Warriors - Raptors: {Brown, Wiggins & co}

[MessiahUjiri]

Warriors want to compete next year, duck the tax, and resign Klay. There realistically aren’t enough minutes at the forward spot to justify Wiggins salary.


Raptors want to cash out on Bruce Brown, take on youngish prospects, and are willing to take on additional salary, including via their 10.3M TPE.



Proposed trade:

Brown + Boucher + #31 {+ TPE}
for
Wiggins + Moody + GP3


Raps bring Wiggins home for a mental reset, and bring on Moody as Scottie’s high school teammate.

GSW get a dog role player in Brown, open up the full MLE, and sign a player of their liking.




Steph / Podz
Brown / Klay
Kuminga / {MLE}
Draymond / Boucher
Looney / TJD

+ ‘24 2 2nds, including the top pick of day 2 NBA Draft.

[mademan]

I like Moody, but Raps cant keep stocking up on high paid mid players. And Wiggins seems like he's back to his non-caring self. Dont think playing on a possible play in team is gonna motivate him

[Texas Chuck]

yeah Toronto needs to stop adding these kinds of players. Just let Brown walk and keep your 2nd. Because if Moody is okay, now you have to pay him which just compounds a bloated payroll for a mediocre roster.

And while this helps GSW financially, and doesn't hurt too much on the court from how Wiggins played this year, I think their only hope moving forward is for Wiggins to bounce back or to be able to move his salary with assets for a much better player than Brown.

And I know they probably are going to pay Klay some stupid amount over 2 years, they really shouldn't. Dude looks super cooked and if you are trimming salary to use an MLE, you start with not overpaying him, not trading Wiggins at a loss.

[MessiahUjiri]

yeah Toronto needs to stop adding these kinds of players. Just let Brown walk and keep your 2nd. Because if Moody is okay, now you have to pay him which just compounds a bloated payroll for a mediocre roster.

And while this helps GSW financially, and doesn't hurt too much on the court from how Wiggins played this year, I think their only hope moving forward is for Wiggins to bounce back or to be able to move his salary with assets for a much better player than Brown.

And I know they probably are going to pay Klay some stupid amount over 2 years, they really shouldn't. Dude looks super cooked and if you are trimming salary to use an MLE, you start with not overpaying him, not trading Wiggins at a loss.

I hear you, but GSW themselves have indicated that they want to bring Klay back, and also get under the tax.

So we have to operate under that assumption, which means Wiggins and GP2 are eating up more cap than their oncourt minute production.


For Toronto: The assumption here is that Moody would be better than the 31st pick. Yeah he will need to be paid, but they have the money and cap space. If Scottie is going to ask for a super max, let him prove himself.




Quickley
Barrett / Moody
Wiggins / Dick
Scottie
Poeltl / Olynyk

Plus #19 and MLE.


If they start the season poorly, trade Poeltl & Olynyk for ‘25 picks. There’s no size left, and they’ll get a top 10 pick.

[Texas Chuck]

Which team is giving you a gtd top 10 pick once the season starts for Poeltl/Olynyk? I find that pretty unlikely. You have to have a bad team or a team that owns a bad team's pick and have them willing to trade it to you with no protection for not one, but two goodish centers.

[gswhoops]

Which team is giving you a gtd top 10 pick once the season starts for Poeltl/Olynyk? I find that pretty unlikely. You have to have a bad team or a team that owns a bad team's pick and have them willing to trade it to you with no protection for not one, but two goodish centers.

I think they’re saying that after you trade them you tank for a top 10 pick

[islandboy53]

yeah Toronto needs to stop adding these kinds of players. Just let Brown walk and keep your 2nd. Because if Moody is okay, now you have to pay him which just compounds a bloated payroll for a mediocre roster.

And while this helps GSW financially, and doesn't hurt too much on the court from how Wiggins played this year, I think their only hope moving forward is for Wiggins to bounce back or to be able to move his salary with assets for a much better player than Brown.

And I know they probably are going to pay Klay some stupid amount over 2 years, they really shouldn't. Dude looks super cooked and if you are trimming salary to use an MLE, you start with not overpaying him, not trading Wiggins at a loss.

