winforlose wrote:shrink wrote:I will say that I expect that we will be championship contenders in 2025 as well, and owners don’t (or maybe the correct word is “shouldn’t”) get rid of the top end talent of championship contenders. It would be wonderful to keep the entire young core of Ant, Jaden, Naz and NAW, but Towns and Gobert are easily the second and third most talented, and important, pieces in a championship run. Unless we see incredible growth in Jaden, Naz and NAW next year, ownership shouldn’t cut Rudy or KAT, and that means we can’t afford to keep all of that young core.
With Ant’s supermax, we will be a second apron team next year, especially if they choose to bring back SloMo. And we will certainly be a second apron team in 2025-26, with Naz and NAW looking for big raises.
Let’s break this down a bit.
Jaden is under contract for 5 years. He is making in the 20s each year. Ant gets what approximately 40+ a year with gradual increases. NAW will probably make 15, and Naz will probably make 20-25 a year. So all in say that is 100. This means we have 60-70 or more to build a non tax team around. If you trade Karl you will look for a Sabonis for Hali type deal with a blue chip coming back. You will likely sign Rudy at a discount and that is your top 6 with another 30-40 left. Expect at least one or two vet minimum ring chasers, and hope for the development of Miller and Minott. Losing Karl will hurt, but it is hardly the end of contention. Jaden has already showed more offensive potential when given more opportunities and shots. NAW is inconsistent but could easily be our 6th man. Naz has shown tremendous growth year by year and was dropping 20+ nightly with Karl out. He also tends to player and more consistent basketball with more minutes. I wouldn’t assume losing one or both Karl and Rudy would be for nothing. I also wouldn’t assume we couldn’t retool and contend with our young core in their primes and new talent brought in to fit them more directly.
2025-26
45.7 Ant (with the 30% supermax)
24.4 Jaden
???? Naz (when he declines his $15 mil player option)
???? NAW
With the cap going up the next two years, I don’t think $25 for Naz is unreasonable, particularly since we can expect him to improve. NAW will also improve, and if he only makes the NBA average salary (MLE) $13.5, (and I expect someone will likely offer $16-17 to outbid the MLE teams), 45.7+24.4+25+13.5 = 108.6. The numbers I’m using don’t assume a 10% rise each year also, so I think $110 would be a reasonable number for keeping those four players.
We know Towns number in 2025-26 is $53.3. We can hope Rudy takes a pay cut off his $46.7 player option, and I’m hoping for $30 a year. That would be $185 for six players.
Then we have Miller and Minott for about $2.1 each. Even vet min deals are going to be around $2.5 mil, and 6 of them (for roster of 14) would be another $15 mil. We can maybe carve out a little more money on second round rookies, but likely aren’t going to be the Suns, and have six good players and a cheap, horrible bench.
Spotrac estimates the luxury threshold at $188.5, and the second apron at $208.4. Something’s got to give.