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2024 Draft Thread - Part II

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Re: 2024 Draft Thread - Part II 

Post#381 » by Kanyewest » Thu May 16, 2024 9:41 pm

pancakes3 wrote:GMs know it's a weak draft and they're not going to give up assets just to take Clingan at 2 when we don't even want him at 2 without giving anything up.

Ringer said that front offices are saying that a top 3 pick this year is like a top 5-10 pick in other years, and that the expected value of a top 3 pick is around Tobias Harris levels of talent. Of course, factoring in variance, you could get guys that overperform, but on average, based on the tape that the scouts have watched, that's what the consensus opinion of this draft is.


Yeah, here's a quote from Ryen Russillo - maybe the 4th or 5th starter on a decent team could get you the #1 draft pick.

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Re: 2024 Draft Thread - Part II 

Post#382 » by popper » Thu May 16, 2024 9:59 pm

I wonder if Clingan has a ceiling comparable to Gobert. If so, his trade value in 2 or 3 years on a rookie contract could be outstanding.
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Re: 2024 Draft Thread - Part II 

Post#383 » by NatP4 » Thu May 16, 2024 10:09 pm

Kanyewest wrote:
pancakes3 wrote:GMs know it's a weak draft and they're not going to give up assets just to take Clingan at 2 when we don't even want him at 2 without giving anything up.

Ringer said that front offices are saying that a top 3 pick this year is like a top 5-10 pick in other years, and that the expected value of a top 3 pick is around Tobias Harris levels of talent. Of course, factoring in variance, you could get guys that overperform, but on average, based on the tape that the scouts have watched, that's what the consensus opinion of this draft is.


Yeah, here's a quote from Ryen Russillo - maybe the 4th or 5th starter on a decent team could get you the #1 draft pick.



So we can trade Kuzma for the top pick?

Deal.
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Re: 2024 Draft Thread - Part II 

Post#384 » by DCZards » Thu May 16, 2024 10:15 pm

The Consiglieri wrote:
AFM wrote:You can't even say "there's no generational talent in this draft", we really don't know. There could be a Jokic in the 2nd round. What is totally fair to say is that there's no OBVIOUS generational talent, like a Wemby or a Lebron.


That's what's meant. When scouts and analytics people look at this, they don't see transformative players. It doesn't mean there aren't any. We can't know the future. It does heavily suggest both the high end talent is either non-existent, or very shallow, and that the ability to identify said talent is gonna be as much about luck as anything, and that's if its even there. I'm sure there are gonna be special players in this draft, but #1 options with superstar ability, first ballot HOF, multi champion studs? I don't see it, and I think its basically going to come in two ways:
1. Blind randomness.
2. Somebody doing what Dat has referenced in talking about it, and what's happened with ANT, some player with a reasonably high ceiling, hitting a grand slam on that ceiling through work rate and will (say Butler on Miami).

It's possible, but most likely, what I see happening is a ceiling result for a complimentary player. A guy becomes a very, very good 2nd or 3rd option...but how do we find them? Luck.

Truth be told...a lot of drafts don't have a first ballot HOF or multi champion studs. So that's not unusual.

When scouts and GM judge players in this draft (and most drafts) they are largely looking at 18, 19 and 20 year olds. I can't imagine there being a lot of reliable "analytics" for players that young. So, regardless of what you've heard about this draft, there is really no way of telling for sure whether the 2024 draft will be a good, bad or average draft. It would take a crystal ball to know that.

Right now, the "bad draft" narrative is out there but we'll obviously have to wait and see. I'm willing to bet that there will be 2 or 3 players in this draft who will perform beyond people's wildest expectations. Who knows--maybe even a Giannis or a Joker. Clearly they weren't expected to be generational talents--but they are.
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Re: 2024 Draft Thread - Part II 

Post#385 » by tontoz » Thu May 16, 2024 10:19 pm

One good thing about this draft is that I don't see a Jan vesely level bust among the guys were have been discussing in the top 10. It was so clear that he was a bad pick. We were all saying it before the draft.
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Re: 2024 Draft Thread - Part II 

Post#386 » by nate33 » Fri May 17, 2024 12:03 am

Just thinking out loud. Why not compare Sheppard to another hyper-efficient, but relatively low usage college point guard with dynamite advanced numbers?