I hear you, but GSW themselves have indicated that they want to bring Klay back, and also get under the tax.

So we have to operate under that assumption, which means Wiggins and GP2 are eating up more cap than their oncourt minute production.


For Toronto: The assumption here is that Moody would be better than the 31st pick. Yeah he will need to be paid, but they have the money and cap space. If Scottie is going to ask for a super max, let him prove himself.




Quickley
Barrett / Moody
Wiggins / Dick
Scottie
Poeltl / Olynyk

Plus #19 and MLE.


If they start the season poorly, trade Poeltl & Olynyk for ‘25 picks. There’s no size left, and they’ll get a top 10 pick.

Scottie will get at least a 25% max starting in 25/26. Quickley will be making north of $25 million. Add Wiggins $28 million plus Moody's raise, and you have a team around the apron. That's a non starter for a team still on the development curve. Whether or not you think Wiggins fits the basketball needs of this team, he certainly doesn't fit salary wise.

[thejigglyroom]

yeah Toronto needs to stop adding these kinds of players. Just let Brown walk and keep your 2nd. Because if Moody is okay, now you have to pay him which just compounds a bloated payroll for a mediocre roster.

And while this helps GSW financially, and doesn't hurt too much on the court from how Wiggins played this year, I think their only hope moving forward is for Wiggins to bounce back or to be able to move his salary with assets for a much better player than Brown.

And I know they probably are going to pay Klay some stupid amount over 2 years, they really shouldn't. Dude looks super cooked and if you are trimming salary to use an MLE, you start with not overpaying him, not trading Wiggins at a loss.

I sure hope they don’t. I’m about as big a Klay fan as anyone but he’s done and it would best if he just moved on. As for Wiggins for Brown? Yeah, I’d rather just hold on to him on the chance he comes back healthy and motivated.

[MessiahUjiri]

Which team is giving you a gtd top 10 pick once the season starts for Poeltl/Olynyk? I find that pretty unlikely. You have to have a bad team or a team that owns a bad team's pick and have them willing to trade it to you with no protection for not one, but two goodish centers.

I think they’re saying that after you trade them you tank for a top 10 pick

Yeah. By trading the big guys, Raps will essentially become a tanking team.

One of the easier ways to tank is to not get depth, or just leave a glaring hole. This would be the case here.

I imagine them being a play in team with Poeltl. Without Poeltl / Olynyk, they sink to a top 10 pick.

[Texas Chuck]

Which team is giving you a gtd top 10 pick once the season starts for Poeltl/Olynyk? I find that pretty unlikely. You have to have a bad team or a team that owns a bad team's pick and have them willing to trade it to you with no protection for not one, but two goodish centers.

I think they’re saying that after you trade them you tank for a top 10 pick

Yeah. By trading the big guys, Raps will essentially become a tanking team.

One of the easier ways to tank is to not get depth, or just leave a glaring hole. This would be the case here.

I imagine them being a play in team with Poeltl. Without Poeltl / Olynyk, they sink to a top 10 pick.

Yeah my bad. Thanks to both of you for clarifying.

I don't think Poeltl is worth 4 or 5 wins like you project. Very few players actually are. But maybe I guess.

[Godaddycurse]

I think they’re saying that after you trade them you tank for a top 10 pick

Yeah. By trading the big guys, Raps will essentially become a tanking team.

One of the easier ways to tank is to not get depth, or just leave a glaring hole. This would be the case here.

I imagine them being a play in team with Poeltl. Without Poeltl / Olynyk, they sink to a top 10 pick.

Yeah my bad. Thanks to both of you for clarifying.

I don't think Poeltl is worth 4 or 5 wins like you project. Very few players actually are. But maybe I guess.

Its alot easier to get 4-5 extra wins vs other bottom feeders (which having poeltl will let us do) vs getting 4-5 wins vs good teams (which having poeltl or not wont make a diff as you alluded to)

[oldncreaky]

Yeah. By trading the big guys, Raps will essentially become a tanking team.

One of the easier ways to tank is to not get depth, or just leave a glaring hole. This would be the case here.

I imagine them being a play in team with Poeltl. Without Poeltl / Olynyk, they sink to a top 10 pick.

