2024 NBA DRAFT THREAD 3

[Bruin]

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?s=46&t=6Hx3ZCSHlysihvhqh0K3hw

[Dalek]

To add to the Mogbo hype. Here is Jonathan and Scottie talking about being drafted by the Raptors:

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[ArthurVandelay]

Mogbo has been near top of UDFA list for me as a 2-way

I don’t think 31 is good value but if Masai takes him there, I’ll be alright with it

[OAKLEY_2]

Collier is unlikely to be chosen among the top 10, so who would be most likely to select him ahead of the Pacers pick at #17?

#11 - Chicago
#12 - Oklahoma City
#13 - Portland (via Golden State)
#14 - New Orleans (via LA Lakers)
#15 - Philadelphia
#16 - Miami

He's not the typical Heat type of pick, but could be a backup for the 76ers or Pelicans.

Otherwise, Portland, OKC and Chicago would likely priotize other positions or needs as their backcourts are already quite full.

Of the six teams that could possibly select him, only two of them would likely have him on their draft boards as a tier 1 prospect and among them, they could have other guards like Jared McCain, Ja'Kobe Walter, Kyshawn George or Devin Carter ranked ahead of him.

Of the above players mentioned only Ja Kobe Walter is legit to get picked before Collier. Collier is the classic Miami pick. All it takes is one team. He will not fall to us.

[Grew]

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That was his measurement when he was 16. Good wingspan for his height. I would guess his wingspan is close to 7-0 now.

Defensively he didn’t have the bounce like Ryan Dunn. He will need to rely on read and positioning, especially on the perimeter.

Offensively, he can pass and probably know when to cut without the ball. Apparently he was a shooter when he was skinny. The body had a completely transformation, the muscles memory must got screwed, fingers crossed on his shooting ability.

Overall his skill sets and background seem a good fit for the Raptors. Not sure if I would pick him ahead of Ryan Dunn and Ulrich Chomche with the Pistons pick.

Didn't Anthony Davis have the same story? Played PG then his height explode and he attributed his skills to that.

It’s kinda different
Davis no longer a hidden talent

Davis grew to 6 feet by the end of his freshman year, then 6-4 as a sophomore and 6-7 to start his junior year. That's when a select group of South Side coaches first took notice.

…

Davis grew to 6-10 before his senior season, but no one seemed to notice that an elite national talent was playing on the South Side.

Kelly Olynyk Wiki

Olynyk developed as a point guard, continuing to play the position even after growing from 6'3" (1.90 m) to 6'10" (2.08 m) in grade 11.

Both AD and KO were already grown to 6-10 before graduated from HS. Mogba was still at 6-0 probably around the junior year.

So odd to constantly hear this about Kelly. He was a PG because of skillset, not size. Dude was 6'0 in 6th grade. 6'4 or 6'5 to start 9th. Not that crazy he ended up 6'10. He had the ball throughout school because he was the best player to come from that part of Canada by far, since steve nash and still is to this day.

[manjusaka]

Read on Twitter

That was his measurement when he was 16. Good wingspan for his height. I would guess his wingspan is close to 7-0 now.

Defensively he didn’t have the bounce like Ryan Dunn. He will need to rely on read and positioning, especially on the perimeter.

Offensively, he can pass and probably know when to cut without the ball. Apparently he was a shooter when he was skinny. The body had a completely transformation, the muscles memory must got screwed, fingers crossed on his shooting ability.

Overall his skill sets and background seem a good fit for the Raptors. Not sure if I would pick him ahead of Ryan Dunn and Ulrich Chomche with the Pistons pick.

It is fair to consider those players as his competition. Mogbo has bounced around and would be considered a Senior - he is 22 so not young by any means. The body transformation is interesting, but he has found his niche and he is a high motor kid.

Chomche seems a bit more raw, but he is younger and he has some shooting upside. Dunn seems like an elite defender but he is a smaller frame and he doesn't pass much (6 AST%). I just don't see a role for him in the NBA unless he makes a major leap like Herb Jones.

They all need to improve their shooting.

Dunn has the quickness to be a POA defender which I am skeptical with Mogba. I would compare Dunn to Matisse Thybulle who is still in the league. However, Mogbo might be more versatile offensively.

[ATLTimekeeper]

Depend on his measurements. Traditionally, a small guard only succeeds in the NBA if they have girth/strength. I've read great things about Sheppard, but he doesn't have Lowry's build.

He's not a small guard, though. Lowry is like 6 feet with shoes on.

The thing about small guards is they must be strong in the lower body in order to be effective in the NBA. That's why most guard below 6'3 with average wingspan don't become high impact players . My main concern with Sheppard is the size and wingspan and with dilli is his weight.

Since there's no way to tell which guard prospects have good enough lower body strength, we'll have to assume it's okay with Sheppard.

I'm not sure what to say about the wingpsan/height thing. I think it would be better to look at top guard prospects over the years and see if more short player/short wingspan prospects failed compared to the opposite. We live in the age of the logo 3. My suspicion is that plus size/winspan probably accounts for more prospects being overrated. When I look at old combine results I don't see too many short/scrawny/low wingspan guards that surprisingly failed in the NBA. And then when you consider the impact of guys like Steve Nash and Steph Curry there's some validation that not only can this type succeed but also succeed to the point that the league adjusts to them in a fundamental way.

[alpngso]

If not getting a shot to take Sarr, I’d rather have 6th pick than 2-4, with how much money that pick would make vs no. 6 pick would make.

[PushDaRock]

If not getting a shot to take Sarr, I’d rather have 6th pick than 2-4, with how much money that pick would make vs no. 6 pick would make.

