Miami Heat Offseason Thread vol. 1: Post Mortem

[greg4012]

That's odd, I thought it had more to do with the FO maxing out Whiteside and handing out 4 year contracts to players like Waiters and J.Johnson, maybe matching a T.Johnson contract was in there too. Incredibly, they weren't even trying to create capspace to lure anyone to Miami, even with Butler forcing himself to sign in Miami the FO had to go through multiple hoops to be able to even find a way to make it work.


Well, there's that, their opinions on Herro when phrases like... "think better than Booker", making the Finals and letting your starting PF walk for a fair contract of 10 mil a year and trying to replace him with Mo Harkless so you could create cap room for Giannis who OBVIOUSLY was going to sign the super max in Milwaukee so Miami pivoted to placate Butler for letting Crowder walk by signing a past his prime Lowry because there was nobody else who possibly would move the needle that they could get. How about drafting a backup smallish C/PF with Maxey, Quickly and Bane on the board. Teams hit and miss in the draft which is why I loved the idea of Miami being that franchise that moved their picks for more proven players but outside of Rozier this last season, it's not really been happening. They thought Okpala was a 1st round talent, one of the picks they traded to take Okpala ended up being Bol Bol and he probably would have done better in Miami under Spoelstra than Okpala.

Have a day baby! All the greatest hits coming out. Can't believe the org isn't infallible in the face of doing what you previously lauded--always trying to compete.

It's Friday, my man. How did all of this stem from a discussion of considering trading for Trae if his value is depressed?

It came from you wanting to get younger and mediocre. I'd think a fan on this board who has a friend in the FO would want more for them.

Can you cool it with the personal projections? I want to get mediocre? I have a friend in the FO? What??!

Can we discuss bball without turning it into goofy adversarial attacking?

[AirP.]

Have a day baby! All the greatest hits coming out. Can't believe the org isn't infallible in the face of doing what you previously lauded--always trying to compete.

It's Friday, my man. How did all of this stem from a discussion of considering trading for Trae if his value is depressed?

It came from you wanting to get younger and mediocre. I'd think a fan on this board who has a friend in the FO would want more for them.

Can you cool it with the personal projections? I want to get mediocre? I have a friend in the FO? What??!

Can we discuss bball without turning it into goofy adversarial attacking?

Then don't start attacking. Sorry mods for this. Also sorry for the FO mention, wrong person, my bad.

[AirP.]

Back to posting some info.

Players under 25 who score at a rate of 20 points per 36 but don't score 20ppg. Most aren't gettable but a couple of them might be gettable to add some punch to Miami's offense without having to send a ton out. I also did the same query for players under 30 but it didn't add much to the list so keeping it to 25 and under. It's sorted by TS%.

Lonnie Walker's points per36 has been 19.0 the last 3 seasons in SA, LAL and Brk with at least 1000 minutes played each stop. He signed for 2 mil last year and in 5 years has only made just under 19 mil. If he's cheap I think it's worth the risk to have a NBA proven scorer on the bench.

