rights renounced.

To be clear, in this hypothetical situation the only players under contract or soon to be signed would be Scottie, IQ, RJ, Jak, Olynyk, Boucher, Gradey, Agbaji, and McDaniels, plus players selected with the Indiana and Detroit picks.

Then begins the discussion around who are they signing with that theoretical $27M in space and whether they will be better than all the players they lose by renouncing their rights. Realistically, it's very likely they will choose to operate as an over the cap team, the biggest indication of this is that they chose to sign Kelly Olynyk to a contract extension this season, that cut possible offseason cap space by almost $13M, not something they would do if they were planning to operate as an under the cap team.

I'd argue that's exactly what they would do if they wanted to use cap space. Lock down the guy they want to keep (Kelly) instead of having his cap hold which is greater than his salary for next year. We've opened up more cap space by signing Olynyk early.

Optimal way forward if you want to keep KO:
Sign KO to extension (lower than cap hold) - check
Renounce all FA and options save IQ (bye GTJ, Brown etc)
Sign FA (Melton, Pat Williams, Claxton, J Smith, S. Bey)
Use room exception (resign Nwora?)
Resign our RFA (IQ)

So, I think it's the opposite.

[ArthurVandelay]

I don't know about that. Keep in mind, Raps are still in the East, which is looking pretty bad again. And that boards hope that the Spurs will be much improved next year also needs a dose of reality in that they are still playing in the West, which currently sees the 11th place Rockets over .500. In the East, it is the 8th seed Sixers that are the last team over .500.

Look at the bottom of the East next year:
- Detroit: really, how do they improve dramatically, Tobias Harris
- Wiz: will be bottoming out completely, like this year
- Hornets: It is always thought they could jump up, but they always find a way to screw up their season
- Nets: are probably just getting worse
- Hawks: could trade Trae this offseason
- Bulls: could loose DD to FA, if he wants to join a club with a shot at a chip in his last years

I could easily see a Raps team that is healthy, and adds another player this offseason with their cap space, pass all of those teams for the 9th seed at a minimum.

The Raps have managed to bottom out to a 6th worst record due to injuries to Barnes and Yak, and then them just resting other starters. The team can't lose its top 4 players, and expect to do anything. Even OKC has been sliding, because they have sat SGA for a few games, due to injury.

The Raptors only have significant cap space (somewhere around $27M or so) if:
1) The pick conveys this year, if it doesn't and it lands even at 6 (the cheapest option) that cuts possible cap space by over $7M.
2) Bruce Brown's option is not picked up.
3) Every free agent except IQ has their rights renounced.

To be clear, in this hypothetical situation the only players under contract or soon to be signed would be Scottie, IQ, RJ, Jak, Olynyk, Boucher, Gradey, Agbaji, and McDaniels, plus players selected with the Indiana and Detroit picks.

Then begins the discussion around who are they signing with that theoretical $27M in space and whether they will be better than all the players they lose by renouncing their rights. Realistically, it's very likely they will choose to operate as an over the cap team, the biggest indication of this is that they chose to sign Kelly Olynyk to a contract extension this season, that cut possible offseason cap space by almost $13M, not something they would do if they were planning to operate as an under the cap team.

I'd argue that's exactly what they would do if they wanted to use cap space. Lock down the guy they want to keep (Kelly) instead of having his cap hold which is greater than his salary for next year. We've opened up more cap space by signing Olynyk early.

Optimal way forward if you want to keep KO:
Sign KO to extension (lower than cap hold) - check
Renounce all FA and options save IQ (bye GTJ, Brown etc)
Sign FA (Melton, Pat Williams, Claxton, J Smith, S. Bey)
Use room exception (resign Nwora?)
Resign our RFA (IQ)

So, I think it's the opposite.

You lost me at resign Nwora lol

But if he did come back, he’d be minimum. Giving him $7m a year would be as big a blunder as McDaniels

[gerrit4]

The Raptors only have significant cap space (somewhere around $27M or so) if:
1) The pick conveys this year, if it doesn't and it lands even at 6 (the cheapest option) that cuts possible cap space by over $7M.
2) Bruce Brown's option is not picked up.
3) Every free agent except IQ has their rights renounced.

