Reed Sheppard and Rob Dillingham - 2024 NBA Draft

[kobyz]

Reed reminds me of Terry Porter

[JMAC3]

Coach Cal Guards are known for getting the NBA bump, but if you actually look at the guys he has brought in as top recruits it's about 50/50 on whether it worked out.

Good List (RSCI Rank)
John Wall (2)
Bledsoe (52)
Booker (23)
Jamal Murray (73)
Fox (6)
Monk (9)
SGA (30)
Tyler Herro (35)
Immanuel Quickley (14)
Tyrese Maxey (10)
Cason Wallace (10)

Bad List (RSCI Rank)
Brandon Knight (4)
Marquis Teague (7)
Archie Goodwin (10)
James Young (9)
Aaron Harrison (6)
Andrew Harrison (5)
Isaiah Briscoe (11)
Quade Green (23)
Ashton Hagans (14)
Brandon Boston (4)
TyTy Washington (14)

This years crop
Justin Edwards (3)
DJ Wagner (6)
Rob Dillingham (14)
Reed Sheppard (33)

[Notanoob]

Coach Cal Guards are known for getting the NBA bump, but if you actually look at the guys he has brought in as top recruits it's about 50/50 on whether it worked out.

Good List (RSCI Rank)
John Wall (2)
Bledsoe (52)
Booker (23)
Jamal Murray (73)
Fox (6)
Monk (9)
SGA (30)
Tyler Herro (35)
Immanuel Quickley (14)
Tyrese Maxey (10)
Cason Wallace (10)

Bad List (RSCI Rank)
Brandon Knight (4)
Marquis Teague (7)
Archie Goodwin (10)
James Young (9)
Aaron Harrison (6)
Andrew Harrison (5)
Isaiah Briscoe (11)
Quade Green (23)
Ashton Hagans (14)
Brandon Boston (4)
TyTy Washington (14)

This years crop
Justin Edwards (3)
DJ Wagner (6)
Rob Dillingham (14)
Reed Sheppard (33)

I don't think it's just that they got a bump, it's that they overperform based on how they produced in college. A lot of these guys' stats weren't all that impressive compared to what was expected of them in college, and compared to how good they were in the NBA. In any event, I think it's obvious that Sheppard is going to be a great player.

[CptCrunch]

Coach Cal Guards are known for getting the NBA bump, but if you actually look at the guys he has brought in as top recruits it's about 50/50 on whether it worked out.

Good List (RSCI Rank)
John Wall (2)
Bledsoe (52)
Booker (23)
Jamal Murray (73)
Fox (6)
Monk (9)
SGA (30)
Tyler Herro (35)
Immanuel Quickley (14)
Tyrese Maxey (10)
Cason Wallace (10)

Bad List (RSCI Rank)
Brandon Knight (4)
Marquis Teague (7)
Archie Goodwin (10)
James Young (9)
Aaron Harrison (6)
Andrew Harrison (5)
Isaiah Briscoe (11)
Quade Green (23)
Ashton Hagans (14)
Brandon Boston (4)
TyTy Washington (14)

This years crop
Justin Edwards (3)
DJ Wagner (6)
Rob Dillingham (14)
Reed Sheppard (33)

Good has mean RSCI of 24, median of 14.

Bad has mean RSCI of 9.7, median of 9.

One theme I see based on small sample size is that you want to be better than expected and not play worse than your RSCI. Calipari guards who outplayed their position (RSCI wise) typically had higher chances of being good. In fact in the bad category, not a single guard outplayed their RSCI rank, with the only close one being Brandon Knight. Brandon Knight also turned out to not be (that bad) at basketball.

By this metric, Reed looks good. Dilly a bit sus.

