Pacers Pick Tracking (Update: #19 officially)

[JB7]

None of those teams listed are currently in a place to intentionally tank another season except Washington.

New owners in Charlotte.
Patience for losing by ownership run out in Detroit.
Nets don’t own their pick.
Hawks don’t own their pick (and have played better without Trae, 14-11).
Bulls are a wildcard, but DD will play where he is paid.

I don’t think people appreciate how important depth and talent is. The Raptors, even with Barnes and Poeltl, are not deep. When the big 3 is IQ,RJ,Barnes, while I love all those guys, that isn’t top tier talent outside Scottie.

What happens with Poeltl will be the tell. They are 2-23 without him. Start KO next season, have a bench of rookies and projects to develop, dead cap, and Temple then **** gonna be ugly. To knowingly go into the season knowing you’re one Poeltl injury away from being a .250 pct team is grounds for FO firing.

Anyways, this is an argument I’m happy to eventually be shown to lose because it would mean at least some good ball to watch, but I just don’t see it.

Most of those teams were not trying to tank this year (Nets, Hawks, Bulls). Even Detroit was trying to turn it around this year, and look where they ended up. What is going to change for these organizations, including Charlotte, that might mean they would jump ahead of a healthy Raps team?

Charlotte is relying on LeMelo coming back and being impactful. He has only played 36 and 22 games the last 2 seasons, he has already been paid (new 5 year deal kicks in next season) and now there are questions about how is ankles are going to hold up.

What are the Nets adding? Are they relying on Simmons returning?

Hawks have played marginally better without Trae, but how much can you trust a March record, when teams are tanking hard.

Bulls are a complete wildcard. When do they finally push the reset button?

Detroit has already played its hand with the big contract for the new coach. Next step is a big trade of one of their young pieces, but I don't see that producing immediate results.

The bottom of the East is really bad. A healthy Raps team, is not that bad. Too be that bad means sitting Barnes, Yak, RJ & IQ. This team only got away with that this year because both Barnes and Yak got fluky injuries, and RJ of course because of his family tragedy.

I think you’re underestimating the other teams ability and desire to improve while overestimating what a team of Barnes, Poeltl, RJ, and IQ can do without any depth.

They all want to get better than they are, except Washington.

I keep saying what happens with Poeltl will be the tell. We’ll see what happens but there is definitely a path for Toronto to be at the bottom of the league standings next season.

Most teams are not that deep. The Celtics have the best record, and the rotation they will rely on in the playoffs will be 6 deep.

Generally, Barnes, Yak, RJ and IQ have been healthy and players that could be relied on to play. I expect next year to be different. Two fluke injuries this season.

The ability for those teams to improve is limited. Raps already made their moves. Most of those teams are actually primed to go the tanking route than to win, but what is holding them up from tanking is they don’t control their draft picks. Just because they are motivated to win doesn't mean they don’t suck, and have very little room for improvement.

[TimeForChange]

raps were what 8-14 with a healthy IQ/RJ/Scottie/Poeltl and 6-11 after the pascal trade and before scottie got hurt.

but don't let facts get in the way at projecting a 40 win season next year

People actually think that the Raptors will be the only team that is allowed to improve this offseason while everyone else will stay the same or get worse loll.

toronto is a preferred free agent destination, so I can see where their optimism comes from

[ciueli]

I don't know about that. Keep in mind, Raps are still in the East, which is looking pretty bad again. And that boards hope that the Spurs will be much improved next year also needs a dose of reality in that they are still playing in the West, which currently sees the 11th place Rockets over .500. In the East, it is the 8th seed Sixers that are the last team over .500.

Look at the bottom of the East next year:
- Detroit: really, how do they improve dramatically, Tobias Harris
- Wiz: will be bottoming out completely, like this year
- Hornets: It is always thought they could jump up, but they always find a way to screw up their season
- Nets: are probably just getting worse
- Hawks: could trade Trae this offseason
- Bulls: could loose DD to FA, if he wants to join a club with a shot at a chip in his last years

I could easily see a Raps team that is healthy, and adds another player this offseason with their cap space, pass all of those teams for the 9th seed at a minimum.

The Raps have managed to bottom out to a 6th worst record due to injuries to Barnes and Yak, and then them just resting other starters. The team can't lose its top 4 players, and expect to do anything. Even OKC has been sliding, because they have sat SGA for a few games, due to injury.

The Raptors only have significant cap space (somewhere around $27M or so) if:
1) The pick conveys this year, if it doesn't and it lands even at 6 (the cheapest option) that cuts possible cap space by over $7M.
2) Bruce Brown's option is not picked up.
3) Every free agent except IQ has their rights renounced.

To be clear, in this hypothetical situation the only players under contract or soon to be signed would be Scottie, IQ, RJ, Jak, Olynyk, Boucher, Gradey, Agbaji, and McDaniels, plus players selected with the Indiana and Detroit picks.

Then begins the discussion around who are they signing with that theoretical $27M in space and whether they will be better than all the players they lose by renouncing their rights. Realistically, it's very likely they will choose to operate as an over the cap team, the biggest indication of this is that they chose to sign Kelly Olynyk to a contract extension this season, that cut possible offseason cap space by almost $13M, not something they would do if they were planning to operate as an under the cap team.

I'd argue that's exactly what they would do if they wanted to use cap space. Lock down the guy they want to keep (Kelly) instead of having his cap hold which is greater than his salary for next year. We've opened up more cap space by signing Olynyk early.

Optimal way forward if you want to keep KO:
Sign KO to extension (lower than cap hold) - check
Renounce all FA and options save IQ (bye GTJ, Brown etc)
Sign FA (Melton, Pat Williams, Claxton, J Smith, S. Bey)
Use room exception (resign Nwora?)
Resign our RFA (IQ)

So, I think it's the opposite.

What you're missing is that by signing Kelly to a contract this year it cut their flexibility if they decide to operate as an under the cap team. They always could have offered Kelly the same deal in the offseason, his cap hold is irrelevant, there really was no upside to giving it to him now unless they thought some other team was going to throw more money or more years at him, and if there was any chance of this Kelly would have waited to the offseason to test free agency to get a better deal. Kelly said yes to this extension because there's a good chance it's more than any other team offers him in free agency.

