Mavs/Blazers/(Warriors?)

[jayjaysee]

THJ is negative value.

Depends who trades for him. Will be expiring

Expiring contracts haven't been valuable since the NBA limited contracts to max 5 years and 80% of NBA contracts are less than 3 years. An expiring is definitely not useful for the Blazers. They either want immediate salary relief to get under the tax or someone who can be flipped for a pick.

Even if we pretend that expirings mean nothing to Portland, which is kind of weird, the OP brings less 2024 salary to Portland than they send out. So shouldn’t have a “negative salary tax”

If you add in a couple of Portland’s vet min guys and a second or two (from Dallas or GS depending) and make it actually a 3 for 3 deal… the deal would save Portland a good amount of the salary they need to trim to get under the tax..

[tester551]

So the Warrior part of this is easily removed. I have Kleber as negative trade value but Portland not caring to pay something to dump him on GSW. So if GSW doesn't want him simply remove them. But I thought they might so...

Deal happens after draft when 25 1st comes open for Dallas


Mavs trade: THJ/Kleber/Powell/25 1st (top 1 then 25 TOR 2nd)
Mavs get: Grant

Blazers trade: Grant
Blazers get: THJ/Looney/Powell/25 DAL 1st (top 1, then 25 TOR 2nd)

GSW trades: Looney
GSW gets: Kleber

So if the Warriors stay they would do this to get a more mobile, theoretical spacer to pair with their 2nd year center.

Blazers get a first for Grant and either only have the $4M of Powell after next year or potentially $15M of Powell/Kleber

Mavs go get another forward to pair with Washington and gives them that 3rd scorer they lack. They get super expensive if they retain Kyrie beyond next year, but that's tomorrow's problem.

What is Dallas' view of Green? Would a revision like this be palatable?

Grant + Reath + ATL '25 Second
for
Kleber + Green + OMax + '25

[BeiBeau]

I don't see Portland wanting to fill its roster with veterans at the expense of the recent and upcoming draft picks. The Dallas pick being very lightly protected has some appeal, but route the players elsewhere to make it workable.

Oh, 100% Blazers need follow up after this as they would have 2 goals: They still need to reduce salary and as you mentioned, they’ll need roster spots for draft picks. This is where Dallas would need to be adding 2nds if Portland takes Kleber instead of Looney, because they will need to pay somebody in picks or something to take a bad contract off the books.

Playoff teams would gladly take maxi for free. He’s a very useful player.

[jayjaysee]

random one game overreaction? Dallas wins by 8-10 tonight if Maxi plays. And loses the game if Maxi plays for OKC..

[BeiBeau]

random one game overreaction? Dallas wins by 8-10 tonight if Maxi plays. And loses the game if Maxi plays for OKC..

Probably a lot more the 8-10. What is 5 minutes of Dallas actually getting to run their offense worth on the score board?

They wouldn’t play hack a maxi.

[BeiBeau]

Trade is good for Dallas and I’d do it. Keeping DJJ would still be a goal but this upgrades THJ’s role and hedges against DJJ leaving

[jayjaysee]

random one game overreaction? Dallas wins by 8-10 tonight if Maxi plays. And loses the game if Maxi plays for OKC..

Probably a lot more the 8-10. What is 5 minutes of Dallas actually getting to run their offense worth on the score board?

They wouldn’t play hack a maxi.

Yeah, Lively did alright once it started. But exactly.

And if Maxi was in OKC, PJ would’ve gone cold earlier.

[BK_2020]

Depends who trades for him. Will be expiring

Expiring contracts haven't been valuable since the NBA limited contracts to max 5 years and 80% of NBA contracts are less than 3 years. An expiring is definitely not useful for the Blazers. They either want immediate salary relief to get under the tax or someone who can be flipped for a pick.

Even if we pretend that expirings mean nothing to Portland, which is kind of weird, the OP brings less 2024 salary to Portland than they send out. So shouldn’t have a “negative salary tax”

If you add in a couple of Portland’s vet min guys and a second or two (from Dallas or GS depending) and make it actually a 3 for 3 deal… the deal would save Portland a good amount of the salary they need to trim to get under the tax..

The thing is I don't think Portland would have any trouble getting under the tax. They don't have to randomly gift value to other teams.

[BeiBeau]

random one game overreaction? Dallas wins by 8-10 tonight if Maxi plays. And loses the game if Maxi plays for OKC..

Probably a lot more the 8-10. What is 5 minutes of Dallas actually getting to run their offense worth on the score board?

They wouldn’t play hack a maxi.

Yeah, Lively did alright once it started. But exactly.

And if Maxi was in OKC, PJ would’ve gone cold earlier.

Yeah by your 3rd time in a row on the line it because practice at that point. We keep hearing about Lively’s hypothetical 3 pointer but honestly if he puts on 10 pounds of muscle to improve his finishing and brings he’s ft percentage up 10% that would make a major difference.

