2023-2024 Regular Season Game 79: Orlando Magic (46-32) at Houston Rockets (38-40) - 8pm

[SOUL]

Paolo Banchero has a true shooting percentage of 50.6 in his last 10 games

People have been losing their minds over Franz and his TS% is still .575 for the season.

They've been losing it at the three pointers, I feel like you keep conflating what people are having issues with in terms of Franz and his shooting. Ignore the wackos that want him traded because they're stupid. He's clearly the most reliable offensive option we have, just not the most versatile in his current form.

His shot diet and TS%, as long as he continues to be a good finisher and FT shooter, will always be fine.. but if you stone-wall him from getting inside and he's pump faking open threes and he refuses to shoot any other shot but two kinds of shots, you cannot tell me that he's in great form heading into the playoffs.

Paolo's issue is straight up finishing ability and playing soft, as well as shot quality in the opposite way where he does iso dancing long twos or step back threes that make no sense, especially when he also pump-fakes open mid-range shots for worse looks. It's like there's no rhyme or reason to when he wants to pick and choose these spots.

I honestly feel like Suggs is the one closest to having the most practical three-level ability if he was more aggressive.

[ORLMagicGirl15]

This team loses every must win game. How am I supposed to trust this team to win a game in playoffs???

if we're in the play-in tournament, Id expect us to lose. Heat and Hawks have our number.

Like everybody is saying how good of a season this is, but it can drop to be a disaster very quickly.

Yeah, I've noticed that too. But honestly, I think I keep forgetting that this team is learning how to win in the NBA level. They are doing this without a true point guard and bad shooting. So can you imagine what this team will look like if we actually got shooters and a great point guard?

[Knightro]

I didn't know that. you sure? Remember we are talking about all stars, not just obvious stars that are only 21.

It doesn't really matter how old Paolo is though. He's getting star player usage and producing at a level that is far below star player capability or expectation.

There are 20 NBA players with at least a 29.6 USG%, including Paolo.

He's 18th out of the 20 in TS%. Ahead of only Cade Cunningham and Kyle Kuzma who each have free reign on 13 and 15 win teams respectively.

I'd argue it does matter in terms of grading his performance as a #1 option

That isn't the point though.

Regardless of his age, what he's doing isn't good enough and his year 1 to year 2 jump frankly hasn't been good enough either.

He was .529 TS% as a rookie and is just .548 in year 2.

I just don't like suggesting "oh well it's a sophomore slump" when most other star players at the same age/experience level made much more significant gains from year 1 to year 2.

Other Stars Year 1 to Year 2.
Durant .519 to .577
Giannis .518 to .552
Luka .545 to .585
Edwards .523 to .560
Davis .559 to .582
LeBron .488 to .554
Curry .568 to .595
Leonard .573 to .592
Brown .539 to .562
Zion .616 to .649

The only current high end NBA scorers that truly had sophomore slumps from an efficiency standpoint were Tatum and Booker.

[basketballRob]

Pat Beverly on Paolo and Franz.

https://youtube.com/shorts/OHBhNDKpuwo?feature=shared

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[Knightro]

Paolo Banchero has a true shooting percentage of 50.6 in his last 10 games

People have been losing their minds over Franz and his TS% is still .575 for the season.

They've been losing it at the three pointers, I feel like you keep conflating what people are having issues with in terms of Franz and his shooting. Ignore the wackos that want him traded because they're stupid. He's clearly the most reliable offensive option we have, just not the most versatile in his current form.

His shot diet and TS%, as long as he continues to be a good finisher and FT shooter, will always be fine.. but if you stone-wall him from getting inside and he's pump faking open threes and he refuses to shoot any other shot but two kinds of shots, you cannot tell me that he's in great form heading into the playoffs.

Paolo's issue is straight up finishing ability and playing soft, as well as shot quality in the opposite way where he does iso dancing long twos or step back threes that make no sense, especially when he also pump-fakes open mid-range shots for worse looks. It's like there's no rhyme or reason to when he wants to pick and choose these spots.

I honestly feel like Suggs is the one closest to having the most practical three-level ability if he was more aggressive.

