The trade market for pitchers

Ex-hippie · Post #1 » by **Ex-hippie** » Fri Nov 16, 2007 11:29 pm

The offseason is a great time for wild, baseless speculation.

Key quote about pitchers who might be on the market:

A.J. Burnett. Ben Sheets. Dan Haren. Erik Bedard. Matt Garza. Tim Lincecum. Dontrelle Willis. Scott Kazmir.

There were even whispers that Roy Oswalt and Jake Peavy could be had in the right blockbuster, but don't hold your breath. Certainly, it will be more plausible to obtain the likes of Cliff Lee, Jon Garland, Jose Contreras and Joe Blanton, who are hardly sure things but might be better gambles than the sad-sack free agents.

...in addition to Johan Santana, the cream of the crop.

Let's assume Oswalt and Peavy are off the market (at least as long as we're keeping Felix off the table) and discuss the rest of them. Off the top of my head I'd rate their trade value as follows: (1) Santana, (2) Lincecum, (3) Bedard, (4) Kazmir, (5) Haren, (6) Sheets, (7) Garza, (8) Burnett, (9) Blanton, (10) Willis, (11) Garland, (12) Contreras, (13) Lee.

So, let's discuss what kind of trade offers would entice teams to make a trade?

For Santana, anyone and everyone should be considered available, and yes, that includes Carlos Triunfel.

For Lincecum, Bedard, Kazmir or Haren, it's probably necessary to trade two or more high-level prospects, including Adam Jones, Wlad Balentien, Jeff Clement and Brandon Morrow, and maybe even a third prospect. (Note with respect to Haren: Billy Beane is on record saying it's stupid to refuse to trade players within the division, so he's not off the table.)

Sheets can probably be had for less, given his salary and injury history. Garza might be available in a straight-up swap for a prospect on the level of, say, Balentien, plus maybe a little more. Same goes for Burnett (similar to Sheets) and Blanton (see above re Haren/Beane).

Then come Willis and Garland, who are glorified mid-rotation guys, unless the scouts check them out in Winter ball and find they've been rejuvenated.

Finally, Contreras and Lee, who don't interest me. Contreras is old and Lee sucks. I'd rather try someone else at the back of the rotation. Unfortunately, players who are old and sucky are exactly what Bill Bavasi likes. Arguably, Lee is right where Horacio Ramirez was a year ago.

Discuss.

Post #2 » by **PhilipNelsonFan** » Sun Nov 18, 2007 2:03 am

Lee's still pretty young, right? I'd try him on the off-chance that he can be a back-end starter once Cha-Seung Baek suffers his annual injury.

I have absolutely no problem throwing a package like Adam Jones, Carlos Triunfel, Chris Tillman, Robert Rohrbaugh, and Brandon Morrow towards Johan Santana. Can you IMAGINE him and King Felix at the top of a very nice rotation. We'd be awesome pitching-wise.

From there, it's as simple as finding a quality fourth starter (since Washburn is a more-than-competent No. 3). Ben Sheets can probably be had for cheapest, but he might cost us another blue-chipper. I'd pursue him regardless.

Post #3 » by **Basketball Jesus** » Sun Nov 18, 2007 6:29 am

I see absolutely no reason whatsoever to raid an already weak farm system to get a one- or two-season rental on a stud pitcher when this team isn't close to seriously competing. That said, I wouldn't mind seeing the Mariners going after Matt Garza, if he really is available. Given the Twins need for a second baseman, the Mariners may be able to get him for Lopez straight up, which would be an unbelievable coup. But the M's most likely would have to throw in a moderately-regarded spec to balance it out.

Other than Garza, I see no reason to pursue any of the other pitchers. First, it will cost too much in terms of future talent, secondly the M's don't have the kind of farm to contend with the other big spenders.

Ex-hippie · Post #4 » by **Ex-hippie** » Mon Nov 19, 2007 4:05 am

Basketball Jesus wrote:Other than Garza, I see no reason to pursue any of the other pitchers. First, it will cost too much in terms of future talent, secondly the M's don't have the kind of farm to contend with the other big spenders.

I don't get this. You say the M's have an empty farm system almost as often as you say Wladimir Balentien is the next Wily Mo Pena. There are a number of players in the M's system who could possibly be attractive trade bait; many of them have been named in this thread. Even if the system isn't the league's greatest either at the top or in terms of depth, there are some valuable chips there. Why would you not at least pursue someone like Bedard or Kazmir? If you get outbid, fine, but "no reason to pursue" them?

Post #5 » by **Basketball Jesus** » Mon Nov 19, 2007 4:52 pm

hippie wrote:
I don't get this. You say the M's have an empty farm system almost as often as you say Wladimir Balentien is the next Wily Mo Pena. There are a number of players in the M's system who could possibly be attractive trade bait; many of them have been named in this thread. Even if the system isn't the league's greatest either at the top or in terms of depth, there are some valuable chips there. Why would you not at least pursue someone like Bedard or Kazmir? If you get outbid, fine, but "no reason to pursue" them?