And fans of bad teams often forget that players have value even if they’re not a developmental piece. To be fair they mostly just don’t want their team to be responsible for the flip, but that happens all the time.

[jayjaysee]

Expiring contracts haven't been valuable since the NBA limited contracts to max 5 years and 80% of NBA contracts are less than 3 years. An expiring is definitely not useful for the Blazers. They either want immediate salary relief to get under the tax or someone who can be flipped for a pick.

Even if we pretend that expirings mean nothing to Portland, which is kind of weird, the OP brings less 2024 salary to Portland than they send out. So shouldn’t have a “negative salary tax”

If you add in a couple of Portland’s vet min guys and a second or two (from Dallas or GS depending) and make it actually a 3 for 3 deal… the deal would save Portland a good amount of the salary they need to trim to get under the tax..

The thing is I don't think Portland would have any trouble getting under the tax. They don't have to randomly gift value to other teams.

They’re getting a first for the player though in the OP? That’s what Grant is worth..

They don’t get any value at all for saving 6 million next year and 100ish million in future years.

I don’t really know what you’re responding to though? You said THJ is a negative. I just responded that they don’t get to ask for value for THJ due to his contract. They’re saving a lot of money and getting paid for the player..

[timani]

So the Warrior part of this is easily removed. I have Kleber as negative trade value but Portland not caring to pay something to dump him on GSW. So if GSW doesn't want him simply remove them. But I thought they might so...

Deal happens after draft when 25 1st comes open for Dallas


Mavs trade: THJ/Kleber/Powell/25 1st (top 1 then 25 TOR 2nd)
Mavs get: Grant

Blazers trade: Grant
Blazers get: THJ/Looney/Powell/25 DAL 1st (top 1, then 25 TOR 2nd)

GSW trades: Looney
GSW gets: Kleber

So if the Warriors stay they would do this to get a more mobile, theoretical spacer to pair with their 2nd year center.

Blazers get a first for Grant and either only have the $4M of Powell after next year or potentially $15M of Powell/Kleber

Mavs go get another forward to pair with Washington and gives them that 3rd scorer they lack. They get super expensive if they retain Kyrie beyond next year, but that's tomorrow's problem.

At the risk of sounding boring, I have no interest in this trade.

With PJ Washington already on board I don't see paying this cost. Without PJ Washington, I'm very interested in this deal.

[Astaluego]

So the Warrior part of this is easily removed. I have Kleber as negative trade value but Portland not caring to pay something to dump him on GSW. So if GSW doesn't want him simply remove them. But I thought they might so...

Deal happens after draft when 25 1st comes open for Dallas


Mavs trade: THJ/Kleber/Powell/25 1st (top 1 then 25 TOR 2nd)
Mavs get: Grant

Blazers trade: Grant
Blazers get: THJ/Looney/Powell/25 DAL 1st (top 1, then 25 TOR 2nd)

GSW trades: Looney
GSW gets: Kleber

So if the Warriors stay they would do this to get a more mobile, theoretical spacer to pair with their 2nd year center.

Blazers get a first for Grant and either only have the $4M of Powell after next year or potentially $15M of Powell/Kleber

Mavs go get another forward to pair with Washington and gives them that 3rd scorer they lack. They get super expensive if they retain Kyrie beyond next year, but that's tomorrow's problem.

At the risk of sounding boring, I have no interest in this trade.

With PJ Washington already on board I don't see paying this cost. Without PJ Washington, I'm very interested in this deal.

Grant starts at 3 in DJJ's place... I like it, because it puts us on par in size with the division's bogeymen who are very big, who have wings like MPJ or the Wolves with McDaniels and that huge front court of the Wolves

[Darren]

I think Grant and Washington play similar role. Grant has been playing 4/5 almost entire career. Now that Grant's over 30, I am not sure I am all in without a PJ trade. Washington is balking right now. I'd wait and see if Washington can get consistency and show big smart and gut on big stage.

[Darren]

At 6-7, Grant could become too small when the quick deets are slowing down.

[Andre 2999]

Jerami Grant has a solid case for worst contract in the league. He also seems quite content with losing, don't think Mavs should entertain trading a first for him

The cap is about to increase 2.5x. Pretty soon, I think Grant's contract will look a lot more reasonable.

2.5x?? its going up by like 5M only next yr

You're right, my mistake. I assumed with the sizeable increase of the new media rights deals for the league, that the cap would spike like it did in 2016. But according to Forbes...

The revenue from the new national TV deals will get factored into basketball-related income, which determines where the salary cap lands each year. A nearly three-fold increase in those contracts should cause the cap to rise 10% annually starting in 2025-26 when the new TV deals begin.

If the NBA does finalize contracts of that size, that will have major team-building ramifications in 2025-26 and beyond. The salary cap would skyrocket over the coming years, although not all in one fell swoop as it did during the infamous summer of 2016.

