2024 NBA Draft - DA BULLS Edition Pick #11

[Jcool0]

Lol, sure thing.

"John Paxson was promoted to vice president of basketball operations in 2009 and Gar Forman was named general manager.

Paxson wanted a better work-life balance and apparently did not enjoy parts of the general manager job, especially working with the media and agents. In 2010 he infamously got into an altercation with Vinny Del Negro, grabbing his coach by the tie in an argument over a minutes limit for Joakim Noah. Paxson also grew more combative with the media as the years went on and the criticism grew."

https://www.chicagotribune.com/2020/04/18/john-paxson-has-a-long-and-complicated-history-with-the-chicago-bulls-a-look-back-at-his-35-seasons-with-the-franchise/

This is not responsive to my point, but thanks for sharing.

It is widely known that Paxson wanted a more behind-the-scenes role. What isn't known is exactly who had the biggest voice on draft pick selection, which was the point I made. I don't care why he changed his role, because it doesn't matter for purposes of this discussion. And even if Paxson remained the primary draft guy, his overall track record is still very sold. It was all the other aspects of the Paxson experience (trades, FA signings) that were frustrating. The draft is the one thing he performed really well in, which is what makes this particular critique so bizarre.

Paxson worked for the Bulls for 17 years. In that time they made zero finals and only drafted two difference makers despite multiple top 10 picks. Rose and Butler. Both could be attributed to luck. With Rose it was 2% chance at the number 1 pick and getting it and Butler was hitting on a late first which in the NBA can be rare. So i cant say it was skill that got those two. Was he a train wreak as a drafter. No. I gave him a C+ grade. With his top 10 picks he rarely drafted busts, but he also passed on better players in most of those drafts. Unless you have at lest one NBA title you shouldn't have your job for 10+ years. Maybe you feel different. Either way it seems some have a little revisionist history going on with him i guess time heals all wounds.

[jnrjr79]

"John Paxson was promoted to vice president of basketball operations in 2009 and Gar Forman was named general manager.

Paxson wanted a better work-life balance and apparently did not enjoy parts of the general manager job, especially working with the media and agents. In 2010 he infamously got into an altercation with Vinny Del Negro, grabbing his coach by the tie in an argument over a minutes limit for Joakim Noah. Paxson also grew more combative with the media as the years went on and the criticism grew."

https://www.chicagotribune.com/2020/04/18/john-paxson-has-a-long-and-complicated-history-with-the-chicago-bulls-a-look-back-at-his-35-seasons-with-the-franchise/

This is not responsive to my point, but thanks for sharing.

It is widely known that Paxson wanted a more behind-the-scenes role. What isn't known is exactly who had the biggest voice on draft pick selection, which was the point I made. I don't care why he changed his role, because it doesn't matter for purposes of this discussion. And even if Paxson remained the primary draft guy, his overall track record is still very sold. It was all the other aspects of the Paxson experience (trades, FA signings) that were frustrating. The draft is the one thing he performed really well in, which is what makes this particular critique so bizarre.

Paxson worked for the Bulls for 17 years. In that time they made zero finals and only drafted two difference makers despite multiple top 10 picks. Rose and Butler. Both could be attributed to luck. With Rose it was 2% chance at the number 1 pick and getting it and Butler was hitting on a late first which in the NBA can be rare. So i cant say it was skill that got those two. Was he a train wreak as a drafter. No. I gave him a C+ grade. With his top 10 picks he rarely drafted busts, but he also passed on better players in most of those drafts. Unless you have at lest one NBA title you shouldn't have your job for 10+ years. Maybe you feel different. Either way it seems some have a little revisionist history going on with him i guess time heals all wounds.

Well, you're mixing up two things here where I'm only addressing one. I disagree with your assessment on whether Paxson had a good drafting history. But I agree on the rest of it - he was given a long leash without enough to show for it. I specifically noted the areas that were sub-par: trades and FA signings. IMO, it's those things, along with luxury tax constraints imposed by Reinsdorf, that were the impediments to winning more. The drafting just wasn't the problem; it was the strength.

[Jcool0]

This is not responsive to my point, but thanks for sharing.