Image

Their numbers are almost identical.
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Re: 2024 Draft Thread - Part II 

Post#387 » by penbeast0 » Fri May 17, 2024 12:12 am

NatP4 wrote:
Kanyewest wrote:
pancakes3 wrote:GMs know it's a weak draft and they're not going to give up assets just to take Clingan at 2 when we don't even want him at 2 without giving anything up.

Ringer said that front offices are saying that a top 3 pick this year is like a top 5-10 pick in other years, and that the expected value of a top 3 pick is around Tobias Harris levels of talent. Of course, factoring in variance, you could get guys that overperform, but on average, based on the tape that the scouts have watched, that's what the consensus opinion of this draft is.


Yeah, here's a quote from Ryen Russillo - maybe the 4th or 5th starter on a decent team could get you the #1 draft pick.



So we can trade Kuzma for the top pick?

Deal.


You have Kuzma as someone who should be a starter on a decent team? You must not get to the T&T board often.
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Re: 2024 Draft Thread - Part II 

Post#388 » by Frichuela » Fri May 17, 2024 12:16 am

nate33 wrote:Just thinking out loud. Why not compare Sheppard to another hyper-efficient, but relatively low usage college point guard with dynamite advanced numbers:

Image

Their numbers are almost identical.


Yes, statistically Reed Sheppard is a super strong prospect.

In other news, there is another French prospect rising fast up draft boards…it could be SAS targets him at #8 and someone like Sheppard at #4…

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Re: 2024 Draft Thread - Part II 

Post#389 » by tontoz » Fri May 17, 2024 12:35 am

I am not a Kuzma fan but the fact is that Dallas just tried to trade for him and they are one game away from the WCF.

He did play 23 minutes a game in the playoffs for a team that win a title.
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Re: 2024 Draft Thread - Part II 

Post#390 » by NatP4 » Fri May 17, 2024 1:13 am

nate33 wrote:Just thinking out loud. Why not compare Sheppard to another hyper-efficient, but relatively low usage college point guard with dynamite advanced numbers?

Their numbers are almost identical.


Pcbothwel made this comparison all year. It’s an interesting one. Haliburton has much better length.
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Re: 2024 Draft Thread - Part II 

Post#391 » by payitforward » Fri May 17, 2024 2:09 am

The Consiglieri wrote:.....(the '20 class was also poor....

Wow.....

Anthony Edwards
Lamelo Ball
Tyrese Halliburton
Deni Avdija
Tyrese Maxey
Desmond Bane
Devin Vassell
Obi Toppin
KMart Jr.
Immanuel Quickley
Xavier Tillman
Precious Achiuwa
Onyeka Okonwu
Isaac Okoru
Josh Green
Paul Reed
Isaiah Joe
Sam Merrill
Jaden McDaniels
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Re: 2024 Draft Thread - Part II 

Post#392 » by payitforward » Fri May 17, 2024 2:22 am

The Consiglieri wrote:...we don't agree about anything (though I appreciate how warm you are in your disagreement)....

back at you! :)
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Re: 2024 Draft Thread - Part II 

Post#393 » by trast66 » Fri May 17, 2024 2:23 am

I think this is who we are taking. Never seen him play but right up Wingers alley.

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Re: 2024 Draft Thread - Part II 

Post#394 » by payitforward » Fri May 17, 2024 2:31 am

The Consiglieri wrote:...if he had simply managed his four drafts well & not decided to resign Bertans -- that & no more -- Tommy would have turned the Washington Wizards into one of the best young teams in the league.

He could easily have come away with:

Brandon Clarke
Keldon Johnson
Caleb Martin
Tyrese Halliburton
Desmond Bane
Xavier Tillmann
KMart Jr.
Trey Murphy III
Herb Jones
Ayo Dosunmu
Tari Eason
Andrew Nembhard
...
& that's not even considering the '23 draft, where he'd have been able to come away with Brandin Podziemski & Trayce Jackson-Davis....

