NBA MVP Discussion Thread 2023-24 (Part 5: So who's winning MVP? )

[Cubbies2120]

SGA and Luka still have a realistic path to win MVP. Would involve the Nuggets dropping 1 of their remaining games and the Mavs+Thunder winning their remaining 2 games

"Nada poslednja umire" - Serbian for 'Hope dies last'

"Realistic path" must mean "non-0%"...which could be true, 0.1% chance meets that qualification

[famicommander]

Jokic and Luka's ranks in each stat

Bold = Jokic lead
Italics = Luka lead

Box score totals:
Points: Jokic 5th, Luka 1st
Rebounds: Jokic 3rd, Luka 16th
Assists: Jokic 2nd, Luka 3rd
Steals: Jokic 9th, Luka 12th
Blocks: Jokic 32nd, Luka 107th
Turnovers: Jokic 9th, Luka 1st

Advanced:
PER: Jokic 1st, Luka 4th
WS: Jokic 1st, Luka 5th
OWS: Jokic 1st, Luka 5th
DWS: Jokic 2nd, Luka 16th
WS/48: Jokic 1st, Luka 5th
BPM: Jokic 1st, Luka 2nd
OBPM: Jokic 1st, Luka 2nd
DPBM: Jokic 1st, Luka 17th
VORP: Jokic 1st, Luka 2nd
Ortg: Jokic 4th, Luka 127th
Drtg: Jokic 6th, Luka 78th
TS%: Jokic 10th, Luka 39th
PIE: Jokic 1st, Luka 2nd
Net Rtg: Jokic 6th, Luka 100th
EPM: Jokic 5th, Luka 3rd

People like to pretend it's close but it isn't. Jokic is on a level by himself.

[AleksandarN]

Jokic and Luka's ranks in each stat

Bold = Jokic lead
Italics = Luka lead

Box score totals:
Points: Jokic 5th, Luka 1st
Rebounds: Jokic 3rd, Luka 16th
Assists: Jokic 2nd, Luka 3rd
Steals: Jokic 9th, Luka 12th
Blocks: Jokic 32nd, Luka 107th
Turnovers: Jokic 9th, Luka 1st

Advanced:
PER: Jokic 1st, Luka 4th
WS: Jokic 1st, Luka 5th
OWS: Jokic 1st, Luka 5th
DWS: Jokic 1st, Luka 16th
WS/48: Jokic 1st, Luka 5th
BPM: Jokic 1st, Luka 2nd
OBPM: Jokic 1st, Luka 2nd
DPBM: Jokic 1st, Luka 17th
VORP: Jokic 1st, Luka 2nd
Ortg: Jokic 4th, Luka 127th
Drtg: Jokic 6th, Luka 78th
TS%: Jokic 10th, Luka 39th
PIE: Jokic 1st, Luka 2nd
Net Rtg: Jokic 6th, Luka 100th
EPM: Jokic 5th, Luka 3rd

People like to pretend it's close but it isn't. Jokic is on a level by himself.

But, but injuries etc.

[Mr B]

Jokic and Luka's ranks in each stat

Bold = Jokic lead
Italics = Luka lead

Box score totals:
Points: Jokic 5th, Luka 1st
Rebounds: Jokic 3rd, Luka 16th
Assists: Jokic 2nd, Luka 3rd
Steals: Jokic 9th, Luka 12th
Blocks: Jokic 32nd, Luka 107th
Turnovers: Jokic 9th, Luka 1st

Advanced:
PER: Jokic 1st, Luka 4th
WS: Jokic 1st, Luka 5th
OWS: Jokic 1st, Luka 5th
DWS: Jokic 1st, Luka 16th
WS/48: Jokic 1st, Luka 5th
BPM: Jokic 1st, Luka 2nd
OBPM: Jokic 1st, Luka 2nd
DPBM: Jokic 1st, Luka 17th
VORP: Jokic 1st, Luka 2nd
Ortg: Jokic 4th, Luka 127th
Drtg: Jokic 6th, Luka 78th
TS%: Jokic 10th, Luka 39th
PIE: Jokic 1st, Luka 2nd
Net Rtg: Jokic 6th, Luka 100th
EPM: Jokic 5th, Luka 3rd

People like to pretend it's close but it isn't. Jokic is on a level by himself.

What about points per game?

