Jordan Love Thread - All Aboard the Love Train

[coolhandluke121]

I think it's just because he seems to be drawing a contrast between top-10 QBs vs. QBs drafted later, but then comes to the conclusion that sitting is better for both groups, which means there's no need to draw a contrast.

Yah, early draft picks are better off sitting to develop, later round picks are better off sitting to develop. Training up your 7th round qb and training up your 1st round qb before unleashing 'em seems like sound practice.

I can buy the possibility that higher picks might need less development on average, but in general I think it's an extremely complicated job with a steep learning curve. That said, I'm sure there are counterexamples both ways - young QBs who started playing well in their first or second year, and QBs who sat several years but still never amounted to anything. I would guess that the effect of developmental time is statistically significant, but not overwhelming.

I think the reason that it's been so hotly debated is because it often seems that there are more satisfying explanatory variables, such as baseline aptitude (talented but dumb) or supporting cast or coaching/scheme or work ethic. And each QB should be evaluated on a case-by-case basis, of course.

[ReasonablySober]

I think it's just because he seems to be drawing a contrast between top-10 QBs vs. QBs drafted later, but then comes to the conclusion that sitting is better for both groups, which means there's no need to draw a contrast.

Yah, early draft picks are better off sitting to develop, later round picks are better off sitting to develop. Training up your 7th round qb and training up your 1st round qb before unleashing 'em seems like sound practice.

I can buy the possibility that higher picks might need less development on average, but in general I think it's an extremely complicated job with a steep learning curve. That said, I'm sure there are counterexamples both ways - young QBs who started playing well in their first or second year, and QBs who sat several years but still never amounted to anything. I would guess that the effect of developmental time is statistically significant, but not overwhelming.

I think the reason that it's been so hotly debated is because it often seems that there are more satisfying explanatory variables, such as baseline aptitude (talented but dumb) or supporting cast or coaching/scheme or work ethic. And each QB should be evaluated on a case-by-case basis, of course.

I think you can also make a strong case that it's QBs taken in the top ten that typically should sit the most.

Dominique Foxworth has made this his core take the last year or so. The biggest factor in whether or not a QB succeeds isn't his talent. Fox argues just about everyone good enough to be drafted has the talent needed to play. The biggest factor is the situation a QB is drafted into.

Teams at the top are usually there because they're terrible. Drafting a QB and putting them on a terrible team is a recipe for disaster. I think that's hard to argue against when you consider the offenses a bunch of rookie QBs have been asked to lead over the last 15 years.

[M-C-G]

I had an ex girlfriend that treated everything you said (or wrote) like contract law. Some of you are reminding me of her an awful lot.

[M-C-G]

To summarize my position, I think NFL QBs for MOST cases benefit from sitting. The more of a project that you are, the more you typically go later in the draft, but that is not always the case.

I think guys that go late first or later, probably will be more successful if they have multiple years to practice, develop, refine technique, grasp NFL concepts, catch up with the ability to process NFL speed.

There will always be guys that are just ready to throw in there like Stroud, but he wasn't even the first QB taken. It is much more of an anomaly and generally speaking, I think being patient is a better long term approach. I think the NFL made a mistake shifting into the draft and start guys, but I also understand that GMs and coaches don't have the job stability they use to have and that factors in.

*All comments are my own and intended for entertainment purposes only

[M-C-G]

Teams at the top are usually there because they're terrible. Drafting a QB and putting them on a terrible team is a recipe for disaster. I think that's hard to argue against when you consider the offenses a bunch of rookie QBs have been asked to lead over the last 15 years.

Yep, Bryce Young's top WR was Adam Thielen, he had no offensive line and a **** RB room. Reminds me of Derek Carr where he was always running for his life and started admitting that he was 'seeing ghosts' out there because he was getting the yips about being pummeled on every snap.

That's almost the exact situation where you can ruin a young QB.

