Brewers 2025 Discussion - Frelick Activated, Black Sent Down

[BUCKnation]

The following players were acquired by the Brewers this past offseason

Joey Ortiz 135 OPS+
Rhys Hoskins 131 OPS+
Gary Sanchez 127 OPS+
Jake Bauers 127 OPS+
Bryan Hudson 0.81 ERA
Jared Koenig 2.93 ERA

And Ortiz was the only where Arnold gave up a truly significant asset(you could argue giving up decent prospects like Avina or Chambers are somewhat significant assets).

And That doesn't include the following players acquired last year

William Contreras 175 OPS+
Trevor Megill 0.93 ERA
Bryse Wilson 2.65 ERA
Colin Rea 3.45 ERA
Elvis Peguero 3.71 ERA

A pretty great job by Matt Arnold atleast from what we've seen so far

Agreed. What are some misses? Winker? I can’t put guys like Brian Anderson there as it was a minor move.

Winker is probably one although Wong also did nothing so it was trash for trash. Andrew Chafin is the only other than comes to mind

I was going to mention that maybe those moves were mistimed because they’ve both been good this year but I see Winker has fallen off a cliff recently

[Kerb Hohl]

Agreed. What are some misses? Winker? I can’t put guys like Brian Anderson there as it was a minor move.

Winker is probably one although Wong also did nothing so it was trash for trash. Andrew Chafin is the only other than comes to mind

I was going to mention that maybe those moves were mistimed because they’ve both been good this year but I see Winker has fallen off a cliff recently

Even with Winker falling off a cliff - if he finishes with 15 HR and is a .240/.350/.400 guy, I think that is what the team thought - a guy that was once borderline great but injuries have pulled him down to bench/fringe starter OF guy.

People lost their minds last year because they trotted out a guy with a .570 OPS for the whole season, which is totally understandable...but I think the idea the Brewers had was at least the guy the Nats have this year.

[Thunder Muscle]

Not trading Adames would be a huge mistake.

Keeping him I do believe equals a comp pick which I thought was like in between the 1st and 2nd round, so all is not lost by keeping him. I can’t imagine they’d get any massive haul for a half season rental of him at this point. But I do get the train if thought of getting prospects when Turang or Ortiz ready to slide into SS. The locker room dynamic I think is the hold-up, especially being in 1st place.

[jakecronus8]

Trades are part of the business. If your locker room is gonna get too emo to compete because their friend got traded you've got much bigger problems.

[Ron Swanson]

I tend to agree with Rosenthal's conclusion but a little disagreement on how he reached it. Whatever you think of "locker room dynamics", Adames arguably provides way more on the field value than Hader did as an every game, middle-of-the-order bat. His power numbers and OPS are right back to his 2021 levels. At some point, you need to pivot from viewing everyone and everything as a future asset when you have a team that looks like it can actually make a postseason run.

[Iheartfootball]

Trades are part of the business. If your locker room is gonna get too emo to compete because their friend got traded you've got much bigger problems.

These guys aren't robots. Just like in life, if you have a team/family/friend(s)/community surrounding you that you trust and feel safe around, you will be in a regulated emotional mindset to play/work/live better.

It's an intangible that absolutely affects how players play, we just don't have a solid way to capture how much statistically...yet. I think that's the next frontier in sports.

[jakecronus8]

Trades are part of the business. If your locker room is gonna get too emo to compete because their friend got traded you've got much bigger problems.

These guys aren't robots. Just like in life, if you have a team/family/friend(s)/community surrounding you that you trust and feel safe around, you will be in a regulated emotional mindset to play/work/live better.

It's an intangible that absolutely affects how players play, we just don't have a solid way to capture how much statistically...yet. I think that's the next frontier in sports.

IDK why this is a big deal in WI sports seemingly. Rodgers crys about the way the Packers move on from vets. The Holidays cry about getting traded. The brewers get booboo face when Hader is traded. Its literally all pro sports teams that go through the same stuff. Are we just getting soft?