Code: Select all

+------------------+---+--------+----+-----+----+-----+----+----+----+---+---+-----+----+----+---------+
|Player            |Age|Position|Team|Games|MPG |TSPCT|FGA |PPG |PP36|APG|RPG|3pt% |ORTG|DRTG|NetRating|
+------------------+---+--------+----+-----+----+-----+----+----+----+---+---+-----+----+----+---------+
|Jalen Smith       |23 |C       |61  |61   |17.2|0.682|6.5 |9.9 |20.7|1  |5.5|0.424|133 |117 |16       |
|Chet Holmgren     |21 |C       |82  |82   |29.4|0.632|11.6|16.5|20.2|2.4|7.9|0.37 |122 |108 |14       |
|Jalen Williams    |22 |PF      |71  |71   |31.3|0.621|14  |19.1|21.9|4.5|4  |0.427|122 |114 |8        |
|Collin Sexton     |25 |SG      |78  |78   |26.6|0.607|13.3|18.7|25.3|4.9|2.6|0.394|122 |123 |-1       |
|Jonathan Kuminga  |21 |PF      |74  |74   |26.3|0.598|11.6|16.1|21.9|2.2|4.8|0.321|117 |116 |1        |
|Immanuel Quickley |24 |SG      |30  |30   |24  |0.598|11.2|15  |22.5|2.5|2.6|0.395|123 |117 |6        |
|Naz Reid          |24 |C       |81  |81   |24.2|0.595|10.5|13.5|20  |1.3|5.2|0.414|111 |107 |4        |
|Devin Vassell     |23 |SG      |68  |68   |33.1|0.578|15.5|19.5|21.2|4.1|3.8|0.372|113 |118 |-5       |
|Franz Wagner      |22 |SF      |72  |72   |32.5|0.575|15.2|19.7|21.9|3.7|5.3|0.281|116 |112 |4        |
|Scottie Barnes    |22 |SG      |60  |60   |34.9|0.566|15.7|19.9|20.5|6.1|8.2|0.341|114 |116 |-2       |
|Immanuel Quickley |24 |PG      |38  |38   |33.3|0.564|14.7|18.6|20.1|6.8|4.8|0.395|117 |120 |-3       |
|Malik Monk        |25 |SG      |72  |72   |26  |0.564|12.4|15.4|21.3|5.1|2.9|0.35 |113 |117 |-4       |
|Bennedict Mathurin|21 |SF      |59  |59   |26.1|0.562|11.2|14.5|20  |2  |4  |0.374|110 |121 |-11      |
|Cam Whitmore      |19 |SF      |47  |47   |18.7|0.561|9.9 |12.3|23.7|0.7|3.8|0.359|109 |113 |-4       |
|GG Jackson II     |19 |PF      |48  |48   |25.7|0.554|11.7|14.6|20.4|1.2|4.1|0.357|107 |117 |-10      |
|Lonnie Walker IV  |25 |SG      |58  |58   |17.4|0.545|8.5 |9.7 |20.1|1.3|2.2|0.384|105 |117 |-12      |
|Jalen Green       |21 |SG      |82  |82   |31.7|0.541|16.2|19.6|22.3|3.5|5.2|0.332|107 |115 |-8       |
|RJ Barrett        |23 |SG      |26  |26   |29.5|0.536|14.9|18.2|22.3|2.4|4.3|0.331|110 |116 |-6       |
|Jordan Poole      |24 |SG      |78  |78   |30.1|0.529|15.2|17.4|20.8|4.4|2.7|0.326|102 |121 |-19      |
|Dalano Banton     |24 |PG      |30  |30   |29.2|0.508|15  |16.7|20.6|3.6|4.8|0.311|103 |117 |-14      |
+------------------+---+--------+----+-----+----+-----+----+----+----+---+---+-----+----+----+---------+

[greg4012]

It came from you wanting to get younger and mediocre. I'd think a fan on this board who has a friend in the FO would want more for them.

Can you cool it with the personal projections? I want to get mediocre? I have a friend in the FO? What??!

Can we discuss bball without turning it into goofy adversarial attacking?

Then don't start attacking. Sorry mods for this. Also sorry for the FO mention, wrong person, my bad.

That wasn't the start of anything. Not sure how that can be construed as attacking, but I do apologize for the facetious tone and taking your thoughts lightly. It just seemed like the rant machine was going off in an unrelated manner. Not sure what else I was supposed to say there when a lot was coming out that seemed off the topic of the basketball benefits of adding trae young. Were you not venting?

[carnageta]

Nash’s Suns teams were fun to watch

Ran into a Tim Duncan buzzsaw unfortunately for them

A well constructed team around Trae could yield similar success imo

Nash's Suns ousted Timmy D and the Spurs on numerous occasions. It was truly the Wild West from the mid-late 2000s. The year they did get past the Spurs, they ran into the Kobe/Gasol Lakers.

Nash/ D’Antoni Suns lost to the Spurs in the playoffs 3 times:
04/05 in the WCF 4-1
06/07 2nd round 4-2
07/08 1st round 4-1

That's true. I'm incorrect.