Yeah that makes absolutely no sense, the difference is like nothing. The 4th pick makes 1.3m more, 3rd pick about 2m more and the 2nd pick about 3m more.

[Yallbecrazy]

Where has this guy been hiding? If he could shoot he'd be my #1 by a large margin. 66% FT isn't terrible, but those stats and with that build I'm taking this guy top 5.

Sorry, I have been hyping him up. I think some posters mentioned that he is returning, but things could change as it did with Carrington.

CMB is a guy to watch because this draft has so many unimpressive prospects, but I think given his age and production he should be considered lotto. There is some incredible instinct like Scottie that he just naturally has. His coach Lamont Paris:

"I'm telling you, defensively is where he really stands out," Paris said. "He's so active. He anticipates at a high level. He's got tremendous feel. Then he's got the athleticism both vertically and from an agility standpoint that allows him to make plays and recover when he makes mistakes typically. He's a high-level player."

Murray-Boyles rates as South Carolina's top defender, per evanmiya.com. At 6-foot-7 and with a solid frame, he is big enough to hang with opposing post players but nimble enough to lock down opponents on the perimeter as well.

What makes Murray-Boyles' rise all the more surprising is the fact that he's young for his class. He won't turn 19 until the offseason. Nevertheless, he looked unintimidated taking on 24-year old Arkansas big man Makhi Mitchell on Thursday.

https://new.cbssports.com/college-basketball/news/2024-sec-tournament-how-south-carolinas-collin-murray-boyles-became-a-mini-dennis-rodman-as-a-freshman/

Wasn't GG also from S. Carolina? GG had a shot but this guy is a better defender.

GG Jackson had a -0.1 bpm in college. This guy has a 10.3 BPM, great stocks, a 1.5 Ast to turnover ratio, excellent rebounding numbers. Very high free throw rate, great 2pt numbers (volume and efficiency). Weight is also a big factor in NBA success and his build is ideal. I was very disinterested in this draft, but going by the numbers and build he's my #1 and I never heard of him before today.

Last year In early January someone posted Podziemski and I went holy crap this is who I've been looking for. Same thing now, but 4 months later.

Honestly looking at his stats he is a jumpshot away from having that superstar archetype.
O Reb+ high ftr + great assist to turnover ratio+ lots of stocks. Also ideal build and athleticism.
That shows BBIQ and aggression/ WIM (wants it more). His 2pt percentage and volume also shows he's got coordination and touch around the rim so he has skill too.

[Jerry Lucas]

CMB and Mogbo were both on the lists of Masai-type college prospects I posted in another thread back in mid-March.

https://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?f=32&t=2365034&p=111956705#p111956705

[tecumseh18]

If not getting a shot to take Sarr, I’d rather have 6th pick than 2-4, with how much money that pick would make vs no. 6 pick would make.

Yeah that makes absolutely no sense, the difference is like nothing. The 4th pick makes 1.3m more, 3rd pick about 2m more and the 2nd pick about 3m more.

His assumption is that Sarr is the only one of the top six to be a real deal - not just another Skal Laboussiere (we'll see) - and that 2-6 are relatively interchangeable.

So in that light, wouldn't we rather pay one of those guys a #6 salary (6.25 mill) rather than a #2 salary (9.4 mill). If Raps are operating under the cap this summer (letting Gary and BB walk), then that 3+ mill can make a difference.

[dohboy_24]

Alongside his decision to enter the NCAA transfer portal, Aaron Bradshaw has entered his name into the NBA draft.



Given the other prospects at his position, do you think he'll be selected in the first round and where do you rank him among the rest?

Alexander Sarr
Donovan Clingan
Kyle Filipowski
Yves Missi
Kel'el Ware
Ulrich Chomche
Adem Bona
Zach Edey
Zvonimir Ivsic
DaRon Holmes II

[TimeForChange]

NBA draft 2024: Projecting 30 of the best prospects

https://www.espn.com/nba/insider/story/_/id/39906470/nba-draft-2024-projecting-30-best-prospects

Atypically in the one-and-done men's college basketball era, Monday's national championship game featured two of the top four prospects in my stats-based projections squaring off against each other. Purdue center Zach Edey, the consensus national player of the year, and UConn counterpart Donovan Clingan are among the standouts in what's been panned as a weak 2024 NBA draft class.

Although Edey had a dominant game (37 points, 10 rebounds), Clingan's ability to defend him one-on-one enabled the Huskies to stay home on Edey's teammates and limit 3-point attempts as the Huskies won their second title in a row.

Clingan and Edey are among four prospects with a consensus projection of 3.0 wins above replacement player (WARP) or better per season at the NBA level. Only the acclaimed 2014 draft (five) featured more such prospects dating back to 2012.

This year's top players are atypical in terms of establishing themselves late in the process, however. Edey was projected in the second round of the preseason mock draft from ESPN's Jonathan Givony, while Kentucky guard Reed Sheppard was nowhere to be found before his freshman season in Lexington.

My projections translate performance in NCAA Division I and other levels to an NBA equivalent then adjust for age and position to project value over a player's next five seasons. Lastly, I add in ESPN's top 100 prospect rankings for the best consensus projection.

This uses Kevin Pelton's model to project the 30 best prospects.

Spoiler:

1. Donovan Clingan
UConn
C
Top 100: No. 3
Stats: No. 3

Consensus: 3.7 WARP

Clingan had the top stats-based projection heading into last year's NCAA tournament while coming off the bench on the national championship winner behind NBA-bound Adama Sanogo. Clingan's strong productivity in that role has translated into dominance as a sophomore starter, particularly during the NCAA tournament run.

