Utah/OKC no Markannen

[Texas Chuck]

#12

for

Kessler
Worse of 25 CLE/MIN 1st (top 18 protected, becomes 29 and 30 UTH 2nds)

Jazz sell high on Kessler, reset the rookie clock.

Thunder go get a rebounding/rim protecting backup center who you can spot some Chet minutes at the 4 next to. Cheap for 2 more years so doesn't hinder any other moves. Pushes a lottery pick back to a likely late 1st next year, keeping the asset train flowing.

[Godaddycurse]

I think they can just sign a FA if they need a big back up C

[Texas Chuck]

I think they can just sign a FA if they need a big back up C

They absolutely can. But they can't sign one as good as Kessler for what Kessler makes. The idea of this is it costs none of their cap space.

[MoneyTalks41890]

I like Kessler as the big body rebounding backup center. Price is probably fine here. Depends on other opportunities.

[HadAnEffectHere]

This is reasonably possible but would be a pretty terrible move for both sides.

Kessler showed top 12 center potential in his rookie season, but struggled in his second season for two reasons.

1. He's afraid of getting fouled due to his poor FT%, this has to be fixed or he'll always be limited on offense.
2. Will Hardy hates non-shooters and benched him for being unable to shoot threes... Which is pretty stupid but Hardy is just an awful coach with no real brain. This really hurt his confidence, especially since Hardy kept forcing him to shoot threes and it felt like a public humiliation exercise.

This introduces huge problems for both sides:

1. Utah is getting a mediocre draft pick. I'm going to calculate this out soon, but the smoothed expected peak VORP of the 12th pick I'm pretty sure is lower than Kessler's... rookie year VORP... Which would be a pretty awful return. The idea could be that they grab a higher upside guy than Kessler, but this draft is desperately lacking in high end upside which is why it's so badly regarded. There is basically no high end athleticism in this class other than Sarr (horrible offensive player), Knecht (23 years old), and Ryan Dunn (much worse offense than Thybulle...).

2. Kessler's confidence is really low due to being with a coach who thinks that non-shooters suck and now he would be being traded to........ The Thunder? Who famously think non-shooters suck? This will probably not bring back Kessler's confidence.

Kessler would probably thrive on a team like the Knicks and is much more questionable on the Thunder.

[brackdan70]

I like this idea for both teams though I question if Utah needs to include that pick?
Seems like Kessler for 12 in this draft is pretty close in value?

[HadAnEffectHere]

The other points I would bring up about a Kessler trade.

1. The Jazz have a billion whatever prospects and whatever picks. Adding the 12th pick to get another whatever prospect doesn't seem to help them at all. Oh golly, another mid first to add to our army of mid firsts??? Where can they sign??? Kessler for the 2031 Suns first at least has upside.

2. Hardy obviously doesn't value Kessler at all as a player as Hardy doesn't care about defense and cares heavily about shooting, but Ainge may refuse to trade Kessler because he feels his value is depressed heavily from last year and Ainge may feel ripped off in a trade.

[Texas Chuck]

I like this idea for both teams though I question if Utah needs to include that pick?
Seems like Kessler for 12 in this draft is pretty close in value?

IDK? I started with pick 29 instead of the future pick, but I decided OKC was due more value in a 12 for Kessler swap. But for sure I could be tilting it too far their direction. And if OKC thought Kessler's cheap salary and skillset made for a nice addition, they might not worry too much about it?

But I settled on 12 being more valuable than Kessler by a clear but not huge amount. YMMV

[Texas Chuck]

I mean sure if you can get a team to give you a totally unprotected future pick for Kessler you should absolutely do that instead. As always if you can get returns in excess of a player's worth do that. I just didn't realize the Suns were offering a future unprotected first for a backup center when they have much larger needs and almost no assets to work with.

[HadAnEffectHere]

I mean sure if you can get a team to give you a totally unprotected future pick for Kessler you should absolutely do that instead. As always if you can get returns in excess of a player's worth do that. I just didn't realize the Suns were offering a future unprotected first for a backup center when they have much larger needs and almost no assets to work with.

Kessler had a 2.9 BPM as a rookie!

2.9!

Nurkic had one year in his entire career above that mark!

