Brewers 2025 Discussion - Frelick Activated, Black Sent Down

[Matches Malone]

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[MVP2110]

Curious if Bauers can maintain this. He should get a long look at 1b now with the Hoskins injury

[Thunder Muscle]

Curious if Bauers can maintain this. He should get a long look at 1b now with the Hoskins injury

He definitely is going to get an extended look. Defensively this will help, but still a little skeptical he turns into a consistent bat.

OF I thought was the surplus position but its kind of in a state of flux. Chourio has hit a rookie wall, Frelick is struggling, Perkins has cooled off, Wiemer is hurt (with no ETA to return I dont think), Yelich I assume they don’t want out there frequently, etc. Mitchell I think is still out another month.

[MVP2110]

The following players were acquired by the Brewers this past offseason

Joey Ortiz 135 OPS+
Rhys Hoskins 131 OPS+
Gary Sanchez 127 OPS+
Jake Bauers 127 OPS+
Bryan Hudson 0.81 ERA
Jared Koenig 2.93 ERA

And Ortiz was the only where Arnold gave up a truly significant asset(you could argue giving up decent prospects like Avina or Chambers are somewhat significant assets).

And That doesn't include the following players acquired last year

William Contreras 175 OPS+
Trevor Megill 0.93 ERA
Bryse Wilson 2.65 ERA
Colin Rea 3.45 ERA
Elvis Peguero 3.71 ERA

A pretty great job by Matt Arnold atleast from what we've seen so far

[Thunder Muscle]

The following players were acquired by the Brewers this past offseason

Joey Ortiz 135 OPS+
Rhys Hoskins 131 OPS+
Gary Sanchez 127 OPS+
Jake Bauers 127 OPS+
Bryan Hudson 0.81 ERA
Jared Koenig 2.93 ERA

And Ortiz was the only where Arnold gave up a truly significant asset(you could argue giving up decent prospects like Avina or Chambers are somewhat significant assets).

And That doesn't include the following players acquired last year

William Contreras 175 OPS+
Trevor Megill 0.93 ERA
Bryse Wilson 2.65 ERA
Colin Rea 3.45 ERA
Elvis Peguero 3.71 ERA

A pretty great job by Matt Arnold atleast from what we've seen so far

Agreed. What are some misses? Winker? I can’t put guys like Brian Anderson there as it was a minor move.

[MVP2110]

The following players were acquired by the Brewers this past offseason

Joey Ortiz 135 OPS+
Rhys Hoskins 131 OPS+
Gary Sanchez 127 OPS+
Jake Bauers 127 OPS+
Bryan Hudson 0.81 ERA
Jared Koenig 2.93 ERA

And Ortiz was the only where Arnold gave up a truly significant asset(you could argue giving up decent prospects like Avina or Chambers are somewhat significant assets).

And That doesn't include the following players acquired last year

William Contreras 175 OPS+
Trevor Megill 0.93 ERA
Bryse Wilson 2.65 ERA
Colin Rea 3.45 ERA
Elvis Peguero 3.71 ERA

A pretty great job by Matt Arnold atleast from what we've seen so far

Agreed. What are some misses? Winker? I can’t put guys like Brian Anderson there as it was a minor move.

Winker is probably one although Wong also did nothing so it was trash for trash. Andrew Chafin is the only other than comes to mind

[ReasonablySober]

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[jute2003]

It seems bauers is making my previous post about his playing time seem a bit silly and wrong. He was batting like .202 at the time of said post and has no history of not sucking. mea culpa

Hopefully he continues to be productive.

[ReasonablySober]

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[Kerb Hohl]

Yeah, we can revisit the great Bauer debates of the 2023-2024 offseason. He was starting to show some launch/power with the Yankees which is why I argued that the Brewers, who know what they're doing, wouldn't just acquire a AAAA guy for no reason.

The guy had a bigger prospect profile than somebody like Garrett Mitchell. He just didn't have great power production once up and couldn't stick in the majors.

I'm guessing that his numbers may regress a bit, but in 2019, he hit the ball on the ground 39% of the time and a 38% fly ball rate. Hard hit % of 31% with a 5% barrel rate.

This year he's at 18% (!!!) groundballs, 44% fly balls (with liners filling up a lot of the difference), hard hit 42% of the time with a 10% barrel rate. He's also pulling the ball a lot more.

He's transformed into a solid corner power bat.

[ReasonablySober]

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[Thunder Muscle]

What is Chris Roller’s story? I don’t know anything about him.

This Burnes trade could look good if Ortiz is legit and DL Hall comes back strong. Plus still have a comp pick too.