It is widely known that Paxson wanted a more behind-the-scenes role. What isn't known is exactly who had the biggest voice on draft pick selection, which was the point I made. I don't care why he changed his role, because it doesn't matter for purposes of this discussion. And even if Paxson remained the primary draft guy, his overall track record is still very sold. It was all the other aspects of the Paxson experience (trades, FA signings) that were frustrating. The draft is the one thing he performed really well in, which is what makes this particular critique so bizarre.

Paxson worked for the Bulls for 17 years. In that time they made zero finals and only drafted two difference makers despite multiple top 10 picks. Rose and Butler. Both could be attributed to luck. With Rose it was 2% chance at the number 1 pick and getting it and Butler was hitting on a late first which in the NBA can be rare. So i cant say it was skill that got those two. Was he a train wreak as a drafter. No. I gave him a C+ grade. With his top 10 picks he rarely drafted busts, but he also passed on better players in most of those drafts. Unless you have at lest one NBA title you shouldn't have your job for 10+ years. Maybe you feel different. Either way it seems some have a little revisionist history going on with him i guess time heals all wounds.

Well, you're mixing up two things here where I'm only addressing one. I disagree with your assessment on whether Paxson had a good drafting history. But I agree on the rest of it - he was given a long leash without enough to show for it. I specifically noted the areas that were sub-par: trades and FA signings. IMO, it's those things, along with luxury tax constraints imposed by Reinsdorf, that were the impediments to winning more. The drafting just wasn't the problem; it was the strength.

But it wasn't a strength and its easy to go back and see it. Just because you aren't drafting busts doesn't mean you are taking the correct players. Like i've said with the WCJ draft sure he wasn't a bust but it wasn't the correct pick either. 5 better players went right after including MVP runner up SGA.

[prolific passer]

Paxson's peak drafting imo was 03-08. After that the drafts were ok but not as special as those previous ones. The mistake he made was trading out Aldridge for Tyrus.

[Am2626]

Reason why he chose players from winning situations is to change the culture of what the team was at that point.

Well yeah but after a certain point talent needs to win out.

What "more talented players" did he miss out on?

His first pick was Hinrich (2003). It's unfortunate that the Bulls didn't have a higher pick that year, but Hinrich was better than everyone else picked after him (I guess you could argue that David West was better, but I wouldn't).

2004 he picked Ben Gordon and traded for the #7 pick (Luol Deng). I don't think he missed out on anyone after Deng. Maybe Igoudala, but was he that much better than Deng? I'm not sure if he was, but he was on better teams.

2005 no pick

2006: This is where he screwed up by trading Aldridge for Thomas. He also picked Thabo Sefolosha who was an okay role player.

2007: Joakim Noah. Who was better in that draft after pick #9?

2008: Rose

2009: James Johnson (okay player who didn't work out here) and Taj Gibon (good pick for #27). Yes, Jrue Holiday went one pick after Johnson, but that happens. Outside of Holiday the rest of that draft after #16 wasn't a big loss (keep in mind that they had Rose and weren't going to pick a point guard).

2010: The Bulls used #17 (Kevin Seraphin) to make cap room to try and get LeBron. They eventually used it on Boozer.

2011: Jimmy Butler at 30 and traded for Mirotic.

When did Gar start to take over? After 2011 the team didn't draft well for a few years, but it was always late picks. Teague at 29, Snell at 20 and then trading up for McDermott. Then Portis was good 22 and Denzel wasn't good at #14 (not the best draft, but Siakim went late and so did Dejounte Murray. That means most teams passed on those two).

This site does a better job of details about the Bulls picks:
https://www.nba.com/bulls/news/look-back-past-15-years-bulls-draft-night

There was an opportunity to trade #7 and Donyell Marshall to move up to #4 where he would have had a choice of either Bosh or Wade but he overvalued Marshall. I also remember him just giving away J.R. Smith for nothing. His priorities were always about things like “No Headbands” and running the organization like they were still in the 90’s. He could never adapt to the changes happening in the NBA.

[drosestruts]

interesting new Ben Pfeifer video where he looks at similarities between players like Brunson and Derrick White in college to see if there's stat indicators one could use to identify other players likely to find similar success

Watch on YouTube

The main things he looks at are usage, TS%, and good efficiency around the rim with low % of shots coming off assists (so ability to self-create).