Yeah my bad. Thanks to both of you for clarifying.

I don't think Poeltl is worth 4 or 5 wins like you project. Very few players actually are. But maybe I guess.

Its alot easier to get 4-5 extra wins vs other bottom feeders (which having poeltl will let us do) vs getting 4-5 wins vs good teams (which having poeltl or not wont make a diff as you alluded to)

Over a full season, I think Poeltl is easily good for an extra 5 wins given the context: he provides things on the court -- rebounding, pick setting, rim protection, organising the D -- that Toronto otherwise doesn't have at all. I think if this Raptor roster goes a full season without a legit C it'll risk being down in the Detroit-Washington-Charlotte range

Poeltl doesn't raise the team's ceiling, but he sure does seem to raise the floor.

[docholliday99]

I think they’re saying that after you trade them you tank for a top 10 pick

Yeah. By trading the big guys, Raps will essentially become a tanking team.

One of the easier ways to tank is to not get depth, or just leave a glaring hole. This would be the case here.

I imagine them being a play in team with Poeltl. Without Poeltl / Olynyk, they sink to a top 10 pick.

Yeah my bad. Thanks to both of you for clarifying.

I don't think Poeltl is worth 4 or 5 wins like you project. Very few players actually are. But maybe I guess.

tbh, I think many under estimate Poeltl's impact on the Raptors, even during the train wreck of this past season - the team was 4-28 without him and 21-29 with him. Certainly not all him but the Raptors were definitely a disaster without him. It leaves me torn as I think the Raptors need more talent and it's a tantalizing draft coming in 2025. Might be best to trade him and stink again...I'm torn cause I love Purtle Power. If Wiggins can rebound playing in his home town, maybe okay idea? I worry of being a treadmill team cause it seems like something MU might pursue.

Among rotation players, Poeltl had the highest on-court rating on the team, at negative-0.6. He almost won his minutes! Toronto was virtually a .500 team when Poeltl was on the court. That’s, non-sarcastically, quite an accomplishment given … everything else … that happened this year.

https://www.raptorsrepublic.com/2024/05/03/jakob-poeltl-2023-24-season-in-review/

And then the core of IQ, Barrett, GTJ, Barnes, Poeltl (though small, suggests a positive direction)

Scottie Barnes, Immanuel Quickley, RJ Barrett, and Jakob Poeltl played just 501 total possessions together this season. Of those possessions 119 came with Pascal Siakam and another 22 came with Dennis Schröder, rendering those possessions generally meaningless.

That leaves 360 possessions — mostly with Gary Trent Jr. — from which the Raptors have to try to draw some conclusions.

Here’s what we know: Toronto was awesome when that group played together. They posted a net rating of 13.8, a number roughly on par with the Denver Nuggets starting lineup this season. They also scored 121.9 points per 100 possessions while surrendering just 108.1 points per 100 possessions. For context, those numbers are roughly on par with Boston’s starting lineup.

https://www.si.com/nba/raptors/reading-into-toronto-raptors-small-sample-size-of-lineup-data

[MessiahUjiri]

yeah Toronto needs to stop adding these kinds of players. Just let Brown walk and keep your 2nd. Because if Moody is okay, now you have to pay him which just compounds a bloated payroll for a mediocre roster.

And while this helps GSW financially, and doesn't hurt too much on the court from how Wiggins played this year, I think their only hope moving forward is for Wiggins to bounce back or to be able to move his salary with assets for a much better player than Brown.

And I know they probably are going to pay Klay some stupid amount over 2 years, they really shouldn't. Dude looks super cooked and if you are trimming salary to use an MLE, you start with not overpaying him, not trading Wiggins at a loss.

I hear you, but GSW themselves have indicated that they want to bring Klay back, and also get under the tax.

So we have to operate under that assumption, which means Wiggins and GP2 are eating up more cap than their oncourt minute production.


For Toronto: The assumption here is that Moody would be better than the 31st pick. Yeah he will need to be paid, but they have the money and cap space. If Scottie is going to ask for a super max, let him prove himself.




Quickley
Barrett / Moody
Wiggins / Dick
Scottie
Poeltl / Olynyk

Plus #19 and MLE.