Code: Select all

|Name                    | RSCI|Pick      |Year  |Team                  |G/B |
|:-----------------------|----:|:---------|:-----|:---------------------|:---|
|John Wall               |    2|1         |2010  |Washington Wizards    |G   |
|Eric Bledsoe            |   52|18        |2010  |Oklahoma City Thunder |G   |
|Devin Booker            |   23|13        |2015  |Phoenix Suns          |G   |
|Jamal Murray            |   73|7         |2016  |Denver Nuggets        |G   |
|DeAaron Fox             |    6|5         |2017  |Sacramento Kings      |G   |
|Malik Monk              |    9|11        |2017  |Charlotte Hornets     |G   |
|Shai Gilgeous-Alexander |   30|11        |2018  |Los Angeles Clippers  |G   |
|Tyler Herro             |   35|13        |2019  |Miami Heat            |G   |
|Immanuel Quickley       |   14|25        |2020  |New York Knicks       |G   |
|Tyrese Maxey            |   10|21        |2020  |Philadelphia 76ers    |G   |
|Cason Wallace           |   10|10        |20223 |Dallas Mavericks      |G   |
|Brandon Knight          |    4|8         |2011  |Detroit Pistons       |B   |
|Marquis Teague          |    7|29        |2012  |Chicago Bulls         |B   |
|Archie Goodwin          |   10|29        |2013  |Golden State Warriors |B   |
|James Young             |    9|17        |2014  |Boston Celtics        |B   |
|Aaron Harrison          |    6|51        |2015  |Charlotte Hornets     |B   |
|Andrew Harrison         |    5|44        |2015  |Phoenix Suns          |B   |
|Isaiah Briscoe          |   11|Undrafted |N/A   |N/A                   |B   |
|Quade Green             |   23|Undrafted |N/A   |N/A                   |B   |
|Ashton Hagans           |   14|Undrafted |N/A   |N/A                   |B   |
|Brandon Boston Jr.      |    4|51        |2021  |Los Angeles Clippers  |B   |
|TyTy Washington Jr.     |   14|29        |2022  |Houston Rockets       |B   |

[clyde21]

im confused, did Dilly not outplay his RSCI?

[FarBeyondDriven]

first issue is relying on RSCI ranks from "experts"

https://sites.google.com/site/rscihoops/home/the-experts

I mean, who are these people that I should care about their opinions when they're wrong all the time?

This is where the cracks start showing in this whole process. These often clueless experts don't know how to evaluate prospects but they provide their rankings nonetheless. More visible and supposedly "connected" gurus take these rankings, guys like Givony, Vecenie, etc., and create narratives a year in advance, even before playing in college/overseasons/Ignite, about whether certain prospects or draft classes are good or not.

The draft prospects and rankings of these kids they used to create these narratives are often completely different by the time the actual draft comes around. When these people decided this was a weak draft class they were basing it on an almost completely different talent pool than what we have right now. It's laughable.

The reason why Kentucky guards go on to outplay their RSCI and have success in the pros is because the college and pro games are completely different. Calipari is worried about getting all his kids drafted not just some of them. When he convinced Wagner to go to Kentucky he had to promise him minutes and deliver. If he screwed him over that could affect his recruitment in the future. That's why he was starting Wagner over Dillingham and Sheppard despite them being better. With all the mouths to feed and defense a priority, high usage and numbers from individuals aren't prioritized. When they get to the NBA where coaches don't really care about defense, spacing is better and a premium is put on guys that can get buckets, these Kentucky guards shine since they're no longer being held back.

What the successes seem to have in common is they're scorers with bags and quickness/athleticism. That's why it's a safe bet that Dillingham will continue to the trend of Kentucky guards having big success in the NBA. Sheppard doesn't fit this mold so placing this expectation on him isn't fair. NBA coaches can live with bad defense from Maxey and Herro because they can score. They won't live with Sheppard being a defensive liability since he isn't.

[SelfishPlayer]

This has to be the first time in history that two freshman bench players on the same team are projected to go lottery.

[FarBeyondDriven]

was just looking at Sheppard's stats and it's telling that people wanted him to start over Wagner yet in Sheppard's 5 starts, Kentucky was 1-4 and in those starts his 3 pt % dropped down to 43% which is still great but not otherworldly like the rest of his games. So much of Reed's production is due to being wide open or having big games against even smaller PGs than him. I continue to struggle to see how he can stay on the floor with his defense and lack of on-ball creation.