The player in this draft he identifies is someone who has not been on my radar at all - KJ Simpson from Colorado. Junior 6'1" point guard.

Simpson checked similar boxes - 27% usage, 60% TS%, 43% 3P%, 87% FT% (on 5 attempts per game), 2.5:1 assist to turnover ratio, Can create his own looks with a good cross over, good speed, and a nice stepback.

I know guard isn't viewed as a position of need, and 11 might be high for Simpson, but if we could acquire another pick it'd be interesting to see if this thinking carries through.

Found it interesting as Pfeifer is someone I consider to be wayyyy smarter than me when it comes to basketball. Interesting to see his model indicating a good future for Simpson.

[Dan Z]

Well yeah but after a certain point talent needs to win out.

What "more talented players" did he miss out on?

His first pick was Hinrich (2003). It's unfortunate that the Bulls didn't have a higher pick that year, but Hinrich was better than everyone else picked after him (I guess you could argue that David West was better, but I wouldn't).

2004 he picked Ben Gordon and traded for the #7 pick (Luol Deng). I don't think he missed out on anyone after Deng. Maybe Igoudala, but was he that much better than Deng? I'm not sure if he was, but he was on better teams.

2005 no pick

2006: This is where he screwed up by trading Aldridge for Thomas. He also picked Thabo Sefolosha who was an okay role player.

2007: Joakim Noah. Who was better in that draft after pick #9?

2008: Rose

2009: James Johnson (okay player who didn't work out here) and Taj Gibon (good pick for #27). Yes, Jrue Holiday went one pick after Johnson, but that happens. Outside of Holiday the rest of that draft after #16 wasn't a big loss (keep in mind that they had Rose and weren't going to pick a point guard).

2010: The Bulls used #17 (Kevin Seraphin) to make cap room to try and get LeBron. They eventually used it on Boozer.

2011: Jimmy Butler at 30 and traded for Mirotic.

When did Gar start to take over? After 2011 the team didn't draft well for a few years, but it was always late picks. Teague at 29, Snell at 20 and then trading up for McDermott. Then Portis was good 22 and Denzel wasn't good at #14 (not the best draft, but Siakim went late and so did Dejounte Murray. That means most teams passed on those two).

This site does a better job of details about the Bulls picks:
https://www.nba.com/bulls/news/look-back-past-15-years-bulls-draft-night

There was an opportunity to trade #7 and Donyell Marshall to move up to #4 where he would have had a choice of either Bosh or Wade but he overvalued Marshall. I also remember him just giving away J.R. Smith for nothing. His priorities were always about things like “No Headbands” and running the organization like they were still in the 90’s. He could never adapt to the changes happening in the NBA.

If that deal was on the table then he should've taken it, but I'm talking about the draft picks he did have and who he selected.

JR Smith was a bit of a headcase, that's why the Bulls didn't want him. Yes, he was talented but had a low BBIQ. I don't think he was a big loss.

[prolific passer]

For some reason I'm leaning towards Filipowski.

[prolific passer]

What "more talented players" did he miss out on?

His first pick was Hinrich (2003). It's unfortunate that the Bulls didn't have a higher pick that year, but Hinrich was better than everyone else picked after him (I guess you could argue that David West was better, but I wouldn't).

2004 he picked Ben Gordon and traded for the #7 pick (Luol Deng). I don't think he missed out on anyone after Deng. Maybe Igoudala, but was he that much better than Deng? I'm not sure if he was, but he was on better teams.

2005 no pick

2006: This is where he screwed up by trading Aldridge for Thomas. He also picked Thabo Sefolosha who was an okay role player.

2007: Joakim Noah. Who was better in that draft after pick #9?

2008: Rose

2009: James Johnson (okay player who didn't work out here) and Taj Gibon (good pick for #27). Yes, Jrue Holiday went one pick after Johnson, but that happens. Outside of Holiday the rest of that draft after #16 wasn't a big loss (keep in mind that they had Rose and weren't going to pick a point guard).

2010: The Bulls used #17 (Kevin Seraphin) to make cap room to try and get LeBron. They eventually used it on Boozer.

2011: Jimmy Butler at 30 and traded for Mirotic.