Now it's impossible to, say, restructure his contract to give him additional years at a lower figure to open up more space if necessary to get who they want, or simply not sign him at all because they wound up taking players with similar skills via the draft or an unexpected trade happened and they no longer need him. The simplest answer as to why they signed him now is that they aren't planning to use cap space, they are planning on operating as an over the cap team and they are intending to make changes to the roster with draft picks, trades, and the MLE. By signing Kelly to an extension now they give themselves the most flexibility to improve the team this way because they can trade Kelly if necessary in the offseason.

[TimeForChange]

The Raptors only have significant cap space (somewhere around $27M or so) if:
1) The pick conveys this year, if it doesn't and it lands even at 6 (the cheapest option) that cuts possible cap space by over $7M.
2) Bruce Brown's option is not picked up.
3) Every free agent except IQ has their rights renounced.

To be clear, in this hypothetical situation the only players under contract or soon to be signed would be Scottie, IQ, RJ, Jak, Olynyk, Boucher, Gradey, Agbaji, and McDaniels, plus players selected with the Indiana and Detroit picks.

Then begins the discussion around who are they signing with that theoretical $27M in space and whether they will be better than all the players they lose by renouncing their rights. Realistically, it's very likely they will choose to operate as an over the cap team, the biggest indication of this is that they chose to sign Kelly Olynyk to a contract extension this season, that cut possible offseason cap space by almost $13M, not something they would do if they were planning to operate as an under the cap team.

I'd argue that's exactly what they would do if they wanted to use cap space. Lock down the guy they want to keep (Kelly) instead of having his cap hold which is greater than his salary for next year. We've opened up more cap space by signing Olynyk early.

Optimal way forward if you want to keep KO:
Sign KO to extension (lower than cap hold) - check
Renounce all FA and options save IQ (bye GTJ, Brown etc)
Sign FA (Melton, Pat Williams, Claxton, J Smith, S. Bey)
Use room exception (resign Nwora?)
Resign our RFA (IQ)

So, I think it's the opposite.

What you're missing is that by signing Kelly to a contract this year it cut their flexibility if they decide to operate as an under the cap team. They always could have offered Kelly the same deal in the offseason, his cap hold is irrelevant, there really was no upside to giving it to him now unless they thought some other team was going to throw more money or more years at him, and if there was any chance of this Kelly would have waited to the offseason to test free agency to get a better deal. Kelly said yes to this extension because there's a good chance it's more than any other team offers him in free agency.

Now it's impossible to, say, restructure his contract to give him additional years at a lower figure to open up more space if necessary to get who they want, or simply not sign him at all because they wound up taking players with similar skills via the draft or an unexpected trade happened and they no longer need him. The simplest answer as to why they signed him now is that they aren't planning to use cap space, they are planning on operating as an over the cap team and they are intending to make changes to the roster with draft picks, trades, and the MLE. By signing Kelly to an extension now they give themselves the most flexibility to improve the team this way because they can trade Kelly if necessary in the offseason.

I think people here will be surprised when GTJ and BB are both Raptors next season.

[billy_hoyle]

The Raptors only have significant cap space (somewhere around $27M or so) if:
1) The pick conveys this year, if it doesn't and it lands even at 6 (the cheapest option) that cuts possible cap space by over $7M.
2) Bruce Brown's option is not picked up.
3) Every free agent except IQ has their rights renounced.

To be clear, in this hypothetical situation the only players under contract or soon to be signed would be Scottie, IQ, RJ, Jak, Olynyk, Boucher, Gradey, Agbaji, and McDaniels, plus players selected with the Indiana and Detroit picks.

Then begins the discussion around who are they signing with that theoretical $27M in space and whether they will be better than all the players they lose by renouncing their rights. Realistically, it's very likely they will choose to operate as an over the cap team, the biggest indication of this is that they chose to sign Kelly Olynyk to a contract extension this season, that cut possible offseason cap space by almost $13M, not something they would do if they were planning to operate as an under the cap team.

I'd argue that's exactly what they would do if they wanted to use cap space. Lock down the guy they want to keep (Kelly) instead of having his cap hold which is greater than his salary for next year. We've opened up more cap space by signing Olynyk early.

Optimal way forward if you want to keep KO:
Sign KO to extension (lower than cap hold) - check
Renounce all FA and options save IQ (bye GTJ, Brown etc)
Sign FA (Melton, Pat Williams, Claxton, J Smith, S. Bey)
Use room exception (resign Nwora?)
Resign our RFA (IQ)

So, I think it's the opposite.

What you're missing is that by signing Kelly to a contract this year it cut their flexibility if they decide to operate as an under the cap team. They always could have offered Kelly the same deal in the offseason, his cap hold is irrelevant, there really was no upside to giving it to him now unless they thought some other team was going to throw more money or more years at him, and if there was any chance of this Kelly would have waited to the offseason to test free agency to get a better deal. Kelly said yes to this extension because there's a good chance it's more than any other team offers him in free agency.

Now it's impossible to, say, restructure his contract to give him additional years at a lower figure to open up more space if necessary to get who they want, or simply not sign him at all because they wound up taking players with similar skills via the draft or an unexpected trade happened and they no longer need him. The simplest answer as to why they signed him now is that they aren't planning to use cap space, they are planning on operating as an over the cap team and they are intending to make changes to the roster with draft picks, trades, and the MLE. By signing Kelly to an extension now they give themselves the most flexibility to improve the team this way because they can trade Kelly if necessary in the offseason.

Your logic isn't logical to me.

The only upside you're suggesting here is to allow for a trade in the summer (that seems to be very low down in the priority of reasons to sign KO IMO).

By locking down his salary now, we know as soon as the draft lottery results come in how much cap space we have. Now we can make offers the first minute of FA. Without that certainty we are literally juggling KOs offer (which we obviously wanted to sign him because... we DID sign him to an extension?) and getting him to accept when he might have multiple suitors. We would then be in chaos mode without a fixed number to offer other FAs.

We shall see how it plays out, but I certainly think it makes more sense to try and pursue the aforementioned group of FA (Melton, Claxton, Bey etc) than retain Brown and GTJ. The other players are just flat out better fits and better players.

[ciueli]

I'd argue that's exactly what they would do if they wanted to use cap space. Lock down the guy they want to keep (Kelly) instead of having his cap hold which is greater than his salary for next year. We've opened up more cap space by signing Olynyk early.

