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Miami Heat Offseason Thread vol. 1: Post Mortem

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Re: Miami Heat Offseason Thread vol. 1: Post Mortem 

Post#1221 » by Beenie » Wed May 8, 2024 8:54 pm

DayofMourning wrote:If Philly was open to do 3 firsts for JB, Id be down. Thats a good return for 35 year old JB.

Tbh, he and Embiid will likely miss 100 games combined a year. Picks should be in the teens.


You’d be down for less than that so it seems

Watching these Titos run around like headless chickens without the benefit of an alpha sounds like horrible television to me lol
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Re: Miami Heat Offseason Thread vol. 1: Post Mortem 

Post#1222 » by unowen85 » Wed May 8, 2024 9:01 pm

Quite frankly, the decision on whether to give Butler the two year extension is simple. Does the front office think they can, by trading Jimmy, assemble a better team that has a higher chance to compete for a championship during the next three seasons using the assets we get for Butler, draft picks we currently have, and internal development from current players?

And to be honest, I don’t think they can. I don’t think Riley is ready to give up on the Butler era.
For a long time it gave me nightmares,witnessing an injustice like that.It’s a constant reminder of just how unfair this world can be.I can still hear them taunting him, Silly Rabbit tricks are for kids.I mean why couldn’t they just give him some cereal?
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Re: Miami Heat Offseason Thread vol. 1: Post Mortem 

Post#1223 » by Beenie » Wed May 8, 2024 9:04 pm

VaDe255 wrote:I don't think they are extending Jimmy.

Extending him for another year screws up the cap in 26/27 season. 2 max contracts and then also extensions of Niko, JJJ will be due. There is just no way you want a 37 year old Jimmy on a max that year.

Jimmy is human, requesting an extension and getting denied will affect him and if things do not work out this can get ugly.

The best course of action for the franchise and for Jimmy is to simply trade him (get him to a place where he has a real shot at winning a ring) and get smth. in return.
No matter what chairs you reshuffle on this Jimmy/Bam Titanic, it will sink.


Likeliest scenario begins with Mia first waiting to see who might become available on the trade market to pair next to Jimmy n Bam.

Hypothetically, if an impactful player does become available and Mia emerges as a viable destination, and a trade comes to fruition, that’s gonna incentivize the team to grant Jimmy his contract extension.
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Re: Miami Heat Offseason Thread vol. 1: Post Mortem 

Post#1224 » by AirP. » Wed May 8, 2024 9:15 pm

IceColdCubano wrote:
AirP. wrote:
IceColdCubano wrote:
Um nobody afraid of a 37 year old Jimmy, if he leaves in 2 years hed be a shell of himself, id be like getting upset at Kyle Lowry in Philly right now.

Spoiler:
So, you think Lowry and Butler work on keeping their bodies in tip top shape? You expect he'll be a lesser player but how far will his game fall off from a player who's in great shape and his games is built on strength and BBIQ, in the last 2 seasons at age 33 and 34 Butler had his best TS% and ORTG seasons of his career, I'm trying to figure out how far you think he'll drop off in 3 season, to a backup, a starter, an above average starter or star. I think he drops no further than an above average starter and if he wanted to, probably could go to age 40 as a rotational player if not still good enough to be a starter.

I believe as long as Butler's putting in the same amount of work in off the court, he's not going to decline much at all in the next few years. If he can give a team anything near 20 ppg on above .580 or higher TS% and 120+ ORTG (which all are drop offs from the last few years) you still have a very good player on your roster.

Here's a list of players this year that did what I suspect Butler (declining) will be able to do the next few years but yes, injuries are a risk. Sorted by PPG. Also, the taking ~20 games off has to be reduced, if you can't play more games there is no way Miami should feel comfortable extending him to the amount he wants.


Spoiler:

Code: Select all

+-----------------------+---+----+-----+-----+----+----+----+----+-----+-----+----+----+---------+
|Player                 |Age|Team|Games|TSPCT|FGA |PPG |APG |RPG |2PT% |3pt% |ORTG|DRTG|NetRating|
+-----------------------+---+----+-----+-----+----+----+----+----+-----+-----+----+----+---------+
|Joel Embiid            |29 |PHI |39   |0.644|21.8|34.7|5.6 |11  |0.556|0.388|124 |109 |15       |
|Luka Dončić            |24 |DAL |70   |0.617|23.6|33.9|9.8 |9.2 |0.573|0.382|122 |113 |9        |
|Giannis Antetokounmpo  |29 |MIL |73   |0.649|18.8|30.4|6.5 |11.5|0.645|0.274|126 |112 |14       |
|Shai Gilgeous-Alexander|25 |OKC |75   |0.636|19.8|30.1|6.2 |5.5 |0.576|0.353|129 |110 |19       |
|Jalen Brunson          |27 |NYK |77   |0.592|21.4|28.7|6.7 |3.6 |0.516|0.401|124 |117 |7        |
|Devin Booker           |27 |PHO |68   |0.611|19.2|27.1|6.9 |4.5 |0.552|0.364|124 |117 |7        |
|Jayson Tatum           |25 |BOS |74   |0.604|19.3|26.9|4.9 |8.1 |0.542|0.376|121 |111 |10       |
|Nikola Jokić           |28 |DEN |79   |0.65 |17.9|26.4|9   |12.4|0.626|0.359|131 |108 |23       |
|Kyrie Irving           |31 |DAL |58   |0.608|19.5|25.6|5.2 |5   |0.548|0.411|122 |116 |6        |
|Anthony Davis          |30 |LAL |76   |0.621|16.9|24.7|3.5 |12.6|0.582|0.271|124 |109 |15       |
|DeMar DeRozan          |34 |CHI |79   |0.584|17.2|24  |5.3 |4.3 |0.509|0.333|122 |118 |4        |
|Kawhi Leonard          |32 |LAC |68   |0.626|17.1|23.7|3.6 |6.1 |0.569|0.417|124 |114 |10       |
|Lauri Markkanen        |26 |UTA |55   |0.631|16.2|23.2|2   |8.2 |0.559|0.399|128 |120 |8        |
|Pascal Siakam          |29 |IND |41   |0.602|15.8|21.3|3.7 |7.8 |0.58 |0.386|123 |119 |4        |
|Jimmy Butler           |34 |MIA |60   |0.626|13.2|20.8|5   |5.3 |0.519|0.414|129 |113 |16       |
|Tyrese Haliburton      |23 |IND |69   |0.605|15.2|20.1|10.9|3.9 |0.595|0.364|129 |119 |10       |
|Kristaps Porziņģis     |28 |BOS |57   |0.647|13.2|20.1|2   |7.2 |0.606|0.375|128 |109 |19       |
+-----------------------+---+----+-----+-----+----+----+----+----+-----+-----+----+----+---------+


Proven by age in the history of the NBA, the moment a player hits 34 with the exemption of some that are outliers like Lebron, Steph, players production plummets significantly as its not smooth ascension downward. For someone who struggles to stay healthy on the court like Jimmy this becomes even far more difficult as he ages, this year proved what it begins to look like, as much as Butler would like to be the guy who wills teams to victory this will begin to be less and less probable, percentages our down substantially, visually you can see he doesn't have his lift, Jimmy has never been blocked more in any one year than this year, and his ability to score in the paint whether from FG% or Efficiency saw drop to comparable to middle of the league average as if he was a role player. It's evident why he is shooting more and more three's far more than ever as he knows his body is failing him and is trying to find a way to stay productive. We saw it in most of the playoff race clinching games against competition, he was our 3-4th most productive player making the most money out any one on the team. Additionally looking at our major loses or key games the player who was responsible for the majority of them in his non-production was Jimmy Butler himself scoring 12-14 points going scoreless in an entire half, not being engaged in either defense or offense. His Basketball IQ & Strength can only get him so far when the difference in speed and vertical leap on the younger players just overlap you greatly.


Things change, like technology, sports medicine and a better understanding of the human body that can be utilized to prolong a career if the player is willing to put in the work, throughout my years I've heard ex-players talk about knowing when their time was up and something that would seem to come up a good amount is that they didn't feel like putting in the work that was needed anymore, sometimes it's because of their families, sometimes it's because they have aches and pains and were just tired of fighting through them on a daily and some players just simply didn't feel like putting in the work anymore. As long as Butler keeps putting in the work, I don't see a big drop-off coming, a smaller one sure since I think he could be putting up 25+ points a game if he really wanted to, that's like 2 extra shots per half?

For as much as people talk the rise of the younger players, the league on average got older for the first time in 5 years, the average age had been 26.1 years old, this year it went up to 26.4 years old but that may have happened because there are a higher percentage of older guys able to hit 3s now to stay in the league.

I will say that Butler has taken too many games off, both games he's missed and games he's suited up for and gave a piss poor effort, that absolutely has to change. Both Butler and the Heat want to win a championship. It has to be crystal clear now to both parties that Miami has to have a better seeding for the playoffs, Butler was in complete control of the last extension. It's not that way this time.

He sandbagged a bunch of games this year which pissed off fans and the FO and still had near career highs in efficiency and ORTG while still putting up 20+ ppg. If he were just to give good effort in most of those sandbagged games he may have had career highs in those categories. Do I expect 56 game outbursts at 37, probably not but I could see him putting up 30-point games here and there in the playoffs. Who knows, maybe Miami will finally acquire a another high level player in Butler's 7th or 8th season, because it sure didn't happen in his first 5.

