Post#63 » by AbeVigodaLive » Mon Apr 15, 2024 4:57 pm
The NBA playoffs are about matchups.
And according to the regular season... this is BY FAR the worst matchup for the Timberwolves in the entire league.
They lost by 18, 19 and 10 points. (and were down by 23 before a very late run with scrubs cut it to 10 points). The Timberwolves have not even been within 10 points in any of the games in the 2nd half. Heck, I don't even know if they've been within 10 points in the 2nd quarter for almost all three games. Small sample size or not... that's telling. At the very least, Phoenix is coming into the series extremely confident that they can beat Minnesota.
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As noted, the Wolves are an active bunch on defense. They have Gobert patrolling the rim very well. And they're long and willing defenders who are pretty good at getting out to three-point shooters. A couple of notes on that...
Phoenix has good to very good midrange shooters in Durant, Booker and Beal. Only 6 teams shot fewer three pointers this season. So they're more than willing to shoot those mid-range shots. When they do shoot threes... Phoenix was 5th in the league in percentage. Against the Timberwolves, they shot 49% on three pointers, with MANY of them wide open. How are they getting so wide open?
Durant is at the 4. Do you trust Towns to guard him? Reid? Fair enough. Put McDaniels on him. Or, Kyle Anderson. Or, even Edwards. So who does Towns/Reid guard? Booker? No. Beal? No. Yesterday it was Grayson Allen. The league's best three-point shooter this season. For what it's worth, Beal shot 88% on threes vs. Minnesota. (unsustainable). Grayson Allen hit 10 - 16. That might be close to sustainable if he's being defended by power forwards.
So Phoenix definitely has a matchup advantage on offense. What about defense? Can the Timberwolves overpower Durant at the 4?
- Maybe? But probably doubtful. With Gobert on the court, Towns is on the perimeter more. There are just fewer post-ups available. Meanwhile, Durant is nearly 7 feet tall and has the length to get in passing lanes and defend on the perimeter.
Even more telling, is that he's a superstar. A savvy superstar. He baited/flopped officials into two charging calls on Towns yesterday. Towns has led the league in offensive fouls for multiple years. Often, it's not even close. Some are egregious and out of control. Many are borderline. He simply doesn't get a favorable whistle. Might be all the flailing... but whatever it is... it's actually been a disadvantage when he thinks he can overpower smaller or thinner defenders. For example, the Clippers used to be very effective putting Nicolas Batum on Towns. Yesterday, the Suns used guards to defend Towns. It works. Towns will drive. The smaller guys will fall down. History tells us that the foul is going on Towns.
But who cares about Towns. Anthony Edwards is the Timberwolves star. Problem #1: Phoenix knows this and plays a tight shell concept against him to stop penetration. Problem #2: They play Ant physically. Like Towns, he has not figured out how to get a consistently favorable whistle. For Towns it's flailing. For Edwards, there's nothing subtle about his drives. There's yelling and screaming and clapping but no head jerks or falling to the ground after contact. Problem #3: Edwards is at his best when he decides to take over a game, opponent/defense be damned. Well, that's a lot harder with three guys standing in front of you the entire game. Phoenix's defense is inviting Edwards to do just that. Drunk game: Take a shot every time Edwards ignores a wide-open Towns or Reid behind the arc while he dribbles and dribbles and dribbles into a shot. Edwards' next ascension as a star is to (1) star in the playoffs for a series win, (2) learn how to set up teammates better.
Option 1 is more fun. And comes with more glory. Edwards is 22. Part of his mystique is unabashed confidence in himself. I think this series will be a lesson-learning experience for him.
This is just a bad bad matchup for Minnesota. The worst matchup.