Official Trade Thread Part XLVI

[gambitx777]

A lot of trades involving us using the 26th pick to move up with Kuz..... I don't think that's necessary in this draft. While I think some players are good the league doesn't think there are any top guys here. Don't over pay. Liz can probably get you a top 15 pick alone from the right team from this draft. Keep an eye on atlanta, bulls, pistons, kings and Miami .

Sent from my SM-G991U1 using RealGM mobile app

[payitforward]

He's as good a shooter as Kuz

This is an absolutely ridiculous statement that reveals a total absence of experience watching Giddey....

Or, to put it another way, you think I was guilty of an overstatement?

...Giddey is a terrible shooter...

No doubt. OTOH, I didn't make much of a claim for Giddey as a shooter, did I?
I didn't praise his shooting. I compared it to Kyle Kuzma's shooting.

Kuz has played 7 NBA seasons. He's averaged over 2100 minutes a year -- & that includes 1 shortened season. As a rookie, on a bit lower than his career usage level, Kuz posted a .549 TS% -- below average for a 4.

That was his best year ever scoring the ball. In the six seasons since then, Kuz has never reached that level again.

Last year, his TS% was .547.
Last year, the average TS% of an NBA 4 was .586.

Now, Kuz's usage is higher than Giddey's! So, yeah, it's probably fair to say that I overstated my case.
Yet, nate, in his 4th year -- on a team with Lebron & AD, when his usage was (understandably) at a career low -- Kuz posted a TS% of .546.

Giddey's TS% last season, his 3d year? .546.
& he took @ 10% more shots per 40 minutes than Kuz did his 4th year.

It’s just not possible to claim that Kyle Kuzma is a good shooter. Or a good scorer. Even though he’s a good guy & a good teammate.

It’s also not possible to claim that Josh Giddey is a good shooter. Or a good scorer. OTOH, unlike Kuz, he’s waaaay above average at a bunch of other things!

Giddey's rebounding is also inflated because he plays the power forward position by default since OKC plays small. It also matters that their center is about 195 pounds and can't rebound very well, allowing more rebounds to fall to Giddey….

This is reaching, nate. Give a guy credit for what he does well.
For starters, rookie Center Chet Holmgren was not a particularly weak rebounder – he was only about ¾ of a rebound short of average for C per 40 minutes.

Giddey does play @20% of his minutes at the 3, which helps his rebounding. But, that’s as far as it goes.

All this...

Giddey is an exceptional passer, but that's really all he is good at. He is a terrible shooter and a bad defender. He doesn't get to the free throw line and he can't break his man down off the dribble His passing skills are nice in a "connector" role, but that's just not enough to be worth enduring his negative impact on spacing and defense. Basically, he needs the ball in his hands to be effective, but he is not effective enough with the ball in his hands to be better than other options. There's a reason he is being played off the floor in the playoffs.

Kuzma is unquestionably a better and more useful player than Giddey. Any trade for Giddey is a bet that he'll get better in the future. He is still very young. But ultimately, I don't think his upside is very high. If he can improve his 3-point shot enough that defenses need to guard him, it may open a pathway for him to be a secondary-attack threat against an off-balance defense, but that's still not that great of an outcome. He would be a below-average defender and an average at best offensive player.

...doesn’t seem relevant to the simple point I made.

OTOH, I suppose, you've done no more than react to my overstatement with a series of overstatements of your own! No doubt we can both do better.

[SUPERBALLMAN]

He's as good a shooter as Kuz

This is an absolutely ridiculous statement that reveals a total absence of experience watching Giddey....

Or, to put it another way, you think I was guilty of an overstatement?

...Giddey is a terrible shooter...

No doubt. OTOH, I didn't make much of a claim for Giddey as a shooter, did I?
I didn't praise his shooting. I compared it to Kyle Kuzma's shooting.

Kuz has played 7 NBA seasons. He's averaged over 2100 minutes a year -- & that includes 1 shortened season. As a rookie, on a bit lower than his career usage level, Kuz posted a .549 TS% -- below average for a 4.

That was his best year ever scoring the ball. In the six seasons since then, Kuz has never reached that level again.

Last year, his TS% was .547.
Last year, the average TS% of an NBA 4 was .586.

Now, Kuz's usage is higher than Giddey's! So, yeah, it's probably fair to say that I overstated my case.
Yet, nate, in his 4th year -- on a team with Lebron & AD, when his usage was (understandably) at a career low -- Kuz posted a TS% of .546.