Optimal way forward if you want to keep KO:
Sign KO to extension (lower than cap hold) - check
Renounce all FA and options save IQ (bye GTJ, Brown etc)
Sign FA (Melton, Pat Williams, Claxton, J Smith, S. Bey)
Use room exception (resign Nwora?)
Resign our RFA (IQ)

So, I think it's the opposite.

What you're missing is that by signing Kelly to a contract this year it cut their flexibility if they decide to operate as an under the cap team. They always could have offered Kelly the same deal in the offseason, his cap hold is irrelevant, there really was no upside to giving it to him now unless they thought some other team was going to throw more money or more years at him, and if there was any chance of this Kelly would have waited to the offseason to test free agency to get a better deal. Kelly said yes to this extension because there's a good chance it's more than any other team offers him in free agency.

Now it's impossible to, say, restructure his contract to give him additional years at a lower figure to open up more space if necessary to get who they want, or simply not sign him at all because they wound up taking players with similar skills via the draft or an unexpected trade happened and they no longer need him. The simplest answer as to why they signed him now is that they aren't planning to use cap space, they are planning on operating as an over the cap team and they are intending to make changes to the roster with draft picks, trades, and the MLE. By signing Kelly to an extension now they give themselves the most flexibility to improve the team this way because they can trade Kelly if necessary in the offseason.

Your logic isn't logical to me.

The only upside you're suggesting here is to allow for a trade in the summer (that seems to be very low down in the priority of reasons to sign KO IMO).

By locking down his salary now, we know as soon as the draft lottery results come in how much cap space we have. Now we can make offers the first minute of FA. Without that certainty we are literally juggling KOs offer (which we obviously wanted to sign him because... we DID sign him to an extension?) and getting him to accept when he might have multiple suitors. We would then be in chaos mode without a fixed number to offer other FAs.

We shall see how it plays out, but I certainly think it makes more sense to try and pursue the aforementioned group of FA (Melton, Claxton, Bey etc) than retain Brown and GTJ. The other players are just flat out better fits and better players.

Claxton will get more money from the Nets than us, he's starting for them and he'd be a backup for us, a poor fit with Jakob on the roster as neither are floor spacers, it would only make sense if you think we're trading Jakob. In any case, signing him would almost certainly use the majority of the space and leave us with no other major free agency additions, ultimately it makes far more sense for the Nets to keep him as their only other C on roster at the moment is Day'Ron Sharpe, I doubt we would win a bidding war, if we did I don't see how it helps us.

Melton is not even clearly better than Gary Trent Jr., an undersized SG, I really doubt the front office would prioritize signing him when size is a real issue for this team and I don't believe they've completely given up on their vision 6'9" plan.

Saddiq Bey is not a consistent 3 point shooter, and has horrible defensive numbers for his career, exactly the opposite of what we need (a 3+D wing replacement for OG), I don't see the front office pursuing him and I don't think they'd need cap space even if they did (he currently makes $4.5M).

I assume by J. Smith you mean Jalen Smith, he's RFA so Indiana can match any offer, no guarantee we could get him without an overpay offer to force Indiana's hand, I don't see why we would do this when we already have our starting and backup C position set, again we'd have to trade Jak first to make this make sense. His defensive numbers aren't great but maybe you can handwave that away because he plays for Indiana, hard to know what you'd really be getting there, he's shooting hot from 3 this year but it's a pretty small sample size so there's a risk he reverts to the mean.

Patrick Williams, another guy who is an RFA and Chicago can match any offer, they aren't going to let us poach him I don't know why you even mentioned him.

Again, I don't see Masai clearing cap space just to strike out in free agency like the last two times he went this route. The NBA now is a league where all the good players sign contract extensions, it's rare the players you actually want move between teams in free agency, usually when they do a severe overpay is involved, like when Houston poached Fred from us. The better plan than clearing cap space is keep the players we have and use their short contracts to trade into a better team by sweetening the deal with young players or draft picks, that's how Indiana got Pascal from us after all, that's how I expect Masai to try and get out of this sorry mess he's created.

[ArthurVandelay]

Most of those teams were not trying to tank this year (Nets, Hawks, Bulls). Even Detroit was trying to turn it around this year, and look where they ended up. What is going to change for these organizations, including Charlotte, that might mean they would jump ahead of a healthy Raps team?

Charlotte is relying on LeMelo coming back and being impactful. He has only played 36 and 22 games the last 2 seasons, he has already been paid (new 5 year deal kicks in next season) and now there are questions about how is ankles are going to hold up.

What are the Nets adding? Are they relying on Simmons returning?

Hawks have played marginally better without Trae, but how much can you trust a March record, when teams are tanking hard.

Bulls are a complete wildcard. When do they finally push the reset button?

Detroit has already played its hand with the big contract for the new coach. Next step is a big trade of one of their young pieces, but I don't see that producing immediate results.

The bottom of the East is really bad. A healthy Raps team, is not that bad. Too be that bad means sitting Barnes, Yak, RJ & IQ. This team only got away with that this year because both Barnes and Yak got fluky injuries, and RJ of course because of his family tragedy.

I think you’re underestimating the other teams ability and desire to improve while overestimating what a team of Barnes, Poeltl, RJ, and IQ can do without any depth.

They all want to get better than they are, except Washington.

I keep saying what happens with Poeltl will be the tell. We’ll see what happens but there is definitely a path for Toronto to be at the bottom of the league standings next season.

Most teams are not that deep. The Celtics have the best record, and the rotation they will rely on in the playoffs will be 6 deep.

Generally, Barnes, Yak, RJ and IQ have been healthy and players that could be relied on to play. I expect next year to be different. Two fluke injuries this season.

The ability for those teams to improve is limited. Raps already made their moves. Most of those teams are actually primed to go the tanking route than to win, but what is holding them up from tanking is they don’t control their draft picks. Just because they are motivated to win doesn't mean they don’t suck, and have very little room for improvement.

Playoff rotations tighten, no doubt. But we’re not talking about playing in the playoffs. The Raptors are most definitely not a top 6 team and you can’t ride your 6 best players all year and expect them to be healthy come playoffs. Poeltl, Barnes, IQ, and RJ alone aren’t near enough to sniff the playoffs…I’m generally quite a homer but that core isn’t doing it unless Scottie jumps to legit superstar and IQ and RJ are all stars. Even then you need health and a bench.

The Raptors were bad before and after trades, before and after injuries. The Raptors were and are a poorly constructed team that is now, thankfully, in transition.