To be clear, in this hypothetical situation the only players under contract or soon to be signed would be Scottie, IQ, RJ, Jak, Olynyk, Boucher, Gradey, Agbaji, and McDaniels, plus players selected with the Indiana and Detroit picks.

Then begins the discussion around who are they signing with that theoretical $27M in space and whether they will be better than all the players they lose by renouncing their rights. Realistically, it's very likely they will choose to operate as an over the cap team, the biggest indication of this is that they chose to sign Kelly Olynyk to a contract extension this season, that cut possible offseason cap space by almost $13M, not something they would do if they were planning to operate as an under the cap team.

If I'm remembering correctly from a Blake Murphy article, he seemed to believe that re-signing Olynyk before free agency made a lot more sense than waiting for free agency. I believe his cap hold was higher than what we signed him for, so if the plan was to keep him in free agency and sign someone else, this did give us some more space to to do that.

I also think that this front office has no interest in developing three first round picks (if we consider #31 a borderline FRP) in the coming season. So if we do get a top 6 pick, I'll bet they will look to move the Pacers pick for a 2025 pick so we can have something in that draft. Or maybe they draft someone at #31 that they stash in Europe for a year (although the savings for that would be much less).

I do think this team could be better next year, as we'd expect better injury luck, hope for significant development from Scottie, Gradey, IQ, RJ, and maybe Ochai, I'd expect there will be better coaching (either from Darko or a new guy), and guys like Kelly, Jakob and Boucher (if he's back) are still playing like their prime versions of themselves. I'd imagine this team will make some sort of move to get size in the offseason as well.

[JB7]

A lot of disgust, anxiety, and fear in that thread. For a franchise as lottery blessed and successful as they have been, they are quite the negative lot.

They aren’t wrong on next year either. Easier to see Raptors bottom 6 than play in.

I don't know about that. Keep in mind, Raps are still in the East, which is looking pretty bad again. And that boards hope that the Spurs will be much improved next year also needs a dose of reality in that they are still playing in the West, which currently sees the 11th place Rockets over .500. In the East, it is the 8th seed Sixers that are the last team over .500.

Look at the bottom of the East next year:
- Detroit: really, how do they improve dramatically, Tobias Harris
- Wiz: will be bottoming out completely, like this year
- Hornets: It is always thought they could jump up, but they always find a way to screw up their season
- Nets: are probably just getting worse
- Hawks: could trade Trae this offseason
- Bulls: could loose DD to FA, if he wants to join a club with a shot at a chip in his last years

I could easily see a Raps team that is healthy, and adds another player this offseason with their cap space, pass all of those teams for the 9th seed at a minimum.

The Raps have managed to bottom out to a 6th worst record due to injuries to Barnes and Yak, and then them just resting other starters. The team can't lose its top 4 players, and expect to do anything. Even OKC has been sliding, because they have sat SGA for a few games, due to injury.

The Raptors only have significant cap space (somewhere around $27M or so) if:
1) The pick conveys this year, if it doesn't and it lands even at 6 (the cheapest option) that cuts possible cap space by over $7M.
2) Bruce Brown's option is not picked up.
3) Every free agent except IQ has their rights renounced.

To be clear, in this hypothetical situation the only players under contract or soon to be signed would be Scottie, IQ, RJ, Jak, Olynyk, Boucher, Gradey, Agbaji, and McDaniels, plus players selected with the Indiana and Detroit picks.

Then begins the discussion around who are they signing with that theoretical $27M in space and whether they will be better than all the players they lose by renouncing their rights. Realistically, it's very likely they will choose to operate as an over the cap team, the biggest indication of this is that they chose to sign Kelly Olynyk to a contract extension this season, that cut possible offseason cap space by almost $13M, not something they would do if they were planning to operate as an under the cap team.

Worse case scenario this offseason is they don't pick up BB option & renounce GTJ, and then trade McDaniels (unload his contract) for Wiggins, and absorb his contract into the cap space (if they need more space, they could also move Boucher in the deal). Wiggins gives them a starting SF and wing defender. His contract also expires the same year as RJ, Yak and Gradey. This is the worst case scenario. I think they could also try and pursue one of Herb Jones or Trey Murphy III, if NO is looking to make a deal (TM3 is in the last year of his rookie deal next season), but those guys would obviously cost much more than Wiggins in a trade.