[Ron Swanson]

It's not something you can accurately quantify with a metric or statistic (sitting for a year), so therefore, some people refuse to believe it's a thing. Of course, I also don't act like I know the exact answer either, but I do know that throwing 22 year old college QB's to the wolves in Year 1 has absolutely ruined careers, and there's a plethora of examples of this (RGIII, Tim Couch, David Carr, etc.). To hand-wave those examples cuz "they would have sucked either way" to me is kind of the ultimate arm-chair GM'ing cliche of viewing these dudes as robots/numbers on a spreadsheet instead of acknowledging the human element in all pro sports. Like, with so many dudes retiring early now and talking about the physical/mental health toll it takes on their bodies and brains, I don't know how you can think it's not a huge variable (throwing a guy out there before he's ready).

[GiannisAnte34]

I think he's going to have a monster year. MVP I'll say. Homerism but more solified line, a leap from rookies.

I think teams having a full season of footage on him + the drastic change in strength of schedule will create a sophomore slump year

they went from one of the easiest cake walk schedules in the league, while having multiple bounces go their way in those games, to now having one of the most brutal schedules in the league. I don't expect them to win more than 8 games TBH

for example the Saints whiffing a 40 yard game winning kick was a bounce that went their way

kickers last season made 481-of-501 field-goal attempts from 39 yards or less, the kick the Saints missed was barely above 39 yards

Blake Grupe missed from 46, not quite as unlikely as the 4% miss rate at 39 and under, but still most kicks from 46 are going in so the Packers caught a big break

[nagawicka]

I think it's just because he seems to be drawing a contrast between top-10 QBs vs. QBs drafted later, but then comes to the conclusion that sitting is better for both groups, which means there's no need to draw a contrast.

Yah, early draft picks are better off sitting to develop, later round picks are better off sitting to develop. Training up your 7th round qb and training up your 1st round qb before unleashing 'em seems like sound practice.

I can buy the possibility that higher picks might need less development on average, but in general I think it's an extremely complicated job with a steep learning curve. That said, I'm sure there are counterexamples both ways - young QBs who started playing well in their first or second year, and QBs who sat several years but still never amounted to anything. I would guess that the effect of developmental time is statistically significant, but not overwhelming.

I think the reason that it's been so hotly debated is because it often seems that there are more satisfying explanatory variables, such as baseline aptitude (talented but dumb) or supporting cast or coaching/scheme or work ethic. And each QB should be evaluated on a case-by-case basis, of course.

Sure, probly early qb success has a lot to do with what a rookie's asked to do within a given scheme etc as he gets acclimated.
Burning question, we can dump all the Bears quarterbacks into one pile though, right. I think we can.

[nagawicka]

Yah, early draft picks are better off sitting to develop, later round picks are better off sitting to develop. Training up your 7th round qb and training up your 1st round qb before unleashing 'em seems like sound practice.

I can buy the possibility that higher picks might need less development on average, but in general I think it's an extremely complicated job with a steep learning curve. That said, I'm sure there are counterexamples both ways - young QBs who started playing well in their first or second year, and QBs who sat several years but still never amounted to anything. I would guess that the effect of developmental time is statistically significant, but not overwhelming.

I think the reason that it's been so hotly debated is because it often seems that there are more satisfying explanatory variables, such as baseline aptitude (talented but dumb) or supporting cast or coaching/scheme or work ethic. And each QB should be evaluated on a case-by-case basis, of course.

I think you can also make a strong case that it's QBs taken in the top ten that typically should sit the most.

Dominique Foxworth has made this his core take the last year or so. The biggest factor in whether or not a QB succeeds isn't his talent. Fox argues just about everyone good enough to be drafted has the talent needed to play. The biggest factor is the situation a QB is drafted into.

Teams at the top are usually there because they're terrible. Drafting a QB and putting them on a terrible team is a recipe for disaster. I think that's hard to argue against when you consider the offenses a bunch of rookie QBs have been asked to lead over the last 15 years.