Oh no SOUL, I'm not suggesting Franz's 3PT woes aren't a significant problem. Math is math. 3s are worth more than 2s.

Ultimately it doesn't matter how good Franz is at 2s if his 3s aren't good unless he becomes some sort of Zion or Giannis level 2PT shooter or DeRozan/SGA foul drawing savant.

It's the same problem Fultz had - although not nearly as severe as Fultz because Franz defends, draws FTs and still draws a closeout because he's still attempting 3s.

I'm simply suggesting that everyone is just going nuts over the fact that Franz isn't making threes, when he clearly still contributes at a very high level in other places, whereas Paolo's pretty much just been bad all over the floor for a while now.

[Knightro]

This one and the Hornets loss are going to sting on the back end of all this.

Oh the Hornets loss is SIGNIFICANTLY worse than tonight's loss.

The Rockets are a very solid 27-14 at home this year. And the Magic didn't have Franz.

The Hornets aren't even going to win 20 games on the season. They're very likely going to lose 9 of their final 10 games to close with the lone victory being over the Magic.

[SOUL]

I'm simply suggesting that everyone is just going nuts over the fact that Franz isn't making threes, when he clearly still contributes at a very high level in other places, whereas Paolo's pretty much just been bad all over the floor for a while now.

This is true. And it's a simple reason for a lot of our offensive issues. A lot of good-great teams just have more reliable offensive 1st/2nd options. They're not worried about or debating third stringers coming in for 9-13 minutes and adding some points, because they know that Brunson or Giannis or Siakam or Bam or Donovan Mitchell will have to play really well for their team to have any success and the other stuff is just fun stuff to debate.

I'm okay with it because a lot of it is youth related, even if people think that's silly. But there's a reason why Jordan, LeBron, Jokic, Giannis etc are winning a lot/have championship aspirations in their 25-29 range rather than 21-24. You just learn more moves, get stronger, have more confidence, etc.

I also think it's good that Paolo can get to specific spots rather than not get there. It's just finishing and aggression, which I know he has, where he needs to vastly improve, as well as obviously continue to hit threes and FTs at just an average rate. Franz just needs a counter to when his move is cut-off when he drives, but also just fixing the arc on his threes while not relying on so much arm power to get the shot off.

[Bensational]

Paolo’s efficiency will settle once he finds a better balance between running point and attacking. When he gets blitzed by 3 defenders he sees 6 arms to draw a foul off instead of 3 open Magic players (who could also do better at getting better position). When the foul isn’t called then it’s a bad shot with low chance of dropping. If he’d made the pass at least the ball is alive, but there’s also every chance he passes to someone who doesn’t utilise the open look and puts the ball on the floor to drive again.

Striking the balance will help a lot, but that takes time and experience.

Should he be “running point”?

As long as the ball is in his hands and he is the offensive engine, yeah, we want him thinking about both scoring and passing options. Right now he’s young and slow to read the floor, but he’ll get there.

[Knightro]

This is true. And it's a simple reason for a lot of our offensive issues. A lot of good-great teams just have more reliable offensive 1st/2nd options. They're not worried about or debating third stringers coming in for 9-13 minutes and adding some points, because they know that Brunson or Giannis or Siakam or Bam or Donovan Mitchell will have to play really well for their team to have any success and the other stuff is just fun stuff to debate.

For all the **** we all like to talk about the lack of competent point guard play and lack of perimeter shooting and all that, the fact is the Magic's No. 1 and No. 2 options offensively are a combined 206-662 from 3PT this year.

That's just 31.1%.

[Bensational]

It doesn't really matter how old Paolo is though. He's getting star player usage and producing at a level that is far below star player capability or expectation.

There are 20 NBA players with at least a 29.6 USG%, including Paolo.

He's 18th out of the 20 in TS%. Ahead of only Cade Cunningham and Kyle Kuzma who each have free reign on 13 and 15 win teams respectively.

I'd argue it does matter in terms of grading his performance as a #1 option

That isn't the point though.

Regardless of his age, what he's doing isn't good enough and his year 1 to year 2 jump frankly hasn't been good enough either.

He was .529 TS% as a rookie and is just .548 in year 2.