[bucknut]

Man the dilly archetype is not my preference. The maxey garland waterbug 160 lb thin build just aesthetically and the play style that comes with that.....oftentimes inefficiency

Maxey works because he has a different level of straight line speed. Dilly doesn't have that. Garland to me....looked like trash in the playoffs

What have we done going to Jamal Crawford at point guards ?? The Jason kidd era they didn't score enough....Lillard types are a nice balance and built like a point. .but now we are putting undersized wings at point

Imo there is a reason Jamal Crawford played for 10 teams.....I don't see dilly impact winning. I guarantee he is not a pop type of player

Reed impacts winning. He doesn't shoot just to freaking shoot....he makes the right play. These 2 are very different players

[SelfishPlayer]

Man the dilly archetype is not my preference. The maxey garland waterbug 160 lb thin build just aesthetically and the play style that comes with that.....oftentimes inefficiency

Maxey works because he has a different level of straight line speed. Dilly doesn't have that. Garland to me....looked like trash in the playoffs

What have we done going to Jamal Crawford at point guards ?? The Jason kidd era they didn't score enough....Lillard types are a nice balance and built like a point. .but now we are putting undersized wings at point

Imo there is a reason Jamal Crawford played for 10 teams.....I don't see dilly impact winning. I guarantee he is not a pop type of player

Reed impacts winning. He doesn't shoot just to freaking shoot....he makes the right play. These 2 are very different players

Just look at what a lessor talented former Kentucky player in Immanuel Quickley was able to do in Toronto after he was traded at age 24. Dillingham is only 19 and will not turn 20 until January.

[OriAr]

was just looking at Sheppard's stats and it's telling that people wanted him to start over Wagner yet in Sheppard's 5 starts, Kentucky was 1-4 and in those starts his 3 pt % dropped down to 43% which is still great but not otherworldly like the rest of his games. So much of Reed's production is due to being wide open or having big games against even smaller PGs than him. I continue to struggle to see how he can stay on the floor with his defense and lack of on-ball creation.

He also played nearly 38 minutes per game when he started (Including 45 minutes against Florida), he could have very well been gassed and let it affect his shooting, that's a heavy minute load by NBA standards, let alone college.
Also, to state the obvious, it's a small sample size, he went 12 out of 28, two more 3s and he's exactly at 50%, can't draw many conclusions from a sample size this small.

[Dat2U]

Man the dilly archetype is not my preference. The maxey garland waterbug 160 lb thin build just aesthetically and the play style that comes with that.....oftentimes inefficiency

Maxey works because he has a different level of straight line speed. Dilly doesn't have that. Garland to me....looked like trash in the playoffs

What have we done going to Jamal Crawford at point guards ?? The Jason kidd era they didn't score enough....Lillard types are a nice balance and built like a point. .but now we are putting undersized wings at point

Imo there is a reason Jamal Crawford played for 10 teams.....I don't see dilly impact winning. I guarantee he is not a pop type of player

Reed impacts winning. He doesn't shoot just to freaking shoot....he makes the right play. These 2 are very different players

I can understand not liking the archetype but this is too much a judgement using Jamal Crawford as evidence when Rob is not even the same type of player. Rob has PG skill IMO. He's first and foremost is a shot creator but what separates him from the Bones, LouWill & JCraw comparison is he was willing to get others involved and didn't shot hunt to the extent he did in his other stops. He also excelled off the ball and was deadly in C&S situations.

He's not Trae Young in terms of setting up others but Trae also is arguably the best in the league at this. I think the Garland comparisons make alot of sense and Garland on-the-ball is an all-star quality guard. I also view Dilly with slightly more 'juice' than Garland coming out.

Size absolutely matters but it's still a league dominated by skill and Dilly is the most skilled freshman we've seen in a few seasons. In a draft filled with flawed prospects, he's the best shot creator available.

[Dat2U]

first issue is relying on RSCI ranks from "experts"

https://sites.google.com/site/rscihoops/home/the-experts

I mean, who are these people that I should care about their opinions when they're wrong all the time?

This is where the cracks start showing in this whole process. These often clueless experts don't know how to evaluate prospects but they provide their rankings nonetheless. More visible and supposedly "connected" gurus take these rankings, guys like Givony, Vecenie, etc., and create narratives a year in advance, even before playing in college/overseasons/Ignite, about whether certain prospects or draft classes are good or not.