They could also probably try signing Lowry as backup PG this offseason.

Then they are looking at a rotation of:
C) Yak (Olynyk)
PF) Barnes
SF) Wiggins (Ochai)
SG) RJ (Gradey)
PG) IQ (Lowry)
- Boucher, Temple (maybe bring him back as a veteran voice on the bench), potentially 3 draft picks on the roster, and then one additional spot (possibly JFL).

[MiamiSPX]

I also think that this front office has no interest in developing three first round picks (if we consider #31 a borderline FRP) in the coming season. So if we do get a top 6 pick, I'll bet they will look to move the Pacers pick for a 2025 pick so we can have something in that draft. Or maybe they draft someone at #31 that they stash in Europe for a year (although the savings for that would be much less).

At the time of the Siakam trade it looked like we would convey the pick and we would have the Indy pick, OKC pick, and DET pick, In his PC after the trade, Masai all but said he had no interest in keeping all 3 picks. He followed that up by moving the OKC pick but now we are back to potentially having 3 picks again. You are correct in that if we keep our top 6 pick, he is moving one of the other ones, more than likely the Indy pick. Except I don't think he will move it for a '25 pick (which nobody seemingly wants to part with). I think it will be used with Brown and/or Boucher for a "win now" move.

Not saying I want that or even agree with it, but we all know Masai is not about adding 3 rookies to this roster. I'd be shocked if that happened.

[TheGeneral99]

I don't know about that. Keep in mind, Raps are still in the East, which is looking pretty bad again. And that boards hope that the Spurs will be much improved next year also needs a dose of reality in that they are still playing in the West, which currently sees the 11th place Rockets over .500. In the East, it is the 8th seed Sixers that are the last team over .500.

Look at the bottom of the East next year:
- Detroit: really, how do they improve dramatically, Tobias Harris
- Wiz: will be bottoming out completely, like this year
- Hornets: It is always thought they could jump up, but they always find a way to screw up their season
- Nets: are probably just getting worse
- Hawks: could trade Trae this offseason
- Bulls: could loose DD to FA, if he wants to join a club with a shot at a chip in his last years

I could easily see a Raps team that is healthy, and adds another player this offseason with their cap space, pass all of those teams for the 9th seed at a minimum.

The Raps have managed to bottom out to a 6th worst record due to injuries to Barnes and Yak, and then them just resting other starters. The team can't lose its top 4 players, and expect to do anything. Even OKC has been sliding, because they have sat SGA for a few games, due to injury.

The Raptors only have significant cap space (somewhere around $27M or so) if:
1) The pick conveys this year, if it doesn't and it lands even at 6 (the cheapest option) that cuts possible cap space by over $7M.
2) Bruce Brown's option is not picked up.
3) Every free agent except IQ has their rights renounced.

To be clear, in this hypothetical situation the only players under contract or soon to be signed would be Scottie, IQ, RJ, Jak, Olynyk, Boucher, Gradey, Agbaji, and McDaniels, plus players selected with the Indiana and Detroit picks.

Then begins the discussion around who are they signing with that theoretical $27M in space and whether they will be better than all the players they lose by renouncing their rights. Realistically, it's very likely they will choose to operate as an over the cap team, the biggest indication of this is that they chose to sign Kelly Olynyk to a contract extension this season, that cut possible offseason cap space by almost $13M, not something they would do if they were planning to operate as an under the cap team.

Worse case scenario this offseason is they don't pick up BB option & renounce GTJ, and then trade McDaniels (unload his contract) for Wiggins, and absorb his contract into the cap space (if they need more space, they could also move Boucher in the deal). Wiggins gives them a starting SF and wing defender. His contract also expires the same year as RJ, Yak and Gradey. This is the worst case scenario. I think they could also try and pursue one of Herb Jones or Trey Murphy III, if NO is looking to make a deal (TM3 is in the last year of his rookie deal next season), but those guys would obviously cost much more than Wiggins in a trade.