...I don't think that lineup accomplishes anything at all, I think it gives you a nice bench and a nice collection of end of starting group options that gets rolled....[/quote]
Wow...!
I think Halliburton is likely to win an MVP before he retires. As to Clarke, take a look at what happened to Memphis' record once he was injured.

Best guess: there's not a player on that list you're really familiar with. Am I right?
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Re: 2024 Draft Thread - Part II 

Post#395 » by Jay81 » Fri May 17, 2024 2:33 am

tontoz wrote:I am not a Kuzma fan but the fact is that Dallas just tried to trade for him and they are one game away from the WCF.

He did play 23 minutes a game in the playoffs for a team that win a title.

You also wonder about a guy who turned down a chance to be in the playoffs
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Re: 2024 Draft Thread - Part II 

Post#396 » by payitforward » Fri May 17, 2024 2:35 am

The Consiglieri wrote:
payitforward wrote:...if he had simply managed his four drafts well & not decided to resign Bertans -- that & no more -- Tommy would have turned the Washington Wizards into one of the best young teams in the league.

He could easily have come away with:

Brandon Clarke
Keldon Johnson
Caleb Martin
Tyrese Halliburton
Desmond Bane
Xavier Tillmann
KMart Jr.
Trey Murphy III
Herb Jones
Ayo Dosunmu
Tari Eason
Andrew Nembhard
...
& that's not even considering the '23 draft, where he'd have been able to come away with Brandin Podziemski & Trayce Jackson-Davis....

...I don't think that lineup accomplishes anything at all, I think it gives you a nice bench and a nice collection of end of starting group options that gets rolled....

Wow...!
I think Halliburton is likely to win an MVP before he retires. As to Clarke, take a look at what happened to Memphis' record once he was injured.

Best guess: there's not a player on that list you're really familiar with. Am I right?

In fairness, however, I wasn't thinking of those guys as "a lineup." Just as the highest value assets that were available to us in those drafts. I.e. "best player(s) available."

Let me ask another question, a related one: off the top of your head, do you know who Jaden McDaniels is? If so, do you think of him as a difference maker on the court?
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Re: 2024 Draft Thread - Part II 

Post#397 » by SUPERBALLMAN » Fri May 17, 2024 3:39 am

Here's a breakdown of the Wizards draft.

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Re: 2024 Draft Thread - Part II 

Post#398 » by SUPERBALLMAN » Fri May 17, 2024 4:43 am

At #2 I think I'm leaning Castle. Btw, on the subject of knee injuries (Topic), I was not aware Castle missed a month of the season with a meniscus injury. Is that something to consider or be concerned about?

The argument can be made he is BPA. At the combine he measured well at 6'6" with a 6"9" wingspan, and shot it well showing he is working on his man question mark and making progress. But overall, I like the whole package that is Stephon Castle, the competitiveness, the defense, the motor, the IQ, the team 1st selflessness style of play, the athleticism, the passing, the passion.

The play of Jordan Poole last season is something to be considered. Is the plan for Poole to be the PG? The current construction of the team includes a couple potential foundation pieces with Coulibaly (20), Vukcevic (21), and Avdija (23). And then we have Poole (25), Kispert (25), Bagley (25), and Butler (24). How Winger views this group is a question, and who do they view as long term building blocks.

Poole played at a high level once he was moved to the point, at least offensively, seemingly finding his comfort zone after a very rocky start to the season. And we've all seen the pics of Poole and Bilal hanging out together in France.

I gotta admit, part of my interest in Castle is how good of a fit IMO he would be next to Poole. All of Castles strengths address all of Poole's weak spots... Size, defense, effort,/hustle, IQ... I think I could really like a Poole/Castle backcourt.

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Re: 2024 Draft Thread - Part II 

Post#399 » by SUPERBALLMAN » Fri May 17, 2024 5:23 am

At #26 I'd be interested in several of the potential wings who could be available there... Kyshawn George, Dadiet, Djurisic, Flowers, Karaban.

But, a guy I have my eye increasingly on is 19 yr old PF Izan Almansa from Spain. Measured 6-9 with a 7-1 wingspan at the combine. He is a multi-skilled, high IQ, high motor player and high level rebounder. He is the type of player we have needed and have lacked seemingly forever.