The draft prospects and rankings of these kids they used to create these narratives are often completely different by the time the actual draft comes around. When these people decided this was a weak draft class they were basing it on an almost completely different talent pool than what we have right now. It's laughable.

The reason why Kentucky guards go on to outplay their RSCI and have success in the pros is because the college and pro games are completely different. Calipari is worried about getting all his kids drafted not just some of them. When he convinced Wagner to go to Kentucky he had to promise him minutes and deliver. If he screwed him over that could affect his recruitment in the future. That's why he was starting Wagner over Dillingham and Sheppard despite them being better. With all the mouths to feed and defense a priority, high usage and numbers from individuals aren't prioritized. When they get to the NBA where coaches don't really care about defense, spacing is better and a premium is put on guys that can get buckets, these Kentucky guards shine since they're no longer being held back.

What the successes seem to have in common is they're scorers with bags and quickness/athleticism. That's why it's a safe bet that Dillingham will continue to the trend of Kentucky guards having big success in the NBA. Sheppard doesn't fit this mold so placing this expectation on him isn't fair. NBA coaches can live with bad defense from Maxey and Herro because they can score. They won't live with Sheppard being a defensive liability since he isn't.

I think there's a world where Sheppard defends 2s and survives because he's strong enough to hold up and he'll be excellent off the ball shooting passing lanes. I would worry if he was stuck on 1s because he is a blow-by waiting to happen there.

[EMG518]

Man the dilly archetype is not my preference. The maxey garland waterbug 160 lb thin build just aesthetically and the play style that comes with that.....oftentimes inefficiency

Maxey works because he has a different level of straight line speed. Dilly doesn't have that. Garland to me....looked like trash in the playoffs

What have we done going to Jamal Crawford at point guards ?? The Jason kidd era they didn't score enough....Lillard types are a nice balance and built like a point. .but now we are putting undersized wings at point

Imo there is a reason Jamal Crawford played for 10 teams.....I don't see dilly impact winning. I guarantee he is not a pop type of player

Reed impacts winning. He doesn't shoot just to freaking shoot....he makes the right play. These 2 are very different players

I can understand not liking the archetype but this is too much a judgement using Jamal Crawford as evidence when Rob is not even the same type of player. Rob has PG skill IMO. He's first and foremost is a shot creator but what separates him from the Bones, LouWill & JCraw comparison is he was willing to get others involved and didn't shot hunt to the extent he did in his other stops. He also excelled off the ball and was deadly in C&S situations.

He's not Trae Young in terms of setting up others but Trae also is arguably the best in the league at this. I think the Garland comparisons make alot of sense and Garland on-the-ball is an all-star quality guard. I also view Dilly with slightly more 'juice' than Garland coming out.

Size absolutely matters but it's still a league dominated by skill and Dilly is the most skilled freshman we've seen in a few seasons. In a draft filled with flawed prospects, he's the best shot creator available.

He isn't even the most skilled freshman on his own team. What are you talking about. I like Dillingham as well and think he has a great feel for the game but most skilled freshman we have seen in a few seasons., huh, what. Jamal crawford could pass as well, you aren't remembering correctly.

[SelfishPlayer]

Jamal Crawford didn't rebound, defend, get steals, or make anyone better. He was a pure isolation scorer that needed advanced dribble moves because he couldn't rely on superior athleticism or size to generate consistent easy looks. He only shot 41% from the field for his career. He was an average at best career three point shooter.

[RollingWave]

Jamal Crawford had a huge wingspan and was taller than Rob, the style was also pretty different, Lou Williams / Brandon Jennings / Kemba Walker is a closer approximation of Dillingham in general style

[Telfaire]

was just looking at Sheppard's stats and it's telling that people wanted him to start over Wagner yet in Sheppard's 5 starts, Kentucky was 1-4 and in those starts his 3 pt % dropped down to 43% which is still great but not otherworldly like the rest of his games. So much of Reed's production is due to being wide open or having big games against even smaller PGs than him. I continue to struggle to see how he can stay on the floor with his defense and lack of on-ball creation.

