Kitchen Sink Blockbuster: Mitchell, Trae, and More

[Wolveswin]

Nets should not spend assets for Mitchell if they think they can get him for nothing in 2025.

That is a plan. The plan of hope. Plenty of threads discussing why hope can fail for Nets. Including Cavs worried they will lose Mitchell for nothing so trade him this offseason. To a team that can retain him.

If you aren't good enough to lure him in free agency you also aren't going to be good enough to keep him.

Huh?

[Wolveswin]

Agreed, that might be the most assets traded for a player, ever.

Maybe you will answer.

Let’s break down the Trae part:

Trae + Hunter

FOR

Vassell
#3 for #18 swap (moving up 15 in weak draft)
25/27 Hawks 1st returned
26 Hawks Swap returned
25 Raps 1st
Champagnie

So that is 3x Future 1sts + 1x swap plus 3 for 18 swap in current draft. Seems very, very close to Mitchell comp to Cavs. Does Trae not get Mitchell value?

Trae + Murray + Hunter + Capela + 24 Kings 1st
FOR
Cam Thomas + Champagnie + Simmons (expiring) + Graham (expiring) + 40+M Cap Savings
+#3 Overall (24 Spurs 1st)
+25 Hawks 1st (returned via Spurs)
+25 Suns 1st (via Nets) *could add best of swap/option with Spurs
+27 Suns 1st (via Nets)
+27 Hawks 1st (returned via Spurs)
+29 Suns 1st (via Nets)
+29 Mavs 1st (via Nets)

Big trades are hard to value, but here's my attempt:

2024 SAC 1st = Cam Thomas
Simmons = Hunter
Capela = savings
2 1sts + savings = Murray (let's call it 25 ATL 1st + 29 DAL 1st?)

Young =
#3
25 Suns 1st
26 swap extinguished
27 Suns 1st
27 Hawks 1st
29 Suns 1st

The 25 Suns 1st is the one least likely to be in the lottery, otherwise you have the third pick + 2 definite lottery picks (ATL 26,27), + 2 other picks with, IMO, a good chance to be in the lottery depending on how Durant and Beal age (27, 29 PHX 1st). I think that's quite a bit more than both Mitchell and Gobert went for. The only real comp, IMO, is the Paul George trade.

I am looking at Spurs what they need to spend to acquire Trae. IMO it’s:

Vassell = Markkanen
Champagnie = Sexton
#3 for #18 Swap (in this draft) = #14 Agbaji + 1x Cavs Swap
25/27 Hawks + 25 Raps 1st = 3x Cavs 1sts
26 Hawks Swap = 1x Cavs Swap

Is that not the exact same comp as Mitchell?

[Wolveswin]

Trae has nowhere near this value currently.

That was my 1st thought as well. That's enormous.

I am looking at Spurs what they need to spend to acquire Trae. IMO it’s:

Vassell = Markkanen
Champagnie = Sexton
#3 for #18 Swap (in this draft) = #14 Agbaji + 1x Cavs Swap
25/27 Hawks + 25 Raps 1st = 3x Cavs 1sts
26 Hawks Swap = 1x Cavs Swap

Is that not the exact same comp as Mitchell?

[Wolveswin]

Vassell has not shown enough to be assigned the value he's getting here.

He is overvalued in general, shouldn't be a cornerstone in a Mitchell trade, but this is still a significant overpay for Trae.

Do you think Vassell + DFS + 2x 1sts isn’t enough for expiring Mitchell?

As for Hawks, they get for Trae + Hunter + #18
Cam Thomas
Simmons
#3 for #18 Swap 2024 draft
25/27 Hawks 1st
26 Hawks Swap
29 Mavs 1st

I think that is fair for Trae.

As for Hawks, they get for Murray + Capela:
Champagnie
Graham
25/27/29 Suns 1st

I think that is fair, 3x 1sts for Murray.

[jbk1234]

Vassell has not shown enough to be assigned the value he's getting here.

He is overvalued in general, shouldn't be a cornerstone in a Mitchell trade, but this is still a significant overpay for Trae.

I was speaking only as to the Mitchell part.

[babyjax13]

Maybe you will answer.

Let’s break down the Trae part:

Trae + Hunter

FOR

Vassell
#3 for #18 swap (moving up 15 in weak draft)
25/27 Hawks 1st returned
26 Hawks Swap returned
25 Raps 1st
Champagnie

So that is 3x Future 1sts + 1x swap plus 3 for 18 swap in current draft. Seems very, very close to Mitchell comp to Cavs. Does Trae not get Mitchell value?