The 7-foot-2 Clingan would be just the third draft pick in my database projected to block at least 6% of opponent 2-point attempts and secure at least 20% of available defensive rebounds, joining Mo Bamba and Victor Wembanyama. Because he's moved all the way up to third in the top 100, Clingan now has the top overall projection despite dropping to third in the stats-only version.

2. Reed Sheppard
Kentucky
G
Top 100: No. 7
Stats: No. 1

Consensus: 3.7 WARP

Although Sheppard's 52% 3-point shooting (on a robust sample of 144 attempts) is regressed down to a projected 39% as an NBA rookie, that's still the best projection for any player since Doug McDermott -- who had multiple years of college data -- in 2014. Sheppard's projected 2.5 steals per 100 plays, second among players in this year's top 100, is almost as impressive as his shooting. Thanks largely to those key skills, Sheppard has the best stats-only projection in this year's draft.

3. Alex Sarr
Perth
C
Top 100: No. 2
Stats: No. 4

Consensus: 3.6 WARP

Sarr's stats-only projection is slightly better than the median No. 1 pick in the past 12 drafts. Playing in the Australian NBL at 18 years old, Sarr averaged 20.3 points, 9.2 rebounds and 2.8 blocks per 36 minutes this season. Despite shooting just 30% on 3s, Sarr's 71% accuracy at the line suggests he has the potential to develop into a stretch 5 in time.

4. Zach Edey
Purdue
C
Top 100: No. 14
Stats: No. 2

Consensus: 3.1 WARP

EDITOR'S PICKS

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Taking his talents: Bronny to enter draft, portal
6dAdrian Wojnarowski

Inside Year 1 of the Victor Wembanyama era
2dAndrew Lopez
Nobody doubts that Edey has been the best player in college basketball. The question is how his skills will translate to the NBA at 7-4. One interesting data point: No college player with a usage projection as high as Edey's has been drafted in the past 12 years. The two players ahead of him, Marquette guard Markus Howard and former Purdue teammate Trevion Williams, played go-to roles that didn't carry over in the NBA. (Williams has yet to play in the league, while Howard did on a two-way contract.) Nonetheless, Edey's dominance has earned him a spot in the first round after he chose to return for his fourth season at Purdue. And, after moving up in the top 100, Edey is the fourth and final player in the top tier of my projections.

5. Zaccharie Risacher
Bourg
SF
Top 100: No. 1
Stats: No. 81

Consensus: 2.2 WARP

On the plus side, Risacher -- currently atop ESPN's draft rankings -- averaged 13.1 PPG in just 24 minutes per game during EuroCup play at 18 years old (he turned 19 on Monday), making 57% of his 2s and 56% of his 3s. That performance was out of line with Risacher's play in the French LNB Pro A, however, as he shot just 51% on 2s and 34% on 3s. And a 69% career free throw shooting percentage across all first-division competition suggests Risacher's 3-point hot streak in EuroCup play might not be legitimate.

6. Ja'Kobe Walter
Baylor
SG
Top 100: No. 12
Stats: No. 8

Consensus: 2.2 WARP

Walter's 3-point shooting will be a make-or-break skill. Nearly 60% of his shot attempts came from 3 at Baylor, and Walter hit them at a middling 34% clip. His 79% accuracy at the free throw line is more encouraging, and Walter could be more selective at the NBA level after launching 6.3 per game this season. Because the rest of Walter's game is somewhat limited, including 42% shooting from 2, he'll need to become a dangerous 3-point threat to play up to this projection.

7. Rob Dillingham
Kentucky
G
Top 100: No. 4
Stats: No. 29

Consensus: 2.2 WARP

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Playing primarily alongside Sheppard off the bench for Kentucky, Dillingham had a 30% usage rate that was second-highest among Division I freshmen behind Notre Dame's Markus Burton according to Sports-Reference.com. Given that heavy load, Dillingham was highly efficient, ranking in the top 10 in true shooting percentage (.595) among freshmen with a 30% usage or higher since 2009-10. Dillingham shot 44% on 3s, not far behind Sheppard's mark.

8. Johnny Furphy
Kansas
SF
Top 100: No. 28
Stats: No. 4

Consensus: 2.0 WARP

Recruited from Australia, Furphy emerged as a starter over the second half of the season. For a freshman wing, Furphy's .609 true shooting percentage was terrific, and more the product of sustainably high 2-point accuracy (64%) than a 3-point hot streak. Furphy's form suggests he could improve on his 35% 3-point shooting as well. Add in good size (a listed 6-9) and Furphy could grow into a multi-positional threat.

9. Nikola Topic
Red Star
PG
Top 100: No. 5
Stats: No. 43

Consensus: 1.9 WARP

The top-rated prospect whose team is still in action, Topic could improve his projection if he can return from a knee injury suffered in early January just after joining EuroLeague side Red Star. Topic shot well inside the arc in his first extended action in the Adriatic Basketball Association while on loan to Mega MIS, making 67% of his 2s, but his stats-only projection is held back by poor 3-point shooting and low rates of steals and blocks.

10. Stephon Castle
UConn
G
Top 100: No. 9
Stats: No. 27

Consensus: 1.8 WARP

The top freshman on the national champion UConn, Castle played an important role throughout the NCAA tournament with his activity on both ends. From a statistical standpoint, Castle's 27% 3-point shooting is something of a concern, but he was solid at the free throw line (75.5%) and shot well enough from 2 (54%) to be reasonably efficient anyway.

11. Isaiah Collier
USC
PG
Top 100: No. 11
Stats: No. 26

Consensus: 1.7 WARP

Collier benefits from the inclusion of stats from the Nike EYBL AAU competitions. Based solely on his EYBL performance, Collier would rank fifth, helping explain why he entered the season projected as a top-five pick. Collier didn't perform at the same level as a freshman at USC and struggled with his turnovers -- his NCAA performance still makes up the bulk of his projection because he played just 221 minutes in EYBL games.