But that 06/07 series was straight up bs lol. Stoudemire and Dias suspended for stepping over a 'line' after Nash gets body checked

[MettaWorldPanda]

If the Nets want to make a splashy splash they flip Simmons and picks for Trae Young. That actually makes sense. You can sell Ice Trae in NY

[3ammy3uck3ts]

What’s the genuine trade offer for Trae Young? He makes 43 million a year. Herro and Robinson or Rozier are getting this done? Why are the Hawks doing this? Even if we include our 2029 pick and Jovic does it make sense for us?

I’d let them pick the 2 they prefer between Herro Duncan and Terry salary wise, shoot them a 1st and 1 of the young guys if necessary.

Hawks are ready to move on and apparently the market for Trae is weak, even weaker than Ingram. Hawks likely get a good young piece, a pick, and Herro who’s a much better fit next to Murray and they officially make Murray the lead guard. I mean Ingram will cost the same or more and only makes $7M less while being a worse player and a worse fit.

It definitely makes sense for us, he single handedly solves our offensive issues and he’s a 25 year old all star and all nba player. We need to take advantage of the depressed value of one of these guys this summer for sure.

I mean salary wise would you rather have Herro and Duncan (who have been viewed as negatives in our eyes on and off for years) or Trae? I think that’s pretty easy.

[SA37]

Perhaps, but I'd just remind everyone that Herro plays on the one of the most pathetically run offenses in the league. It may be one of those cases, like with Glen Rice or Jamal Mashburn, where Herro goes to another team and his output goes up simply because he has a different role and more offensive freedom. That may not be the case, but I am just saying it is possible.

Unless Herro goes to an expansion team, no one is giving Herro more freedom. Herro was 31st in the NBA in FGA.

It's a little worse than that, his rate of shots when playing was high enough at 18.8 FGA per36 to make him 20th overall in the NBA which is a higher rate than Jokic, KD, LeBron, Banchero, P.George, Kawhi, Lillard, Haliburton, Towns and so on, it's insane the amount of shots he put up. What I will say is that a good number of his shots were fine, he just takes some crazy low IQ shots multiple times per game like he's doing a heat check even if he's missed the previous 3 shots.

I'd just note that shooting volume doesn't equate to being in a (potentially) better offense. And, as I said, this of course could turn out not to be the case and Herro could end up elsewhere and show no improvement over his production in Miami.

And I think Herro's "heat-check" shots are one you kind of have to live with. He's hit big shots for Miami in the 4th quarter, and you need guys who are confident to take and make -- and miss -- those shots.

[eddieheatfan]

It came from you wanting to get younger and mediocre. I'd think a fan on this board who has a friend in the FO would want more for them.

Can you cool it with the personal projections? I want to get mediocre? I have a friend in the FO? What??!

Can we discuss bball without turning it into goofy adversarial attacking?

Then don't start attacking. Sorry mods for this. Also sorry for the FO mention, wrong person, my bad.

WaTcHouT ALT?

[AirP.]

Unless Herro goes to an expansion team, no one is giving Herro more freedom. Herro was 31st in the NBA in FGA.

It's a little worse than that, his rate of shots when playing was high enough at 18.8 FGA per36 to make him 20th overall in the NBA which is a higher rate than Jokic, KD, LeBron, Banchero, P.George, Kawhi, Lillard, Haliburton, Towns and so on, it's insane the amount of shots he put up. What I will say is that a good number of his shots were fine, he just takes some crazy low IQ shots multiple times per game like he's doing a heat check even if he's missed the previous 3 shots.

I'd just note that shooting volume doesn't equate to being in a (potentially) better offense. And, as I said, this of course could turn out not to be the case and Herro could end up elsewhere and show no improvement over his production in Miami.

And I think Herro's "heat-check" shots are one you kind of have to live with. He's hit big shots for Miami in the 4th quarter, and you need guys who are confident to take and make -- and miss -- those shots.

No, you don't have to live with heat-checks from a player who's TS% is below the league average and is a terrible defender at 30 mil a year.

The league average for TS% this year was .580.
Miami as a team has a TS% of .578 which was good for 16th in the NBA and overall under the league average.
Miami without Herro's stats get them to league average for TS% at .580.

The league average for calculated ORTG was 115.3
Miami's calculated ORTG was 114.
Herro's calculated ORTG was 108 (which is about what he's given Miami the last 3 years).