Trae + Murray + Hunter + Capela + 24 Kings 1st
FOR
Cam Thomas + Champagnie + Simmons (expiring) + Graham (expiring) + 40+M Cap Savings
+#3 Overall (24 Spurs 1st)
+25 Hawks 1st (returned via Spurs)
+25 Suns 1st (via Nets) *could add best of swap/option with Spurs
+27 Suns 1st (via Nets)
+27 Hawks 1st (returned via Spurs)
+29 Suns 1st (via Nets)
+29 Mavs 1st (via Nets)

Big trades are hard to value, but here's my attempt:

2024 SAC 1st = Cam Thomas
Simmons = Hunter
Capela = savings
2 1sts + savings = Murray (let's call it 25 ATL 1st + 29 DAL 1st?)

Young =
#3
25 Suns 1st
26 swap extinguished
27 Suns 1st
27 Hawks 1st
29 Suns 1st

The 25 Suns 1st is the one least likely to be in the lottery, otherwise you have the third pick + 2 definite lottery picks (ATL 26,27), + 2 other picks with, IMO, a good chance to be in the lottery depending on how Durant and Beal age (27, 29 PHX 1st). I think that's quite a bit more than both Mitchell and Gobert went for. The only real comp, IMO, is the Paul George trade.

I am looking at Spurs what they need to spend to acquire Trae. IMO it’s:

Vassell = Markkanen
Champagnie = Sexton
#3 for #18 Swap (in this draft) = #14 Agbaji + 1x Cavs Swap
25/27 Hawks + 25 Raps 1st = 3x Cavs 1sts
26 Hawks Swap = 1x Cavs Swap

Is that not the exact same comp as Mitchell?

By volume yes, but not by quality (speaking of the picks).

[Wolveswin]

Trae + Murray + Hunter + Capela + 24 Kings 1st
FOR
Cam Thomas + Champagnie + Simmons (expiring) + Graham (expiring) + 40+M Cap Savings
+#3 Overall (24 Spurs 1st)
+25 Hawks 1st (returned via Spurs)
+25 Suns 1st (via Nets) *could add best of swap/option with Spurs
+27 Suns 1st (via Nets)
+27 Hawks 1st (returned via Spurs)
+29 Suns 1st (via Nets)
+29 Mavs 1st (via Nets)

Big trades are hard to value, but here's my attempt:

2024 SAC 1st = Cam Thomas
Simmons = Hunter
Capela = savings
2 1sts + savings = Murray (let's call it 25 ATL 1st + 29 DAL 1st?)

Young =
#3
25 Suns 1st
26 swap extinguished
27 Suns 1st
27 Hawks 1st
29 Suns 1st

The 25 Suns 1st is the one least likely to be in the lottery, otherwise you have the third pick + 2 definite lottery picks (ATL 26,27), + 2 other picks with, IMO, a good chance to be in the lottery depending on how Durant and Beal age (27, 29 PHX 1st). I think that's quite a bit more than both Mitchell and Gobert went for. The only real comp, IMO, is the Paul George trade.

I am looking at Spurs what they need to spend to acquire Trae. IMO it’s:

Vassell = Markkanen
Champagnie = Sexton
#3 for #18 Swap (in this draft) = #14 Agbaji + 1x Cavs Swap
25/27 Hawks + 25 Raps 1st = 3x Cavs 1sts
26 Hawks Swap = 1x Cavs Swap

Is that not the exact same comp as Mitchell?

By volume yes, but not by quality (speaking of the picks).

Well if we are discussing value quality of same volume of picks - we are VERY close on real value for Trae. Not sure how some (not saying you) would say OP value of Trae “is way off.”

[Threezus]

Where as i agree thats pretty close to correct value i think after it was broken down amazingly well by babyjax and wolveswin, I can almost 100% guarantee that both of those PG's wouldn't be in a trade. Either Trae or Murray will be apart of the future here. I personally would choose Murray but i can see why others choose trae. I just think it's much easier to build a complete team around murray with the pieces we already have. Plus the large amount of assets coming back from trae gives us a much better chance to get another star back via trade to replace Trae. Where as i don't see that same path with murray with his trade value. Plus Murray allows us to be a much better defensive team and save alot of cap space for another star.

