VaDe255 wrote:AirP. wrote:I'm having a hard time figuring out how Miami brain trust can expect its offense to become better with both Rozier and Herro in the starting lineup, instead of having 1 low efficient higher volume scorer, they'll have 2.
This season Miami had a team TS% of .578 and a calculated ORTG of 114.
Herro and Rozier pulled Miami's offense down even though they scored points, they just made the team less efficient on offense.
Heat TS% .578, ORTG 114
Herro TS% .558, ORTG 108
Rozier TS% .531, ORTG 111
* Rozier's stats are just in Miami and his first few weeks without practices pulled his number way down.
Rozier
March TS% .542, ORTG 111
April TS% .642, ORTG 119 <- Only 5 games.
I guess it's possible that with more on court positions being a threat could make everyone have easier shots overall and could make some players more efficient, but I wouldn't hold my breath on that. I have to think one of them has to be moved (or put to 6th man like Riley mentioned) and since they gave up a 1st for Rozier, I highly doubt they'd move him, it would have to be looked at as a horrible trade, not only giving up a ton of expiring cap space but a 1st rounder too.
I prefer NBA.com advaced stats or EPM (dunksandthrees). BBref makes some weird assumptions that basically make their numbers deviated from most metric.
Tyler is a fine player and he's still very young, he'll improve whether it is here or somewhere else, we'll see.
Not a fan of NBA.com's advanced stats like ORTG or DRTG because they're not advanced at all, the formula is ORtg = 100 * (PProd / TotPoss), so basically everyone on the floor gets the same rating even if say... Butler steals the ball 3 times in a row and scores 6 easy buckets everyone gets 100% of those points, or Herro or someone like Lillard hits 3 3s in a row by just bringing down the ball and jacking up a 3, everyone on the floor gets 100% of those points. Basketball-Reference actually takes BOTH the individual's stats and the team's stats to try to figure out how many points a player is actually contributing per 100 possessions.
I'm not sure about dunksandthrees, I do hear they remove the garbage time stats when a game is out of hand near the end of games when players aren't putting in near as much effort. I do think this is a better representation of what players are doing vs the NBA's simple ORTG and DRTGS.
You can see the formula
here.
I get Herro will only be 25 next season but he'll be in year 6 in the NBA. He's had 5 professional off-seasons to get better and he's putting up about the same type of stats other than shooting more. During the regular season defenses don't play as tough nor gameplan all that much each night like they do in the playoffs which is why Herro looks much worse in the playoffs. If you're happy with him dropping 20-23 points on 18-20 shots a night in the regular season cool, but that's not going to translate to the playoffs.
The biggest reason why people are finally coming around to maybe Herro should be a scoring 6th man is because he'd be going against more backup players and taking fewer shots away from the starters.
If Herro wasn't a negative on defense, I may even be fine with his lower efficiency as a volume shooter, but he's bad, really bad on defense. Robinson use to be just as bad, but he's gotten better especially in team defense, but maybe him being humbled not only losing his starting position but falling completely out of the rotation made him take defense more seriously. There's no reason why Miami can't get good defensive effort from everyone on the court, this also includes Butler needing to do more vs his coast mode.