HadAnEffectHere wrote:The Moose wrote:Some interesting notes on this class from Pelton -“Clingan and Edey are among four prospects with a consensus projection of 3.0 wins above replacement player (WARP) or better per season at the NBA level. Only the acclaimed 2014 draft (five) featured more such prospects dating back to 2012.”
The four in reference are Clingan, Sheppard, Sarr and Edey
Top 5 on his stats model:
1. Sheppard
2. Edey
3. Clingan
4. Sarr
5. Furphy
https://www.espn.com/nba/insider/story/_/id/39906470/nba-draft-2024-projecting-30-best-prospects
Pelton's model very much does not believe in 5th year JUCO transfer Dalton Knecht, lol.
(Cody Williams rating so badly isn't really a surprise either. Williams currently is nowhere close to an NBA player. He needs huge athleticism gains that are very uncommon, but may happen for him since his body is so clearly underdeveloped)
People will trash Pelton's model on here, not unexpected, given there are a lot of 'just trust the flashes bro' eye test evaluators here, but for Clingan and Sheppard especially, projecting that strongly on that model has a pretty good track record.
3.7 WARP is not a nothingburger, especially as an NCAA prospect.
Only 13 NCAA guys have projected 3.7+ WARP since Pelton started in 2006:
1. Anthony Davis - 2012
2. Zion Williamson -2019
3. Kevin Love -2008
4. Chet Holmgren -2022
5. Blake Griffin - 2009
6. James Harden -2009
7. Kyrie Irving -2011
8. DeMarcus Cousins - 2010
9. Steph Curry - 2009
10. Kevin Durant -2007
11. Michael Beasley -2008
12. Kenneth Faried - 2011
13. Dejuan Blair - 2009
So 8 are multi-all nba stars, and 2 potential future ones in Zion and Chet.
If we include non ncaa prospects:
1. Victor Wembanyama- 2023
2. Chet Holmgren - 2022
3. Alperen Sengun - 2021
4. Lamelo Ball - 2020
5. Zion Williamson -2019
6. Luka Doncic - 2018
7. Anthony Davis - 2012
8. Kyrie Irving -2011
9. Kenneth Faried - 2011
10. DeMarcus Cousins - 2010
11. James Harden -2009
12. Blake Griffin -2009
13. Steph Curry - 2009
14. Ricky Rubio - 2009
15. Dejuan Blair - 2009
16. Kevin Love - 2008
17. Michael Beasley - 2008
18. Kevin Love - 2007
Seems like decent company for Clingan and Sheppard