Agreed. Worst case scenario an insecure new head coach lands a hyped QB @ say #3 and misuses him as some magic solution. 'Here, just go out and run the whole thing.' Make my league-trailing offense/untested scheme into gold. Up to speed is not in that scenario in so many ways. Did Ted Thompson and Ron Wolf just look more closely at late-round qbs, or do personnel guys overlook the flaws in the high-Rd1 picks?

[M-C-G]

I think he's going to have a monster year. MVP I'll say. Homerism but more solified line, a leap from rookies.

I think teams having a full season of footage on him + the drastic change in strength of schedule will create a sophomore slump year

they went from one of the easiest cake walk schedules in the league, while having multiple bounces go their way in those games, to now having one of the most brutal schedules in the league. I don't expect them to win more than 8 games TBH

for example the Saints whiffing a 40 yard game winning kick was a bounce that went their way

kickers last season made 481-of-501 field-goal attempts from 39 yards or less, the kick the Saints missed was barely above 39 yards

Blake Grupe missed from 46, not quite as unlikely as the 4% miss rate at 39 and under, but still most kicks from 46 are going in so the Packers caught a big break

I don’t think Love was remotely the same QB against NO as he was by the end of the season. I’m not sure what the W/L will be but I think he is more the guy that blew out Dallas and put us in a position that even Rodgers couldn’t much, which is go into SF against Shannahan and almost pull out a playoff win.


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[GiannisAnte34]

I think he's going to have a monster year. MVP I'll say. Homerism but more solified line, a leap from rookies.

I think teams having a full season of footage on him + the drastic change in strength of schedule will create a sophomore slump year

they went from one of the easiest cake walk schedules in the league, while having multiple bounces go their way in those games, to now having one of the most brutal schedules in the league. I don't expect them to win more than 8 games TBH

for example the Saints whiffing a 40 yard game winning kick was a bounce that went their way

kickers last season made 481-of-501 field-goal attempts from 39 yards or less, the kick the Saints missed was barely above 39 yards

Blake Grupe missed from 46, not quite as unlikely as the 4% miss rate at 39 and under, but still most kicks from 46 are going in so the Packers caught a big break

I don’t think Love was remotely the same QB against NO as he was by the end of the season. I’m not sure what the W/L will be but I think he is more the guy that blew out Dallas and put us in a position that even Rodgers couldn’t much, which is go into SF against Shannahan and almost pull out a playoff win.


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Rodgers lost to a last second fg kick? How was this loss to SF somehow better?

I think people are just too eager to crown Love, we have all seen QB's in their 1st year be significantly more productive than in their 2nd year because there is no film on them yet

[M-C-G]

I think teams having a full season of footage on him + the drastic change in strength of schedule will create a sophomore slump year

they went from one of the easiest cake walk schedules in the league, while having multiple bounces go their way in those games, to now having one of the most brutal schedules in the league. I don't expect them to win more than 8 games TBH

for example the Saints whiffing a 40 yard game winning kick was a bounce that went their way

kickers last season made 481-of-501 field-goal attempts from 39 yards or less, the kick the Saints missed was barely above 39 yards

Blake Grupe missed from 46, not quite as unlikely as the 4% miss rate at 39 and under, but still most kicks from 46 are going in so the Packers caught a big break

I don’t think Love was remotely the same QB against NO as he was by the end of the season. I’m not sure what the W/L will be but I think he is more the guy that blew out Dallas and put us in a position that even Rodgers couldn’t much, which is go into SF against Shannahan and almost pull out a playoff win.


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Rodgers lost to a last second fg kick? How was this loss to SF somehow better?

I think people are just too eager to crown Love, we have all seen QB's in their 1st year be significantly more productive than in their 2nd year because there is no film on them yet

Rodgers is 0-4 against SF in the playoffs (could be wrong but pretty sure 3 of those were against Shannahan) and even in an MVP season could only get them within a FG. Love had us there in his first season, I think that is an interesting observation.