12. Jared McCain
Duke
G
Top 100: No. 19
Stats: No. 13

Consensus: 1.7 WARP

Another strong shooting freshman, McCain knocked down 41% of his 3-point attempts with an even better free throw percentage (88.5%) than Sheppard. At 6-3, McCain will have to demonstrate more playmaking ability than we saw alongside a pair of other ballhandling guards (Tyrese Proctor and Jeremy Roach) at Duke. Still, his fit looks strong alongside a bigger lead ball handler who can allow McCain to defend point guards.

13. Kyshawn George
Miami
G/F
Top 100: No. 24
Stats: No. 10

Consensus: 1.6 WARP

A native of Switzerland who played in France before coming to the U.S. for college, George shot 41% on 3s and used his size (listed 6-8) to accumulate steals and blocks at good rates. He'll have to improve his finishing inside the arc after shooting just 47% on 2s and is already 20, more typical for a sophomore than a freshman.

14. Kyle Filipowski
Duke
F/C
Top 100: No. 16
Stats: No. 25

Consensus: 1.5 WARP

After choosing to return for his sophomore season at Duke, Filipowski made solid strides across the board, improving his shooting percentages inside and beyond the arc and doubling his block rate on the defensive end. Filipowski could stand to develop his finishing, having shot just 59% within five feet, according to Synergy Sports tracking.

15. Tidjane Salaun
Cholet
SF
Top 100: No. 15
Stats: No. 36

Consensus: 1.4 WARP

Having played just 17 minutes total at the Pro A level last season, Salaun has averaged 22 MPG at 18 years old. He's shown 3-point range, making more than one per game at a 35% clip, but 39% accuracy inside the arc is a concern.

16. Payton Sandfort
Iowa
SF
Top 100: No. 35
Stats: No. 12

Consensus: 1.4 WARP

The latest in a line of NBA prospects from Iowa -- which has had a forward drafted in each of the last three years, first Joe Wieskamp and more recently twins Keegan and Kris Murray -- Sandfort stepped into a featured role with both Murrays now in the NBA. As a full-time starter, he shot a career-high 38% on 3s. A career 90% accuracy at the foul line suggests room for more growth as a shooter, which may be necessary to offset low rates of steals and blocks.

17. Matas Buzelis
G League Ignite
F
Top 100: No. 6
Stats: No. 86

Consensus: 1.4 WARP

Of the three G League Ignite prospects projected to go in the first round, Buzelis has the weakest stats-only projection. He scored with below-average efficiency during the regular season due to 27% accuracy beyond the arc, and shot worse than 70% from the foul line. Buzelis was better there during Showcase Cup play. Buzelis is a strong shot blocker for a forward and did a solid job of avoiding turnovers, but rates this high solely because of his top 100 ranking.

18. Tyler Smith
G League Ignite
F/C
Top 100: No. 21
Stats: No. 24

Consensus: 1.4 WARP

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Despite entering the season with less hype than teammates Buzelis and Ron Holland, Smith was the most effective player in the final season of Ignite on a per-minute basis. He shot 56% on 2s and 36% on 3s during the regular season, showing stretch 5 potential. To achieve that, Smith will have to improve his rim protection, having recorded blocks at a below-average rate for a center.

19. Ron Holland
G League Ignite
SF
Top 100: No. 13
Stats: No. 56

Consensus: 1.3 WARP

Although Ignite's dismal record left questions about how it translates, Holland was productive in the 29 games he played across the regular season and Showcase, leading Ignite with 20.6 PPG during the regular season. By getting to the free throw line, Holland maintained solid efficiency despite 24% 3-point shooting. He also filled out the box score with strong rates of rebounds, steals and blocks.

20. Devin Carter
Providence
G
Top 100: No. 17
Stats: No. 38

Consensus: 1.3 WARP

The son of longtime NBA guard Anthony Carter, Devin inherited his dad's physical defense but looks like the more complete offensive player after becoming a 38% 3-point shooter as a junior. (Anthony never averaged more than 7.8 PPG in 13 NBA seasons.) Perhaps Devin's best skill is his rebounding ability. At 6-3, he led the Big East in defensive rebound percentage this season.

play
0:18
Ryan Dunn hammers one home for VirginiaRyan Dunn rattles the rim with an early jam for Virginia against NC State.
21. Ryan Dunn
Virginia
F
Top 100: No. 31
Stats: No. 23

Consensus: 1.2 WARP

The top-rated defensive prospect in the top 100, Dunn has swatted more than 10% of opponent 2-point attempts in each of his two seasons at Virginia. Dunn is also mobile enough to defend on the perimeter, reflected by his strong steal rates. His projections, and draft stock, are limited by a lack of range. Dunn shot 7-of-35 on 3s and is a 52.5% career foul shooter. As a full-time post player, Dunn's slight frame (he's listed at 208 pounds) and below-average defensive rebounding are concerns.

22. Carlton Carrington
Pittsburgh
G
Top 100: No. 25
Stats: No. 34

Consensus: 1.2 WARP

The youngest American prospect in the top 100, Carrington was productive as a starter from Day 1, averaging 13.8 PPG, 5.2 RPG and 4.1 APG. His projection is limited by a lack of defensive playmaking -- he had just 19 steals and eight blocks in nearly 1,100 minutes.