My whole premise here is the Raptors are one Poeltl trade or injury away from a lost season. To go into the season with that reality is negligence and should be avoided at all costs. Even keeping him and staying healthy they are looking at 9 or 10 at the absolute best. What’s the point of that?

I think where your argument truly fails is around three points:

1) the ability of other teams to improve.

Detroit will go the Houston route this summer and overpay decent players. They aren’t concerned about the playoffs they just want to stop being the embarrassment/joke of the league. They have $70m in cap space that will buy them 2 legit starters.

Charlotte will be decent if Ball and Williams can even play 60 games. They played 22 and 19 this year. They were 7-12 when they played which is not great but it is 30 wins over 82 game season, plus Miller only showed his potential from December onwards without them.

Brooklyn is bad but they still won 30 games. They have large expiring in Simmons who might actually play in a contract year. They won’t actively pursue the bottom 5 because they have no incentive. Usually to be in the bottom 5, you have to try…Detroit obviously an exception this year.

Atlanta has won 36 games with 6 to play. They are 14-11 without Trae and have Trae to use as a significant trade chip. Jalen Johnson getting better. They might not improve but they aren’t getting much worse.

Chicago is a wild card, but even as mid as they are, if they pay DeRozan and roll with what they have they are winning at least 30 games. Plus they might luck into a LaVine trade with similar outcome to Raptors 2013 Gay trade.

2) the level of improvement needed for the Raptors to get to the bottom 4 in the league isn’t they great.

Detroit, Charlotte, etc don’t need to make the playoffs. They just need to get their win totals at or above 25-28 games. I’m not claiming any of those teams are going to be playing in mid April 2025.

3) how easy it would be for the Raptors to bottom 4-5 if they actually entered the season with the mindset of keeping their pick.

The Raptors were 7th worst at the start of March when many around here proclaimed they were still trying to win. Start up the tank January 1 and they are a bottom 4 team.

Out west the only team of worry is Portland. San Antonio going to be much better next year. Utah will do what they’ve done and be mid until February then keep their top 10 protected pick. Houston and Memphis will be 35 wins minimum. Lakers and GSW aren’t tanking. Sacramento, Phoenix, NO fighting for Play in and playoffs.

Trade or an early injury to Poeltl and the Raptors are easily in the mix to be one of the worst next season ahead of Washington who will likely be a league of their own for awful.

Anyways I don’t think I’m changing your mind. You’re definitely not changing mine lol. We’ll see what Masai does this draft and summer but if he just adds some rookies and keeps the team as is, going to be a disappointing season next year. What they do with Poeltl will be the tell about if they are working to keep the 2025 pick assuming it does not convey this year.

[MiamiSPX]

I think people here will be surprised when GTJ and BB are both Raptors next season.

Well, Masai does have some weird new idea that players increase in value the closer they get to UFA status, but in Brown's case I would be surprised. Solely for the fact that he doesn't want to be on the team and Masai will accommodate that.

[billy_hoyle]

What you're missing is that by signing Kelly to a contract this year it cut their flexibility if they decide to operate as an under the cap team. They always could have offered Kelly the same deal in the offseason, his cap hold is irrelevant, there really was no upside to giving it to him now unless they thought some other team was going to throw more money or more years at him, and if there was any chance of this Kelly would have waited to the offseason to test free agency to get a better deal. Kelly said yes to this extension because there's a good chance it's more than any other team offers him in free agency.

Now it's impossible to, say, restructure his contract to give him additional years at a lower figure to open up more space if necessary to get who they want, or simply not sign him at all because they wound up taking players with similar skills via the draft or an unexpected trade happened and they no longer need him. The simplest answer as to why they signed him now is that they aren't planning to use cap space, they are planning on operating as an over the cap team and they are intending to make changes to the roster with draft picks, trades, and the MLE. By signing Kelly to an extension now they give themselves the most flexibility to improve the team this way because they can trade Kelly if necessary in the offseason.

Your logic isn't logical to me.

The only upside you're suggesting here is to allow for a trade in the summer (that seems to be very low down in the priority of reasons to sign KO IMO).

By locking down his salary now, we know as soon as the draft lottery results come in how much cap space we have. Now we can make offers the first minute of FA. Without that certainty we are literally juggling KOs offer (which we obviously wanted to sign him because... we DID sign him to an extension?) and getting him to accept when he might have multiple suitors. We would then be in chaos mode without a fixed number to offer other FAs.

We shall see how it plays out, but I certainly think it makes more sense to try and pursue the aforementioned group of FA (Melton, Claxton, Bey etc) than retain Brown and GTJ. The other players are just flat out better fits and better players.

Claxton will get more money from the Nets than us, he's starting for them and he'd be a backup for us, a poor fit with Jakob on the roster as neither are floor spacers, it would only make sense if you think we're trading Jakob. In any case, signing him would almost certainly use the majority of the space and leave us with no other major free agency additions, ultimately it makes far more sense for the Nets to keep him as their only other C on roster at the moment is Day'Ron Sharpe, I doubt we would win a bidding war, if we did I don't see how it helps us.

Melton is not even clearly better than Gary Trent Jr., an undersized SG, I really doubt the front office would prioritize signing him when size is a real issue for this team and I don't believe they've completely given up on their vision 6'9" plan.

Saddiq Bey is not a consistent 3 point shooter, and has horrible defensive numbers for his career, exactly the opposite of what we need (a 3+D wing replacement for OG), I don't see the front office pursuing him and I don't think they'd need cap space even if they did (he currently makes $4.5M).

I assume by J. Smith you mean Jalen Smith, he's RFA so Indiana can match any offer, no guarantee we could get him without an overpay offer to force Indiana's hand, I don't see why we would do this when we already have our starting and backup C position set, again we'd have to trade Jak first to make this make sense. His defensive numbers aren't great but maybe you can handwave that away because he plays for Indiana, hard to know what you'd really be getting there, he's shooting hot from 3 this year but it's a pretty small sample size so there's a risk he reverts to the mean.

Patrick Williams, another guy who is an RFA and Chicago can match any offer, they aren't going to let us poach him I don't know why you even mentioned him.