[Kerb Hohl]

Trades are part of the business. If your locker room is gonna get too emo to compete because their friend got traded you've got much bigger problems.

These guys aren't robots. Just like in life, if you have a team/family/friend(s)/community surrounding you that you trust and feel safe around, you will be in a regulated emotional mindset to play/work/live better.

It's an intangible that absolutely affects how players play, we just don't have a solid way to capture how much statistically...yet. I think that's the next frontier in sports.

Most of the key guys had better stats after Hader was dealt. They had a bunch of weird losses where Woodruff got tagged in the 6th inning after a great start, etc...and Rodgers/Bush weren't awful in comparison to Hader, but both relievers that they had where they thought they could patch behind Hader underwhelmed.

The Padres are worse off, the Brewers are better off. Everyone left on the Brewers after that trade has probably been much happier since.

I totally get that the players shouldn't be treated entirely as robots, but it's also just a business.

[Kerb Hohl]

I tend to agree with Rosenthal's conclusion but a little disagreement on how he reached it. Whatever you think of "locker room dynamics", Adames arguably provides way more on the field value than Hader did as an every game, middle-of-the-order bat. His power numbers and OPS are right back to his 2021 levels. At some point, you need to pivot from viewing everyone and everything as a future asset when you have a team that looks like it can actually make a postseason run.

I do kind of agree with this. Hader was a unique case where he was at a non-premium position and still had another huge salary left the following year.

[Iheartfootball]

Trades are part of the business. If your locker room is gonna get too emo to compete because their friend got traded you've got much bigger problems.

These guys aren't robots. Just like in life, if you have a team/family/friend(s)/community surrounding you that you trust and feel safe around, you will be in a regulated emotional mindset to play/work/live better.

It's an intangible that absolutely affects how players play, we just don't have a solid way to capture how much statistically...yet. I think that's the next frontier in sports.

IDK why this is a big deal in WI sports seemingly. Rodgers crys about the way the Packers move on from vets. The Holidays cry about getting traded. The brewers get booboo face when Hader is traded. Its literally all pro sports teams that go through the same stuff. Are we just getting soft?

I'm not sure what your point is. People have emotions and they should learn to regulate them better?

My point is when you remove someone from the locker room who is a trusted leader, affable, someone players seem to rally around, their loss to the team isn't caught in their stats or wins and losses but it's a real phenomenon; an important piece of information that we can quantify.

[Iheartfootball]

Trades are part of the business. If your locker room is gonna get too emo to compete because their friend got traded you've got much bigger problems.

These guys aren't robots. Just like in life, if you have a team/family/friend(s)/community surrounding you that you trust and feel safe around, you will be in a regulated emotional mindset to play/work/live better.

It's an intangible that absolutely affects how players play, we just don't have a solid way to capture how much statistically...yet. I think that's the next frontier in sports.

Most of the key guys had better stats after Hader was dealt. They had a bunch of weird losses where Woodruff got tagged in the 6th inning after a great start, etc...and Rodgers/Bush weren't awful in comparison to Hader, but both relievers that they had where they thought they could patch behind Hader underwhelmed.

The Padres are worse off, the Brewers are better off. Everyone left on the Brewers after that trade has probably been much happier since.

I totally get that the players shouldn't be treated entirely as robots, but it's also just a business.

Sure, I'm not saying it's a direct correlation and I'm not making it a binary choice. Just that it's part of the recipe.

[Kerb Hohl]

These guys aren't robots. Just like in life, if you have a team/family/friend(s)/community surrounding you that you trust and feel safe around, you will be in a regulated emotional mindset to play/work/live better.

It's an intangible that absolutely affects how players play, we just don't have a solid way to capture how much statistically...yet. I think that's the next frontier in sports.

Most of the key guys had better stats after Hader was dealt. They had a bunch of weird losses where Woodruff got tagged in the 6th inning after a great start, etc...and Rodgers/Bush weren't awful in comparison to Hader, but both relievers that they had where they thought they could patch behind Hader underwhelmed.

The Padres are worse off, the Brewers are better off. Everyone left on the Brewers after that trade has probably been much happier since.

