2024 NFL Draft - five picks in the first three rounds (seven in four! [probably])

[Turk Nowitzki]

This is the part where everyone is ready for the draft but we somehow have to sit through three more weeks of predraft content.

[Frank Nova]

Or chop

What do we offer Pittsburgh for 20 in this scenario to trade up for Terrion Arnold? If he falls to 20 I’d rather see a trade up for him than staying at 25 for Verse Chop or Guyton. Not that I’d hate any of those 3, but Arnold seems like the guy if he’s still hanging around that late in the 1st and we have the extra disposable picks to move up 5 slots without compromising the rest of the draft.

Mitchell at #15, Bowers at #18, Arnold at #20...I'd move up for any of those three.

Coop at #17 can easily be thrown in the mix for me as well but yeah, if the 1st CB falls to the mid teens I’d hope Gute is making the necessary moves to get into that 15-20 mix and snag a potential big time player. In that scenario, sitting at 25 and watching the board unfold just seems lazy lol. Maybe no one is willing to trade or wants too much then I guess you just deal but I’d want to know that was the case.

[ReasonablySober]

Someone sell me on Bowers. Looks like a nice prospect to me but I am not seeing some generational guy like others are. Add in the injury history and I'm not sure I'd be comfortable with him in the 1st.

I've been posting about Bowers for over three years now

Elite hands. Will win 50/50 balls because he snatches them out of the air. Great catch radius and will grab balls well over his head or at his feet. Breaks tackles like an elite running back and doesn't go down with first contract. Too fast for linebackers and and too big for defensive backs. Accustomed to playing wide (224 snaps), in the slot (903), and inline (905). He'll straight up maul dudes in the running game. Dominated from the moment he stepped foot on campus against the best competition in college football.

He's going to be one of the NFL's best weapons immediately, and if he goes to a team like Green Bay or San Fran, he'll be an All-Pro early.

[jakecronus8]

Someone sell me on Bowers. Looks like a nice prospect to me but I am not seeing some generational guy like others are. Add in the injury history and I'm not sure I'd be comfortable with him in the 1st.

I've been posting about Bowers for over three years now

Elite hands. Will win 50/50 balls because he snatches them out of the air. Great catch radius and will grab balls well over his head or at his feet. Breaks tackles like an elite running back and doesn't go down with first contract. Too fast for linebackers and and too big for defensive backs. Accustomed to playing wide (224 snaps), in the slot (903), and inline (905). He'll straight up maul dudes in the running game. Dominated from the moment he stepped foot on campus against the best competition in college football.

He's going to be one of the NFL's best weapons immediately, and if he goes to a team like Green Bay or San Fran, he'll be an All-Pro early.

I'll have to take a closer look at him. My first assessment had me preferring someone like Kincaid last year. Then again in today's landscape I like most don't really value the blocking as much as I should and consider most tight ends as just big receivers.

[coolhandluke121]

Someone sell me on Bowers. Looks like a nice prospect to me but I am not seeing some generational guy like others are. Add in the injury history and I'm not sure I'd be comfortable with him in the 1st.

I've been posting about Bowers for over three years now

Elite hands. Will win 50/50 balls because he snatches them out of the air. Great catch radius and will grab balls well over his head or at his feet. Breaks tackles like an elite running back and doesn't go down with first contract. Too fast for linebackers and and too big for defensive backs. Accustomed to playing wide (224 snaps), in the slot (903), and inline (905). He'll straight up maul dudes in the running game. Dominated from the moment he stepped foot on campus against the best competition in college football.

He's going to be one of the NFL's best weapons immediately, and if he goes to a team like Green Bay or San Fran, he'll be an All-Pro early.

I don't disagree with any of this, but there are 3 main issues I have with just how hard you've been pimping him.

1. Elite competition also meant even more elite support from his own team.
2. Precociousness is impressive, but not inherently valuable. A 9.5/10 prospect who started college as a 7/10 is still just as valuable to the NFL team drafting him as a 9.5 who started that high and just stayed there the whole time he was in college.
3. Elite college competition is still college competition, a pale shade of NFL competition. He will still be excellent IMO, but I don't think his dominance will fully translate. He won't have the same size advantage on DBs, nor the same speed advantage on LBs. This is related to precociousness, because other guys who have developed a little slower than him are still closing that gap even as they arrive in the NFL.

I think he's being projected in the late teens for good reason, after a few months of being considered a clear top-10 guy. The hype of his college play is being seen from a different perspective, as it should be once the luster of college glory wears off and the reality of the NFL gauntlet sets in. Positional reality is also setting in.