The Ringer:

Almansa was considered a lottery pick prior to his underwhelming G League season.

Accomplished international big who projects as a versatile offensive hub and prolific rebounder.

SHADES OF: Kevin Love

Feel for the Game
Rebounding
PLUSES
Strong elbow and post playmaker with the ability to handle double-teams and locate shooters and cutters. His NBA team could use him in dribble handoffs since he can also dribble to the basket or turn his back into post-ups.

Beautiful post scorer who moves with purpose. He loves using spin moves straight into hook shots, and it works no matter the angle or the defensive contest. Sometimes, he’ll even do it with his left hand.

Fundamental screener and eager roller with amazing hands. Though he’s capable of dunking over defenders, he primarily finishes through length and contact using his soft touch. He’s patient and uses head and ball fakes to let defenders fly by when needed.

A potential short-roll menace if paired with the right point guard. He’s a strong dribbler and passer, and he also has a push floater that could punish defenses that leave him open. If his shot develops, his open-floor ballhandling would open up his game even more.

Elite rebounder on both ends with a nose for the ball. He’s like a magnet.

High-effort defender with the ability to play in different schemes. He’s nimble enough to switch or blitz.

MINUSES
Subpar free throw shooter and stiff from 3. At this stage, his shooting development is purely hypothetical. But how could someone with his soft touch not end up learning how to shoot 3s?

As a drop-coverage big man on defense, he’s more of a positional defender than an imposing shot blocker. And on the perimeter, he’s solid but not a stopper.


NBA Draft Room:

Draft Notes
Almansa is an incredibly productive and efficient player who might not be the flashiest player around but really gets it done on the court.

He’s an interior focused big man who loves to mix it up in the paint, plays with a lot of energy and effort and contributes in all aspects of the game.

Almansa has great hands, catching everything thrown his way and doing a great job of securing rebounds. He also has a really good feel for cutting and getting himself into position for layups, post scoring and positioning for rebounds. Has a natural feel for the game.

Moves very well up and down the court and is an overall plus athlete with agility, coordination and bounce.

Expanding his shooting range will be key to his success at the NBA level.

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Re: 2024 Draft Thread - Part II 

Post#400 » by SUPERBALLMAN » Fri May 17, 2024 5:41 am

Oh, and then at 51.... :nod:

Give me this guy! (unless Bona falls here)

22 yr old center N’Faly Dante. At the combine measured 6-10 with a 7-6 wingspan. I like the idea of rotating this guy with Vukcevic.

NBA Draft Room:

Dante has elite length, great mobility and surprising quickness for his size but is still very raw on the offensive end. Brings great energy to the court.

Draft Notes
Dante has elite physical tools pushing 7 feet tall, with a massive wingspan and good coordination and strength, he has a chance to become a special defensive talent. He goes after every shot around the rim and is an intimidating force who causes opponents to think twice before entering the lane.

Although Dante isn’t a polished offensive player he does have good hands and shows good timing on the offensive glass. He takes the ball hard to the rim and uses his impressive reach to get way above the rim with his dunks.

Shows some touch from mid range with a decent looking stroke, although he’s got a long ways to go on the offensive end.

His post game consists mostly of strong moves to the rim, including a power dribble and drop step move. He also has a nice right hand flip hook that he shoots with great height, making it nearly impossible to block.

Has good mobility and changes ends well. Can make plays in transition, showing off his coordination and great length.

Bleacher Report:

57. N’Faly Dante

School/Team: Oregon
Position: C
Size: 6-foot-11, 265 lbs
Age/Year: 22, Senior
Nationality: Malian
Pro comparison: Daniel Gafford
Through five postseason games between the NCAAs and Pac-12 tournament, Dante averaged 22.4 points on 74.6% shooting.

Even though he hasn’t expanded his range or added any ball-handling skill, he’s improved offensively in the paint with his footwork, poise and off-hand. A career 2.8 steal percentage is also extremely rare for a center.

Dante has become a name worth watching heading into the pre-draft process, and more impact two-way play at the combine could further strengthen his chances of being drafted.






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