[toooskies]

That is a plan. The plan of hope. Plenty of threads discussing why hope can fail for Nets. Including Cavs worried they will lose Mitchell for nothing so trade him this offseason. To a team that can retain him.

If you aren't good enough to lure him in free agency you also aren't going to be good enough to keep him.

Huh?

Donovan Mitchell is a very competitive person. He takes the game seriously. He wants to win. If Brooklyn isn't going to be a winning situation I don't think he's much more likely to stay there than he is likely to stay in Cleveland.

If the Nets trade for him now, they honestly don't have the pieces to be a better team than the Cleveland roster, with fewer options to improve. So he's going to look at Miami and every other team in the summer of 2025.

Their best option is to get their star #2 in a trade now, then make Mitchell star #3 in the summer of 2025.

[Chinook]

Trae has nowhere near this value currently.

That was my 1st thought as well. That's enormous.

Let’s break down the Trae part:

Trae + Hunter

FOR

Vassell
#3 for #18 swap (moving up 15 in weak draft)
25/27 Hawks 1st returned
26 Hawks Swap returned
25 Raps 1st
Champagnie

So that is 3x Future 1sts + 1x swap plus 3 for 18 swap in current draft. Seems very, very close to Mitchell comp to Cavs. Does Trae not get Mitchell value?

Hunter isn't providing value to the Spurs here -- getting off his contract is adding value to the Hawks. Taking him into cap space would be a kindness. Trading him for Vassell would require more than the Hawks could offer.

If 3 doesn't really have more value than 18, then it shouldn't be in this deal. The Spurs obviously thought the high pick was worth tanking for, so they aren't going to just shrug and dropping half a round.

So this is four unprotected firsts and a downgrade from Vassell to Hunter for Young and a mid first. No. The Spurs should absolutely take their pick this year off the table and not even visit a Hawks trade until the summer. Then Vassell is only in the deal if he provides a large chunk of the ballast and value, not as a throw-in. The Spurs don't have to go so all-in for a guy who would still require a lot of moves and growth to take advantage of.

They're far better off waiting another year if the opportunity isn't right. There are plenty of other players who would frankly help more for where the team is, and Young's market is going to mature more in 2025 when he's an expiring. The Hawks feeling the urgency to make a trade doesn't mean the Spurs or any other team has to bend over to accommodate them.

[Chinook]

I am looking at Spurs what they need to spend to acquire Trae. IMO it’s:

1- Vassell = Markkanen
2- Champagnie = Sexton
3- #3 for #18 Swap (in this draft) = #14 Agbaji + 1x Cavs Swap
4- 25/27 Hawks + 25 Raps 1st = 3x Cavs 1sts
5 - 26 Hawks Swap = 1x Cavs Swap

Is that not the exact same comp as Mitchell?

(Numbers added for navigation purposes)

1- Vassell doesn't equal Markkanen. He's worth a good deal less now but way more before. He's much closer for the Spurs to Garland for the Cavs. Mark would be closer to Johnson or Sochan. If you don't think Vassell is at Garland level, then you should understand why the Spurs shouldn't be compared the Cleveland. The Cavs thought they have two young stars and a couple of great role-players and were looking for the over-the-top piece. The Spurs have an elite prospect on his way to superstardom and a lot of question marks. They aren't ready.

2- I don't think there's an analog Sexton. If we're seriously talking about Champ that way, then wow, Colin had no value whatsoever. Champ is holding down the fort and actually playing well again, but he's more buoyant ballast and positive value in my mind. The Spurs would like to keep him as a supercheap shooter with size and some defensive potential, but ideally he's not in the rotation next year.

3 - No it doesn't. 18 plus 14 would be like 10. 10, 14 and 18 would be like 6. All four of those together would be 3. It's a massive difference. No amount of saying "It's a bad draft" is going to change that. Teams clearly tanked to be part of this draft. It's one thing if the Toronto pick conveys and the Spurs drop from seven to 18, as they might not have much preference tied to their second pick. But they chose to go the slow route, so we should believe they have this draft scouted and know who they want.

4- I don't think that's even a little true. The Spurs have natural firsts they could trade to actually be analogs, but instead they're trading picks from projected tanking teams, including in a highly anticipated draft. This feels like an obvious sleight of hand. In this deal you have ATL taking a couple of big steps back, so their picks will be far better than Cleveland is expected to give up.

5- Same as the picks.

