Raps in 4 wrote:Randle McMurphy wrote:Raps in 4 wrote:
It really wasn't a great trade if last year was the barometer. Moreno had a better season than Varsho, while also being 4 years younger. Varsho would need to significantly outproduce Moreno for the trade to be a win for us. If they continue to produce at a similar level (or if Moreno leapfrogs him), Arizona won the trade.
The Jays have 2 better catchers than Moreno (including one that is basically his age) and got the best defensive player in baseball out of the deal. Long-term was always gonna be the issue with it, but unless Moreno somehow learns to hit for any power (which doesn’t appear likely), I’m not too worried about this one long-term either.
Positional need is irrelevant. It's like drafting for positional need instead of picking the BPA.
Varsho and Moreno produced at almost an identical level last year (Moreno was a bit more valuable according to both fWAR and bWAR). In no world is trading a player who is 4 years younger for someone who produces at the same level a good trade. Especially when that 4-year younger player was at the peak of his value as a prospect. I refuse to believe a top-5 prospect couldn't net you more than an older version of his current self (they both play premium positions).
Positional need is obviously relevant in evaluating the trade. They very clearly couldn't go into another season with 3 major league caliber catchers in the organization and made the choice to trade one of them. In doing so, they acquired the best defensive player in the game with the ceiling of a 5-6 WAR player. In doing so, they also made the choice to bet on Kirk (who presumably could have garnered just as much as Moreno in trade given his age and production in 2022).
It remains to be seen how that bet on Kirk will go (his offense has fallen off though he's also become one of the best defensive catchers in baseball since the trade), but projection systems still very much like him.
Ultimately, there's a very real possibility that Varsho is going to end this season as the Jays' WAR leader (or co-leader with Bichette) with even average offense and that both Kirk/Jansen have better seasons than Moreno in 2024. People can cry about hypothetical trade value for prospects all they want (we'll never know if someone better than Varsho was available to them, so it's pointless), but I find it absurd to be harping over this deal two years later considering all of the other ACTUAL bad moves this FO has made and their rigid methods of game management that have cost this team for multiple seasons now.