Nobody is saying there aren

Post #6 » by **Basketball Jesus** » Mon Nov 19, 2007 5:05 pm

I guess what I

Post #7 » by **Bulltalk** » Tue Nov 20, 2007 3:24 am

We're the tweener franchise. We can never hope for the best FA's, we can't seem to hold onto our own best talent (Randy, Alex, Griffey...), so we end up blending what's left of our average farm talent with a bunch of 2nd and 3rd tier FA's.

At least Gillick was pretty good at working the formula, whereas Bavasi has proven to be a toothache.

What 100 million dollar payroll are we going to trot out there next year that can't win a 4 team division?

Again.

Carpe Diem · Post #8 » by **Carpe Diem** » Tue Nov 27, 2007 4:27 am

Not poaching/lurking or trying to start a war or anything but on another board I read someone mentioning Seattle as a dark horse candidate for Santana, mentioning a Jones, Balentien, Clement, Morrow type package. MN wants prospects in return and these are interesting enough players to start a conversation with.

No way would MN trade Garza for Lopez. The talk is Garza (top pitcher) for Delmon Young (top hitter) from two years ago. Young can't get along with management in TB and Garza can't get along with management in MN. BTW, MN's needs are CF, 3B, DH. Punto and Casilla are their second basemen.

Ex-hippie · Post #9 » by **Ex-hippie** » Tue Nov 27, 2007 3:39 pm

Carpe Diem wrote:Punto and Casilla are their second basemen.

If any sentence could more easily be translated as "we desperately need a 2B," I don't know what it is. But I agree that Lopez isn't going to be enough to get Garza.

Post #10 » by **Basketball Jesus** » Tue Nov 27, 2007 4:08 pm

hippie wrote:If any sentence could more easily be translated as "we desperately need a 2B," I don't know what it is. But I agree that Lopez isn't going to be enough to get Garza.

Well, not Lopez by himself but a package of Lopez and a few spects would probably land him. Although I think Garza only has one year left on his deal, right?

Carpe Diem · Post #11 » by **Carpe Diem** » Wed Nov 28, 2007 1:08 am

Garza can't be a free agent for years. He wont qualify for arbitration until after next season. I doubt MN trades him for a prospect, unless he can immediately fill a hole. Garza grades out as a solid 2 and as such he is bantered around in the same breath as Delmon Young. Not sure what Seattle would be willing to consider, but no way does Lopez get it done.

Punto hit .300 in 06 but bombed in 07. Casilla has the tools to be an above average lead off hitter, but his head wanders and his range suffers.

Ex-hippie · Post #12 » by **Ex-hippie** » Wed Nov 28, 2007 9:36 pm

Well, despite Basketball Jesus's prophecy that the M's don't have the prospects to get in the race for top talent, here's what's on SI today, via the Wiretap:

http://www.realgmbaseball.com/src_wiret ... ana_trade/

Key quote, after talking about the Yankees' and Red Sox' efforts to land Johan:

The Mets, Dodgers, Angels and Mariners are seen as other potential big players for Santana, who went 15-13 this season with a 3.33 ERA.

The Yankees and Red Sox both seem to think they can land the best pitcher in all of baseball while keeping their best prospects (Chamberlain and Ellsbury, respectively) off the table. The Mets lack the prospects to make it happen (file Pelfrey under "TANSTAAPP") and the article seems dismissive of the efforts of the Dodgers and the Angels. That leaves just one team that isn't addressed in great detail. You have to think they could make a run with what they have.

The Mariners' biggest disadvantage is shown in the Wiretap headline. If the M's trade Adam Jones, it will leave a hole in the outfield, and they will have a hard time filling it because they will have spent most of their available financial resources on Santana. If the Yankees trade Melky Cabrera, no problem, they just grab Aaron Rowand for another, I dunno, $30-$40 million over four years. Problem solved. It's not that the Mariners don't have the prospects to land Santana; it's that they need to keep their players who are young, cheap and good. The Yankees and Red Sox have no such need.

Post #13 » by **Basketball Jesus** » Thu Nov 29, 2007 4:32 pm

I still don

Post #14 » by **Basketball Jesus** » Thu Nov 29, 2007 4:34 pm

Also, hippie, I really think you overrate this farm too much. I

b_roy7 · Post #15 » by **b_roy7** » Thu Nov 29, 2007 4:42 pm

There goes Garza.

Ex-hippie · Post #16 » by **Ex-hippie** » Thu Nov 29, 2007 5:04 pm

Basketball Jesus wrote:Also, hippie, I really think you overrate this farm too much. I