Again, I don't see Masai clearing cap space just to strike out in free agency like the last two times he went this route. The NBA now is a league where all the good players sign contract extensions, it's rare the players you actually want move between teams in free agency, usually when they do a severe overpay is involved, like when Houston poached Fred from us. The better plan than clearing cap space is keep the players we have and use their short contracts to trade into a better team by sweetening the deal with young players or draft picks, that's how Indiana got Pascal from us after all, that's how I expect Masai to try and get out of this sorry mess he's created.

I just disagree with you on almost every front.

Entitled to your opinion tho

Claxton is a UFA, is 25 and is a good player. We are in asset accumulation mode. He makes Yak more redundant. That's a good thing, gives us valuable trade chips (better than Brown and GTJ).

Melton is better than GTJ (I'm pretty sure every advanced stat would agree) and plays a position of need (bench combo guard).

Bey will make more than the MLE. I like the player despite him not being what you seem to think we need (an OG replacement).

Jalen Smith has a player option which he will turn down (prediction), after which he will then become a UFA.

Patrick Williams at big money ($25+m ) might not be a match from Chicago. Make them think about it. I'd rather overpay for Pat Williams than pay for GTJ and Bruce Brown. You're free to disagree.

Is there a way to flag these types of posts? I'd like to revisit this in the summer and see how many predictions you got wrong (or that I got wrong).

Reminds me of people predicting FVV gets $25m and Dillon Brooks will take pay cut last summer.

[CazOnReal]

What is the best pick we can realistically get from Indy? Would it be 15?

If they lose in the play-in? Technically 4th since the Pacers 24 1st is Top 3 protected but the chances of that are miniscule.

I assume by J. Smith you mean Jalen Smith, he's RFA so Indiana can match any offer, no guarantee we could get him without an overpay offer to force Indiana's hand, I don't see why we would do this when we already have our starting and backup C position set, again we'd have to trade Jak first to make this make sense. His defensive numbers aren't great but maybe you can handwave that away because he plays for Indiana, hard to know what you'd really be getting there, he's shooting hot from 3 this year but it's a pretty small sample size so there's a risk he reverts to the mean.

So this is just flatout wrong; Smith would be a UFA if he declined his player option due to the kerfuffle that racist Robert Sarver caused by declining the team option before trading him to the Pacers. It's why it was such a surprise the Pacers didn't include him in the Siakam trade because they could very well lose him for nothing - and Jalen is due for a payday in this weak free agency class.

[ArthurVandelay]

Brandon Rahbar: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is OUT tomorrow vs the Pacers. Jalen Williams is doubtful. – via Twitter BrandonRahbar


Damn. Cmon Giddey and Chet

[JB7]

I think you’re underestimating the other teams ability and desire to improve while overestimating what a team of Barnes, Poeltl, RJ, and IQ can do without any depth.

They all want to get better than they are, except Washington.

I keep saying what happens with Poeltl will be the tell. We’ll see what happens but there is definitely a path for Toronto to be at the bottom of the league standings next season.

Most teams are not that deep. The Celtics have the best record, and the rotation they will rely on in the playoffs will be 6 deep.

Generally, Barnes, Yak, RJ and IQ have been healthy and players that could be relied on to play. I expect next year to be different. Two fluke injuries this season.

The ability for those teams to improve is limited. Raps already made their moves. Most of those teams are actually primed to go the tanking route than to win, but what is holding them up from tanking is they don’t control their draft picks. Just because they are motivated to win doesn't mean they don’t suck, and have very little room for improvement.

Playoff rotations tighten, no doubt. But we’re not talking about playing in the playoffs. The Raptors are most definitely not a top 6 team and you can’t ride your 6 best players all year and expect them to be healthy come playoffs. Poeltl, Barnes, IQ, and RJ alone aren’t near enough to sniff the playoffs…I’m generally quite a homer but that core isn’t doing it unless Scottie jumps to legit superstar and IQ and RJ are all stars. Even then you need health and a bench.

The Raptors were bad before and after trades, before and after injuries. The Raptors were and are a poorly constructed team that is now, thankfully, in transition.

My whole premise here is the Raptors are one Poeltl trade or injury away from a lost season. To go into the season with that reality is negligence and should be avoided at all costs. Even keeping him and staying healthy they are looking at 9 or 10 at the absolute best. What’s the point of that?

I think where your argument truly fails is around three points:

1) the ability of other teams to improve.

Detroit will go the Houston route this summer and overpay decent players. They aren’t concerned about the playoffs they just want to stop being the embarrassment/joke of the league. They have $70m in cap space that will buy them 2 legit starters.

Charlotte will be decent if Ball and Williams can even play 60 games. They played 22 and 19 this year. They were 7-12 when they played which is not great but it is 30 wins over 82 game season, plus Miller only showed his potential from December onwards without them.

Brooklyn is bad but they still won 30 games. They have large expiring in Simmons who might actually play in a contract year. They won’t actively pursue the bottom 5 because they have no incentive. Usually to be in the bottom 5, you have to try…Detroit obviously an exception this year.

Atlanta has won 36 games with 6 to play. They are 14-11 without Trae and have Trae to use as a significant trade chip. Jalen Johnson getting better. They might not improve but they aren’t getting much worse.

Chicago is a wild card, but even as mid as they are, if they pay DeRozan and roll with what they have they are winning at least 30 games. Plus they might luck into a LaVine trade with similar outcome to Raptors 2013 Gay trade.

2) the level of improvement needed for the Raptors to get to the bottom 4 in the league isn’t they great.

Detroit, Charlotte, etc don’t need to make the playoffs. They just need to get their win totals at or above 25-28 games. I’m not claiming any of those teams are going to be playing in mid April 2025.

3) how easy it would be for the Raptors to bottom 4-5 if they actually entered the season with the mindset of keeping their pick.

The Raptors were 7th worst at the start of March when many around here proclaimed they were still trying to win. Start up the tank January 1 and they are a bottom 4 team.

Out west the only team of worry is Portland. San Antonio going to be much better next year. Utah will do what they’ve done and be mid until February then keep their top 10 protected pick. Houston and Memphis will be 35 wins minimum. Lakers and GSW aren’t tanking. Sacramento, Phoenix, NO fighting for Play in and playoffs.

Trade or an early injury to Poeltl and the Raptors are easily in the mix to be one of the worst next season ahead of Washington who will likely be a league of their own for awful.

Anyways I don’t think I’m changing your mind. You’re definitely not changing mine lol. We’ll see what Masai does this draft and summer but if he just adds some rookies and keeps the team as is, going to be a disappointing season next year. What they do with Poeltl will be the tell about if they are working to keep the 2025 pick assuming it does not convey this year.