If Herro were a 2 way player, it wouldn't be as bad, but he's being paid 30 million a year as a known negative defender, so the expectation is that he'll be an efficient scorer on the other end and that's not happening nor has it every happened and he's been in the NBA for now a half a decade meaning he's had 5 offseasons to work with professional trainers to become a better player for Miami and although he's gotten better in some situations, he's basically giving Miami the same numbers except he's shooting more.

I'm not so sure Rozier was the answer although I think Rozier was brought in to replace Herro's numbers on a little cheaper contract and being a little bit better defender than Herro. Rozier's first few weeks with Miami, he had 0 practices with his new teammates and it looked like it, his stats were bad but his last 21 games after missing 4 games (Miami won all 4 of those games), he put up 18.2 pts, 4.2 ast, 4.0 reb on .561 TS which are basically Herro numbers but making 4-5 million less than Herro. It's quite possible that with an offseason Spoelstra can better gameplan for using Rozier but with him never having a TS% .575 I'm not sure he's going to be any better than what Herro was for Miami (if he's basically replacing Herro's shots next year).

[Rapaz]

Watch on YouTube

Boys,

You just don’t have nearly what it will take to land this supreme talent.

Y’all got Berkin dreams with a Bertans budget.

Sad for y’all.

Xoxo

[Wiltside]

Watch on YouTube

Boys,

You just don’t have nearly what it will take to land this supreme talent.

Y’all got Berkin dreams with a Bertans budget.

Sad for y’all.

Xoxo

Just noticed the sig

Offszn Rapaz never lets us down

[3ammy3uck3ts]

It's a little worse than that, his rate of shots when playing was high enough at 18.8 FGA per36 to make him 20th overall in the NBA which is a higher rate than Jokic, KD, LeBron, Banchero, P.George, Kawhi, Lillard, Haliburton, Towns and so on, it's insane the amount of shots he put up. What I will say is that a good number of his shots were fine, he just takes some crazy low IQ shots multiple times per game like he's doing a heat check even if he's missed the previous 3 shots.

I'd just note that shooting volume doesn't equate to being in a (potentially) better offense. And, as I said, this of course could turn out not to be the case and Herro could end up elsewhere and show no improvement over his production in Miami.

And I think Herro's "heat-check" shots are one you kind of have to live with. He's hit big shots for Miami in the 4th quarter, and you need guys who are confident to take and make -- and miss -- those shots.

No, you don't have to live with heat-checks from a player who's TS% is below the league average and is a terrible defender at 30 mil a year.

The league average for TS% this year was .580.
Miami as a team has a TS% of .578 which was good for 16th in the NBA and overall under the league average.
Miami without Herro's stats get them to league average for TS% at .580.

The league average for calculated ORTG was 115.3
Miami's calculated ORTG was 114.
Herro's calculated ORTG was 108 (which is about what he's given Miami the last 3 years).

If Herro were a 2 way player, it wouldn't be as bad, but he's being paid 30 million a year as a known negative defender, so the expectation is that he'll be an efficient scorer on the other end and that's not happening nor has it every happened and he's been in the NBA for now a half a decade meaning he's had 5 offseasons to work with professional trainers to become a better player for Miami and although he's gotten better in some situations, he's basically giving Miami the same numbers except he's shooting more.

I'm not so sure Rozier was the answer although I think Rozier was brought in to replace Herro's numbers on a little cheaper contract and being a little bit better defender than Herro. Rozier's first few weeks with Miami, he had 0 practices with his new teammates and it looked like it, his stats were bad but his last 21 games after missing 4 games (Miami won all 4 of those games), he put up 18.2 pts, 4.2 ast, 4.0 reb on .561 TS which are basically Herro numbers but making 4-5 million less than Herro. It's quite possible that with an offseason Spoelstra can better gameplan for using Rozier but with him never having a TS% .575 I'm not sure he's going to be any better than what Herro was for Miami (if he's basically replacing Herro's shots next year).

Herro has an INSANE leash with this fanbase

[3ammy3uck3ts]

Read on Twitter

Add another to the list that will have more interest than Trae if Mitchell signs his extension, swoop in quick for Trae and get it done.

