Value Check: Walker Kessler + #8 for what 2024 pick?

[HornetJail]

It's obviously too early as the draft lottery hasn't happened but I don't want to wait 6 more weeks for this discussion. If the Utah Jazz wanted to move up as high as they could in this draft using only their pick and Walker Kessler, how far can they get?

Assume the team at the pick has a reasonable amount of interest in moving down and a reasonable amount of interest in adding shot blocking at the C spot.

Spoiler:

If you really need a team to trade him to, use Charlotte who currently sits at #3 and has a 66% chance at a top 5 pick at the moment, has a glaring need for a rim protecting C that can play the minutes Mark Williams doesn't, and needs talent at other positions they can get at #8. Where does Charlotte's pick need to fall for Walker Kessler + Utah 1st for Charlotte 1st to become a reality?

[Colbinii]

Unless Utah sees a potential star, they shouldn't trade this for anyone in the draft. They can simply use other assets to move up.

[babyjax13]

My guess is 4 or 5, which might make sense depending on how you see the tiers in this draft. I have my first 8 guys off the board as relatively flat, and I think there are at least 5 that have a chance to go 1.

[BlazersBroncos]

If I am SAS I move #2-4 for Walker and #8 easily. Would add in the high SRP as well.

Wemby and Kessler would be incredible defensively.

Then use #8 and potentially that TOR FRP on a lead guard and another wing.

[Norm2953]

Would Portland take Kessler + 8 for 5 and perhaps 34

[tester551]

Would Portland take Kessler + 8 for 5 and perhaps 34

I would...
but I was high on Kessler as a prospect

[JRoy]

Would Portland take Kessler + 8 for 5 and perhaps 34

I would do it for POR.

[Texas Chuck]

I know I say this a ton, but really this is so player dependent. Utah shouldn't do this ahead of the draft at all. What if their target is gone? They'd have to get to 1 if they did it right after the lottery and I can't imagine the team who gets 1 selling their fans on Kessler instead.

[BlazersBroncos]

Would Portland take Kessler + 8 for 5 and perhaps 34

I would take this and run but I am super high on Kessler.

[Snakebites]

Wrong draft move up IMO.

Keep Kessler and try your luck at 8.

As far as what you could get, it really depends on who’s there and what’s going to be available there. This is a draft where teams will be looking at need- there are no ironclad BPA at pretty much any spot.

[wemby]

Kessler is a good young player but he's limited and his archetype isn't super valuable in today's league, he could very well be worth a trade down for some team, but I'd carefully weigh in the alternatives before doing so. In the Spurs case, I wouldn't move back from a top 3 pick to an 8th pick, but it may be worth it for some team.

If I am SAS I move #2-4 for Walker and #8 easily. Would add in the high SRP as well.

Wemby and Kessler would be incredible defensively.

Then use #8 and potentially that TOR FRP on a lead guard and another wing.

Wemby needs to be paired with someone who can spread the floor and Kessler is the opposite of that. The goal is to maximize Wemby's potential, not maximizing Kessler's potential at Wemby's expense.

[mg]

I'm assuming Ainge might want more value than just moving up in a bad draft that should be pretty flat the first 8 picks. I guess it depends on who the Jazz value in the lottery and where that player falls on draft night.

With that said it's pretty obvious Jazz/Hardy might prefer to play a 5 out type offense so not sure Kessler fits (although I do like him alot as a throw back defensive/shot blocking type center). There are certainly teams (Pels? Magic? Lakers?) that would value a Kessler type 5. Teams that miss out on Claxton in FA could have interest assuming the Jazz actually plan to deal him.

[BarbaGrizz]

I wouldn´t mind Memphis trading #5 for Kessler + #8

[HadAnEffectHere]

Sarr is a near lock to go #1 and Kessler probably will be a better player than Sarr if Kessler can learn how to shoot free throws.

There's not much "cost control savings" either as Sarr will get 4/57 over his rookie contract and an average NBA starting center only gets $20m a year (And Sarr is 3-4 years away from contributing)

The only way the Jazz would trade up for Sarr is if they're convinced Sarr can shoot threes (which I think is extremely unlikely).

That being said, I would expect the Jazz to trade Kessler as they don't like him scheme wise.

[Slim Charless]

Sarr is a near lock to go #1 and Kessler probably will be a better player than Sarr if Kessler can learn how to shoot free throws.