If they start the season poorly, trade Poeltl & Olynyk for ‘25 picks. There’s no size left, and they’ll get a top 10 pick.

Scottie will get at least a 25% max starting in 25/26. Quickley will be making north of $25 million. Add Wiggins $28 million plus Moody's raise, and you have a team around the apron. That's a non starter for a team still on the development curve. Whether or not you think Wiggins fits the basketball needs of this team, he certainly doesn't fit salary wise.

Continue that train of thought:

Have you thought through what the NBA cap with the new TV deal will be in ‘26? All these guys will be signed based on the current deal, and it will look like peanuts.

Anyone suggesting a money crunch needs to understand the reality of the new deal that’s about to hit us in 2 years. Guys will be making $80M+ per year. Look it up.

[Godaddycurse]

I hear you, but GSW themselves have indicated that they want to bring Klay back, and also get under the tax.

So we have to operate under that assumption, which means Wiggins and GP2 are eating up more cap than their oncourt minute production.


For Toronto: The assumption here is that Moody would be better than the 31st pick. Yeah he will need to be paid, but they have the money and cap space. If Scottie is going to ask for a super max, let him prove himself.




Quickley
Barrett / Moody
Wiggins / Dick
Scottie
Poeltl / Olynyk

Plus #19 and MLE.


If they start the season poorly, trade Poeltl & Olynyk for ‘25 picks. There’s no size left, and they’ll get a top 10 pick.

Scottie will get at least a 25% max starting in 25/26. Quickley will be making north of $25 million. Add Wiggins $28 million plus Moody's raise, and you have a team around the apron. That's a non starter for a team still on the development curve. Whether or not you think Wiggins fits the basketball needs of this team, he certainly doesn't fit salary wise.

Continue that train of thought:

Have you thought through what the NBA cap with the new TV deal will be in ‘26? All these guys will be signed based on the current deal, and it will look like peanuts.

Anyone suggesting a money crunch needs to understand the reality of the new deal that’s about to hit us in 2 years. Guys will be making $80M+ per year. Look it up.

Arent they going to smooth the rises though

[Skybox]

Moody looks like he could be the next GTJ...all you need to do is triple his salary next summer.

[Texas Chuck]

So overpay guys now because you think players are making $80M in 2 years? That seems like a risky plan, but hey if the Raptors want to load up on $20-$40M players worth half their contracts thinking they will be paid to scale 2 years later, other teams will be thrilled.

Imagine what you could do if you didn't waste a bunch of cap space now and then still got the same cap increase as everyone else. Not sure what relevance the cap rising has on clogging your roster now.

[docholliday99]

Arent they going to smooth the rises though

10% increases every year. If that happens, the cap will hit $365,718,000 in 2035 - a supermax will start at 128m Just had to write that as it seems......unfathomable to me.

[MessiahUjiri]

So overpay guys now because you think players are making $80M in 2 years? That seems like a risky plan, but hey if the Raptors want to load up on $20-$40M players worth half their contracts thinking they will be paid to scale 2 years later, other teams will be thrilled.

Imagine what you could do if you didn't waste a bunch of cap space now and then still got the same cap increase as everyone else. Not sure what relevance the cap rising has on clogging your roster now.

Scottie & Moody won’t need to be paid until the ‘25-26 season. IIRC you can extend them a year earlier under the old tv deal.

This will be a big thing next offseason when a bunch of players get extended or signed to long term deals to front run the cap hit.

[docholliday99]

So overpay guys now because you think players are making $80M in 2 years? That seems like a risky plan, but hey if the Raptors want to load up on $20-$40M players worth half their contracts thinking they will be paid to scale 2 years later, other teams will be thrilled.

Imagine what you could do if you didn't waste a bunch of cap space now and then still got the same cap increase as everyone else. Not sure what relevance the cap rising has on clogging your roster now.

I don't think it's about growing into scale - which is a great point - but having to spend most of that space anyways to hit the floor. Just need to time it with the rest of the players' salaries. I don't mind Wiggins and like the idea of Moody but that would be if Trent left.

I'm really curious what the team does with Brown if the intent is to make an offseason trade. Brown/Bouch/#31 for Wiggins/Moody/GP2 is interesting.