dice wrote:TheJordanRule wrote:dice wrote:i said it first, but here ya go:
https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/40052203/should-teams-trade-nfl-draft-lessons-deals-2024-class-winners-losers
"There's one more thorny problem: How should we value future picks? The common trope is to suggest devaluing future picks by one round per year, although I'm not sure that plays out as often in practice as is suggested. (Nobody was offering teams a 2026 first-round pick for their third-rounder last weekend.) From a team perspective, there's no reason current picks should be worth more than future selections; the focus on present value is a product of impatience by general managers who have their jobs riding on the line."
and also by GMs whose jobs AREN'T in immediate danger (poles) but get suckered by opposition GMs who reference the fraudulent "rule"
Is it about impatience or about increasing the championship window right into next season?
could be either! but the bears championship window is certainly not confined to next season (IF the team is actually a contender next season - a defensive regression from the turnover machine at end of last season is a likelihood, as it was in 2019). as things look now the window should only be expanding BEYOND this seasonAlso, Booker fell.
he did. probably for a reason. the bears valued him more in line with prognosticators than what other teams did. see the "sure, but my team..." section in the article i provided
and even if he IS a legit 3rd round talent, that doesn't explain why poles took a freaking punter in the 4th over him! i don't recall anyone here or in the media advocating for that weird move. despite the bears having a poor punterWe're at the place where we are because of him. Why not respect it?
i'm not going to rehash this, but we're in the optimistic place we are because we have caleb and, to a much lesser extent, odunze. elite talent playing on huge bargain contracts
we have caleb because...
1) poles held onto roquan too long, leading to his starring role in a win over the texans, nearly costing us the #1 pick...but was bailed out by a miracle ending in a season-ender houston inexplicably tried to win (thanks lovie!)
2) poles chose justin fields over bryce and CJ, a reasonable but ultimately incorrect decision. poles and the panthers then made a perfectly reasonable trade from both sides, which it just so happens the panthers lost dreadfully due to bryce and the team being unexpectedly awful (miracle #2). although the end results of the trade might still be open to substantial historical revision given that poles reportedly passed on NEXT year's panthers #1 pick in favor of a WR 1 year into his new contract. now, DJ moore was terrific last season (i though he deserved pro bowl). but if that panthers pick ends up at or near the top again...
we have odunze because the bears pitifully underperformed in the first half of the year (bad offseason/early season prep? poles was at least partially responsible for the eberflus hire). then got lucky in the draft (thanks harbaugh!) despite the panicky sweat addition potentially costing them draft position
so the real question is "why not as a fan just enjoy the reality that the bears (and poles) benefitted from off the charts luck?" poles's grade should be based on how he navigates his incredible good fortune way more than the role he had in making it happen. and thus far i think he's made short-sighted decisions toward that objective (mainly trading picks for established market value performers rather than simply doing the hard evaluation/negotiation work in free agency and saving the picks). he seems to have abandoned the initial long-term planning approach that resulted in his good fortune in favor of instant gratification. claypool, sweat, allen, now booker...
If having young guys on rookie contracts is so valuable, why do most SB winning teams have more veteran squads? I don't know that for a fact, but I would guess that it is true. So at some point, you do want veterans, because they are better at winning football games than young guys are.
So if the Bears think their window of opportunity is now, it makes plenty of sense to at least have some balance on the roster between young guys and veterans.