[carnageta]

It's a little worse than that, his rate of shots when playing was high enough at 18.8 FGA per36 to make him 20th overall in the NBA which is a higher rate than Jokic, KD, LeBron, Banchero, P.George, Kawhi, Lillard, Haliburton, Towns and so on, it's insane the amount of shots he put up. What I will say is that a good number of his shots were fine, he just takes some crazy low IQ shots multiple times per game like he's doing a heat check even if he's missed the previous 3 shots.

I'd just note that shooting volume doesn't equate to being in a (potentially) better offense. And, as I said, this of course could turn out not to be the case and Herro could end up elsewhere and show no improvement over his production in Miami.

And I think Herro's "heat-check" shots are one you kind of have to live with. He's hit big shots for Miami in the 4th quarter, and you need guys who are confident to take and make -- and miss -- those shots.

No, you don't have to live with heat-checks from a player who's TS% is below the league average and is a terrible defender at 30 mil a year.

The league average for TS% this year was .580.
Miami as a team has a TS% of .578 which was good for 16th in the NBA and overall under the league average.
Miami without Herro's stats get them to league average for TS% at .580.

The league average for calculated ORTG was 115.3
Miami's calculated ORTG was 114.
Herro's calculated ORTG was 108 (which is about what he's given Miami the last 3 years).

If Herro were a 2 way player, it wouldn't be as bad, but he's being paid 30 million a year as a known negative defender, so the expectation is that he'll be an efficient scorer on the other end and that's not happening nor has it every happened and he's been in the NBA for now a half a decade meaning he's had 5 offseasons to work with professional trainers to become a better player for Miami and although he's gotten better in some situations, he's basically giving Miami the same numbers except he's shooting more.

I'm not so sure Rozier was the answer although I think Rozier was brought in to replace Herro's numbers on a little cheaper contract and being a little bit better defender than Herro. Rozier's first few weeks with Miami, he had 0 practices with his new teammates and it looked like it, his stats were bad but his last 21 games after missing 4 games (Miami won all 4 of those games), he put up 18.2 pts, 4.2 ast, 4.0 reb on .561 TS which are basically Herro numbers but making 4-5 million less than Herro. It's quite possible that with an offseason Spoelstra can better gameplan for using Rozier but with him never having a TS% .575 I'm not sure he's going to be any better than what Herro was for Miami (if he's basically replacing Herro's shots next year).

league average TS% (for a guard) was 57%. Herro shot 56%. With a smarter shot selection Herro could definitely improve his TS%.

[3ammy3uck3ts]

Garland having more interest than Trae is pretty wild, Trae is a far better player and Garland so far is a playoff choker. Hes closer to Herro than he is Trae

[marson]

Garland having more interest than Trae is pretty wild, Trae is a far better player and Garland so far is a playoff choker. Hes closer to Herro than he is Trae

Trae is one of the most underrated and hated player in the league. Give this dude better coach and teammates and I think he has another level in his game.

[MettaWorldPanda]

Vucevic and Caruso seem like more realistic targets to go after considering what we have to work with in trade. Riley telegraphed the offseason. He’s looking to strengthen the bench and get the right pieces around Bam and Butler. Going for a 43 million dollar Trae Young imo is not what he has in mind based off those comments.

[3ammy3uck3ts]

Garland having more interest than Trae is pretty wild, Trae is a far better player and Garland so far is a playoff choker. Hes closer to Herro than he is Trae

Trae is one of the most underrated and hated player in the league. Give this dude better coach and teammates and I think he has another level in his game.

Yea he’d be seen in a completely different light if we were to get him.

I remember just 2 years ago they were supposed to beat us in the playoffs because he was the undisputed best player in the series

[3ammy3uck3ts]

Vucevic and Caruso seem like more realistic targets to go after considering what we have to work with in trade. Riley telegraphed the offseason. He’s looking to strengthen the bench and get the right pieces around Bam and Butler. Going for a 43 million dollar Trae Young imo is not what he has in mind based off those comments.

Caruso is going to be an amazing fit next to Mitchell or Trae