2024 NBA DRAFT THREAD 3

[DG88]

2 more days until we know we give up our pick to SA this year or next year

[Consequence]

I'm cool with Holland but interested to see his measurements - his Ignite film mostly makes him seem like the same type of build as RJ, more of a big shooting guard than a proper forward in defensive capability.

[aminiaturebuddha]

Not sure if people are familiar with this tool, but this draft tool compares historical draft prospects with this year's draft (college ref stats only).

https://nbadraftcomp.herokuapp.com/advanced/

I ran the advanced stats one for Oso Igahdaro and he had a 90% similarity score to Xavier Tillman. Those two are the same guy, I swear!

Stephon Castle has a 91% similarity score to Keldon Johnson which I think makes a ton of sense.

Dalton Knecht with the 85% similarity score to Doug McDermott is another one I favor for his realistic archetype.

After the Combine measurements, it is cool to run the physical comp tool.

It's interesting, but I'd take it with a grain of salt. Just for fun, I ran the comps for a few of my favourite players in this draft.

The first one I did was Tristan da Silva and one of the top comps that came up was Ochai Agbaji at 87.3% which I think is a very weird comp considering da Silva is about 4 inches taller, and Ochai's big question mark is his shooting, whereas the one thing that da Silva has proven he can do is shoot well (3 consecutive seasons of around 40% from 3). I'm not sure how they're similar at all.

[REJECTEDBYCLARK]

https://deanondraft.substack.com/p/is-isaiah-collier-worthy-of-1-overall

Done in December when Collier was ranked #1.

Essentially says Collier's archetype is terrible for the NBA. He only had a 4.2bpm as well so I'm not touching him in the 1st.

It's funny because all the big movement evaluators love Collier and think he's a top 3-5 pick. There are guys who rank players solely on potential for advantage creation but the glaring issue with this is that they inevitably highly rank tons of busts because nothing else is taken into consideration.

Dean on the other hand puts more weight into length, feel and production and can sometimes dismiss space creation a bit more.

I think he's spot on with Collier though. Could become a great player on treadmill team a la Derozan and bottleneck the team's success due to his decision making (think of how Demar just jacked up tons of difficult 2's and didn't defend well w/ Raps). Some guy was trying to sell me on Collier as capable of evolving into a pass-first PG and I asked him if he really believes that Collier will be willing to limit his FGA with the ball in his hands all game when he already has a score-first tendency. Collier just seems like the kind of guy who will want to jack up 18 shots a night and is more of a bulldozing scorer than conscientious floor general.

I think he's worth a gamble where you keep him on a short leash and will just be ready to move on after rookie contract if he has poor tendencies instead of doubling down on him. But if a team is super high on him and gives him a long leash and doubles down on his archetype should his tendencies persist after 3-4 years, they could just be shooting themselves in the foot in the long run.

[REJECTEDBYCLARK]

Also I think we're at a point where if your argument is to draft a guy like that strictly as an asset and then just trade him when his value is high, there aren't many really dumb teams anymore given how much player evaluation has evolved w/ the advanced stats era. So there's no guarantee you find a partner for such a player and if you do, you'll probably get low returns on him anyway like Raps got for Siakam for instance.

[Dalek]

Not sure if people are familiar with this tool, but this draft tool compares historical draft prospects with this year's draft (college ref stats only).

https://nbadraftcomp.herokuapp.com/advanced/

I ran the advanced stats one for Oso Igahdaro and he had a 90% similarity score to Xavier Tillman. Those two are the same guy, I swear!

Stephon Castle has a 91% similarity score to Keldon Johnson which I think makes a ton of sense.

Dalton Knecht with the 85% similarity score to Doug McDermott is another one I favor for his realistic archetype.

After the Combine measurements, it is cool to run the physical comp tool.

It's interesting, but I'd take it with a grain of salt. Just for fun, I ran the comps for a few of my favourite players in this draft.

The first one I did was Tristan da Silva and one of the top comps that came up was Ochai Agbaji at 87.3% which I think is a very weird comp considering da Silva is about 4 inches taller, and Ochai's big question mark is his shooting, whereas the one thing that da Silva has proven he can do is shoot well (3 consecutive seasons of around 40% from 3). I'm not sure how they're similar at all.

Probably not too similar. It is just taking online database numbers of draft prospects and averaging them out so there will be some weird comps.The tool is looking at either per40 numbers or advanced stats or body metrics not everything all at once.

Ochai was a 41% shooter in his final year at Kansas. There is a body metrics comp tool, but we have to wait until after the Combine results to see these prospects.