[Ron Swanson]

Don't know what's not to love about Bowers when you watch the tape. Dude is an elite YAC guy as a 6'4, 240 lb TE/H-back hybrid. It's really just the injury stuff that's gonna keep him out of the Top-10. I mean, just look at the vertical explosion, powering through contact, and lateral agility on some of these quick hitters and bubble screens:

Watch on YouTube

He's the (*white guy comp alert*) Christian McCaffrey of TE's.

[ReasonablySober]

Someone sell me on Bowers. Looks like a nice prospect to me but I am not seeing some generational guy like others are. Add in the injury history and I'm not sure I'd be comfortable with him in the 1st.

I've been posting about Bowers for over three years now

Elite hands. Will win 50/50 balls because he snatches them out of the air. Great catch radius and will grab balls well over his head or at his feet. Breaks tackles like an elite running back and doesn't go down with first contract. Too fast for linebackers and and too big for defensive backs. Accustomed to playing wide (224 snaps), in the slot (903), and inline (905). He'll straight up maul dudes in the running game. Dominated from the moment he stepped foot on campus against the best competition in college football.

He's going to be one of the NFL's best weapons immediately, and if he goes to a team like Green Bay or San Fran, he'll be an All-Pro early.

I don't disagree with any of this, but there are 3 main issues I have with just how hard you've been pimping him.

1. Elite competition also meant even more elite support from his own team.
2. Precociousness is impressive, but not inherently valuable. A 9.5/10 prospect who started college as a 7/10 is still just as valuable to the NFL team drafting him as a 9.5 who started that high and just stayed there the whole time he was in college.
3. Elite college competition is still college competition, a pale shade of NFL competition. He will still be excellent IMO, but I don't think his dominance will fully translate. He won't have the same size advantage on DBs, nor the same speed advantage on LBs. This is related to precociousness, because other guys who have developed a little slower than him are still closing that gap even as they arrive in the NFL.

I think he's being projected in the late teens for good reason, after a few months of being considered a clear top-10 guy. The hype of his college play is being seen from a different perspective, as it should be once the luster of college glory wears off and the reality of the NFL gauntlet sets in. Positional reality is also setting in.

So to address those one by one:

So no arguments with 1 and 2. Even if Stetson Bennett isn't an NFL caliber QB, Monken was also a very good offensive coordinator for his first two seasons on campus. As for his grade as a prospect, during his freshman year I said it was ridiculous that he had to stay in school for three more years. The only other guy I remember saying that about was Adrian Peterson, and I think like Bowers there was some prospect fatigue with him by the time he came out.

#3 I'll push back some. He's been going up against NFL factories from the start. The teams he's been dominating are the ones that generate all the NFL talent. The transition to the NFL will be as seamless as could be for a college prospect.

As for his position in mock drafts, that's less to do with his actual prospect ranking than it does the position he plays. He's still considered one of the best prospects in this draft.

PFF: 7th
Kiper: 6th
Jeremiah: 7th
NFL.com: 8th
Miller (ESPN): 10th
Reid (ESPN: 9th
The Draft Network: 5th

So I think if he falls into the teens it's because he's a tight end.

[coolhandluke121]

I've been posting about Bowers for over three years now

Elite hands. Will win 50/50 balls because he snatches them out of the air. Great catch radius and will grab balls well over his head or at his feet. Breaks tackles like an elite running back and doesn't go down with first contract. Too fast for linebackers and and too big for defensive backs. Accustomed to playing wide (224 snaps), in the slot (903), and inline (905). He'll straight up maul dudes in the running game. Dominated from the moment he stepped foot on campus against the best competition in college football.

He's going to be one of the NFL's best weapons immediately, and if he goes to a team like Green Bay or San Fran, he'll be an All-Pro early.

I don't disagree with any of this, but there are 3 main issues I have with just how hard you've been pimping him.

1. Elite competition also meant even more elite support from his own team.
2. Precociousness is impressive, but not inherently valuable. A 9.5/10 prospect who started college as a 7/10 is still just as valuable to the NFL team drafting him as a 9.5 who started that high and just stayed there the whole time he was in college.
3. Elite college competition is still college competition, a pale shade of NFL competition. He will still be excellent IMO, but I don't think his dominance will fully translate. He won't have the same size advantage on DBs, nor the same speed advantage on LBs. This is related to precociousness, because other guys who have developed a little slower than him are still closing that gap even as they arrive in the NFL.

I think he's being projected in the late teens for good reason, after a few months of being considered a clear top-10 guy. The hype of his college play is being seen from a different perspective, as it should be once the luster of college glory wears off and the reality of the NFL gauntlet sets in. Positional reality is also setting in.