23. Kam Jones
Marquette
SG
Top 100: No. 67
Stats: No. 15

Consensus: 1.0 WARP

Jones rates as Marquette's top prospect, ahead of his two teammates with higher top-100 rankings (Tyler Kolek, at No. 29, and Oso Ighodaro one spot ahead at No. 66). The Golden Eagles' top scorer at 17.2 PPG, Jones was also highly efficient, making better than 40% of his 3s and nearly 60% of his 2-point attempts. His steal rate is also strong, offsetting limited contributions as a rebounder and passer.

24. Baylor Scheierman
Creighton
SF
Top 100: No. 38
Stats: No. 32

Consensus: 1.0 WARP

At 23, Scheierman is the highest-rated fifth-year senior in the top 30 of my projections. Although age is a key factor, Scheierman still rates well because of his productive play early in his college career at South Dakota State before transferring to Creighton. We also have a robust sample to know that Scheierman, a 39% career 3-point shooter, is strong beyond the arc and a terrific perimeter player rebounder.

25. Alex Karaban
UConn
F
Top 100: No. 41
Stats: No. 30

Consensus: 0.9 WARP

The third Husky in my top 30, Karaban played a larger role offensively after starting on last year's national champion squad as a redshirt freshman. He remained highly efficient, shooting 64% on 2-point attempts and 88.5% on free throws. Karaban is also a good enough shot blocker to play small-ball 5 regularly when Clingan was sidelined midseason.

26. Justin Edwards
Kentucky
SF
Top 100: No. 30
Stats: No. 44

Consensus: 0.9 WARP

More so than any other player in this year's draft, Edwards reflects the importance of EYBL performance in these projections. He'd rank fourth among top 100 prospects who played in the EYBL based solely on his play there, compared to eighth among the same group looking strictly at NCAA performance. Orlando Magic guard Cole Anthony is a good example of the lingering predictive power of EYBL play despite an underwhelming freshman campaign.

27. Cody Williams
Colorado
SG
Top 100: No. 10
Stats: No. 103

Consensus: 0.9 WARP

Like fellow Pac-12 prospect Collier, Williams rated stronger coming into the season based on his EYBL performance -- in Williams' case, actually a larger sample of minutes than he played at Colorado as a freshman. His NCAA season was uneven, as Williams made 59% of his 2s and 41.5% of his 3s but generated few assists and steals.

28. Kobe Johnson
USC
SG
Top 100: No. 74
Stats: No. 20

Consensus: 0.9 WARP

The younger brother of Atlanta Hawks forward Jalen Johnson, Johnson posted on social media last week that he's committed to transfer to crosstown rival UCLA if he withdraws from the NBA draft. Having shot 33% career on 3s, Johnson needs to improve his shooting to fill a 3-and-D role in the NBA, but his steal rate is the best of any player in the top 100 -- a strong indicator of NBA defensive potential.

29. Yves Missi
Baylor
C
Top 100: No. 20
Stats: No. 75

Consensus: 0.9 WARP

It's easy to see the NBA role Missi could fill as an above-the-rim finisher with good positional size and athleticism. His stats-only projection is held back by shooting 61% from the field, middling for a center of that ilk, as well as just 13 assists in 780 minutes this season.

30. Zvonomir Ivisic
Kentucky
C/F
Top 100: No. 65
Stats: No. 22

Consensus: 0.8 WARP

Limited to 176 minutes this season because he wasn't cleared until mid-January, Ivisic flashed enough potential to consider drafting him before a Clingan-style breakout as a sophomore. He blocked 12% of opponents' 2-point attempts and shot 67% on 2s in addition to flashing 3-point range (6-of-16 beyond the arc). At 20, however, Ivisic is older than Clingan.

His top 10 from last year:

Wemby
Brandon Miller
Whitmore
Wallace
Dick
Hendricks
George
Sensabaugh
Lively
Scoot

[Psubs]

Alongside his decision to enter the NCAA transfer portal, Aaron Bradshaw has entered his name into the NBA draft.



Given the other prospects at his position, do you think he'll be selected in the first round and where do you rank him among the rest?

Alexander Sarr
Donovan Clingan
Kyle Filipowski
Yves Missi
Kel'el Ware
Ulrich Chomche
Adem Bona
Zach Edey
Zvonimir Ivsic
DaRon Holmes II

I would put him late 2nd at best after undersized PJ Hall and N'Faly Dante. He needs to go back for his sophomore year and actually be good like Kel'el Ware. Practice FTs.

[alpngso]

NBA draft 2024: Projecting 30 of the best prospects

https://www.espn.com/nba/insider/story/_/id/39906470/nba-draft-2024-projecting-30-best-prospects

Atypically in the one-and-done men's college basketball era, Monday's national championship game featured two of the top four prospects in my stats-based projections squaring off against each other. Purdue center Zach Edey, the consensus national player of the year, and UConn counterpart Donovan Clingan are among the standouts in what's been panned as a weak 2024 NBA draft class.

Although Edey had a dominant game (37 points, 10 rebounds), Clingan's ability to defend him one-on-one enabled the Huskies to stay home on Edey's teammates and limit 3-point attempts as the Huskies won their second title in a row.

Clingan and Edey are among four prospects with a consensus projection of 3.0 wins above replacement player (WARP) or better per season at the NBA level. Only the acclaimed 2014 draft (five) featured more such prospects dating back to 2012.

This year's top players are atypical in terms of establishing themselves late in the process, however. Edey was projected in the second round of the preseason mock draft from ESPN's Jonathan Givony, while Kentucky guard Reed Sheppard was nowhere to be found before his freshman season in Lexington.

My projections translate performance in NCAA Division I and other levels to an NBA equivalent then adjust for age and position to project value over a player's next five seasons. Lastly, I add in ESPN's top 100 prospect rankings for the best consensus projection.