Giddey's TS% last season, his 3d year? .546.
& he took @ 10% more shots per 40 minutes than Kuz did his 4th year.

It’s just not possible to claim that Kyle Kuzma is a good shooter. Or a good scorer. Even though he’s a good guy & a good teammate.

It’s also not possible to claim that Josh Giddey is a good shooter. Or a good scorer. OTOH, unlike Kuz, he’s waaaay above average at a bunch of other things!

Giddey's rebounding is also inflated because he plays the power forward position by default since OKC plays small. It also matters that their center is about 195 pounds and can't rebound very well, allowing more rebounds to fall to Giddey….

This is reaching, nate. Give a guy credit for what he does well.
For starters, rookie Center Chet Holmgren was not a particularly weak rebounder – he was only about ¾ of a rebound short of average for C per 40 minutes.

Giddey does play @20% of his minutes at the 3, which helps his rebounding. But, that’s as far as it goes.

All this...

Giddey is an exceptional passer, but that's really all he is good at. He is a terrible shooter and a bad defender. He doesn't get to the free throw line and he can't break his man down off the dribble His passing skills are nice in a "connector" role, but that's just not enough to be worth enduring his negative impact on spacing and defense. Basically, he needs the ball in his hands to be effective, but he is not effective enough with the ball in his hands to be better than other options. There's a reason he is being played off the floor in the playoffs.

Kuzma is unquestionably a better and more useful player than Giddey. Any trade for Giddey is a bet that he'll get better in the future. He is still very young. But ultimately, I don't think his upside is very high. If he can improve his 3-point shot enough that defenses need to guard him, it may open a pathway for him to be a secondary-attack threat against an off-balance defense, but that's still not that great of an outcome. He would be a below-average defender and an average at best offensive player.

...doesn’t seem relevant to the simple point I made.

OTOH, I suppose, you've done no more than react to my overstatement with a series of overstatements of your own! No doubt we can both do better.

Giddy bounces around the court like a pinball in a pinball machine. He reminds me of a combination of Larry from the 3 Stooges and Larry from 3's Company.

[nate33]

My latest:

Wiz trades: Kuzma+Davis+26 for 11+15+Gabe Vincent+Lonzo (expiring)+Vanderbilt (expiring)
Chicago trades: Lonzo (expiring)+11 for Kuzma+17
Miami trades: Robinson+15 for Davis
Lakers trade: Vincent+Vanderbilt+17 for Robinson+26

Why for the Wizards?
1). They move up from 26 to 15 in essence while also getting 11 to take more bites at the apple for getting young talent. They are the NBA's feeder team for unwanted contracts (in this case, Gabe Vincent's bad deal).

Why for the Bulls?
1). Well, they don't seem to want to rebuild. Kuzma gets them a productive player at the cost of the unreliable Lonzo, while moving down 6 slots in the draft.

Why for the Heat?
1). Simple. They duck the tax big time. The cost of shedding salary to duck the tax is a mid first rounder (See the Kemba Walker trade from years ago from Boston).
2). Maybe Davis shows sometime other than being the big time bust that he's been in Washington.

Why for the Lakers?
1). They rid themselves of Vincent while getting a sharpshooter in Duncan Robinson. Moving down from 17 to 26 in this draft isn't that big of a difference.

I like using the cap room for picks, but the way you included Kuzma undervalues him IMO. I also don't see the Lakers giving up value to turn Vincent and Vanderbilt into Robinson.

If the Lakers are willing to trade down in order to save money, why not just cut everyone out and turn the #26 into the #17 just by absorbing one of Vincent or Vanderbilt? We have the TPE to do it.

We can than look to trade Kuzma for a pick in some other transaction, but I think it is unrelated to the acquisition of the #17. I think we could trade Kuzma straight up to Chicago for Ball and #11, though I would still prefer to shop Kuzma for a 2025 pick.

[payitforward]

...If the Lakers are willing to trade down in order to save money, why not just cut everyone out and turn the #26 into the #17 just by absorbing one of Vincent or Vanderbilt? We have the TPE to do it....

That's a terrific idea!

...I think we could trade Kuzma straight up to Chicago for Ball and #11, though I would still prefer to shop Kuzma for a 2025 pick.

Agreed....