So to address those one by one:

So no arguments with 1 and 2. Even if Stetson Bennett isn't an NFL caliber QB, Monken was also a very good offensive coordinator for his first two seasons on campus. As for his grade as a prospect, during his freshman year I said it was ridiculous that he had to stay in school for three more years. The only other guy I remember saying that about was Adrian Peterson, and I think like Bowers there was some prospect fatigue with him by the time he came out.

#3 I'll push back some. He's been going up against NFL factories from the start. The teams he's been dominating are the ones that generate all the NFL talent. The transition to the NFL will be as seamless as could be for a college prospect.

As for his position in mock drafts, that's less to do with his actual prospect ranking than it does the position he plays. He's still considered one of the best prospects in this draft.

PFF: 7th
Kiper: 6th
Jeremiah: 7th
NFL.com: 8th
Miller (ESPN): 10th
Reid (ESPN: 9th
The Draft Network: 5th

So I think if he falls into the teens it's because he's a tight end.

It is definitely because he's a TE, and maybe a little because of the injuries. I mean, you could argue that he's the best prospect in the draft in terms of standard deviations above the mean at his position. But relative standard deviations aren't the same as net value added, which depends a lot on position. It would be fun as hell to trade up and get him, and honestly that's part of the point of being a fan, but I'm not at all convinced that it would be wise.

ETA: Sorry, forgot about MHJ, who I would definitely say is the top prospect in that sense.

[LUKE23]

Bucky Irving got a 2.28 RAS? What in the actual ****.

[ReasonablySober]

Bucky Irving got a 2.28 RAS? What in the actual ****.

Read on Twitter

?lang=en

I never thought he looked fast, but the explosion numbers are inexplicable.

[Treebeard]

CBS Sports cranks out mocks on a nearly daily basis, but this one had a fun premise: The public infatuation with a QB run at the top is NOT matched by team GMs. Basically, it upends many of the mocks commonly seen.
https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/news/2024-nfl-mock-draft-qb-class-overhyped-how-top-of-round-1-could-unfold-if-teams-prioritize-other-positions/

[ReasonablySober]

CBS Sports cranks out mocks on a nearly daily basis, but this one had a fun premise: The public infatuation with a QB run at the top is NOT matched by team GMs. Basically, it upends many of the mocks commonly seen.
https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/news/2024-nfl-mock-draft-qb-class-overhyped-how-top-of-round-1-could-unfold-if-teams-prioritize-other-positions/

Bears coming away with Caleb and Nabers (or Oduze or Bowers) is such a nightmare. I'm hoping like hell they go OT or pass rusher at #9.

In that mock it'd be hard to see the Packers passing on Fautanu.

[jakecronus8]

I still can't see tackle unless they view Barton as a tackle. Of all the tackles being mocked to GB, none of them really match the profile with what they like.

[Karmaloop]

Bucky Irving got a 2.28 RAS? What in the actual ****.

A small RB that isn't explosive.

[Karmaloop]

Bears coming away with Caleb and Nabers (or Oduze or Bowers) is such a nightmare. I'm hoping like hell they go OT or pass rusher at #9.

In that mock it'd be hard to see the Packers passing on Fautanu.

At this point, I'd be very surprised if they didn't trade down from 9. They don't pick again until 75, and they only have 4 picks all together including the #1 and #9. Feels like they'll move down into that 14-18 range.

[VooDoo7]

Someone sell me on Bowers. Looks like a nice prospect to me but I am not seeing some generational guy like others are.

Maybe it's because he doesn't have that impressive stature like some of the other elite TEs and looks more like an H-back? He's only 6'3 (not 6'4) whereas guys like Kelce (and even our guys, Musgrave and Kraft) are 6'5-6'6. Either way, I think he's gonna be pretty damn good.

[Profound23]

Id go Caleb with Bowers, makes the most sense imo.

Unless you can trade up for MHJ

[stillgotgame]

Someone sell me on Bowers. Looks like a nice prospect to me but I am not seeing some generational guy like others are.

Maybe it's because he doesn't have that impressive stature like some of the other elite TEs and looks more like an H-back? He's only 6'3 (not 6'4) whereas guys like Kelce (and even our guys, Musgrave and Kraft) are 6'5-6'6. Either way, I think he's gonna be pretty damn good.

8 of the last 10 Super Bowl winners have had a dominant, 6'5" 250 lbs or bigger tight end - Gronk, Kelce and Zach Ertz.

Fast receiving tight ends sound like a cool idea, but have more fantasy football value than winning games. That said, Bowers is pretty explosive.

[Matches Malone]

Top 30 visit for Gallagher. Possible UDFA option.

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[Matches Malone]

This might be my favorite DB outside of the main guys that are talked about. Experience in press-man, not afraid to get physical and has played against some of the best WR's in the country this year. Pretty good athletic profile as well (RAS at 8.21).

Watch on YouTube