The guy who made the tool made this interesting post about Bub Carrington's closest comp:

Read on Twitter

?t=km8xcwG4ltNv0G3m3XzmIQ&s=19

[Dalek]

Read on Twitter

This post shocked me a bit and really makes me more of a KJ Simpson backer at 31. This guy pulled dribble jumper data which is a marker for self creation and he really stands out.

Reed Sheppard has elite percentages but KJ nearly doubled his shot totals and is still over 40%. Is the one inch of difference all that much between these two?

[Mark_83]

Read on Twitter

This post shocked me a bit and really makes me more of a KJ Simpson backer at 31. This guy pulled dribble jumper data which is a marker for self creation and he really stands out.

Reed Sheppard has elite percentages but KJ nearly doubled his shot totals and is still over 40%. Is the one inch of difference all that much between these two?

McCain and Simpson stand out the most from that list. McCain is just an elite shooter period, but Simpson has come a long way for a guy who hadn't shot over 30% from three any time before.

Carter is also noteworthy because he took a lot of dribble threes, which makes his 38% three point shooting look better in context. His finishing off the dribble however overall could use some work.

[Rapsfan07]

Read on Twitter

This post shocked me a bit and really makes me more of a KJ Simpson backer at 31. This guy pulled dribble jumper data which is a marker for self creation and he really stands out.

Reed Sheppard has elite percentages but KJ nearly doubled his shot totals and is still over 40%. Is the one inch of difference all that much between these two?

McCain and Simpson stand out the most from that list. McCain is just an elite shooter period, but Simpson has come a long way for a guy who hadn't shot over 30% from three any time before.

Carter is also noteworthy because he took a lot of dribble threes, which makes his 38% three point shooting look better in context. His finishing off the dribble however overall could use some work.

Welcome to the KJ Simpson bandwagon. I really think that if we miss out on a PG at #19, he should undoubtedly be the pick at #31. Dude's going to be a steal.

[Dalek]

Welcome to the KJ Simpson bandwagon. I really think that if we miss out on a PG at #19, he should undoubtedly be the pick at #31. Dude's going to be a steal.

I have been following him this season and the Buffalos in general because I liked so many of their prospects. While Tristan was their leader, I felt that KJ was their engine. Now, I am waiting for measurements. If he is a legit 6'2" or bigger it will swing a huge difference because I am terrified of drafting the next Malachi Flynn. That said, his numbers and pullup game pop off the page.

[Rapsfan07]

Welcome to the KJ Simpson bandwagon. I really think that if we miss out on a PG at #19, he should undoubtedly be the pick at #31. Dude's going to be a steal.

I have been following him this season and the Buffalos in general because I liked so many of their prospects. While Tristan was their leader, I felt that KJ was their engine. Now, I am waiting for measurements. If he is a legit 6'2" or bigger it will swing a huge difference because I am terrified of drafting the next Malachi Flynn. That said, his numbers and pullup game pop off the page.

Ah nice nice.

Yeah for real man. I hear you loud and clear on that Malachi Flynn thing though. Would love for him to actually be bigger but knowing how these things go, they're usually smaller than listed.

[Thaddy]

Simspon is going to be a 22 year old rookie but the stats look good. He seems to be more of a scoring guard so he'd be an undersized 2. I have the opinion that we'll be seeing more twin tower line up builds in the NBA to combat the forward play initiators. A small guard with burst and range would expose lateral athleticism deficiencies.

7 foot defensive big / rim protector
7 foot mobile / switchable / stretch big
Point forward / defensive safety
Combo guard (leaning towards scoring)
Combo guard (leaning towards play creation for others)

The best fits for this lineup build would be players like Sarr, Filipowski, Chomche, Dillingham, Simpson, McCain, and Carter.

[UnbelievablyRAW]

I think Carlron Carrington is a sleeper drafty pick. The eye test checks out, his measurements are good and hes still really young. Only thing with him is if he'll up the passing playing with better teammates

I think a bench of Carrington/Dick/Holland/Kelly/Ware bench would be pretty good in size and scoring versatility. If we're in the position to get Sarr, it'd just be Ochai sliding into that Holland spot

[Dalek]

My take is probably not popular but I think we may draft durisic

Some people are also high on Djurisic and the tape looks pretty good. Much better looking jumper form than Topic.

Read on Twitter

[UnbelievablyRAW]

https://nbadraftcomp.herokuapp.com/advanced/?player=Reece+Beekman

[Dalek]

I think Carlron Carrington is a sleeper drafty pick. The eye test checks out, his measurements are good and hes still really young. Only thing with him is if he'll up the passing playing with better teammates

I think a bench of Carrington/Dick/Holland/Kelly/Ware bench would be pretty good in size and scoring versatility. If we're in the position to get Sarr, it'd just be Ochai sliding into that Holland spot

Carrington is a Pitt guy and Toronto has its history of bringing Pitt players so there is a chance. He has age, size and a pretty good jumper when he is on. HIs family is great (dad's a coach), and he is related to Rudy Gay so he has NBA ties. I don't think you have to worry about him deferring too much. He is a good passer, but he does love shooting the ball.