[Silvie Lysandra]

Wizards trade:

Kyle Kuzma, #26, Johnny Davis, Corey Kispert, #2, #52

Wizards get:

#4, #8, #15, Duncan Robinson

(Note: My targets for these picks would be Holland at 4 and Sheppard at 8, then hoping Castle falls to 15 or maybe swinging a small trade up)

Spurs trade:

#4, #8

Spurs get

#2, #11, Johnny Davis, Patrick Baldwin Jr.

Bulls trade:

Lonzo Ball, #11

Bulls get:

Kyle Kuzma, #52

Heat trade:

Duncan Robinson, #15

Heat get:

Corey Kispert, #26, Lonzo Ball

Why for the Wizards/Spurs?

The Wizards need more talent all around, especially given the relative shallowness of the draft class. But wait, San Antonio is also rebuilding! Why would they take this? Simple - they need to maximize the chance that they come out of this draft with a star, because this is very likely the last time they'll be in the lottery, barring an injury to Wemby (in contrast, the Wizards likely have one more tank year, unless Deni and Bilal show signs of stardom, and in that case the problem solves itself). They also don't lose too much value dropping from 8 to 15, and get to kick the tires on Davis and Baldwin.

Why for the Bulls?

The Bulls want to contend for a low playoff seed, might as well enable them by sending them Kuzma, who has the contract, skillset and talent (starting caliber wing on a great salary) if not the efficiency.

Why for the Heat?
The Heat probably don't want to trade out of the 1st entirely, but they do want to save money. Not only does this deal accomplish that, but they get a younger version of Robinson who's a bit better at the non-shooting aspects of the game to boot.

[NatP4]

Saw the discussion on the trade board about a Kuz/Giddey swap.

Is this getting us to 30 wins - Giddey/Poole/Kispert/Deni/Clingan, plus Bilal on the bench? Could tank the end of the season to get us below 30 and in high lottery range.

If I didn’t really want Topic in the draft, I would do this trade in a heartbeat.

Giddey is only available because of the off court stuff and the poor fit next to SGA/Jalen Williams. If the ball was in his hands, he’s a really good starting point guard, just a 3pt shot away from being an elite/all star caliber player. Still only 21 years old. Plenty of shooting upside, currently an 80% FT shooter.

He would probably go top 5 in the current draft.

[payitforward]

I'd still do it in a heartbeat!

[NatP4]

I'd still do it in a heartbeat!

I wouldn’t hate this:

Kuzma for Giddey

2 for 7+14 from Portland

7: Donovan Clingan
14: Pacome Dadiet
26: Daron Holmes

[Silvie Lysandra]

I'd still do it in a heartbeat!

I wouldn’t hate this:

Kuzma for Giddey

2 for 7+14 from Portland

7: Donovan Clingan
14: Pacome Dadiet
26: Daron Holmes

Fit or no fit, I don't think they do Kuzma for Giddey - they'd rather hold onto him until the last possible moment hoping he can be the centerpiece in a superstar trade (Davis, Embiid, Giannis) however unlikely. With Wemby being already an elite player, the window they have is smaller than they thought. Also I am so not a fan of Clingan; I feel like his upside is Gobert - and Gobert even with quality defenders around him still has some of the same issues he's always had.

[badinage]

Giddey would be a great get for us. He’s only 21!

That’s a fantastic addition to Deni and Bilal and Vukcevic and our 2 or 3 or 4 picks in the draft.

We have to discount this season, at least somewhat; the “scandal” was a distraction, and he never meshed with the new squad. But he can most definitely play. And there’s a lot of room to grow.

[dckingsfan]

I'd still do it in a heartbeat!

I wouldn’t hate this:

Kuzma for Giddey

2 for 7+14 from Portland

7: Donovan Clingan
14: Pacome Dadiet
26: Daron Holmes

Fit or no fit, I don't think they do Kuzma for Giddey - they'd rather hold onto him until the last possible moment hoping he can be the centerpiece in a superstar trade (Davis, Embiid, Giannis) however unlikely. With Wemby being already an elite player, the window they have is smaller than they thought. Also I am so not a fan of Clingan; I feel like his upside is Gobert - and Gobert even with quality defenders around him still has some of the same issues he's always had.

I really like the trade(s). Basically Kuz for Giddey and 2 for 7 & 14 (and 26) (and having trust in this FO).

Could it happen, don't know. But I would be very happy if the FO went this direction.