[Exp0sed]

Jokic and Luka's ranks in each stat

Bold = Jokic lead
Italics = Luka lead

People like to pretend it's close but it isn't. Jokic is on a level by himself.

there's no reason rehash this debate year after year:

stats, raw or advanced are not the end all be all. if they were, there would be no need for MVP "discussion", thread or even votes, as a A.I could just award MVP based on these stats

"Jokic is on a level by himself" is a different statement than: "in terms of advanced stats, Jokic is on a level all by himself"

the latter statement is true while the former might be true, that's a big difference

[famicommander]

Jokic and Luka's ranks in each stat

Bold = Jokic lead
Italics = Luka lead

People like to pretend it's close but it isn't. Jokic is on a level by himself.

there's no reason rehash this debate year after year:

stats, raw or advanced are not the end all be all. if they were, there would be no need for MVP "discussion", thread or even votes, as a A.I could just award MVP based on these stats

"Jokic is on a level by himself" is a different statement than: "in terms of advanced stats, Jokic is on a level all by himself"

the latter statement is true while the former might be true, that's a big difference

Players with a 10.0 VORP season, NBA history:
Michael Jordan (6 times)
LeBron James (twice)
David Robinson (once)
Dr J (once, in the ABA)
Jokic (this season)

Players with a 13.0 BPM season, NBA history:
LeBron James (once)
Nikola Jokic (three times, including this season)

Players with a .2925 WS/48 season, NBA history:
Kareem (three times)
Wilt (once)
Jordan (three times)
LeBron (four times)
Curry (once)
Robinson (once)
Durant (once)
Hawkins (once)
Paul (once)
Jokic (four times, including this season)

Players with a 31 PER season, NBA history:
Wilt (three times)
Jordan (four times)
LeBron (three times)
Curry (once)
Giannis (twice)
Embiid (twice)
Jokic (four times, including this season)

(Wilt played a ton of his seasons before some of these metrics existed or he'd have more)

It's incorrect to try to reduce the argument to "the advanced stats determine the MVP".

No, it's that Jokic's advanced stats are better than Luka's to a ridiculous degree. It's not like he has a slim lead in these stats, he's dominating them at a prime Jordan/LeBron/Kareem level.

[dygaction]

Jokic and Luka's ranks in each stat

Bold = Jokic lead
Italics = Luka lead

Box score totals:
Points: Jokic 5th, Luka 1st
Rebounds: Jokic 3rd, Luka 16th
Assists: Jokic 2nd, Luka 3rd
Steals: Jokic 9th, Luka 12th
Blocks: Jokic 32nd, Luka 107th
Turnovers: Jokic 9th, Luka 1st

Advanced:
PER: Jokic 1st, Luka 4th
WS: Jokic 1st, Luka 5th
OWS: Jokic 1st, Luka 5th
DWS: Jokic 1st, Luka 16th
WS/48: Jokic 1st, Luka 5th
BPM: Jokic 1st, Luka 2nd
OBPM: Jokic 1st, Luka 2nd
DPBM: Jokic 1st, Luka 17th
VORP: Jokic 1st, Luka 2nd
Ortg: Jokic 4th, Luka 127th
Drtg: Jokic 6th, Luka 78th
TS%: Jokic 10th, Luka 39th
PIE: Jokic 1st, Luka 2nd
Net Rtg: Jokic 6th, Luka 100th
EPM: Jokic 5th, Luka 3rd

People like to pretend it's close but it isn't. Jokic is on a level by himself.

What about points per game?

Jokic has better stats in many many categories and almost across board, but using total numbers for assists, steals... instead of per game, per 36, or per 100 is kind of low and shows the insecure of some fans. Coby White, Franz Wagner has more points, and Paul Reed has more rebounds than Embiid this season.

[Forbes]

Yes Joker is better than Luka,

Luka also got an injury plagued team to 50 wins so far and the 6 spot. Not to mention supporting cast isn’t even as good as the nuggets supporting cast.

Absolutely no one expected the Mavs to be here. No one thought the 2 stars could coexist in harmony like they are right now.

Give it to Luka so he can win it again next year.

Very unlikely, I think they give it’s to Joker which is totally fine with me because there is no one on his level.

