I'd argue McGee did maximize his potential.doclinkin wrote:Dat2U wrote:
Matisse Thybulle is an elite defender. One of the best in the league. Would you draft him with a top 5 pick?
If your predicting the 1% percentile development for him where he turns his weaknesses into a strength and becomes an all-star or even franchise player ... then we'll have to agree to disagree. Nothing on his film says he's going to be Butler or Kawhi. It's a projection that doesn't appear realistic.
I don't think I'm saying he'll be Jimmy Butler. I'm saying he has room for improvement in the areas where his game falls short. Yes. But has shown the aptitude, work ethic, frame, and track record to improve in that area, with nothing preventing him from doing so. Like bButler, I expect him to consistently improve over his career. Where that tops out is anyone's guess.
If your thought is that he lacks offensive skills entirely, cannot improve, and will only be a defensive sub his entire career, I'm willing to bet you are way wrong on that. When selecting a player for upside, you want the balance of athleticism, length for position, frame to build strength, AND BBIQ, instincts, competitiveness, to arrive at a conclusion of how likely and possible it is for a player to achieve their upside. When you have a young player with a track record that shows good marks in all of the above, its a good bet they won't stay static, but will continue that growth. So what is the top end of that growth curve and can they reach it?
I think people get too hung up on their opinion of what a draft position is 'worth'. Top pick. 1-5. Whatever. I think it is more a question of when you look back at their career, will people say this guy is one of the top 5 best players in this draft? Is this a player likely to improve. Do they have the foundation to build on. Are they going to max out on their progression or is there something preventing them from doing so.
You can cite Johnny Davis. But Davis measured small, was never going to add strength or length, was an undersized high-usage low-efficiency 2-guard with obvious flaws-- and aside from hustle on defense and hard work, did nothing in particular unless he had the ball. He was never going to be an auxiliary glue guy. Even if he added range he still would need to add playmaking, length, offball skills, etc. pretty much everything. Plus height.
Whereas Castle has everything he would need to succeed as a superior role-player coming into the league, and only needs to show the offensive aggression he displayed in highschool in head to head match-ups against Collier. And a shooting coach. He has shown the aptitude to adjust to what his team needed, on a squad that had high volume attackers, and an outside gunning specialist. His job on UConn was not to put up shots that Spencer and Karaban got off the screens he set. His job was to get them open. Cut to the basket on backdoor attacks. Feed the post and play a 2-man game with Clingan. In short order he fit in with an established team and role, then amplified that role and improved over the season. When stakes were highest he played his best. The only way to tell if a player will improve is if they have shown an ability to improve. Castle did. Peaked when it mattered most. And won. If it's me I bet on him being able to continue that trend. Yes the top end of that trend is Jimmy Butler (not Kawhi, who is a freak of nature with a handspan bigger than most Centers). But if you land a guy who tops out as a longer more athletic Marcus Smart. In this draft. I'm thinking that is probably one of the top 5 best players in this draft. And less likely to flame out as a wasted pick on a guy who will never live up to his potential. I am banking on Castle to realize that potential. Based on his history.
If JaVale McGee showed BBIQ and work ethic and a rage to compete as well as the humility to fit in to a scheme and constantly improve, he could have been a HOF player. A Kareem level of superlatives. He didn't and even in college was noted as kinda flaky. His physical make-up was better than Alex Sarr. We will never again see a guy dunk 3 balls at once in a dunk contest. We will never see a guy dunk on 2 baskets at the same time. His career did not live out to his potential. Few do. I think Castle does. Based on the foundation and trends of what he has shown so far.
Work ethic is one factor on upside. It is not the sole factor.
I think McGee and Kwame Brown both did well with what they had. Everyone isn't motivated with the same idea of success. What others see as their potential might not be what they aspire to. I don't think McGee aspired to be great. Another factor is aptitude. Some people are bad at math. Others can't dance. Just because a player has standout measurables and athleticism, it doesn't mean they have the aptitude to successfully apply skill on the court.
McGee was briefly out of the league between Philadelphia and Denver. He came back and played on championship teams. Kwame played 14 years. Neither guy was sharp. IMO. Both knew enough to show up over time.
doclinkin, sorry for hijacking your thread. I totally agree with you. McGee didn't achieve
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