Nurkic also sabotaged the Suns completely on offense because he had to have the ball constantly due to how bad he is at the rim. Getting a good center is their #1 priority.

Yes, Kessler's a backup now because his coach thinks all non-shooter suck.

He's probably not going to get much value because his coach hates all non-shooters.

But because he doesn't have much value, Ainge probably won't trade him as Ainge is a weird hoarder, pretty bad combo.

I'm really annoyed by the very strong reputation Hardy still has in the NBA despite his terrible philosophies. Hardy just does not care at all about defense and tells every player on the Jazz to crash the offensive glass and just surrenders transition scoring at will.

Hardy lead the Jazz to the worst defense... In NBA history last year...

Hardy is just so stupid it's actually unreal, no **** he benched a traditional center.

https://www.deseret.com/2023/10/18/23921641/learning-to-stretch-the-floor-the-next-evolution-for-walker-kessler/

It’s not like the Jazz are looking for Kessler to start bombing 10 3-pointers a game or expect him to be a 40% shooter, but Hardy does want him taking the shot when it’s open, and with the addition of John Collins to the Jazz roster, it makes a lot of sense.

Hardy demanding a 25% 3P shooter to take open threes is a good demonstration of how there's a lot wrong with this guy.

[jazzfan1971]

For me, this isn't close. I'm sad to see folks value him this lowly.

But I'm confident that Ainge would also see this as a huge underpay so I guess it's not a problem.

[HadAnEffectHere]

Also "hur durr, who would trade unprotected picks for a bench player."

Bro, you do know that the Mavs traded an unprotected swap for Grant Williams last year, right.

Grant Williams, a backup PF who never produced very much and often ate DNPs.

Now, this was a catastrophe, but.

Then the Mavs followed this up by trading ANOTHER unprotected swap for a guy who they plan to be their backup center of the future in Gafford.

And Kessler is a 2nd year guy who will be much better if he gets over his fear of being fouled.

This is like me reducing down Anthony Black by saying "oh, who would trade an unprotected pick for a guy getting DNPs."

[Texas Chuck]

Also "hur durr, who would trade unprotected picks for a bench player."

Bro, you do know that the Mavs traded an unprotected swap for Grant Williams last year, right.

Grant Williams, a backup PF who never produced very much and often ate DNPs.

Now, this was a catastrophe, but.

Then the Mavs followed this up by trading ANOTHER unprotected swap for a guy who they plan to be their backup center of the future in Gafford.

And Kessler is a 2nd year guy who will be much better if he gets over his fear of being fouled.

This is like me reducing down Anthony Black by saying "oh, who would trade an unprotected pick for a guy getting DNPs."

Relax mate. I was critical of Dallas for giving up those swaps. And Phoenix is in a different situation. Dallas was overpaying to address primary needs. Phoenix would be overpaying and not addressing a primary need. It;s not that he's a backup in Utah that's the issue. It's what his role would be for the team trading for him. I have him in a backup in OKC too but filling a clear hole in they don't have a guy like this. He doesn't do that for Phoenix so they shouldn't over pay imo.

Again if you can get teams to overpay for things they don't need in ways that benefit your favorite team, always always do that. I just prefer to not approach things that way.

You are so fixated on "winning" every argument and getting value for Utah you are ignoring all meaningful context.

Its cool you hate this idea. Not every idea I have is good by a long shot. But your reasoning is just all over the map here.

[mg]

I'm a Kessler fan and think #12 for him straight up is a decent deal for both teams. Jazz also own #29 and #32 in this draft so maybe one of those could also go out but don't see Ainge trading any future picks in this type of deal. Truth of the matter is Utah will be doing a lot of churning of the roster over the next few years. They should probably keep Kessler but their coach seems to prefer all 5 guys on the court be able to shoot.

Wouldn't be surprised to see OKC chase someone like Hartenstein in FA but he's going to be expensive. They have a few guys they need to resign in the next 2 years who will also be getting big contracts. I could also see them maybe try to trade for someone like Jarrett Allen who is on a reasonable contract the next 2 years but there really doesn't seem to be a great trade fit between them and the Cavs who also need "win now" players.

[eminence]

Not interested even if the pick from Utah was removed.

[AingesBurner]

I feel like could combined their current picks and Kessler to move in the draft.