I just don't like suggesting "oh well it's a sophomore slump" when most other star players at the same age/experience level made much more significant gains from year 1 to year 2.

Other Stars Year 1 to Year 2.
Durant .519 to .577
Giannis .518 to .552
Luka .545 to .585
Edwards .523 to .560
Davis .559 to .582
LeBron .488 to .554
Curry .568 to .595
Leonard .573 to .592
Brown .539 to .562
Zion .616 to .649

The only current high end NBA scorers that truly had sophomore slumps from an efficiency standpoint were Tatum and Booker.

How many of those guys lead teams to the playoffs in their 2nd season? How do we evaluate the success vs the inefficiency? I struggle to believe Paolo is holding the team back, even though I fully admit he has a lot of refining and improvement to go still.

[Bensational]

This is true. And it's a simple reason for a lot of our offensive issues. A lot of good-great teams just have more reliable offensive 1st/2nd options. They're not worried about or debating third stringers coming in for 9-13 minutes and adding some points, because they know that Brunson or Giannis or Siakam or Bam or Donovan Mitchell will have to play really well for their team to have any success and the other stuff is just fun stuff to debate.

For all the **** we all like to talk about the lack of competent point guard play and lack of perimeter shooting and all that, the fact is the Magic's No. 1 and No. 2 options offensively are a combined 206-662 from 3PT this year.

That's just 31.1%.

Interesting, because Paolo went from a 29% 3pt shooter last season to a 34% shooter this season. 5% increase from rookie to sophomore is nothing to sneeze at when you’re complaining about a lack of improvement in efficiency a couple posts prior. Instead you group him in with Franz who’s numbers have tanked this season in an effort to exaggerate how bad he is.

[Knightro]

I'd argue it does matter in terms of grading his performance as a #1 option

That isn't the point though.

Regardless of his age, what he's doing isn't good enough and his year 1 to year 2 jump frankly hasn't been good enough either.

He was .529 TS% as a rookie and is just .548 in year 2.

I just don't like suggesting "oh well it's a sophomore slump" when most other star players at the same age/experience level made much more significant gains from year 1 to year 2.

Other Stars Year 1 to Year 2.
Durant .519 to .577
Giannis .518 to .552
Luka .545 to .585
Edwards .523 to .560
Davis .559 to .582
LeBron .488 to .554
Curry .568 to .595
Leonard .573 to .592
Brown .539 to .562
Zion .616 to .649

The only current high end NBA scorers that truly had sophomore slumps from an efficiency standpoint were Tatum and Booker.

How many of those guys lead teams to the playoffs in their 2nd season? How do we evaluate the success vs the inefficiency? I struggle to believe Paolo is holding the team back, even though I fully admit he has a lot of refining and improvement to go still.

Leonard year 2: 58-24 (made playoffs as 2 seed, lost in NBA Finals in 7)
Brown year 2: 55-27 (made playoffs as 2 seed, lost in ECF in 7)
Tatum year 2: 49-33 (made playoffs as 4 seed, lost in EC Semis in 5)
Edwards year 2: 46-36 (made playoffs as 7 seed, lost in 6 in round 1)
Luka year 2: 43-32 (made playoffs as 7 seed, lost in 6 in round 1)
Giannis year 2: 41-41 (made playoffs as 6 seed, lost in 6 in Round 1)
LeBron year 2: 42-40
Curry year 2: 36-46
Davis year 2: 34-48
Zion year 2: 31-41
Booker year 2: 24-58
Durant year 2: 23-59

There's obviously key context missing when it comes to some of these records. Not all these guys were No. 1 USG% guys on their respective teams. Some were drafted or acquired by really good teams like Leonard. Others were picked by really bad teams.

[thelead]

This is true. And it's a simple reason for a lot of our offensive issues. A lot of good-great teams just have more reliable offensive 1st/2nd options. They're not worried about or debating third stringers coming in for 9-13 minutes and adding some points, because they know that Brunson or Giannis or Siakam or Bam or Donovan Mitchell will have to play really well for their team to have any success and the other stuff is just fun stuff to debate.