When did Gar start to take over? After 2011 the team didn't draft well for a few years, but it was always late picks. Teague at 29, Snell at 20 and then trading up for McDermott. Then Portis was good 22 and Denzel wasn't good at #14 (not the best draft, but Siakim went late and so did Dejounte Murray. That means most teams passed on those two).

This site does a better job of details about the Bulls picks:
https://www.nba.com/bulls/news/look-back-past-15-years-bulls-draft-night

There was an opportunity to trade #7 and Donyell Marshall to move up to #4 where he would have had a choice of either Bosh or Wade but he overvalued Marshall. I also remember him just giving away J.R. Smith for nothing. His priorities were always about things like “No Headbands” and running the organization like they were still in the 90’s. He could never adapt to the changes happening in the NBA.

If that deal was on the table then he should've taken it, but I'm talking about the draft picks he did have and who he selected.

JR Smith was a bit of a headcase, that's why the Bulls didn't want him. Yes, he was talented but had a low BBIQ. I don't think he was a big loss.

I was looking at some of those players from the 04 draft it seemed a good amount of them started to flame out in their mid to late 20s. Gordon is interesting because would he have flamed out like he did if he stayed with the bulls?

[sco]

I keep going back and forth as to whether I think AK should attach to the pick in a package to get an impact player. I guess it depends what he does with Demar (and Caruso because I see them as package to keep the team around .500). If he keeps both guys, there won't likely be any minutes for a not-ready-for-primetime rookie.

[prolific passer]

I keep going back and forth as to whether I think AK should attach to the pick in a package to get an impact player. I guess it depends what he does with Demar (and Caruso because I see them as package to keep the team around .500). If he keeps both guys, there won't likely be any minutes for a not-ready-for-primetime rookie.

They have said they you can get 1 firsts for Caruso. Trade him to Okc for their #12 and a first for next year (lottery bound if possible). Maybe you can get another one or 2 if you add Drummond into the mix. The thing is that you have ak doing the drafting. Sooooooo

[sco]

I keep going back and forth as to whether I think AK should attach to the pick in a package to get an impact player. I guess it depends what he does with Demar (and Caruso because I see them as package to keep the team around .500). If he keeps both guys, there won't likely be any minutes for a not-ready-for-primetime rookie.

They have said they you can get 1 firsts for Caruso. Trade him to Okc for their #12 and a first for next year (lottery bound if possible). Maybe you can get another one or 2 if you add Drummond into the mix. The thing is that you have ak doing the drafting. Sooooooo

I am in doubt the Caruso fetches 2 1sts (your point wasn't clear if you meant 1 or 2 1sts for him). And don't get me wrong, I'm not saying we should keep those 2, but AK seems 100% behind hoping for some marginal improvement to a non-contending playoff team (to keep his job), and in that scenario, I think he's sorta stuck keeping Caruso. Also, Drummond, IIRC, is an unrestricted FA, so doubtful we can use him in a trade.

[Dan Z]

There was an opportunity to trade #7 and Donyell Marshall to move up to #4 where he would have had a choice of either Bosh or Wade but he overvalued Marshall. I also remember him just giving away J.R. Smith for nothing. His priorities were always about things like “No Headbands” and running the organization like they were still in the 90’s. He could never adapt to the changes happening in the NBA.

If that deal was on the table then he should've taken it, but I'm talking about the draft picks he did have and who he selected.

JR Smith was a bit of a headcase, that's why the Bulls didn't want him. Yes, he was talented but had a low BBIQ. I don't think he was a big loss.

I was looking at some of those players from the 04 draft it seemed a good amount of them started to flame out in their mid to late 20s. Gordon is interesting because would he have flamed out like he did if he stayed with the bulls?

I think he would've flamed out eventually because one of his weaknesses was his dribbling.

[prolific passer]

I keep going back and forth as to whether I think AK should attach to the pick in a package to get an impact player. I guess it depends what he does with Demar (and Caruso because I see them as package to keep the team around .500). If he keeps both guys, there won't likely be any minutes for a not-ready-for-primetime rookie.