I totally get that the players shouldn't be treated entirely as robots, but it's also just a business.

Sure, I'm not saying it's a direct correlation and I'm not making it a binary choice. Just that it's part of the recipe.

I think we cheer for mostly good organizations in the Packers, Brewers, etc...that are well-run. Absolutely part of being a GM or coach is balancing the human element with decision-making, but when you make an unorthodox move as good as the one(s) the Brewers did. They don't end up blowing up in the media once the dust settles giving your team gets a bad rap, which trickles down to the players over time. A team like the A's or Marlins doing moves like this get ripped to shreds.

[coolhandluke121]

After tonight, Joey Ortiz will have more WAR than Corbin Burnes. William Contreras has A LOT more WAR than Hader the last two years, and I wouldn't be surprised if even Gasser already has more WAR than Hader. So, the notion that a good team can't also manage assets when they're in first place falls really flat IMO. A ridiculously high percentage of their trades end up paying off significantly sooner than expected, dating all the way back to Lucroy, Gomez, and others who were traded around the end of the Melvin era.

Also, just to get the Rosenthal story straight, the Brewers learned their lesson from seeing the effects of the Hader trade... and the lesson is that they should NOT have done it? Cool story bruh.

[MVP2110]

After tonight, Joey Ortiz will have more WAR than Corbin Burnes. William Contreras has A LOT more WAR than Hader the last two years, and I wouldn't be surprised if even Gasser already has more WAR than Hader. So, the notion that a good team can't also manage assets when they're in first place falls really flat IMO. A ridiculously high percentage of their trades end up paying off significantly sooner than expected, dating all the way back to Lucroy, Gomez, and others who were traded around the end of the Melvin era.

Also, just to get the Rosenthal story straight, the Brewers learned their lesson from seeing the effects of the Hader trade... and the lesson is that they should NOT have done it? Cool story bruh.

Yea this is what I don't get. That trade has turned out to be a complete win for the Brewers. It seems like they've learned the wrong lesson

[WeekapaugGroove]

With Adames, let's see where they are in the standings closer to the deadline. If they are in 1st then I would get holding onto him. If they are just in the wildcard hunt then trading him should be far more of an option regardless if it pisses off his teammates. Basically they need to ask themselves 'would we trade for a rental in our current situation'.

Now if some team was willing to offer a Gasser level starting pitching prospect who was ready now I could see that making sense right now.

Like most trades it really depends what you can get back.

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[coolhandluke121]

With Adames, let's see where they are in the standings closer to the deadline. If they are in 1st then I would get holding onto him. If they are just in the wildcard hunt then trading him should be far more of an option regardless if it pisses off his teammates. Basically they need to ask themselves 'would we trade for a rental in our current situation'.

Now if some team was willing to offer a Gasser level starting pitching prospect who was ready now I could see that making sense right now.

Like most trades it really depends what you can get back.

That last part is obviously the most salient. In any case, I'd say that I trust them either way, but it does really concern me that we're seeing reports that they recognize that trading Hader was a mistake. I mean, wt actual f? And I also just want to point out that being in first place is not what it used to be if you're not one of the top 2 division leaders. That's the real threshold because you can avoid the fluke 3-game series in round 1. Being the #3 division winner, which is probably the realistic best-case scenario, is hardly better than being a wild-card team at this stage.

ETA: Unless winning the division means you can lock up a playoff spot sooner and realign your pitching staff for the playoffs, but there are plenty of scenarios where wild-card teams can lock up a playoff spot before mediocre division winners can.

[Kerb Hohl]

So Hall only threw 11 pitches yesterday in his rehab stint. Sat at 94-95, though.

Sounds like they're going to keep his rehab outings short for a while and then decide whether to stretch him out or not. Seems like the betting odds right now is he comes back as a reliever/middle innings guy. Maybe they try the starting thing out again next year.