I'm really curious of what types of stats do you see Butler putting up in his age 37 year which is 3 seasons from now. If you think he's out of the league, fine, if you think he's at the end of the bench cool, I'm just interested in how far you think he'll fall.
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Re: Miami Heat Offseason Thread vol. 1: Post Mortem 

Post#1225 » by DayofMourning » Wed May 8, 2024 9:20 pm

Beenie wrote:
DayofMourning wrote:If Philly was open to do 3 firsts for JB, Id be down. Thats a good return for 35 year old JB.

Tbh, he and Embiid will likely miss 100 games combined a year. Picks should be in the teens.


You’d be down for less than that so it seems

Watching these Titos run around like headless chickens without the benefit of an alpha sounds like horrible television to me lol


Im of the mind that 35 year old oft injured Butler isnt the superstar we need.

I feel like being available is pretty important. He plays half the time. Hard to look at that with a straight face and expect results.
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Re: Miami Heat Offseason Thread vol. 1: Post Mortem 

Post#1226 » by EMC5466 » Wed May 8, 2024 9:22 pm

Riley is not going to extend a broken down 35-year-old. Jimmy is going to be traded.
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Re: Miami Heat Offseason Thread vol. 1: Post Mortem 

Post#1227 » by AirP. » Wed May 8, 2024 9:23 pm

Beenie wrote:
VaDe255 wrote:I don't think they are extending Jimmy.

Extending him for another year screws up the cap in 26/27 season. 2 max contracts and then also extensions of Niko, JJJ will be due. There is just no way you want a 37 year old Jimmy on a max that year.

Jimmy is human, requesting an extension and getting denied will affect him and if things do not work out this can get ugly.

The best course of action for the franchise and for Jimmy is to simply trade him (get him to a place where he has a real shot at winning a ring) and get smth. in return.
No matter what chairs you reshuffle on this Jimmy/Bam Titanic, it will sink.


Likeliest scenario begins with Mia first waiting to see who might become available on the trade market to pair next to Jimmy n Bam.

Hypothetically, if an impactful player does become available and Mia emerges as a viable destination, and a trade comes to fruition, that’s gonna incentivize the team to grant Jimmy his contract extension.

Another reason Morey could be the one floating out Miami possibly looking to trade Butler, to get P.George to not look to push his way to Miami since it might just be Bam there.
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Re: Miami Heat Offseason Thread vol. 1: Post Mortem 

Post#1228 » by greg4012 » Wed May 8, 2024 9:48 pm

unowen85 wrote:Quite frankly, the decision on whether to give Butler the two year extension is simple. Does the front office think they can, by trading Jimmy, assemble a better team that has a higher chance to compete for a championship during the next three seasons using the assets we get for Butler, draft picks we currently have, and internal development from current players?

And to be honest, I don’t think they can. I don’t think Riley is ready to give up on the Butler era.


There's no possibility of an in-between scenario with 2 years left on his current contract?
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Re: Miami Heat Offseason Thread vol. 1: Post Mortem 

Post#1229 » by twix2500 » Wed May 8, 2024 9:58 pm

Since Butler is saying all the right thing for now. Gonna assume he will be here. Thus a player to keep an eye on is not only Paul George but Khris Middleton. He is coming up on a player option next season and he will be 33 yrs old. The bucks have 110 mill committed to Lillard and Giannis next season. Middleton gonna want to get one more good contract.
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Re: Miami Heat Offseason Thread vol. 1: Post Mortem 

Post#1230 » by SoFlaKingReal » Wed May 8, 2024 10:01 pm

Keep in mind that Butlers two year extension only adds one year of guaranteed money. The first year of the extension will replace his player option.
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Re: Miami Heat Offseason Thread vol. 1: Post Mortem 

Post#1231 » by 3ammy3uck3ts » Wed May 8, 2024 10:06 pm

Let’s see it then Jimmy, actions speak louder than words. Until then you’re just writing checks you can’t cash
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Re: Miami Heat Offseason Thread vol. 1: Post Mortem 

Post#1232 » by 3ammy3uck3ts » Wed May 8, 2024 10:08 pm

Get Jimmy Bam and Spo another star, fill the roster out with proven vets and let’s ride. I’ll die on that hill, they’ve shown us the bums they can carry deep into the postseason already. That star needs to be a high powered offensive player.
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Re: Miami Heat Offseason Thread vol. 1: Post Mortem 

Post#1233 » by 3ammy3uck3ts » Wed May 8, 2024 10:09 pm

Read on Twitter
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Re: Miami Heat Offseason Thread vol. 1: Post Mortem 

Post#1234 » by Beenie » Wed May 8, 2024 10:15 pm

AirP. wrote:
Beenie wrote:
VaDe255 wrote:I don't think they are extending Jimmy.