They could also probably try signing Lowry as backup PG this offseason.

Then they are looking at a rotation of:
C) Yak (Olynyk)
PF) Barnes
SF) Wiggins (Ochai)
SG) RJ (Gradey)
PG) IQ (Lowry)
- Boucher, Temple (maybe bring him back as a veteran voice on the bench), potentially 3 draft picks on the roster, and then one additional spot (possibly JFL).

Yeah your core next year is Quickley, Barrett, Barnes, Poeltl, Dick, Olynyk and Boucher.

Hopefully you can trade Boucher and/or Brown.

Hopefully you add a top 6 pick and a top 16 pick in the mix as well.

And we have a ton of cap space to fill in the gaps.

[JB7]

A lot of disgust, anxiety, and fear in that thread. For a franchise as lottery blessed and successful as they have been, they are quite the negative lot.

They aren’t wrong on next year either. Easier to see Raptors bottom 6 than play in.

I don't know about that. Keep in mind, Raps are still in the East, which is looking pretty bad again. And that boards hope that the Spurs will be much improved next year also needs a dose of reality in that they are still playing in the West, which currently sees the 11th place Rockets over .500. In the East, it is the 8th seed Sixers that are the last team over .500.

Look at the bottom of the East next year:
- Detroit: really, how do they improve dramatically, Tobias Harris
- Wiz: will be bottoming out completely, like this year
- Hornets: It is always thought they could jump up, but they always find a way to screw up their season
- Nets: are probably just getting worse
- Hawks: could trade Trae this offseason
- Bulls: could loose DD to FA, if he wants to join a club with a shot at a chip in his last years

I could easily see a Raps team that is healthy, and adds another player this offseason with their cap space, pass all of those teams for the 9th seed at a minimum.

The Raps have managed to bottom out to a 6th worst record due to injuries to Barnes and Yak, and then them just resting other starters. The team can't lose its top 4 players, and expect to do anything. Even OKC has been sliding, because they have sat SGA for a few games, due to injury.

None of those teams listed are currently in a place to intentionally tank another season except Washington.

New owners in Charlotte.
Patience for losing by ownership run out in Detroit.
Nets don’t own their pick.
Hawks don’t own their pick (and have played better without Trae, 14-11).
Bulls are a wildcard, but DD will play where he is paid.

I don’t think people appreciate how important depth and talent is. The Raptors, even with Barnes and Poeltl, are not deep. When the big 3 is IQ,RJ,Barnes, while I love all those guys, that isn’t top tier talent outside Scottie.

What happens with Poeltl will be the tell. They are 2-23 without him. Start KO next season, have a bench of rookies and projects to develop, dead cap, and Temple then **** gonna be ugly. To knowingly go into the season knowing you’re one Poeltl injury away from being a .250 pct team is grounds for FO firing.

Anyways, this is an argument I’m happy to eventually be shown to lose because it would mean at least some good ball to watch, but I just don’t see it.

Most of those teams were trying to win this year (Nets, Hawks, Bulls). Even Detroit was trying to turn it around this year, and look where they ended up. What is going to change for these organizations, including Charlotte, that might mean they would jump ahead of a healthy Raps team?

Charlotte is relying on LeMelo coming back and being impactful. He has only played 36 and 22 games the last 2 seasons, he has already been paid (new 5 year deal kicks in next season) and now there are questions about how is ankles are going to hold up.

What are the Nets adding? Are they relying on Simmons returning?

Hawks have played marginally better without Trae, but how much can you trust a March record, when teams are tanking hard.

Bulls are a complete wildcard. When do they finally push the reset button?

Detroit has already played its hand with the big contract for the new coach. Next step is a big trade of one of their young pieces, but I don't see that producing immediate results.

The bottom of the East is really bad. A healthy Raps team, is not that bad. Too be that bad means sitting Barnes, Yak, RJ & IQ. This team only got away with that this year because both Barnes and Yak got fluky injuries, and RJ of course because of his family tragedy.