[Silvie Lysandra]

I'd be targeting different players with 7 and 14 (Castle and Missi would be my preferences, or I'd even trade down to the late teens/early 20s for Edey), but coming away with that and then adding Giddey would be a home run offseason.

[Jimmy Recard]

I'd still do it in a heartbeat!

I wouldn’t hate this:

Kuzma for Giddey

2 for 7+14 from Portland

7: Donovan Clingan
14: Pacome Dadiet
26: Daron Holmes

It’s Deni they want for Giddey not Kuz. I get it, Deni would actually be perfect for them. Replicates a lot of the passing/playmaking, and is the better shooter and defender. I have no interest in trading Deni, but hypothetically, how many picks would we ask for if it were Deni for Giddey straight up?

[NatP4]

#12, Giddey, and Dieng, but yeah, not interested in moving Deni.

[NatP4]

Giddey would be a great get for us. He’s only 21!

That’s a fantastic addition to Deni and Bilal and Vukcevic and our 2 or 3 or 4 picks in the draft.

We have to discount this season, at least somewhat; the “scandal” was a distraction, and he never meshed with the new squad. But he can most definitely play. And there’s a lot of room to grow.

Agreed. Still managed 17.7 points 9.2 rebounds 6.9 assists 0.9 steals 0.8 blocks per 36 on 54.7% TS as a 21 year old.

He’s a reliable 3pt shot away from being elite. No reason why a 21 year old 80% FT shooter won’t continue to develop as a 3pt shooter.

[NatP4]

I'd be targeting different players with 7 and 14 (Castle and Missi would be my preferences, or I'd even trade down to the late teens/early 20s for Edey), but coming away with that and then adding Giddey would be a home run offseason.

Personally, not interested in pairing Castle and Giddey together in a backcourt. Not enough spacing. Sheppard and Giddey is interesting, but probably a pretty significant defensive liability.

Might just roll the dice on Buzelis in that spot. He can rebound and rim protect like a true PF/small ball C. Love the idea of a Bilal/Deni/Buzelis switch everything defense. Major upside play.

Still like Holmes and Dadiet at 14&26.

[nate33]

Wizards trade:

Kyle Kuzma, #26, Johnny Davis, Corey Kispert, #2, #52

Wizards get:

#4, #8, #15, Duncan Robinson

(Note: My targets for these picks would be Holland at 4 and Sheppard at 8, then hoping Castle falls to 15 or maybe swinging a small trade up)

Spurs trade:

#4, #8

Spurs get

#2, #11, Johnny Davis, Patrick Baldwin Jr.

Bulls trade:

Lonzo Ball, #11

Bulls get:

Kyle Kuzma, #52

Heat trade:

Duncan Robinson, #15

Heat get:

Corey Kispert, #26, Lonzo Ball

Why for the Wizards/Spurs?

The Wizards need more talent all around, especially given the relative shallowness of the draft class. But wait, San Antonio is also rebuilding! Why would they take this? Simple - they need to maximize the chance that they come out of this draft with a star, because this is very likely the last time they'll be in the lottery, barring an injury to Wemby (in contrast, the Wizards likely have one more tank year, unless Deni and Bilal show signs of stardom, and in that case the problem solves itself). They also don't lose too much value dropping from 8 to 15, and get to kick the tires on Davis and Baldwin.

Why for the Bulls?

The Bulls want to contend for a low playoff seed, might as well enable them by sending them Kuzma, who has the contract, skillset and talent (starting caliber wing on a great salary) if not the efficiency.

Why for the Heat?
The Heat probably don't want to trade out of the 1st entirely, but they do want to save money. Not only does this deal accomplish that, but they get a younger version of Robinson who's a bit better at the non-shooting aspects of the game to boot.

I’d cut out Miami.

I’d rather have Kispert and the #26 than Robinson and #15. Why do people keep trying to give away Kispert?

The rest of the deal is pretty good: #2, Kuzma, PBJ, and Davis for #4, #8, and Ball

I think San Antonio needs to give a little more to trade 4 and 8 for 2 and 11 though.

[tontoz]

There is a reason Giddeys minutes got cut in the playoffs. He can't make wide open shots and he doesn't pressure the rim.

[AFM]

I wouldn't trade Deni for the first pick in this draft. Wouldn't even have to think about it either. They'd have to send another first for me to consider it.
And I'm not that interested in Giddey either. He's more or less as good as Kuzma but...younger?