[Ron Swanson]

After tonight, Joey Ortiz will have more WAR than Corbin Burnes. William Contreras has A LOT more WAR than Hader the last two years, and I wouldn't be surprised if even Gasser already has more WAR than Hader. So, the notion that a good team can't also manage assets when they're in first place falls really flat IMO. A ridiculously high percentage of their trades end up paying off significantly sooner than expected, dating all the way back to Lucroy, Gomez, and others who were traded around the end of the Melvin era.

Also, just to get the Rosenthal story straight, the Brewers learned their lesson from seeing the effects of the Hader trade... and the lesson is that they should NOT have done it? Cool story bruh.

Yea this is what I don't get. That trade has turned out to be a complete win for the Brewers. It seems like they've learned the wrong lesson

Is that what was implied?

Why Adames is unlikely to be the next Hader

Speaking of the Brewers, the return from their controversial Josh Hader trade at the 2022 deadline keeps looking better and better.

Adames, 28, probably can rest easy. If the Brewers traded him, they could slide Brice Turang to shortstop and use Joey Ortiz and others at second base. But club officials recognize the internal damage they caused with the Hader deal, and the potential to unsettle the clubhouse again by parting with an everyday player and team leader.

I'm not seeing any regret here. More cautioning that lightning probably won't strike twice here cuz Reliever =/= every day 3-4 tool player. I'd actually agree with that. Again, this entirely depends on how the team looks in July. Positional, on-the-field value changes the calculus.

[MVP2110]

After tonight, Joey Ortiz will have more WAR than Corbin Burnes. William Contreras has A LOT more WAR than Hader the last two years, and I wouldn't be surprised if even Gasser already has more WAR than Hader. So, the notion that a good team can't also manage assets when they're in first place falls really flat IMO. A ridiculously high percentage of their trades end up paying off significantly sooner than expected, dating all the way back to Lucroy, Gomez, and others who were traded around the end of the Melvin era.

Also, just to get the Rosenthal story straight, the Brewers learned their lesson from seeing the effects of the Hader trade... and the lesson is that they should NOT have done it? Cool story bruh.

Yea this is what I don't get. That trade has turned out to be a complete win for the Brewers. It seems like they've learned the wrong lesson

Is that what was implied?

Why Adames is unlikely to be the next Hader

Speaking of the Brewers, the return from their controversial Josh Hader trade at the 2022 deadline keeps looking better and better.

Adames, 28, probably can rest easy. If the Brewers traded him, they could slide Brice Turang to shortstop and use Joey Ortiz and others at second base. But club officials recognize the internal damage they caused with the Hader deal, and the potential to unsettle the clubhouse again by parting with an everyday player and team leader.

I'm not seeing any regret here. More cautioning that lightning probably won't strike twice here cuz Reliever =/= every day 3-4 tool player. I'd actually agree with that. Again, this entirely depends on how the team looks in July. Positional, on-the-field value changes the calculus.

It's been mentioned several times since the Hader trade that the Brewers realize that trade was a "mistake".

It's implied in this article with the quote "But club officials recognize the internal damage they caused with the Hader deal, and the potential to unsettle the clubhouse again by parting with an everyday player and team leader"

It was also discussed last year around a potential Burnes trade.

Now to be clear I'm not saying they should trade Adames, it obviously depends on the type of offers they receive, and it's possible that the Front office is leaking this as a way to drive up bidding and/or easing players worries, but in no way was the Hader trade a mistake. They've clearly won that deal and I think it's debatable at best that they'd have made the playoffs in 2022 with Hader on the roster.

[Ron Swanson]

No, I seriously doubt there's a single person in the organization that looks at Contreras having an MVP type year, and Gasser/Ortiz being legit pieces already, and legitimately says "yeah, we still made a mistake trading Josh". Acknowledging the one piece of negative fallout from the trade (we know this because players literally admitted as much) doesn't mean everyone involved in the decision-making process can't universally acknowledge that trade as still being a massive win and the right thing to do in hindsight. Cautioning against this idea of "well it worked out that time, let's just keep doing it" isn't the same thing as learning the wrong lessons. Pretty much everyone here was in favor of trading Burnes this past offseason, so kind of a poor example.