Extending him for another year screws up the cap in 26/27 season. 2 max contracts and then also extensions of Niko, JJJ will be due. There is just no way you want a 37 year old Jimmy on a max that year.

Jimmy is human, requesting an extension and getting denied will affect him and if things do not work out this can get ugly.

The best course of action for the franchise and for Jimmy is to simply trade him (get him to a place where he has a real shot at winning a ring) and get smth. in return.
No matter what chairs you reshuffle on this Jimmy/Bam Titanic, it will sink.


Likeliest scenario begins with Mia first waiting to see who might become available on the trade market to pair next to Jimmy n Bam.

Hypothetically, if an impactful player does become available and Mia emerges as a viable destination, and a trade comes to fruition, that’s gonna incentivize the team to grant Jimmy his contract extension.

Another reason Morey could be the one floating out Miami possibly looking to trade Butler, to get P.George to not look to push his way to Miami since it might just be Bam there.


If George leaves LA, just out of due diligence, I have to assume that his agent will be in contact will all possible destinations especially Mia.

I don’t think Morey’s gamesmanship would prevent that from happening
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Re: Miami Heat Offseason Thread vol. 1: Post Mortem 

Post#1235 » by SoFlaKingReal » Wed May 8, 2024 10:17 pm

3ammy3uck3ts wrote:
Read on Twitter


Rinse and repeat. Mitchell isn’t a free agent. He will go wherever Cleveland sends him, they may just keep him. At the end of the day, Mitchell would probably re-sign with 10 teams or so.
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Re: Miami Heat Offseason Thread vol. 1: Post Mortem 

Post#1236 » by DayofMourning » Wed May 8, 2024 10:36 pm

Rapaz as the Cleveland GM should be something to monitor.
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Re: Miami Heat Offseason Thread vol. 1: Post Mortem 

Post#1237 » by 3ammy3uck3ts » Wed May 8, 2024 10:40 pm

SoFlaKingReal wrote:
3ammy3uck3ts wrote:
Read on Twitter


Rinse and repeat. Mitchell isn’t a free agent. He will go wherever Cleveland sends him, they may just keep him. At the end of the day, Mitchell would probably re-sign with 10 teams or so.


Time will tell, he’s going to have a massive say in where he wants to go whether Heat fans want to deny it or not
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Re: Miami Heat Offseason Thread vol. 1: Post Mortem 

Post#1238 » by 3ammy3uck3ts » Wed May 8, 2024 10:40 pm

DayofMourning wrote:Rapaz as the Cleveland GM should be something to monitor.


That’s definitely the one to be this summer
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Re: Miami Heat Offseason Thread vol. 1: Post Mortem 

Post#1239 » by powerball1373 » Wed May 8, 2024 10:49 pm

DayofMourning wrote:
Beenie wrote:
DayofMourning wrote:If Philly was open to do 3 firsts for JB, Id be down. Thats a good return for 35 year old JB.

Tbh, he and Embiid will likely miss 100 games combined a year. Picks should be in the teens.


You’d be down for less than that so it seems

Watching these Titos run around like headless chickens without the benefit of an alpha sounds like horrible television to me lol


Im of the mind that 35 year old oft injured Butler isnt the superstar we need.

I feel like being available is pretty important. He plays half the time. Hard to look at that with a straight face and expect results.


Agreed. I don't think you can win a championship with prime Jimmy Butler as your #1 player, unless the other team has a freak injury or something, so how TF can we expect that with an old and injury-prone JB? Unless we're able to land someone clearly better than him (Durant?) to where he'd be the #2, I'd rather just move on completely. Someone like DBish not gonna move the needle at all.
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Re: Miami Heat Offseason Thread vol. 1: Post Mortem 

Post#1240 » by 3ammy3uck3ts » Wed May 8, 2024 11:02 pm

powerball1373 wrote:
DayofMourning wrote:
Beenie wrote:
You’d be down for less than that so it seems

Watching these Titos run around like headless chickens without the benefit of an alpha sounds like horrible television to me lol


Im of the mind that 35 year old oft injured Butler isnt the superstar we need.

I feel like being available is pretty important. He plays half the time. Hard to look at that with a straight face and expect results.


Agreed. I don't think you can win a championship with prime Jimmy Butler as your #1 player, unless the other team has a freak injury or something, so how TF can we expect that with an old and injury-prone JB? Unless we're able to land someone clearly better than him (Durant?) to where he'd be the #2, I'd rather just move on completely. Someone like DBish not gonna move the needle at all.


How does Mitchell not move the needle though? Practically every team he’s been on has finished with HCA in at least the first playoff round, better positioning alone moves the needle for us. Hes a high level playoff performer as well averaging 28-5-5 for his career. Hes the exact kind of offensive talent we’ve missed next to Jimmy and Bam in these deep playoff runs
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