My concerns are attacking the basket and defense. His metrics are poor when you consider his size - these modern kids love to settle for jumpers. I felt like at times Jaland Lowe was the better player getting to the rim for Pitt. With Carrington, I think you need to consider having a second guard beside him because right now he is more of a combo leaning toward a shooting guard. He actually reminds me a bit of Isaiah Joe with more complimentary passing skill.

[aminiaturebuddha]

Not sure if people are familiar with this tool, but this draft tool compares historical draft prospects with this year's draft (college ref stats only).

https://nbadraftcomp.herokuapp.com/advanced/

I ran the advanced stats one for Oso Igahdaro and he had a 90% similarity score to Xavier Tillman. Those two are the same guy, I swear!

Stephon Castle has a 91% similarity score to Keldon Johnson which I think makes a ton of sense.

Dalton Knecht with the 85% similarity score to Doug McDermott is another one I favor for his realistic archetype.

After the Combine measurements, it is cool to run the physical comp tool.

It's interesting, but I'd take it with a grain of salt. Just for fun, I ran the comps for a few of my favourite players in this draft.

The first one I did was Tristan da Silva and one of the top comps that came up was Ochai Agbaji at 87.3% which I think is a very weird comp considering da Silva is about 4 inches taller, and Ochai's big question mark is his shooting, whereas the one thing that da Silva has proven he can do is shoot well (3 consecutive seasons of around 40% from 3). I'm not sure how they're similar at all.

Probably not too similar. It is just taking online database numbers of draft prospects and averaging them out so there will be some weird comps.The tool is looking at either per40 numbers or advanced stats or body metrics not everything all at once.

Ochai was a 41% shooter in his final year at Kansas. There is a body metrics comp tool, but we have to wait until after the Combine results to see these prospects.

The guy who made the tool made this interesting post about Bub Carrington's closest comp:

Read on Twitter

?t=km8xcwG4ltNv0G3m3XzmIQ&s=19

I've definitely come around on Carrington. When I first watched him I didn't see a lot of explosiveness and kind of wrote him off, but after watching him a lot more I see a bunch of translatable traits. He was inefficient at Pitt, but I think a lot of that was context driven as he didn't have much help around him.

Now I see a guy who has good skills pulling up for shots off the dribble, solid court vision, and although he makes some mistakes (as all young guys do) I actually see a lot of defensive potential. He really works hard to stay in front of his man, and with his size and length and some better coaching on technique I think he could grow to become an excellent point-of-attack defender.

He's also one of the youngest players in the draft, and will be 19 for the entirety of his rookie season. He's definitely making it onto my list of "my guys" for the draft.

[Psubs]

My take is probably not popular but I think we may draft durisic

Some people are also high on Djurisic and the tape looks pretty good. Much better looking jumper form than Topic.

Read on Twitter

It would be better to draft him with #19 and get him on the rookie contract instead of the #31 and have to negotiate more to get him to come over. Watching Nikola Jovic shooting well from outside, I guess Djurisic would be good from the same team?

Watch on YouTube

I think that Pacome Dadiet is a better prospect than Djurisic to draft at #19.

Then I still take Chomche with #31.

[Psubs]

Read on Twitter

This post shocked me a bit and really makes me more of a KJ Simpson backer at 31. This guy pulled dribble jumper data which is a marker for self creation and he really stands out.

Reed Sheppard has elite percentages but KJ nearly doubled his shot totals and is still over 40%. Is the one inch of difference all that much between these two?

Reed can dunk more but KJ's 1st step looks elite. KJ might be better value at #31.

[Psubs]

I think Carlron Carrington is a sleeper drafty pick. The eye test checks out, his measurements are good and hes still really young. Only thing with him is if he'll up the passing playing with better teammates

I think a bench of Carrington/Dick/Holland/Kelly/Ware bench would be pretty good in size and scoring versatility. If we're in the position to get Sarr, it'd just be Ochai sliding into that Holland spot

I made this point a while ago that Carrington had to step up and ended up taking long 3's and other not great shots. He is a play-maker and with better teammates he would thrive.

I'm hoping that his stock doesn't rise to high and we can draft him at #19. He's 6'5 with a 6'11 wingspan, that bodes well for finishing at the rim and defensive potential for deflections.

I would say that he's a better prospect than Killian Hayes ever was and maybe even Dyson Daniels.