For all the **** we all like to talk about the lack of competent point guard play and lack of perimeter shooting and all that, the fact is the Magic's No. 1 and No. 2 options offensively are a combined 206-662 from 3PT this year.

That's just 31.1%.

Interesting, because Paolo went from a 29% 3pt shooter last season to a 34% shooter this season. 5% increase from rookie to sophomore is nothing to sneeze at when you’re complaining about a lack of improvement in efficiency a couple posts prior. Instead you group him in with Franz who’s numbers have tanked this season in an effort to exaggerate how bad he is.

31.7% last month and 19.4% this month. Trending the wrong direction. A lot of the improvement comes for a ridiculously hot month of December where he shot 47.8%. Then the attempts kept creeping up and the percentages began dropping.

He needs to stop thinking like Melo and start thinking more like LeBron. Move the ball and look to score from the elbow. And don't force things. If your teammates miss open shots, they miss open shots. You can't consistently make tough shots... at least not yet.

[Knightro]

Interesting, because Paolo went from a 29% 3pt shooter last season to a 34% shooter this season. 5% increase from rookie to sophomore is nothing to sneeze at when you’re complaining about a lack of improvement in efficiency a couple posts prior. Instead you group him in with Franz who’s numbers have tanked this season in an effort to exaggerate how bad he is.

Couple things...

Paolo shot 29.8% last year, not 29%. So it has been a 4% increase YOY so far, not a 5% increase. After tonight's 0-5, Paolo's down to 33.8% for this season and steadily dropping as he's just 5-31 so far in April.

But guess what? Just so you don't think I'm being biased towards Franz or against Paolo, when last year when Franz was exactly on the league average of 36.1% and Paolo was at 29.8%, they still combined weren't good enough.

If this team wants to have a good offense, the two guys who take the most shots and use the most possessions can't shoot this poorly.

One of them can't be average and the other well below.

One of them CERTAINLY can't be below average and the other well below.

They both have to be a lot better.

[dsg2021]

If I had to take a guess in the dark, Paolo is not sleeping well enough lately.

That can make you play at 60% without you ever realizing it fully, and it’s the missing difference causing missed attempts at the basket and less than sharp passing than usual.

Since his parents aren’t around him and this is still his 2nd season, the Magic might not be checking on his sleep health enough (again, complete guess in the dark so taken with a grain of salt). And the Magic are forgetting it’s a Playoffs season that demands better monitoring.

We also are not the type of team that should necessarily be over-practicing maybe, given the crazy energy they put out in games compared to other teams. I mean, I still want the Miami level of fitness requirements, but something has to give because me personally I would be treating this team as old vets to compensate for the energy they put out in games. And tbf, I haven’t read a single thing about Mosely running them dry in practices either.

[basketballRob]

Is it possible that Fultz didn't spread the floor? Could you imagine if Paolo played with a lineup that included a player that drew a lot of gravity instead of Fultz. It's amazing how everyone's percentages go up with other shooters.

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[DiplomaticMagic]

Did you guys see the play where Fultz looked away a wide open Moe Wagner cutting to basket and passed it to I think Suggs (or Harris) in the corner? Just terrible...

Im honestly sick of watching Wendell play basketball. You throw it to him in the post, and he takes 5 seconds to gather only to throw some weak ass **** to the rim. Goga would be better than this bum

[Knightro]

Is it possible that Fultz didn't spread the floor? Could you imagine if Paolo played with a lineup that included a player that drew a lot of gravity instead of Fultz. It's amazing how everyone's percentages go up with other shooters.

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Markelle will have a game like tonight where he makes 8-16 shots inside the arc and people will incorrectly think he’s had a good game without understanding how badly he’s hurting all the other possessions he’s in the game for even if he’s not directly involved in the action on those possessions.

It’s absolutely worse to be a non-shooter than it is to be a bad shooter.

Franz is rotten shooting the ball this year, but teams will still close out on him because every player who is willing to fire will at least draw a close out.

Fultz has long tricked a lot of misinformed fans who didn't and perhaps still don’t understand the damage his lack of ATTEMPTING perimeter shots does to the offense as a whole.

[Bensational]

If this team wants to have a good offense, the two guys who take the most shots and use the most possessions can't shoot this poorly.