This uses Kevin Pelton's model to project the 30 best prospects.

Spoiler:

1. Donovan Clingan
UConn
C
Top 100: No. 3
Stats: No. 3

Consensus: 3.7 WARP

Clingan had the top stats-based projection heading into last year's NCAA tournament while coming off the bench on the national championship winner behind NBA-bound Adama Sanogo. Clingan's strong productivity in that role has translated into dominance as a sophomore starter, particularly during the NCAA tournament run.

The 7-foot-2 Clingan would be just the third draft pick in my database projected to block at least 6% of opponent 2-point attempts and secure at least 20% of available defensive rebounds, joining Mo Bamba and Victor Wembanyama. Because he's moved all the way up to third in the top 100, Clingan now has the top overall projection despite dropping to third in the stats-only version.

2. Reed Sheppard
Kentucky
G
Top 100: No. 7
Stats: No. 1

Consensus: 3.7 WARP

Although Sheppard's 52% 3-point shooting (on a robust sample of 144 attempts) is regressed down to a projected 39% as an NBA rookie, that's still the best projection for any player since Doug McDermott -- who had multiple years of college data -- in 2014. Sheppard's projected 2.5 steals per 100 plays, second among players in this year's top 100, is almost as impressive as his shooting. Thanks largely to those key skills, Sheppard has the best stats-only projection in this year's draft.

3. Alex Sarr
Perth
C
Top 100: No. 2
Stats: No. 4

Consensus: 3.6 WARP

Sarr's stats-only projection is slightly better than the median No. 1 pick in the past 12 drafts. Playing in the Australian NBL at 18 years old, Sarr averaged 20.3 points, 9.2 rebounds and 2.8 blocks per 36 minutes this season. Despite shooting just 30% on 3s, Sarr's 71% accuracy at the line suggests he has the potential to develop into a stretch 5 in time.

4. Zach Edey
Purdue
C
Top 100: No. 14
Stats: No. 2

Consensus: 3.1 WARP

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Nobody doubts that Edey has been the best player in college basketball. The question is how his skills will translate to the NBA at 7-4. One interesting data point: No college player with a usage projection as high as Edey's has been drafted in the past 12 years. The two players ahead of him, Marquette guard Markus Howard and former Purdue teammate Trevion Williams, played go-to roles that didn't carry over in the NBA. (Williams has yet to play in the league, while Howard did on a two-way contract.) Nonetheless, Edey's dominance has earned him a spot in the first round after he chose to return for his fourth season at Purdue. And, after moving up in the top 100, Edey is the fourth and final player in the top tier of my projections.

5. Zaccharie Risacher
Bourg
SF
Top 100: No. 1
Stats: No. 81

Consensus: 2.2 WARP

On the plus side, Risacher -- currently atop ESPN's draft rankings -- averaged 13.1 PPG in just 24 minutes per game during EuroCup play at 18 years old (he turned 19 on Monday), making 57% of his 2s and 56% of his 3s. That performance was out of line with Risacher's play in the French LNB Pro A, however, as he shot just 51% on 2s and 34% on 3s. And a 69% career free throw shooting percentage across all first-division competition suggests Risacher's 3-point hot streak in EuroCup play might not be legitimate.

6. Ja'Kobe Walter
Baylor
SG
Top 100: No. 12
Stats: No. 8

Consensus: 2.2 WARP

Walter's 3-point shooting will be a make-or-break skill. Nearly 60% of his shot attempts came from 3 at Baylor, and Walter hit them at a middling 34% clip. His 79% accuracy at the free throw line is more encouraging, and Walter could be more selective at the NBA level after launching 6.3 per game this season. Because the rest of Walter's game is somewhat limited, including 42% shooting from 2, he'll need to become a dangerous 3-point threat to play up to this projection.

7. Rob Dillingham
Kentucky
G
Top 100: No. 4
Stats: No. 29

Consensus: 2.2 WARP

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Playing primarily alongside Sheppard off the bench for Kentucky, Dillingham had a 30% usage rate that was second-highest among Division I freshmen behind Notre Dame's Markus Burton according to Sports-Reference.com. Given that heavy load, Dillingham was highly efficient, ranking in the top 10 in true shooting percentage (.595) among freshmen with a 30% usage or higher since 2009-10. Dillingham shot 44% on 3s, not far behind Sheppard's mark.

8. Johnny Furphy
Kansas
SF
Top 100: No. 28
Stats: No. 4

Consensus: 2.0 WARP

Recruited from Australia, Furphy emerged as a starter over the second half of the season. For a freshman wing, Furphy's .609 true shooting percentage was terrific, and more the product of sustainably high 2-point accuracy (64%) than a 3-point hot streak. Furphy's form suggests he could improve on his 35% 3-point shooting as well. Add in good size (a listed 6-9) and Furphy could grow into a multi-positional threat.

9. Nikola Topic
Red Star
PG
Top 100: No. 5
Stats: No. 43

Consensus: 1.9 WARP

The top-rated prospect whose team is still in action, Topic could improve his projection if he can return from a knee injury suffered in early January just after joining EuroLeague side Red Star. Topic shot well inside the arc in his first extended action in the Adriatic Basketball Association while on loan to Mega MIS, making 67% of his 2s, but his stats-only projection is held back by poor 3-point shooting and low rates of steals and blocks.

10. Stephon Castle
UConn
G
Top 100: No. 9
Stats: No. 27

Consensus: 1.8 WARP

The top freshman on the national champion UConn, Castle played an important role throughout the NCAA tournament with his activity on both ends. From a statistical standpoint, Castle's 27% 3-point shooting is something of a concern, but he was solid at the free throw line (75.5%) and shot well enough from 2 (54%) to be reasonably efficient anyway.