[ReasonablySober]

What is Chris Roller’s story? I don’t know anything about him.

This Burnes trade could look good if Ortiz is legit and DL Hall comes back strong. Plus still have a comp pick too.

We got Roller for cash from Cleveland and added him to the 40 man last fall. Known for a solid glove in CF but below average bat skills. Wasn't having a good season in Nashville but he's basically the last remaining option on the 40.

[Ayt]

The Contreras trade is one of the most insane I have ever seen. Even at the time it seemed absurd for the Brewers, and now it is looking even more absurd. How does a trade like that even happen? How do other teams not jump all over a catcher at his age with his ability who is available?

**** bizarre. The Brewers got a young MVP caliber catcher for basically nothing and the rest of the league didn't even blink. How does that even happen?

[MiltownHawkeye]

The Contreras trade is one of the most insane I have ever seen. Even at the time it seemed absurd for the Brewers, and now it is looking even more absurd. How does a trade like that even happen? How do other teams not jump all over a catcher at his age with his ability who is available?

**** bizarre. The Brewers got a young MVP caliber catcher for basically nothing and the rest of the league didn't even blink. How does that even happen?

I haven't fully wrapped my mind around it either. seems like Contreras was thought of as a Gary Sanchez-type player in ATL. A good hitter with power but a liability behind the plate and more of a DH/corner guy long-term. We made him into an above-average defensive catcher with elite framing somehow last year, and now he's doing that + hitting like prime Joe Mauer.

Sean Murphy is an elite defensive C and not a slouch at the plate so I get them seeing him as an upgrade at the time, but what I don't get is that Contreras was still dirt cheap + he already showed that his bat could play at DH or a corner spot.

[ReasonablySober]

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Though Lauer looked well on his way to a breakout with the Brew Crew in 2021 after adding a slider to his arsenal, his 2023 campaign was a disaster. From 2021-22, Lauer pitched to a 3.47 ERA in 277 1/3 innings, showing strong strikeout and walk rates along the way — particularly after incorporating that new breaking ball into his repertoire. However, last year saw the southpaw post a grisly 6.46 ERA in 46 2/3 innings. The Brewers optioned him to Triple-A Nashville in hopes of getting him right, but he served up a 5.15 ERA there as well.

Lauer incurred both shoulder and elbow injuries from 2022-23, so it’s certainly possible he wasn’t pitching at full strength during that miserable 2023 campaign. He lost more than two miles per hour off his heater last year, dropping from a 93.3 mph average in 2022 to just 91.2 mph before he was optioned.

While that ugly final outing in Indy skewed Lauer’s 2024 ERA, he fanned a sharp 29.1% of opponents in his brief stint with the Pirates organization, coupling that mark with a solid 8.7% walk rate. Even if he doesn’t get all the way back to his 2021-22 form, Lauer has a 4.30 earned run average in nearly 600 big league innings — a 4.11 mark if excluding last year’s tough showing. He also only has 4.111 years of big league service time, so if a team signs him and brings him to the majors at some point, he can be controlled through the 2025 season via arbitration (or even through 2026, if his MLB promotion comes with 60 or fewer days remaining on the season’s calendar).

Wouldn't rule out a reunion here.

[coolhandluke121]

The Contreras trade is one of the most insane I have ever seen. Even at the time it seemed absurd for the Brewers, and now it is looking even more absurd. How does a trade like that even happen? How do other teams not jump all over a catcher at his age with his ability who is available?

**** bizarre. The Brewers got a young MVP caliber catcher for basically nothing and the rest of the league didn't even blink. How does that even happen?

I haven't fully wrapped my mind around it either. seems like Contreras was thought of as a Gary Sanchez-type player in ATL. A good hitter with power but a liability behind the plate and more of a DH/corner guy long-term. We made him into an above-average defensive catcher with elite framing somehow last year, and now he's doing that + hitting like prime Joe Mauer.

Sean Murphy is an elite defensive C and not a slouch at the plate so I get them seeing him as an upgrade at the time, but what I don't get is that Contreras was still dirt cheap + he already showed that his bat could play at DH or a corner spot.

I don't think it was such a weird trade from Atlanta's perspective; it's the fact that the Brewers basically only gave up Esteury Ruiz and filler that makes it mind-boggling. Oakland is the team that should have done (much) better.