Going through the points:
Rosters not being deep
- let's use the best team in the league as an example Celtics. There roster (for the season) is 6 deep: Tatum, Brown, KP, Jrue, White & Horford. After that it is Kornet, Pritchard, Hauser, and recently acquired Tillman. Decent players, but not exactly a murderers row. The reason the Celtics are so good is that core 6. The best team in the West (Nuggets) are the same, 6 deep (Jokic, Murray, Gordon, Porter, KCP & Reggie Jackson - after that you are looking at rookies, Braun, Strawther & PJ Watson). Because of the salary cap, teams are very limited at adding depth. Now I am not arguing that the Raps core 6 is anywhere close to these teams, but they are no different than the Raps in that a significant injury to one of the core 6 hurts all teams during the season. Where the Raps have an advantage here is of their core, most are young, and generally don't have a significant injury history, aside from two fluke injuries (broken hands) this season.

Ability of other teams to improve:
- Detroit is not Houston. Houston's talent and coaching is better. Houston can attract FA talent because of location and taxes. But Houston is still outside looking in on the playoffs. Detroit might improve slightly, but the reality is this season they have been doing their best to win, and have sucked royally. They are just a bad team, poorly constructed, and need to consider moving a young piece, as signing Tobias Harris to a near max deal is not going to solve their problems.
- Charlotte has potential to improve, but they also have the potential to blow up. Who knows what happens with Bridges next year. Can LaMelo stay healthy, especially since he is not playing for a contract? Can they add more pieces?
- The Nets tried to compete this year and ended up with only 30 wins. Most of their current core is age 27-30. They are just waiting for the next superstar to demand a trade, and who knows how long that will be.
- Hawks have been bad for two years with Trae and Dejounte leading the team. One is probably being traded this offseason, and I don't expect them to get great value through that trade (at least not better than what is going out), so there is potential for them to drop more, even though they are incentivized to win because they don't control their draft picks. They are just in a bad situation.
- The worse situation is probably the Bulls though. At some point they are going to be forced to blow up this team. Old players on the downside of their careers who don't have much trade value (LaVine & Vuc). DD could leave in FA. They are going to have to overpay Williams. The one positive is Coby, but he just had his breakout year, and could be in store for a drop back as teams focus on him more next year. And Caruso is on his last year of his deal, so he is either being traded or extended on a huge deal.

Ability for Raps to tank:
- Looking out West. The West is so strong, it is going to be very hard for a team like the Spurs to dramatically increase their win total, even unleashing Wemby. Memphis will be much improved next year, so they are going to eat up more wins. I think Portland, Spurs and Utah could all be the hard tanking teams for no other reason than somebody needs to lose. The question is whether a team currently in the top 10 bottoms out next year, like the Griz did this year.
- in the East, Wiz will be the worst team in the league, followed by the Pistons, and then any of the Hornets, Bulls, Nets or Hawks.

Orlando is currently the 4th seed. They have a core of Banchero, Franz, Suggs, WCJ, Black. Would you consider that core significantly better than Barnes, RJ, IQ, Yak and Dick?

The only way the Raps tank is if they get another significant fluke injury to one of their core 4 (Barnes, Yak, RJ or IQ). But that is no different than any other team.

Actually, probably the most significant piece at play in the Raps performance is Darko. As bad as he has been at points in time the season organizing the team, with his rotations, and the minimum he has got out of them on D, I have to think next season it can't get any worse, or he'll be gone early.

[ArthurVandelay]

Most teams are not that deep. The Celtics have the best record, and the rotation they will rely on in the playoffs will be 6 deep.

Generally, Barnes, Yak, RJ and IQ have been healthy and players that could be relied on to play. I expect next year to be different. Two fluke injuries this season.

The ability for those teams to improve is limited. Raps already made their moves. Most of those teams are actually primed to go the tanking route than to win, but what is holding them up from tanking is they don’t control their draft picks. Just because they are motivated to win doesn't mean they don’t suck, and have very little room for improvement.

Playoff rotations tighten, no doubt. But we’re not talking about playing in the playoffs. The Raptors are most definitely not a top 6 team and you can’t ride your 6 best players all year and expect them to be healthy come playoffs. Poeltl, Barnes, IQ, and RJ alone aren’t near enough to sniff the playoffs…I’m generally quite a homer but that core isn’t doing it unless Scottie jumps to legit superstar and IQ and RJ are all stars. Even then you need health and a bench.

The Raptors were bad before and after trades, before and after injuries. The Raptors were and are a poorly constructed team that is now, thankfully, in transition.

My whole premise here is the Raptors are one Poeltl trade or injury away from a lost season. To go into the season with that reality is negligence and should be avoided at all costs. Even keeping him and staying healthy they are looking at 9 or 10 at the absolute best. What’s the point of that?

I think where your argument truly fails is around three points:

1) the ability of other teams to improve.

Detroit will go the Houston route this summer and overpay decent players. They aren’t concerned about the playoffs they just want to stop being the embarrassment/joke of the league. They have $70m in cap space that will buy them 2 legit starters.

Charlotte will be decent if Ball and Williams can even play 60 games. They played 22 and 19 this year. They were 7-12 when they played which is not great but it is 30 wins over 82 game season, plus Miller only showed his potential from December onwards without them.

Brooklyn is bad but they still won 30 games. They have large expiring in Simmons who might actually play in a contract year. They won’t actively pursue the bottom 5 because they have no incentive. Usually to be in the bottom 5, you have to try…Detroit obviously an exception this year.

Atlanta has won 36 games with 6 to play. They are 14-11 without Trae and have Trae to use as a significant trade chip. Jalen Johnson getting better. They might not improve but they aren’t getting much worse.

Chicago is a wild card, but even as mid as they are, if they pay DeRozan and roll with what they have they are winning at least 30 games. Plus they might luck into a LaVine trade with similar outcome to Raptors 2013 Gay trade.

2) the level of improvement needed for the Raptors to get to the bottom 4 in the league isn’t they great.

Detroit, Charlotte, etc don’t need to make the playoffs. They just need to get their win totals at or above 25-28 games. I’m not claiming any of those teams are going to be playing in mid April 2025.

3) how easy it would be for the Raptors to bottom 4-5 if they actually entered the season with the mindset of keeping their pick.