11. Isaiah Collier
USC
PG
Top 100: No. 11
Stats: No. 26

Consensus: 1.7 WARP

Collier benefits from the inclusion of stats from the Nike EYBL AAU competitions. Based solely on his EYBL performance, Collier would rank fifth, helping explain why he entered the season projected as a top-five pick. Collier didn't perform at the same level as a freshman at USC and struggled with his turnovers -- his NCAA performance still makes up the bulk of his projection because he played just 221 minutes in EYBL games.

12. Jared McCain
Duke
G
Top 100: No. 19
Stats: No. 13

Consensus: 1.7 WARP

Another strong shooting freshman, McCain knocked down 41% of his 3-point attempts with an even better free throw percentage (88.5%) than Sheppard. At 6-3, McCain will have to demonstrate more playmaking ability than we saw alongside a pair of other ballhandling guards (Tyrese Proctor and Jeremy Roach) at Duke. Still, his fit looks strong alongside a bigger lead ball handler who can allow McCain to defend point guards.

13. Kyshawn George
Miami
G/F
Top 100: No. 24
Stats: No. 10

Consensus: 1.6 WARP

A native of Switzerland who played in France before coming to the U.S. for college, George shot 41% on 3s and used his size (listed 6-8) to accumulate steals and blocks at good rates. He'll have to improve his finishing inside the arc after shooting just 47% on 2s and is already 20, more typical for a sophomore than a freshman.

14. Kyle Filipowski
Duke
F/C
Top 100: No. 16
Stats: No. 25

Consensus: 1.5 WARP

After choosing to return for his sophomore season at Duke, Filipowski made solid strides across the board, improving his shooting percentages inside and beyond the arc and doubling his block rate on the defensive end. Filipowski could stand to develop his finishing, having shot just 59% within five feet, according to Synergy Sports tracking.

15. Tidjane Salaun
Cholet
SF
Top 100: No. 15
Stats: No. 36

Consensus: 1.4 WARP

Having played just 17 minutes total at the Pro A level last season, Salaun has averaged 22 MPG at 18 years old. He's shown 3-point range, making more than one per game at a 35% clip, but 39% accuracy inside the arc is a concern.

16. Payton Sandfort
Iowa
SF
Top 100: No. 35
Stats: No. 12

Consensus: 1.4 WARP

The latest in a line of NBA prospects from Iowa -- which has had a forward drafted in each of the last three years, first Joe Wieskamp and more recently twins Keegan and Kris Murray -- Sandfort stepped into a featured role with both Murrays now in the NBA. As a full-time starter, he shot a career-high 38% on 3s. A career 90% accuracy at the foul line suggests room for more growth as a shooter, which may be necessary to offset low rates of steals and blocks.

17. Matas Buzelis
G League Ignite
F
Top 100: No. 6
Stats: No. 86

Consensus: 1.4 WARP

Of the three G League Ignite prospects projected to go in the first round, Buzelis has the weakest stats-only projection. He scored with below-average efficiency during the regular season due to 27% accuracy beyond the arc, and shot worse than 70% from the foul line. Buzelis was better there during Showcase Cup play. Buzelis is a strong shot blocker for a forward and did a solid job of avoiding turnovers, but rates this high solely because of his top 100 ranking.

18. Tyler Smith
G League Ignite
F/C
Top 100: No. 21
Stats: No. 24

Consensus: 1.4 WARP

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Despite entering the season with less hype than teammates Buzelis and Ron Holland, Smith was the most effective player in the final season of Ignite on a per-minute basis. He shot 56% on 2s and 36% on 3s during the regular season, showing stretch 5 potential. To achieve that, Smith will have to improve his rim protection, having recorded blocks at a below-average rate for a center.

19. Ron Holland
G League Ignite
SF
Top 100: No. 13
Stats: No. 56

Consensus: 1.3 WARP

Although Ignite's dismal record left questions about how it translates, Holland was productive in the 29 games he played across the regular season and Showcase, leading Ignite with 20.6 PPG during the regular season. By getting to the free throw line, Holland maintained solid efficiency despite 24% 3-point shooting. He also filled out the box score with strong rates of rebounds, steals and blocks.

20. Devin Carter
Providence
G
Top 100: No. 17
Stats: No. 38

Consensus: 1.3 WARP

The son of longtime NBA guard Anthony Carter, Devin inherited his dad's physical defense but looks like the more complete offensive player after becoming a 38% 3-point shooter as a junior. (Anthony never averaged more than 7.8 PPG in 13 NBA seasons.) Perhaps Devin's best skill is his rebounding ability. At 6-3, he led the Big East in defensive rebound percentage this season.

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0:18
Ryan Dunn hammers one home for VirginiaRyan Dunn rattles the rim with an early jam for Virginia against NC State.
21. Ryan Dunn
Virginia
F
Top 100: No. 31
Stats: No. 23

Consensus: 1.2 WARP

The top-rated defensive prospect in the top 100, Dunn has swatted more than 10% of opponent 2-point attempts in each of his two seasons at Virginia. Dunn is also mobile enough to defend on the perimeter, reflected by his strong steal rates. His projections, and draft stock, are limited by a lack of range. Dunn shot 7-of-35 on 3s and is a 52.5% career foul shooter. As a full-time post player, Dunn's slight frame (he's listed at 208 pounds) and below-average defensive rebounding are concerns.

22. Carlton Carrington
Pittsburgh
G
Top 100: No. 25
Stats: No. 34

Consensus: 1.2 WARP

The youngest American prospect in the top 100, Carrington was productive as a starter from Day 1, averaging 13.8 PPG, 5.2 RPG and 4.1 APG. His projection is limited by a lack of defensive playmaking -- he had just 19 steals and eight blocks in nearly 1,100 minutes.