[famicommander]

Jokic and Luka's ranks in each stat

Bold = Jokic lead
Italics = Luka lead

Box score totals:
Points: Jokic 5th, Luka 1st
Rebounds: Jokic 3rd, Luka 16th
Assists: Jokic 2nd, Luka 3rd
Steals: Jokic 9th, Luka 12th
Blocks: Jokic 32nd, Luka 107th
Turnovers: Jokic 9th, Luka 1st

Advanced:
PER: Jokic 1st, Luka 4th
WS: Jokic 1st, Luka 5th
OWS: Jokic 1st, Luka 5th
DWS: Jokic 1st, Luka 16th
WS/48: Jokic 1st, Luka 5th
BPM: Jokic 1st, Luka 2nd
OBPM: Jokic 1st, Luka 2nd
DPBM: Jokic 1st, Luka 17th
VORP: Jokic 1st, Luka 2nd
Ortg: Jokic 4th, Luka 127th
Drtg: Jokic 6th, Luka 78th
TS%: Jokic 10th, Luka 39th
PIE: Jokic 1st, Luka 2nd
Net Rtg: Jokic 6th, Luka 100th
EPM: Jokic 5th, Luka 3rd

People like to pretend it's close but it isn't. Jokic is on a level by himself.

What about points per game?

Jokic has better stats in many many categories and almost across board, but using total numbers for assists, steals... instead of per game, per 36, or per 100 is kind of low and shows the insecure of some fans. Coby White, Franz Wagner has more points, and Paul Reed has more rebounds than Embiid this season.

Availability matters. End of.

[dygaction]

What about points per game?

Jokic has better stats in many many categories and almost across board, but using total numbers for assists, steals... instead of per game, per 36, or per 100 is kind of low and shows the insecure of some fans. Coby White, Franz Wagner has more points, and Paul Reed has more rebounds than Embiid this season.

Availability matters. End of.

yes, but it is reflected in wins, just saying you don't have to be creative and outsmart what basketball community usually do to justify Jokic is better.

[Cubbies2120]

What about points per game?

Jokic has better stats in many many categories and almost across board, but using total numbers for assists, steals... instead of per game, per 36, or per 100 is kind of low and shows the insecure of some fans. Coby White, Franz Wagner has more points, and Paul Reed has more rebounds than Embiid this season.

Availability matters. End of.

This ^

Luka's lucky that they put the OFFICIAL # of games missed to be 17 to be eligible for awards.

Historical precedent has been, over the last 45 years, if you miss double digit games, you don't win MVP (only 1 exception to this rule, 2001 Allen Iverson). That's it. 45 years, only one player has won MVP missing 10+ games. Luka has already missed 10 this year, the fact that he's even somewhat in the conversation is the product of the 'Embiid rule'

[Cubbies2120]

Jokic has better stats in many many categories and almost across board, but using total numbers for assists, steals... instead of per game, per 36, or per 100 is kind of low and shows the insecure of some fans. Coby White, Franz Wagner has more points, and Paul Reed has more rebounds than Embiid this season.

Availability matters. End of.

yes, but it is reflected in wins, just saying you don't have to be creative and outsmart what basketball community usually do to justify Jokic is better.

There's no need to justify that Jokic is better - he's the reigning champ + Finals MVP, and about to win another MVP.

Luka's fans need to justify that Luka is better than Jokic...he's gotta take the crown from Jokic, not the other way around

Also, check Luka's numbers when he has:
0 days of rest
1 day of rest
2 days of rest
3 days of rest

Those extra games missed contribute to higher per-game numbers...so I definitely understand why you want to use those

[Wolfgang630]

You notice joker is always the constant. Everyone else just rotates through from Embiid to Giannis to SGA to Tatum to Luka. It’s a revolving door except for the Joker

[famicommander]

Jokic has better stats in many many categories and almost across board, but using total numbers for assists, steals... instead of per game, per 36, or per 100 is kind of low and shows the insecure of some fans. Coby White, Franz Wagner has more points, and Paul Reed has more rebounds than Embiid this season.

Availability matters. End of.

This ^

Luka's lucky that they put the OFFICIAL # of games missed to be 17 to be eligible for awards.

Historical precedent has been, over the last 45 years, if you miss double digit games, you don't win MVP (only 1 exception to this rule, 2001 Allen Iverson). That's it. 45 years, only one player has won MVP missing 10+ games. Luka has already missed 10 this year, the fact that he's even somewhat in the conversation is the product of the 'Embiid rule'

Embiid won it last year while missing 16 games.

[Woodsanity]

Availability matters. End of.

