YogurtProducer wrote:OakleyDokely wrote:Scase wrote:Yeah if you get good players. My point is, that if you trade Siakam for a 1st OA pick, or trade him for 3 picks in the 20's one of those is objectively a better trade than the other.
Trading for 3 picks that have a low % chance of actually playing out isn't all of a sudden a good trade because you got lucky on one of them.
Again, trading prime lebron for a SRP that turns into Jokic is a bad trade no matter how you look at it. Trading him for 5 top 5 picks that all bust is still a better trade. You can flip those top 5 picks into other good players as they have inherent value, no one is sending you anything of value for a pick in the early to late 20's.
Unless you think you can go and convince the bucks to send us Giannis for a couple early SRPs cause you know "The trade isn't bad until you see the players you draft". It's utter nonsense. Picks hold value irrespective of who is inevitably picked with them. This is not a controversial or even subjective statement.
I think a lot of people just overestimated what a 30 year old looking for 1/4 billion dollars was going to bring back.
Expecting a superstar package for a non superstar was never realistic. He isn't Lebron. His isn't that tier of player. No team was giving up a top prospect or top pick for him. The Raps were always going to get a combination of mid-late picks and B/C tier prospects unless they traded him when he was in his mid 20s. If this type of package is unacceptable, you keep him and re-sign him.
Pretty much was everyone was saying all along. People who were against trading Siakam was because they knew what the receiving package would entail.
It makes sense why there was such a group of people trying to get rid of him for so long... they thought he was going to return multiple lottery picks when that was never feasible. If it were - I would have signed up to trade him years ago.
If you look at most of these deals involving allstars or near allstars, including the ones made by teams like UTA, OKC, BRK etc -- they're mostly getting back projected mid-late picks in return. Maybe something weird happens and a contending team underachieves and you get lucky when a pick or two end up in the lottery, but no team is knowingly giving up a top 5-10 pick or potential superstar prospect. The teams trading the allstar are typically getting back picks from contenders who are good to great teams and they're basically hoping these teams fail, like the Raps will be hoping IND fails in 2026.
Whether one of the deals works out in your favor will depend on how well you draft and whether you get some luck by the other team sucking for some reason.