They have said they you can get 1 firsts for Caruso. Trade him to Okc for their #12 and a first for next year (lottery bound if possible). Maybe you can get another one or 2 if you add Drummond into the mix. The thing is that you have ak doing the drafting. Sooooooo

I am in doubt the Caruso fetches 2 1sts (your point wasn't clear if you meant 1 or 2 1sts for him). And don't get me wrong, I'm not saying we should keep those 2, but AK seems 100% behind hoping for some marginal improvement to a non-contending playoff team (to keep his job), and in that scenario, I think he's sorta stuck keeping Caruso. Also, Drummond, IIRC, is an unrestricted FA, so doubtful we can use him in a trade.

Oops. Forgot to put the 2 in front of the 1st's. Anyway get that #12 pick for this draft and get a first for next year considering how deep that draft is. Thunder might figure they need to improve their bench a bit after their loss and Caruso could be that piece for them. They might give you another first of you include Drummond.

[Jcool0]

Well yeah but after a certain point talent needs to win out.

What "more talented players" did he miss out on?

His first pick was Hinrich (2003). It's unfortunate that the Bulls didn't have a higher pick that year, but Hinrich was better than everyone else picked after him (I guess you could argue that David West was better, but I wouldn't).

2004 he picked Ben Gordon and traded for the #7 pick (Luol Deng). I don't think he missed out on anyone after Deng. Maybe Igoudala, but was he that much better than Deng? I'm not sure if he was, but he was on better teams.

2005 no pick

2006: This is where he screwed up by trading Aldridge for Thomas. He also picked Thabo Sefolosha who was an okay role player.

2007: Joakim Noah. Who was better in that draft after pick #9?

2008: Rose

2009: James Johnson (okay player who didn't work out here) and Taj Gibon (good pick for #27). Yes, Jrue Holiday went one pick after Johnson, but that happens. Outside of Holiday the rest of that draft after #16 wasn't a big loss (keep in mind that they had Rose and weren't going to pick a point guard).

2010: The Bulls used #17 (Kevin Seraphin) to make cap room to try and get LeBron. They eventually used it on Boozer.

2011: Jimmy Butler at 30 and traded for Mirotic.

When did Gar start to take over? After 2011 the team didn't draft well for a few years, but it was always late picks. Teague at 29, Snell at 20 and then trading up for McDermott. Then Portis was good 22 and Denzel wasn't good at #14 (not the best draft, but Siakim went late and so did Dejounte Murray. That means most teams passed on those two).

This site does a better job of details about the Bulls picks:
https://www.nba.com/bulls/news/look-back-past-15-years-bulls-draft-night

There was an opportunity to trade #7 and Donyell Marshall to move up to #4 where he would have had a choice of either Bosh or Wade but he overvalued Marshall. I also remember him just giving away J.R. Smith for nothing. His priorities were always about things like “No Headbands” and running the organization like they were still in the 90’s. He could never adapt to the changes happening in the NBA.

2004: Igoudola was a better player and had a better career wasn't miles better, but was better. At 3 should of been Livingston based on his upside (maybe he doesn't get hurt in Chicago), but even with Paxon risk aversion Devin Harris was the guy to take at 3.

[Dan Z]

What "more talented players" did he miss out on?

His first pick was Hinrich (2003). It's unfortunate that the Bulls didn't have a higher pick that year, but Hinrich was better than everyone else picked after him (I guess you could argue that David West was better, but I wouldn't).

2004 he picked Ben Gordon and traded for the #7 pick (Luol Deng). I don't think he missed out on anyone after Deng. Maybe Igoudala, but was he that much better than Deng? I'm not sure if he was, but he was on better teams.

2005 no pick

2006: This is where he screwed up by trading Aldridge for Thomas. He also picked Thabo Sefolosha who was an okay role player.

2007: Joakim Noah. Who was better in that draft after pick #9?

2008: Rose

2009: James Johnson (okay player who didn't work out here) and Taj Gibon (good pick for #27). Yes, Jrue Holiday went one pick after Johnson, but that happens. Outside of Holiday the rest of that draft after #16 wasn't a big loss (keep in mind that they had Rose and weren't going to pick a point guard).

2010: The Bulls used #17 (Kevin Seraphin) to make cap room to try and get LeBron. They eventually used it on Boozer.

2011: Jimmy Butler at 30 and traded for Mirotic.