[ArthurVandelay]

I don't know about that. Keep in mind, Raps are still in the East, which is looking pretty bad again. And that boards hope that the Spurs will be much improved next year also needs a dose of reality in that they are still playing in the West, which currently sees the 11th place Rockets over .500. In the East, it is the 8th seed Sixers that are the last team over .500.

Look at the bottom of the East next year:
- Detroit: really, how do they improve dramatically, Tobias Harris
- Wiz: will be bottoming out completely, like this year
- Hornets: It is always thought they could jump up, but they always find a way to screw up their season
- Nets: are probably just getting worse
- Hawks: could trade Trae this offseason
- Bulls: could loose DD to FA, if he wants to join a club with a shot at a chip in his last years

I could easily see a Raps team that is healthy, and adds another player this offseason with their cap space, pass all of those teams for the 9th seed at a minimum.

The Raps have managed to bottom out to a 6th worst record due to injuries to Barnes and Yak, and then them just resting other starters. The team can't lose its top 4 players, and expect to do anything. Even OKC has been sliding, because they have sat SGA for a few games, due to injury.

None of those teams listed are currently in a place to intentionally tank another season except Washington.

New owners in Charlotte.
Patience for losing by ownership run out in Detroit.
Nets don’t own their pick.
Hawks don’t own their pick (and have played better without Trae, 14-11).
Bulls are a wildcard, but DD will play where he is paid.

I don’t think people appreciate how important depth and talent is. The Raptors, even with Barnes and Poeltl, are not deep. When the big 3 is IQ,RJ,Barnes, while I love all those guys, that isn’t top tier talent outside Scottie.

What happens with Poeltl will be the tell. They are 2-23 without him. Start KO next season, have a bench of rookies and projects to develop, dead cap, and Temple then **** gonna be ugly. To knowingly go into the season knowing you’re one Poeltl injury away from being a .250 pct team is grounds for FO firing.

Anyways, this is an argument I’m happy to eventually be shown to lose because it would mean at least some good ball to watch, but I just don’t see it.

Most of those teams were not trying to tank this year (Nets, Hawks, Bulls). Even Detroit was trying to turn it around this year, and look where they ended up. What is going to change for these organizations, including Charlotte, that might mean they would jump ahead of a healthy Raps team?

Charlotte is relying on LeMelo coming back and being impactful. He has only played 36 and 22 games the last 2 seasons, he has already been paid (new 5 year deal kicks in next season) and now there are questions about how is ankles are going to hold up.

What are the Nets adding? Are they relying on Simmons returning?

Hawks have played marginally better without Trae, but how much can you trust a March record, when teams are tanking hard.

Bulls are a complete wildcard. When do they finally push the reset button?

Detroit has already played its hand with the big contract for the new coach. Next step is a big trade of one of their young pieces, but I don't see that producing immediate results.

The bottom of the East is really bad. A healthy Raps team, is not that bad. Too be that bad means sitting Barnes, Yak, RJ & IQ. This team only got away with that this year because both Barnes and Yak got fluky injuries, and RJ of course because of his family tragedy.

I think you’re underestimating the other teams ability and desire to improve while overestimating what a team of Barnes, Poeltl, RJ, and IQ can do without any depth.

They all want to get better than they are, except Washington.

I keep saying what happens with Poeltl will be the tell. We’ll see what happens but there is definitely a path for Toronto to be at the bottom of the league standings next season….hopefully it’s intentional.

[Tor_Raps]

raps were what 8-14 with a healthy IQ/RJ/Scottie/Poeltl and 6-11 after the pascal trade and before scottie got hurt.

but don't let facts get in the way at projecting a 40 win season next year

People actually think that the Raptors will be the only team that is allowed to improve this offseason while everyone else will stay the same or get worse loll.

[ArthurVandelay]

Something else to consider

Haliburton needs to play 65 games and at least 20 minutes in each game to be award (ie super max) eligible.

He’s played 64 games but one game was just 13 mins

OKC (5th) and Miami (7th) games put him at 65 with minimum 20 minutes.

That leaves 3 games left vs Toronto (9th), Cleveland 12th), and Atlanta (14th).

I doubt he sits because they are going to be doing all they can to avoid play in, but if they resign themselves to that inevitability, he might sit.