This ^

Luka's lucky that they put the OFFICIAL # of games missed to be 17 to be eligible for awards.

Historical precedent has been, over the last 45 years, if you miss double digit games, you don't win MVP (only 1 exception to this rule, 2001 Allen Iverson). That's it. 45 years, only one player has won MVP missing 10+ games. Luka has already missed 10 this year, the fact that he's even somewhat in the conversation is the product of the 'Embiid rule'

Embiid won it last year while missing 16 games.

The one thing I will respect about Luka is he didn't have his pathetic little MVP campaigning like Regular season merchant Embiid.

[Bob8]

Jokic and Luka's ranks in each stat

Bold = Jokic lead
Italics = Luka lead

People like to pretend it's close but it isn't. Jokic is on a level by himself.

there's no reason rehash this debate year after year:

stats, raw or advanced are not the end all be all. if they were, there would be no need for MVP "discussion", thread or even votes, as a A.I could just award MVP based on these stats

"Jokic is on a level by himself" is a different statement than: "in terms of advanced stats, Jokic is on a level all by himself"

the latter statement is true while the former might be true, that's a big difference

Like I said few days ago, Jokic is on the same level or better than prime MJ. Go figure. I just wonder how that domination is not seen in standings?

I'm almost sure that we won't need to watch games or box score in few years time, we will just watch +/- and advanced stats and crown the MVP, GOAT...

[Cubbies2120]

Availability matters. End of.

This ^

Luka's lucky that they put the OFFICIAL # of games missed to be 17 to be eligible for awards.

Historical precedent has been, over the last 45 years, if you miss double digit games, you don't win MVP (only 1 exception to this rule, 2001 Allen Iverson). That's it. 45 years, only one player has won MVP missing 10+ games. Luka has already missed 10 this year, the fact that he's even somewhat in the conversation is the product of the 'Embiid rule'

Embiid won it last year while missing 16 games.

Yes, shortly after the NBA made their plans known for a 65 game minimum (back in April 2023).

Prior to that, it was always a de-facto informal rule...cause the NBA never had a minimum. The voters historically set it at 10 games missed.

[Bob8]

I hope that Denver and Mavs meet in round 2 and we can see how big the difference actually is.

[iggymcfrack]

Jokic and Luka's ranks in each stat

Bold = Jokic lead
Italics = Luka lead

Box score totals:
Points: Jokic 5th, Luka 1st
Rebounds: Jokic 3rd, Luka 16th
Assists: Jokic 2nd, Luka 3rd
Steals: Jokic 9th, Luka 12th
Blocks: Jokic 32nd, Luka 107th
Turnovers: Jokic 9th, Luka 1st

Advanced:
PER: Jokic 1st, Luka 4th
WS: Jokic 1st, Luka 5th
OWS: Jokic 1st, Luka 5th
DWS: Jokic 1st, Luka 16th
WS/48: Jokic 1st, Luka 5th
BPM: Jokic 1st, Luka 2nd
OBPM: Jokic 1st, Luka 2nd
DPBM: Jokic 1st, Luka 17th
VORP: Jokic 1st, Luka 2nd
Ortg: Jokic 4th, Luka 127th
Drtg: Jokic 6th, Luka 78th
TS%: Jokic 10th, Luka 39th
PIE: Jokic 1st, Luka 2nd
Net Rtg: Jokic 6th, Luka 100th
EPM: Jokic 5th, Luka 3rd

People like to pretend it's close but it isn't. Jokic is on a level by himself.

What about points per game?

It’s in italics. It’s one of the 2 categories that Luka’s leading. Joker leads in 19 categories.

[famicommander]

You notice joker is always the constant. Everyone else just rotates through from Embiid to Giannis to SGA to Tatum to Luka. It’s a revolving door except for the Joker

People fall victim to the tendency to pretend like the 2nd best player, whomever it happens to be in the moment, is close to being as good as the best player just by virtue of being the next best. But, right now, the gap between the best guy and the second best guy is uncommonly large compared to other points in NBA history. Jokic is better than the next best guy by the same margins that LeBron and Jordan were in their primes. And, unfortunately, all three of those guys lost out on MVPs that they should've won simply due to narratives and voter fatigue. Embiid's MVP will be remembered in much the same way that Rose's and Malone's are, and if Luka were to win this year it would be no different. This is the Jokic era.