mcmurphy wrote:CoP wrote:I took a screenshot of the survey results the night before Game 1 of this series:
Based on the percentages of each result in that survey, the RealGM GB predicted that there would be a 67.3% chance that the Nuggets would win the series. Also, the most popular choice was Nuggets in 5.
RealGM GB prediction grade:
mmmh...
the RealGM prediction of Nuggets win was of 80% not 67%
Yeah, I did it a slightly different way where I factored in the number of games each group thought each team would win and the percentage of each of those answers, and then did the calculations from there. That said, I went back and checked my numbers and they were off. It was 68.6% not 67.3%.
As an extreme example, if 51% of respondents said they thought the Nuggets would win 4-3, and 49% said they thought the Lakers would win 4-0, then on average the board would have been saying that they thought the Lakers would win more games than the Nuggets. I'm not sure that's even the right or wrong way to go about it - just different. More like gambling odds, maybe.
Probably best to just add up the percentages like you did lol