He also played nearly 38 minutes per game when he started (Including 45 minutes against Florida), he could have very well been gassed and let it affect his shooting, that's a heavy minute load by NBA standards, let alone college.
Also, to state the obvious, it's a small sample size, he went 12 out of 28, two more 3s and he's exactly at 50%, can't draw many conclusions from a sample size this small.

Also woth noting that he averaged 18.4 points, 50.7%, 2,4 threes, 6.4 rebounds, 5 assists, 3.4 turnovers, 2 steals, 1.4 blocks in thoese five games as a starter.

[Dat2U]

Man the dilly archetype is not my preference. The maxey garland waterbug 160 lb thin build just aesthetically and the play style that comes with that.....oftentimes inefficiency

Maxey works because he has a different level of straight line speed. Dilly doesn't have that. Garland to me....looked like trash in the playoffs

What have we done going to Jamal Crawford at point guards ?? The Jason kidd era they didn't score enough....Lillard types are a nice balance and built like a point. .but now we are putting undersized wings at point

Imo there is a reason Jamal Crawford played for 10 teams.....I don't see dilly impact winning. I guarantee he is not a pop type of player

Reed impacts winning. He doesn't shoot just to freaking shoot....he makes the right play. These 2 are very different players

I can understand not liking the archetype but this is too much a judgement using Jamal Crawford as evidence when Rob is not even the same type of player. Rob has PG skill IMO. He's first and foremost is a shot creator but what separates him from the Bones, LouWill & JCraw comparison is he was willing to get others involved and didn't shot hunt to the extent he did in his other stops. He also excelled off the ball and was deadly in C&S situations.

He's not Trae Young in terms of setting up others but Trae also is arguably the best in the league at this. I think the Garland comparisons make alot of sense and Garland on-the-ball is an all-star quality guard. I also view Dilly with slightly more 'juice' than Garland coming out.

Size absolutely matters but it's still a league dominated by skill and Dilly is the most skilled freshman we've seen in a few seasons. In a draft filled with flawed prospects, he's the best shot creator available.

He isn't even the most skilled freshman on his own team. What are you talking about. I like Dillingham as well and think he has a great feel for the game but most skilled freshman we have seen in a few seasons., huh, what. Jamal crawford could pass as well, you aren't remembering correctly.

Who is more skilled on his team? And not every skinny kid with a crazy handle is the next Jamal Crawford ... its a lazy comp. Do better!

[EMG518]

I can understand not liking the archetype but this is too much a judgement using Jamal Crawford as evidence when Rob is not even the same type of player. Rob has PG skill IMO. He's first and foremost is a shot creator but what separates him from the Bones, LouWill & JCraw comparison is he was willing to get others involved and didn't shot hunt to the extent he did in his other stops. He also excelled off the ball and was deadly in C&S situations.

He's not Trae Young in terms of setting up others but Trae also is arguably the best in the league at this. I think the Garland comparisons make alot of sense and Garland on-the-ball is an all-star quality guard. I also view Dilly with slightly more 'juice' than Garland coming out.

Size absolutely matters but it's still a league dominated by skill and Dilly is the most skilled freshman we've seen in a few seasons. In a draft filled with flawed prospects, he's the best shot creator available.

He isn't even the most skilled freshman on his own team. What are you talking about. I like Dillingham as well and think he has a great feel for the game but most skilled freshman we have seen in a few seasons., huh, what. Jamal crawford could pass as well, you aren't remembering correctly.

Who is more skilled on his team? And not every skinny kid with a crazy handle is the next Jamal Crawford ... its a lazy comp. Do better!

I didn't comp him to Crawford, I was just stating Crawford could pass as well. Someone else brought him up bit If you ultimately think Dillingham is going to be a 6th man that is going to be a below avg defender, the role is similar so I would 100% get why people are throwing out those 6th man type of players who are undersized physically.

Umm, how about the freshman on his team with a TS% of 69.9%, the guy shot it better from everywhere. Historically good shooting season and he managed with a low usage rate to avg 4.5 assists and have a better ast-to ratio. That guy maybe?

[BigGargamel]

Speaking of physically undersized backups, Dillingham could be a supercharged Bones Hyland without the ego thinking he's the best player in the league.