Source: https://www.forbes.com/sites/bryantoporek/2024/05/30/the-nbas-new-tv-deals-are-poised-to-send-the-salary-cap-skyrocketing/?sh=4ef775c43ad2

[Wizenheimer]

The cap is about to increase 2.5x. Pretty soon, I think Grant's contract will look a lot more reasonable.

2.5x?? its going up by like 5M only next yr

You're right, my mistake. I assumed with the sizeable increase of the new media rights deals for the league, that the cap would spike like it did in 2016. But according to Forbes...

The revenue from the new national TV deals will get factored into basketball-related income, which determines where the salary cap lands each year. A nearly three-fold increase in those contracts should cause the cap to rise 10% annually starting in 2025-26 when the new TV deals begin.

If the NBA does finalize contracts of that size, that will have major team-building ramifications in 2025-26 and beyond. The salary cap would skyrocket over the coming years, although not all in one fell swoop as it did during the infamous summer of 2016.

Source: https://www.forbes.com/sites/bryantoporek/2024/05/30/the-nbas-new-tv-deals-are-poised-to-send-the-salary-cap-skyrocketing/?sh=4ef775c43ad2

the new CBA has a provision for 'smoothing' that the old CBA didn't. If the projections for a massive increase in media revenue are true, than that means next season would be an approximate baseline to start the smoothing with the next year's cap being 110% of the previous year's cap

2024-25 --> 141M cap
2025-26 --> 155M cap
2026-27 --> 171M cap
2027-28 --> 188M cap
2028-29 --> 207M cap (yikes!)

etc.

I have probably got assumptions wrong but being wrong is part of the fun

[Norm2953]

2.5x?? its going up by like 5M only next yr

You're right, my mistake. I assumed with the sizeable increase of the new media rights deals for the league, that the cap would spike like it did in 2016. But according to Forbes...

The revenue from the new national TV deals will get factored into basketball-related income, which determines where the salary cap lands each year. A nearly three-fold increase in those contracts should cause the cap to rise 10% annually starting in 2025-26 when the new TV deals begin.

If the NBA does finalize contracts of that size, that will have major team-building ramifications in 2025-26 and beyond. The salary cap would skyrocket over the coming years, although not all in one fell swoop as it did during the infamous summer of 2016.

Source: https://www.forbes.com/sites/bryantoporek/2024/05/30/the-nbas-new-tv-deals-are-poised-to-send-the-salary-cap-skyrocketing/?sh=4ef775c43ad2

the new CBA has a provision for 'smoothing' that the old CBA didn't. If the projections for a massive increase in media revenue are true, than that means next season would be an approximate baseline to start the smoothing with the next year's cap being 110% of the previous year's cap

2024-25 --> 141M cap
2025-26 --> 155M cap
2026-27 --> 171M cap
2027-28 --> 188M cap
2028-29 --> 207M cap (yikes!)

etc.

I have probably got assumptions wrong but being wrong is part of the fun

One can only imagine what type of supermax Victor will be eligible to sign

[Wizenheimer]

You're right, my mistake. I assumed with the sizeable increase of the new media rights deals for the league, that the cap would spike like it did in 2016. But according to Forbes...

The revenue from the new national TV deals will get factored into basketball-related income, which determines where the salary cap lands each year. A nearly three-fold increase in those contracts should cause the cap to rise 10% annually starting in 2025-26 when the new TV deals begin.

If the NBA does finalize contracts of that size, that will have major team-building ramifications in 2025-26 and beyond. The salary cap would skyrocket over the coming years, although not all in one fell swoop as it did during the infamous summer of 2016.

Source: https://www.forbes.com/sites/bryantoporek/2024/05/30/the-nbas-new-tv-deals-are-poised-to-send-the-salary-cap-skyrocketing/?sh=4ef775c43ad2

the new CBA has a provision for 'smoothing' that the old CBA didn't. If the projections for a massive increase in media revenue are true, than that means next season would be an approximate baseline to start the smoothing with the next year's cap being 110% of the previous year's cap

2024-25 --> 141M cap
2025-26 --> 155M cap
2026-27 --> 171M cap
2027-28 --> 188M cap
2028-29 --> 207M cap (yikes!)

etc.

I have probably got assumptions wrong but being wrong is part of the fun

One can only imagine what type of supermax Victor will be eligible to sign

don't have to use much imagination, If you assume he'd be eligible for a rookie supermax extension, his base salary would be 30% of the cap. If the cap is set at 188M, then his base salary would be 56.4M. On a 5 year deal that totals 282M. And he'd get 10 max step-raises totaling 45M. So then a 5-year/327M contract. 65M/year. About $180K/day. That's $7,465/hour, 24 hours a day, every single day, for 5 years

decent pay if you can get it