One of them can't be average and the other well below.

One of them CERTAINLY can't be below average and the other well below.

They both have to be a lot better.

Totally. I just think you're spotlighting things and viewing them in some pretty extreme isolation and not really giving Paolo the credit he deserves for a 2nd year guy. And you're twisting your parameters a bit right now to make a case against Paolo. Ie:

How many of those guys lead teams to the playoffs in their 2nd season? How do we evaluate the success vs the inefficiency? I struggle to believe Paolo is holding the team back, even though I fully admit he has a lot of refining and improvement to go still.

Leonard year 2: 58-24 (made playoffs as 2 seed, lost in NBA Finals in 7)
Brown year 2: 55-27 (made playoffs as 2 seed, lost in ECF in 7)
Tatum year 2: 49-33 (made playoffs as 4 seed, lost in EC Semis in 5)
Edwards year 2: 46-36 (made playoffs as 7 seed, lost in 6 in round 1)
Luka year 2: 43-32 (made playoffs as 7 seed, lost in 6 in round 1)
Giannis year 2: 41-41 (made playoffs as 6 seed, lost in 6 in Round 1)
LeBron year 2: 42-40
Curry year 2: 36-46
Davis year 2: 34-48
Zion year 2: 31-41
Booker year 2: 24-58
Durant year 2: 23-59

I know you mentioned that key context was missing, but a lot of that context would exclude it from entering a comparison with Paolo.

Leonard didn't lead the Spurs, he played with Tim Duncan, Manu and Tony Parker.
Brown took 11.5fgas a game and was 1 of 5 Boston players to take 10-11FGAs a game behind Kyrie leading the team.
Tatum's sophomore season was 55% TS%, -4% worse than his rookie season which is why he didn't make your first list. It wasn't until Tatum's 3rd season that he had the kind of USG and #1 attention Paolo has been facing this season, and Tatum's TS% was 57%.
Ant had a TS% of 56% compared to Paolo's 55%, so not much separation there.
Luka is a freak, and Paolo isn't Luka.
Giannis had a TS% of 55% and he was the #6 option on his team, he didn't lead that team to the playoffs.

Which brings me back to the question I asked earlier - quite genuinely - how can we make sense of Paolo being inefficient whilst simultaneously leading the team to its best record in over a decade? He had a lot of help from the rest of the team, but do we actually believe the team would have been this good without Paolo?

[VFX]

Is it possible that Fultz didn't spread the floor? Could you imagine if Paolo played with a lineup that included a player that drew a lot of gravity instead of Fultz. It's amazing how everyone's percentages go up with other shooters.

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Markelle will have a game like tonight where he makes 8-16 shots inside the arc and people will incorrectly think he’s had a good game without understanding how badly he’s hurting all the other possessions he’s in the game for even if he’s not directly involved in the action on those possessions.

It’s absolutely worse to be a non-shooter than it is to be a bad shooter.

Franz is rotten shooting the ball this year, but teams will still close out on him because every player who is willing to fire will at least draw a close out.

Fultz has long tricked a lot of misinformed fans who didn't and perhaps still don’t understand the damage his lack of ATTEMPTING perimeter shots does to the offense as a whole.

This. I don’t know where people get the idea he is good defensively. He doesn’t close out, gets crushed on screens, and loses his guy all the time. Why? Because he gets steals sometimes???

Yeah, we get that he can score inside using crafty moves to the basket. He’s also a complete liability off the ball and kills the flow of the offense. Actually between him and Paolo being inefficient the entire offense looks worse.

There is no scenario where Paolo and Fultz should be sharing the court. They are both too ball dominant and the court shrinks to nothing. Tonights offense was arguably some of the worst I’ve witnessed from this teams starting lineup.

I blame Mosely for a lot of it too. Why? Because Paolo is NOT at that level yet that he needs to take up the entire shot clock on offense. Move the goddamn ball until he’s hitting outside shots with ease. He isn’t prime Houston era James Harden or Miami era Lebron. He’s an inefficient POWER forward that lacks the ability to get easier spots on the floor. Guy is bigger than KG and pretending to be Lebron James downhill without the handles or quickness.