There's not much "cost control savings" either as Sarr will get 4/57 over his rookie contract and an average NBA starting center only gets $20m a year (And Sarr is 3-4 years away from contributing)

The only way the Jazz would trade up for Sarr is if they're convinced Sarr can shoot threes (which I think is extremely unlikely).

That being said, I would expect the Jazz to trade Kessler as they don't like him scheme wise.

Wildy disagree with this. Sarr is a complete unknown NBA wise but his skill set is nice. Very similar to Kessler on defense but more room to grow on offense. Not saying Kessler is a final product there, but he hasn't advanced as much as liked.

To say nothing of his contract being up soon and a new, much more expensive deal being needed to be signed. I also don't think that we're looking at 4 years before Sarr can help a team. That opinion is very off too imo.

I see no universe where someone in need of a defensive C would not take the cheaper and younger Sarr. I'm guessing that OP's deal gets accepted by a team in need of a big but unable to get Sarr.

So my vote is #3.

[HadAnEffectHere]

Sarr is a near lock to go #1 and Kessler probably will be a better player than Sarr if Kessler can learn how to shoot free throws.

There's not much "cost control savings" either as Sarr will get 4/57 over his rookie contract and an average NBA starting center only gets $20m a year (And Sarr is 3-4 years away from contributing)

The only way the Jazz would trade up for Sarr is if they're convinced Sarr can shoot threes (which I think is extremely unlikely).

That being said, I would expect the Jazz to trade Kessler as they don't like him scheme wise.

Wildy disagree with this. Sarr is a complete unknown NBA wise but his skill set is nice. Very similar to Kessler on defense but more room to grow on offense. Not saying Kessler is a final product there, but he hasn't advanced as much as liked.

To say nothing of his contract being up soon and a new, much more expensive deal being needed to be signed.

I see no universe where someone in need of a defensive C would not take the cheaper and younger Sarr. I'm guessing that OP's deal gets accepted by a team in need of a big but unable to get Sarr.

So my vote is #3.

?

Sarr will make a good bit more per year than Kessler for the next two years. Sarr will make ~27m over the next two years while Kessler will make ~7m. Kessler will probably sign a 5/100 to 5/125 deal after that (if he learns how to shoot free throws) while Sarr's last two years will be ~14m and then ~17m before he too signs a 4-5 year deal. Calling Sarr "cheaper" is very odd. Kessler could hypothetically be ready to contribute next year (right now he is not) if he can shoot free throws. Sarr needs to gain 30-40 pounds of muscle before he could start.

Upside-wise, there's slightly more of a chance with Sarr, but it's not a great chance. He shoots a lot of threes... But he's extremely bad at that... Like three straight years of 30% or less with no one guarding him. If he learns how to shoot, he becomes a star player, but the odds of this happening are not great at all. Maybe 2-10%. He has nothing else going on offensively.

If you get the #1 pick this year, expect to end up with a guy who will be really bad for his first 2-3 years and will eventually become Nic Claxton.

[Slim Charless]

Sarr is a near lock to go #1 and Kessler probably will be a better player than Sarr if Kessler can learn how to shoot free throws.

There's not much "cost control savings" either as Sarr will get 4/57 over his rookie contract and an average NBA starting center only gets $20m a year (And Sarr is 3-4 years away from contributing)

The only way the Jazz would trade up for Sarr is if they're convinced Sarr can shoot threes (which I think is extremely unlikely).

That being said, I would expect the Jazz to trade Kessler as they don't like him scheme wise.

Wildy disagree with this. Sarr is a complete unknown NBA wise but his skill set is nice. Very similar to Kessler on defense but more room to grow on offense. Not saying Kessler is a final product there, but he hasn't advanced as much as liked.

To say nothing of his contract being up soon and a new, much more expensive deal being needed to be signed.

I see no universe where someone in need of a defensive C would not take the cheaper and younger Sarr. I'm guessing that OP's deal gets accepted by a team in need of a big but unable to get Sarr.

So my vote is #3.

?

Sarr will make a good bit more per year than Kessler for the next two years. Sarr will make ~27m over the next two years while Kessler will make ~7m. Kessler will probably sign a 5/100 to 5/125 deal after that (if he learns how to shoot free throws) while Sarr's last two years will be ~14m and then ~17m before he too signs a 4-5 year deal. Calling Sarr "cheaper" is very odd. Kessler could hypothetically be ready to contribute next year (right now he is not) if he can shoot free throws. Sarr needs to gain 30-40 pounds of muscle before he could start.