[Thunder Muscle]

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Though Lauer looked well on his way to a breakout with the Brew Crew in 2021 after adding a slider to his arsenal, his 2023 campaign was a disaster. From 2021-22, Lauer pitched to a 3.47 ERA in 277 1/3 innings, showing strong strikeout and walk rates along the way — particularly after incorporating that new breaking ball into his repertoire. However, last year saw the southpaw post a grisly 6.46 ERA in 46 2/3 innings. The Brewers optioned him to Triple-A Nashville in hopes of getting him right, but he served up a 5.15 ERA there as well.

Lauer incurred both shoulder and elbow injuries from 2022-23, so it’s certainly possible he wasn’t pitching at full strength during that miserable 2023 campaign. He lost more than two miles per hour off his heater last year, dropping from a 93.3 mph average in 2022 to just 91.2 mph before he was optioned.

While that ugly final outing in Indy skewed Lauer’s 2024 ERA, he fanned a sharp 29.1% of opponents in his brief stint with the Pirates organization, coupling that mark with a solid 8.7% walk rate. Even if he doesn’t get all the way back to his 2021-22 form, Lauer has a 4.30 earned run average in nearly 600 big league innings — a 4.11 mark if excluding last year’s tough showing. He also only has 4.111 years of big league service time, so if a team signs him and brings him to the majors at some point, he can be controlled through the 2025 season via arbitration (or even through 2026, if his MLB promotion comes with 60 or fewer days remaining on the season’s calendar).

Wouldn't rule out a reunion here.

I could definitely see that. There likely will be an opportunity at some point as doesn’t look like Junis is coming back any time soon and who knows how long Ross stays healthy and/or Wilson may flameout at any point. With that said, at the moment, there is some stability with Peralta, Rea, Ross, Gasser, Wilson, and even Myers in that mix.

[ReasonablySober]

Rosenthal.

Why Adames is unlikely to be the next Hader
Speaking of the Brewers, the return from their controversial Josh Hader trade at the 2022 deadline keeps looking better and better.

Left-hander Robert Gasser, the pitching prospect they acquired from the Padres, has a 0.82 ERA after two starts. Another player in the deal, outfielder Esteury Ruiz, brought them star catcher William Contreras and reliever Joel Payamps in a three-team deal with Atlanta and Oakland 4 1/2 months later.

The Hader trade jarred the Brewers’ players, who were stunned the team would trade its All-Star closer while it had a three-game lead in the NL Central. Hader to that point in the season had not pitched particularly well, and would be even worse for the Padres before rallying in the playoffs. But the Brewers’ attempt to backfill with Taylor Rogers and Trevor Rosenthal backfired, and the team missed making the playoffs by one game.

Which raises the question: Would the Brewers attempt a similar move with shortstop Willy Adames, who is even closer to free agency than Hader was? Hader at the time was under club control for two pennant races. Adames, on the other hand, is only months away from hitting the open market.

“I’ve already been traded twice in my career. I know it’s part of the game,” said Adames, who went from the Tigers to the Tampa Bay Rays in the David Price deal in 2014 and the Rays to the Brewers for pitchers Drew Rasmussen and J.P. Feyereisen in 2021. “But you feel comfortable in a place. You create good friendships with guys, create that bond. And then you get traded, it’s like, ‘Man.’”

Adames, 28, probably can rest easy. If the Brewers traded him, they could slide Brice Turang to shortstop and use Joey Ortiz and others at second base. But club officials recognize the internal damage they caused with the Hader deal, and the potential to unsettle the clubhouse again by parting with an everyday player and team leader. Turang and Ortiz might be succeeding in part because Adames is providing them with veteran cover.

Christian Yelich: The Brewers’ player-coach
Five years into a nine-year contract, left fielder Christian Yelich has assumed an outsized role with the Brewers, serving not just as their primary leader, but also acting almost as a coach.

Yelich, 32, recently helped Jake Bauers adopt a toe tap, helping the first baseman/outfielder turn around his season. He also eased Turang’s transition to leadoff by speaking extensively to him about hitting in that spot. Last Saturday, Yelich even ran the Brewers’ pre-game bunting drill, one day after dropping down an RBI bunt single himself.

The Brewers seemed a good bet to regress after losing manager Craig Counsell to the Chicago Cubs, trading staff ace Corbin Burnes to the Orioles and starting the season without two injured stalwarts, closer Devin Williams and right-hander Brandon Woodruff. Instead, the team leads the NL Central.

“We hold ourselves to a certain standard. There’s an accountability here,” Yelich said. “If you want to be on a bad team, do what bad teams do, talk like bad teams do, play like bad teams do. You can do that. That’s fine. But if you want to be on a good team and play winning baseball, you have to do it a certain way.”

[Ayt]

Not trading Adames would be a huge mistake.