The Raptors were 7th worst at the start of March when many around here proclaimed they were still trying to win. Start up the tank January 1 and they are a bottom 4 team.

Out west the only team of worry is Portland. San Antonio going to be much better next year. Utah will do what they’ve done and be mid until February then keep their top 10 protected pick. Houston and Memphis will be 35 wins minimum. Lakers and GSW aren’t tanking. Sacramento, Phoenix, NO fighting for Play in and playoffs.

Trade or an early injury to Poeltl and the Raptors are easily in the mix to be one of the worst next season ahead of Washington who will likely be a league of their own for awful.

Anyways I don’t think I’m changing your mind. You’re definitely not changing mine lol. We’ll see what Masai does this draft and summer but if he just adds some rookies and keeps the team as is, going to be a disappointing season next year. What they do with Poeltl will be the tell about if they are working to keep the 2025 pick assuming it does not convey this year.

Going through the points:
Rosters not being deep
- let's use the best team in the league as an example Celtics. There roster (for the season) is 6 deep: Tatum, Brown, KP, Jrue, White & Horford. After that it is Kornet, Pritchard, Hauser, and recently acquired Tillman. Decent players, but not exactly a murderers row. The reason the Celtics are so good is that core 6. The best team in the West (Nuggets) are the same, 6 deep (Jokic, Murray, Gordon, Porter, KCP & Reggie Jackson - after that you are looking at rookies, Braun, Strawther & PJ Watson). Because of the salary cap, teams are very limited at adding depth. Now I am not arguing that the Raps core 6 is anywhere close to these teams, but they are no different than the Raps in that a significant injury to one of the core 6 hurts all teams during the season. Where the Raps have an advantage here is of their core, most are young, and generally don't have a significant injury history, aside from two fluke injuries (broken hands) this season.

Ability of other teams to improve:
- Detroit is not Houston. Houston's talent and coaching is better. Houston can attract FA talent because of location and taxes. But Houston is still outside looking in on the playoffs. Detroit might improve slightly, but the reality is this season they have been doing their best to win, and have sucked royally. They are just a bad team, poorly constructed, and need to consider moving a young piece, as signing Tobias Harris to a near max deal is not going to solve their problems.
- Charlotte has potential to improve, but they also have the potential to blow up. Who knows what happens with Bridges next year. Can LaMelo stay healthy, especially since he is not playing for a contract? Can they add more pieces?
- The Nets tried to compete this year and ended up with only 30 wins. Most of their current core is age 27-30. They are just waiting for the next superstar to demand a trade, and who knows how long that will be.
- Hawks have been bad for two years with Trae and Dejounte leading the team. One is probably being traded this offseason, and I don't expect them to get great value through that trade (at least not better than what is going out), so there is potential for them to drop more, even though they are incentivized to win because they don't control their draft picks. They are just in a bad situation.
- The worse situation is probably the Bulls though. At some point they are going to be forced to blow up this team. Old players on the downside of their careers who don't have much trade value (LaVine & Vuc). DD could leave in FA. They are going to have to overpay Williams. The one positive is Coby, but he just had his breakout year, and could be in store for a drop back as teams focus on him more next year. And Caruso is on his last year of his deal, so he is either being traded or extended on a huge deal.

Ability for Raps to tank:
- Looking out West. The West is so strong, it is going to be very hard for a team like the Spurs to dramatically increase their win total, even unleashing Wemby. Memphis will be much improved next year, so they are going to eat up more wins. I think Portland, Spurs and Utah could all be the hard tanking teams for no other reason than somebody needs to lose. The question is whether a team currently in the top 10 bottoms out next year, like the Griz did this year.
- in the East, Wiz will be the worst team in the league, followed by the Pistons, and then any of the Hornets, Bulls, Nets or Hawks.

Orlando is currently the 4th seed. They have a core of Banchero, Franz, Suggs, WCJ, Black. Would you consider that core significantly better than Barnes, RJ, IQ, Yak and Dick?

The only way the Raps tank is if they get another significant fluke injury to one of their core 4 (Barnes, Yak, RJ or IQ). But that is no different than any other team.

Actually, probably the most significant piece at play in the Raps performance is Darko. As bad as he has been at points in time the season organizing the team, with his rotations, and the minimum he has got out of them on D, I have to think next season it can't get any worse, or he'll be gone early.

I think we’ve both made our points. Bookmark this for next year!

[ciueli]

What is the best pick we can realistically get from Indy? Would it be 15?

If they lose in the play-in? Technically 4th since the Pacers 24 1st is Top 3 protected but the chances of that are miniscule.

I assume by J. Smith you mean Jalen Smith, he's RFA so Indiana can match any offer, no guarantee we could get him without an overpay offer to force Indiana's hand, I don't see why we would do this when we already have our starting and backup C position set, again we'd have to trade Jak first to make this make sense. His defensive numbers aren't great but maybe you can handwave that away because he plays for Indiana, hard to know what you'd really be getting there, he's shooting hot from 3 this year but it's a pretty small sample size so there's a risk he reverts to the mean.

So this is just flatout wrong; Smith would be a UFA if he declined his player option due to the kerfuffle that racist Robert Sarver caused by declining the team option before trading him to the Pacers. It's why it was such a surprise the Pacers didn't include him in the Siakam trade because they could very well lose him for nothing - and Jalen is due for a payday in this weak free agency class.

It's irrelevant because we aren't renouncing all our free agents just to make him an offer better than the MLE when we already have a starting and backup centre on the roster. I don't understand why people here are so convinced signing an 18MPG backup centre from one of the worst defensive teams in the league is the solution to our team being terrible.

[ciueli]

Your logic isn't logical to me.

The only upside you're suggesting here is to allow for a trade in the summer (that seems to be very low down in the priority of reasons to sign KO IMO).

By locking down his salary now, we know as soon as the draft lottery results come in how much cap space we have. Now we can make offers the first minute of FA. Without that certainty we are literally juggling KOs offer (which we obviously wanted to sign him because... we DID sign him to an extension?) and getting him to accept when he might have multiple suitors. We would then be in chaos mode without a fixed number to offer other FAs.

We shall see how it plays out, but I certainly think it makes more sense to try and pursue the aforementioned group of FA (Melton, Claxton, Bey etc) than retain Brown and GTJ. The other players are just flat out better fits and better players.