Upside-wise, there's slightly more of a chance with Sarr, but it's not a great chance. He shoots a lot of threes... But he's extremely bad at that... Like three straight years of 30% or less with no one guarding him. If he learns how to shoot, he becomes a star player, but the odds of this happening are not great at all. Maybe 2-10%. He has nothing else going on offensively.

If you get the #1 pick this year, expect to end up with a guy who will be really bad for his first 2-3 years and will eventually become Nic Claxton.

Again, I disagree.

Sarr has significantly more potential- hence why he's in line to be the #1 overall pick. As such he's pricier now....but again Kessler will be signing a bigger deal. Soon. I think you're wrong with your evaluation of his price tag too. Bench guys are signing deals like the one you just mentioned. Kessler will get a fair sight more than 20m per.

Your grade of a 5 year wait to get Nic Claxton feels like a joke...? I would hope you're not serious there. That player doesn't go#1 even in a bad class like this. That's a terrible comparison. Truly.

Lastly, you say Kessler is not ready to contribute now. He's been in the league for 2 years now. On a tanking team..... and they want him gone (under this premise) as such Danny Ainge and Will Hardy who are very smart basketball ppl are bailing. That is very sobering for Kessler's potential and should tell you something.

Again, I see no universe or multiverse where someone takes the older, more expensive option that has less potential and has already been given 2 years of game time over the potential #1 pick.

[HadAnEffectHere]

Sarr has REALLY minimal potential and is REALLY far away. He's just the near lock #1 because this is arguably the worst class in NBA history. Sarr physically can't compete in the NBA at all until he weighs a lot more, he couldn't rebound at all in Australia. Offensively, he has nothing at all if he doesn't learn how to shoot and he has a long history of being unable to shoot.

Clingan is the only guy who could challenge him (because Clingan has a much higher ceiling and is much more NBA ready), but Clingan's weight and injury issues are a massive risk.

I don't see any upside beyond Nic Claxton for Sarr unless he learns how to shoot and we have three years of data of Sarr shooting terribly.

So yes, if you get the #1 pick, expect a very raw player (3-5 years away) who will one day be Nic Claxton.

It's a horrible draft, lol.

[Slim Charless]

Sarr has REALLY minimal potential and is REALLY far away. He's just the near lock #1 because this is arguably the worst class in NBA history. Sarr physically can't compete in the NBA at all until he weighs a lot more, he couldn't rebound at all in Australia. Offensively, he has nothing at all if he doesn't learn how to shoot and he has a long history of being unable to shoot.

Clingan is the only guy who could challenge him (because Clingan has a much higher ceiling and is much more NBA ready), but Clingan's weight and injury issues are a massive risk.

I don't see any upside beyond Nic Claxton for Sarr unless he learns how to shoot and we have three years of data of Sarr shooting terribly.

So yes, if you get the #1 pick, expect a very raw player (3-5 years away) who will one day be Nic Claxton.

It's a horrible draft, lol.

I think Risacher should go #1 personally.

That's still an option too, it's all dependent on who gets the pick. Detroit would likely pass on Sarr as they loaded on bigs. Washington probably takes him if they get it.

[JRoy]

Sarr has REALLY minimal potential and is REALLY far away. He's just the near lock #1 because this is arguably the worst class in NBA history. Sarr physically can't compete in the NBA at all until he weighs a lot more, he couldn't rebound at all in Australia. Offensively, he has nothing at all if he doesn't learn how to shoot and he has a long history of being unable to shoot.

Clingan is the only guy who could challenge him (because Clingan has a much higher ceiling and is much more NBA ready), but Clingan's weight and injury issues are a massive risk.

I don't see any upside beyond Nic Claxton for Sarr unless he learns how to shoot and we have three years of data of Sarr shooting terribly.

So yes, if you get the #1 pick, expect a very raw player (3-5 years away) who will one day be Nic Claxton.

It's a horrible draft, lol.

I don’t know much about Sarr. He seems pretty slight.

However bad the draft is, all I can hope is that my team can find talent worth keeping. There is talent in every draft.