23. Kam Jones
Marquette
SG
Top 100: No. 67
Stats: No. 15

Consensus: 1.0 WARP

Jones rates as Marquette's top prospect, ahead of his two teammates with higher top-100 rankings (Tyler Kolek, at No. 29, and Oso Ighodaro one spot ahead at No. 66). The Golden Eagles' top scorer at 17.2 PPG, Jones was also highly efficient, making better than 40% of his 3s and nearly 60% of his 2-point attempts. His steal rate is also strong, offsetting limited contributions as a rebounder and passer.

24. Baylor Scheierman
Creighton
SF
Top 100: No. 38
Stats: No. 32

Consensus: 1.0 WARP

At 23, Scheierman is the highest-rated fifth-year senior in the top 30 of my projections. Although age is a key factor, Scheierman still rates well because of his productive play early in his college career at South Dakota State before transferring to Creighton. We also have a robust sample to know that Scheierman, a 39% career 3-point shooter, is strong beyond the arc and a terrific perimeter player rebounder.

25. Alex Karaban
UConn
F
Top 100: No. 41
Stats: No. 30

Consensus: 0.9 WARP

The third Husky in my top 30, Karaban played a larger role offensively after starting on last year's national champion squad as a redshirt freshman. He remained highly efficient, shooting 64% on 2-point attempts and 88.5% on free throws. Karaban is also a good enough shot blocker to play small-ball 5 regularly when Clingan was sidelined midseason.

26. Justin Edwards
Kentucky
SF
Top 100: No. 30
Stats: No. 44

Consensus: 0.9 WARP

More so than any other player in this year's draft, Edwards reflects the importance of EYBL performance in these projections. He'd rank fourth among top 100 prospects who played in the EYBL based solely on his play there, compared to eighth among the same group looking strictly at NCAA performance. Orlando Magic guard Cole Anthony is a good example of the lingering predictive power of EYBL play despite an underwhelming freshman campaign.

27. Cody Williams
Colorado
SG
Top 100: No. 10
Stats: No. 103

Consensus: 0.9 WARP

Like fellow Pac-12 prospect Collier, Williams rated stronger coming into the season based on his EYBL performance -- in Williams' case, actually a larger sample of minutes than he played at Colorado as a freshman. His NCAA season was uneven, as Williams made 59% of his 2s and 41.5% of his 3s but generated few assists and steals.

28. Kobe Johnson
USC
SG
Top 100: No. 74
Stats: No. 20

Consensus: 0.9 WARP

The younger brother of Atlanta Hawks forward Jalen Johnson, Johnson posted on social media last week that he's committed to transfer to crosstown rival UCLA if he withdraws from the NBA draft. Having shot 33% career on 3s, Johnson needs to improve his shooting to fill a 3-and-D role in the NBA, but his steal rate is the best of any player in the top 100 -- a strong indicator of NBA defensive potential.

29. Yves Missi
Baylor
C
Top 100: No. 20
Stats: No. 75

Consensus: 0.9 WARP

It's easy to see the NBA role Missi could fill as an above-the-rim finisher with good positional size and athleticism. His stats-only projection is held back by shooting 61% from the field, middling for a center of that ilk, as well as just 13 assists in 780 minutes this season.

30. Zvonomir Ivisic
Kentucky
C/F
Top 100: No. 65
Stats: No. 22

Consensus: 0.8 WARP

Limited to 176 minutes this season because he wasn't cleared until mid-January, Ivisic flashed enough potential to consider drafting him before a Clingan-style breakout as a sophomore. He blocked 12% of opponents' 2-point attempts and shot 67% on 2s in addition to flashing 3-point range (6-of-16 beyond the arc). At 20, however, Ivisic is older than Clingan.

His top 10 from last year:

Wemby
Brandon Miller
Whitmore
Wallace
Dick
Hendricks
George
Sensabaugh
Lively
Scoot

So Wemby had 3.9 WARP and B Miller had 3.5 WARP so Clingan, Sheppard, Sarr are fairly comparable to those guys based on his model. Hmm

[PushDaRock]

If not getting a shot to take Sarr, I’d rather have 6th pick than 2-4, with how much money that pick would make vs no. 6 pick would make.

Yeah that makes absolutely no sense, the difference is like nothing. The 4th pick makes 1.3m more, 3rd pick about 2m more and the 2nd pick about 3m more.

His assumption is that Sarr is the only one of the top six to be a real deal - not just another Skal Laboussiere (we'll see) - and that 2-6 are relatively interchangeable.

So in that light, wouldn't we rather pay one of those guys a #6 salary (6.25 mill) rather than a #2 salary (9.4 mill). If Raps are operating under the cap this summer (letting Gary and BB walk), then that 3+ mill can make a difference.

Having your pick out of the bunch is still worth more than the miniscule savings of a potential 3m. Your draft board would need to have picks 2-6 as literally dead even as well as not having a positional preference at all for the savings to factor in at all. That's just not going to be the case for literally any team though.

[ronaldo922]

Im starting to love Yves Missi with our Indiana pick if hez there


late bloomer, good size and movement, good wingspan

[Thaddy]

Im starting to love Yves Missi with our Indiana pick if hez there


late bloomer, good size and movement, good wingspan

I want a guard like Collier that almost has it together and throw him in our Gleague. If we can develop a two way half court creator (ideally 6'7+) it would make the SL way better. Missi is someone I'd take at 31st. He is similar to Koloko in several ways.

[JRoy]

This place will go bananas if SAS get the pick.