Claxton will get more money from the Nets than us, he's starting for them and he'd be a backup for us, a poor fit with Jakob on the roster as neither are floor spacers, it would only make sense if you think we're trading Jakob. In any case, signing him would almost certainly use the majority of the space and leave us with no other major free agency additions, ultimately it makes far more sense for the Nets to keep him as their only other C on roster at the moment is Day'Ron Sharpe, I doubt we would win a bidding war, if we did I don't see how it helps us.

Melton is not even clearly better than Gary Trent Jr., an undersized SG, I really doubt the front office would prioritize signing him when size is a real issue for this team and I don't believe they've completely given up on their vision 6'9" plan.

Saddiq Bey is not a consistent 3 point shooter, and has horrible defensive numbers for his career, exactly the opposite of what we need (a 3+D wing replacement for OG), I don't see the front office pursuing him and I don't think they'd need cap space even if they did (he currently makes $4.5M).

I assume by J. Smith you mean Jalen Smith, he's RFA so Indiana can match any offer, no guarantee we could get him without an overpay offer to force Indiana's hand, I don't see why we would do this when we already have our starting and backup C position set, again we'd have to trade Jak first to make this make sense. His defensive numbers aren't great but maybe you can handwave that away because he plays for Indiana, hard to know what you'd really be getting there, he's shooting hot from 3 this year but it's a pretty small sample size so there's a risk he reverts to the mean.

Patrick Williams, another guy who is an RFA and Chicago can match any offer, they aren't going to let us poach him I don't know why you even mentioned him.

Again, I don't see Masai clearing cap space just to strike out in free agency like the last two times he went this route. The NBA now is a league where all the good players sign contract extensions, it's rare the players you actually want move between teams in free agency, usually when they do a severe overpay is involved, like when Houston poached Fred from us. The better plan than clearing cap space is keep the players we have and use their short contracts to trade into a better team by sweetening the deal with young players or draft picks, that's how Indiana got Pascal from us after all, that's how I expect Masai to try and get out of this sorry mess he's created.

I just disagree with you on almost every front.

Entitled to your opinion tho

Claxton is a UFA, is 25 and is a good player. We are in asset accumulation mode. He makes Yak more redundant. That's a good thing, gives us valuable trade chips (better than Brown and GTJ).

Melton is better than GTJ (I'm pretty sure every advanced stat would agree) and plays a position of need (bench combo guard).

Bey will make more than the MLE. I like the player despite him not being what you seem to think we need (an OG replacement).

Jalen Smith has a player option which he will turn down (prediction), after which he will then become a UFA.

Patrick Williams at big money ($25+m ) might not be a match from Chicago. Make them think about it. I'd rather overpay for Pat Williams than pay for GTJ and Bruce Brown. You're free to disagree.

Is there a way to flag these types of posts? I'd like to revisit this in the summer and see how many predictions you got wrong (or that I got wrong).

Reminds me of people predicting FVV gets $25m and Dillon Brooks will take pay cut last summer.

Claxton makes no sense when we have 2 centres on roster and could easily draft a 3rd with one of our two picks (or 3 picks). As I said, the Nets need him more than we do, without him they don't even have a staring centre. And even if the money was roughly even he's not signing here to be a backup when he is worth starter money.

Melton is 6'2" and has a career TS% of 53.4% and coming off a serious injury, the only reason his advanced stats look better than Gary's this year is that the 76ers are a good team and we are one of the worst teams in the league. Swap them and Gary probably looks like the better player. Look at Bruce Brown for an example of a similar player who looked good on Denver and now looks terrible when he plays for us, that's what happens to stats when you play for a team with no talent.

Jalen Smith's I've already addressed, we have two centres now and could easily draft another this year with potentially 3 picks in this draft. No point in operating as an under the cap team just to get him.

Patrick Williams is RFA, again not worth the risk of going all in to get him only to see Chicago match and you are left with nothing. This is the one guy who actually would help our team now and into the future, but the fact that he's RFA and the limited amount of cap space we would have to make a big offer (because of the the Olynyk extension) prevents us from prying him away from Chicago.

Again I will say it, keeping players on short contracts and waiting for a trade to improve is the way Masai likes to operate, he's had incredible blunders the few times he's cleared cap space and tried to improve with free agency signings, I don't seem him going that path of utter randomness in such a critical offseason.

[RoteSchroder]

raps were what 8-14 with a healthy IQ/RJ/Scottie/Poeltl and 6-11 after the pascal trade and before scottie got hurt.

but don't let facts get in the way at projecting a 40 win season next year

People actually think that the Raptors will be the only team that is allowed to improve this offseason while everyone else will stay the same or get worse loll.

Poeltl only played in 14 games after the Siakam trade where they went 6-8. In two of those losses RJ was out. Scottie got injured in a 3rd loss against GSW. Meaning we went 6-5 without injuries.

After the OG trade, Raptors were 3-1 with the new group + Siakam before a Poeltl injury. Bringing us to 9-6.

https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/p/poeltja01/gamelog/2024

Edward Rogers just straight up lying with those stats , I’m assuming cause he wants Masai out of the picture.

[LoveMyRaps]

I can't wait to bend over for the Heat in the last 2 games of the season. They can have their way with us.

[CazOnReal]

Ed Rogers is a racist sac of sh*t, and the meandering mess that the Jays are in makes me incredibly wary of him exercising any further control of the Leafs or Raptors.

[Tor_Raps]

raps were what 8-14 with a healthy IQ/RJ/Scottie/Poeltl and 6-11 after the pascal trade and before scottie got hurt.

but don't let facts get in the way at projecting a 40 win season next year

People actually think that the Raptors will be the only team that is allowed to improve this offseason while everyone else will stay the same or get worse loll.

Poeltl only played in 14 games after the Siakam trade where they went 6-8. In two of those losses RJ was out. Scottie got injured in a 3rd loss against GSW. Meaning we went 6-5 without injuries.

After the OG trade, Raptors were 3-1 with the new group + Siakam before a Poeltl injury. Bringing us to 9-6.

https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/p/poeltja01/gamelog/2024

Edward Rogers just straight up lying with those stats , I’m assuming cause he wants Masai out of the picture.

Part of being a good team is being able to overcome injuries. Every team gets hurt, only the crappy ones cry about it. It just exposes the lack of true depth and lack of roster balance on this team...

[TheRealDeal]

Philly looks really good again. Embiid is cooking.