When did Gar start to take over? After 2011 the team didn't draft well for a few years, but it was always late picks. Teague at 29, Snell at 20 and then trading up for McDermott. Then Portis was good 22 and Denzel wasn't good at #14 (not the best draft, but Siakim went late and so did Dejounte Murray. That means most teams passed on those two).

This site does a better job of details about the Bulls picks:
https://www.nba.com/bulls/news/look-back-past-15-years-bulls-draft-night

There was an opportunity to trade #7 and Donyell Marshall to move up to #4 where he would have had a choice of either Bosh or Wade but he overvalued Marshall. I also remember him just giving away J.R. Smith for nothing. His priorities were always about things like “No Headbands” and running the organization like they were still in the 90’s. He could never adapt to the changes happening in the NBA.

2004: Igoudola was a better player and had a better career wasn't miles better, but was better. At 3 should of been Livingston based on his upside (maybe he doesn't get hurt in Chicago), but even with Paxon risk aversion Devin Harris was the guy to take at 3.

Igoudola's only better because he was on better teams.

Paxson's first two drafts were Hinrich, Gordon and Deng. That's not bad and in year two (when he picked Gordon) they didn't need a point guard because they had Hinrich. I don't think Livingston, pre-injury, showed a big amount of potential that they regret not picking him. Same with Harris. How much better was Harris's career compared to Gordons?

Paxson had his flaws, but he made a few draft picks/moves that I think were good. Could they be better? Perhaps, but you could say that about every GM.

[Almost Retired]

For some reason I'm leaning towards Filipowski.

The draft is too heavy with guards. At least Filipowski has some useful talents like passing and adequate shooting. He's not going to be a superstar but I think he could be a starting PF next to Vuc. Patrick doesn't want to play PF and he's injured every year anyway or too passive when he does play..

My preference would be to draft Knecht and let DDR move himself onto his contender of choice as a FA. We're going nowhere in the next 5-10 years. Let DDR try to get a ring somewhere else. Good dude. It isn't his fault we're mediocre. We might as well go younger. SO if I'm AKME I would go Knecht and then Filipowski whichever one is still available.

[Jcool0]

There was an opportunity to trade #7 and Donyell Marshall to move up to #4 where he would have had a choice of either Bosh or Wade but he overvalued Marshall. I also remember him just giving away J.R. Smith for nothing. His priorities were always about things like “No Headbands” and running the organization like they were still in the 90’s. He could never adapt to the changes happening in the NBA.

2004: Igoudola was a better player and had a better career wasn't miles better, but was better. At 3 should of been Livingston based on his upside (maybe he doesn't get hurt in Chicago), but even with Paxon risk aversion Devin Harris was the guy to take at 3.

Igoudola's only better because he was on better teams.

Paxson's first two drafts were Hinrich, Gordon and Deng. That's not bad and in year two (when he picked Gordon) they didn't need a point guard because they had Hinrich. I don't think Livingston, pre-injury, showed a big amount of potential that they regret not picking him. Same with Harris. How much better was Harris's career compared to Gordons?

Paxson had his flaws, but he made a few draft picks/moves that I think were good. Could they be better? Perhaps, but you could say that about every GM.

2005-2011: VORP- Deng: 14.7 Iguodala: 23.7 PER- Deng: 16.2 Iguodala: 17.1 Offensive rating- Deng: 108 Iguodala: 110 TS%- Deng: 53% Iguodala: 55% DBPM- Deng: 0.5 Iguodala: 1.1 WS- Deng: 42.9 Iguodala: 53.9

I think Harris on the Bulls plays a similar role to Gordon. Scoring of the bench but has better size so isn't as much of a defense liability.

[League Circles]

Unless you have at lest one NBA title you shouldn't have your job for 10+ years. Maybe you feel different.

Interesting notion. I couldn't disagree more. Not only can you be an excellent exec without a title, but it should actually be expected that an excellent exec won't ever win a title just because of how much luck is involved.

[Jcool0]

Unless you have at lest one NBA title you shouldn't have your job for 10+ years. Maybe you feel different.

Interesting notion. I couldn't disagree more. Not only can you be an excellent exec without a title, but it should actually be expected that an excellent exec won't ever win a title just because of how much luck is involved.

Name one.