Players are not objects, and trades are not stock exchanges. It doesn't matter what the Cavs paid for Mitchel. The situations are different, the climate is different and the players involved are different. I'm not one of those people who think the Spurs can strongarm the Hawks into giving them Young for whatever because they have the ATL picks. But I also don't think ATL or Utah is going to get nearly as much as you consistently suggest they will. I know I wouldn't want the Spurs to even pick up the phone in a case like this. They need to avoid the mistakes teams keep making with young stars, including the situation with Cleveland. But I am not the Spurs and don't control what they do. We'll see.

[Wolveswin]

If you aren't good enough to lure him in free agency you also aren't going to be good enough to keep him.

Huh?

Donovan Mitchell is a very competitive person. He takes the game seriously. He wants to win. If Brooklyn isn't going to be a winning situation I don't think he's much more likely to stay there than he is likely to stay in Cleveland.

If the Nets trade for him now, they honestly don't have the pieces to be a better team than the Cleveland roster, with fewer options to improve. So he's going to look at Miami and every other team in the summer of 2025.

Their best option is to get their star #2 in a trade now, then make Mitchell star #3 in the summer of 2025.

That might be ideal for Nets but not ideal for Mitchell. Meaning, he could be traded by then and Nets won’t even be in discussion summer of 2025.

[Bornstellar]

This is a big no from SA's perspective and a massive overpay for Trae Young. Hunter is an afterthought and so is the Cavs filler so basically 4 lottery picks and a swap PLUS Vassell for Young is just not happening. Young's value isn't particularly high right now imo. Best you're getting is your picks/swap returned and MAYBE one other first rounder

[toooskies]

Huh?

Donovan Mitchell is a very competitive person. He takes the game seriously. He wants to win. If Brooklyn isn't going to be a winning situation I don't think he's much more likely to stay there than he is likely to stay in Cleveland.

If the Nets trade for him now, they honestly don't have the pieces to be a better team than the Cleveland roster, with fewer options to improve. So he's going to look at Miami and every other team in the summer of 2025.

Their best option is to get their star #2 in a trade now, then make Mitchell star #3 in the summer of 2025.

That might be ideal for Nets but not ideal for Mitchell. Meaning, he could be traded by then and Nets won’t even be in discussion summer of 2025.

Why wouldn't they be? Mitchell getting traded doesn't guarantee he extends with that team. He can't even actually do it for six months after the trade.

And the failure case of Mitchell not coming in free agency is still a lot better than trading for him and losing him in free agency because your team isn't good enough.

[Wolveswin]

Donovan Mitchell is a very competitive person. He takes the game seriously. He wants to win. If Brooklyn isn't going to be a winning situation I don't think he's much more likely to stay there than he is likely to stay in Cleveland.

If the Nets trade for him now, they honestly don't have the pieces to be a better team than the Cleveland roster, with fewer options to improve. So he's going to look at Miami and every other team in the summer of 2025.

Their best option is to get their star #2 in a trade now, then make Mitchell star #3 in the summer of 2025.

That might be ideal for Nets but not ideal for Mitchell. Meaning, he could be traded by then and Nets won’t even be in discussion summer of 2025.

Why wouldn't they be? Mitchell getting traded doesn't guarantee he extends with that team. He can't even actually do it for six months after the trade.

And the failure case of Mitchell not coming in free agency is still a lot better than trading for him and losing him in free agency because your team isn't good enough.

Any team trading for Mitchell (Lakers, Heat, Knicks, etc) will feel very strong retaining him. Or they won’t muster enough value for Cavs to say yes. Nets would have probably the best chance of trading for and retaining.

[toooskies]

That might be ideal for Nets but not ideal for Mitchell. Meaning, he could be traded by then and Nets won’t even be in discussion summer of 2025.

Why wouldn't they be? Mitchell getting traded doesn't guarantee he extends with that team. He can't even actually do it for six months after the trade.

And the failure case of Mitchell not coming in free agency is still a lot better than trading for him and losing him in free agency because your team isn't good enough.

Any team trading for Mitchell (Lakers, Heat, Knicks, etc) will feel very strong retaining him. Or they won’t muster enough value for Cavs to say yes. Nets would have probably the best chance of trading for and retaining.

I think the situation where those teams don't offer enough value is more likely than not. Teams like the Lakers or Heat might look much worse if AD, LeBron, or Butler suddenly look old/injured, or LeBron retires or leaves to play with Bronny.