I also don’t think anyone I have met in real life has ‘crowned’ him but there is a reality that young QBs that get a contract are going to cost you 40-50M in the current landscape, which is akin to being paid like you are a all pro.


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[GiannisAnte34]

I don’t think Love was remotely the same QB against NO as he was by the end of the season. I’m not sure what the W/L will be but I think he is more the guy that blew out Dallas and put us in a position that even Rodgers couldn’t much, which is go into SF against Shannahan and almost pull out a playoff win.


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Rodgers lost to a last second fg kick? How was this loss to SF somehow better?

I think people are just too eager to crown Love, we have all seen QB's in their 1st year be significantly more productive than in their 2nd year because there is no film on them yet

Rodgers is 0-4 against SF in the playoffs (could be wrong but pretty sure 3 of those were against Shannahan) and even in an MVP season could only get them within a FG. Love had us there in his first season, I think that is an interesting observation.

I also don’t think anyone I have met in real life has ‘crowned’ him but there is a reality that young QBs that get a contract are going to cost you 40-50M in the current landscape, which is akin to being paid like you are a all pro.


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we must live in different realities because a lot of Packers fans I know are acting like its a done deal that Love is an elite franchise QB in the same tier as Rodgers and Favre

[M-C-G]

Rodgers lost to a last second fg kick? How was this loss to SF somehow better?

I think people are just too eager to crown Love, we have all seen QB's in their 1st year be significantly more productive than in their 2nd year because there is no film on them yet

Rodgers is 0-4 against SF in the playoffs (could be wrong but pretty sure 3 of those were against Shannahan) and even in an MVP season could only get them within a FG. Love had us there in his first season, I think that is an interesting observation.

I also don’t think anyone I have met in real life has ‘crowned’ him but there is a reality that young QBs that get a contract are going to cost you 40-50M in the current landscape, which is akin to being paid like you are a all pro.


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we must live in different realities because a lot of Packers fans I know are acting like its a done deal that Love is an elite franchise QB in the same tier as Rodgers and Favre

In my family and friend circle, I’m the highest on Love of anybody. I think cautiously optimistic he could be an all pro is the highest opinion I have heard


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[GiannisAnte34]

Rodgers is 0-4 against SF in the playoffs (could be wrong but pretty sure 3 of those were against Shannahan) and even in an MVP season could only get them within a FG. Love had us there in his first season, I think that is an interesting observation.

I also don’t think anyone I have met in real life has ‘crowned’ him but there is a reality that young QBs that get a contract are going to cost you 40-50M in the current landscape, which is akin to being paid like you are a all pro.


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we must live in different realities because a lot of Packers fans I know are acting like its a done deal that Love is an elite franchise QB in the same tier as Rodgers and Favre

In my family and friend circle, I’m the highest on Love of anybody. I think cautiously optimistic he could be an all pro is the highest opinion I have heard


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I think Love drops off hard in his Sophomore year like Dak did, similar trajectory as well

[M-C-G]

we must live in different realities because a lot of Packers fans I know are acting like its a done deal that Love is an elite franchise QB in the same tier as Rodgers and Favre

In my family and friend circle, I’m the highest on Love of anybody. I think cautiously optimistic he could be an all pro is the highest opinion I have heard


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I think Love drops off hard in his Sophomore year like Dak did, similar trajectory as well

Interesting and possible. But once the game slowed down for him in week 10 (or attribute it to whatever you’d like) he had 23 TD and 3 INT which includes two very difficult playoffs opponents on the road.

I guess I am more of the mindset he is just getting warmed up but I could certainly be too optimistic.

One other observation is that the OL seemed to gel around that same time and once he trusted the OL his game really took off. But who knows


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[GiannisAnte34]

In my family and friend circle, I’m the highest on Love of anybody. I think cautiously optimistic he could be an all pro is the highest opinion I have heard


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I think Love drops off hard in his Sophomore year like Dak did, similar trajectory as well

Interesting and possible. But once the game slowed down for him in week 10 (or attribute it to whatever you’d like) he had 23 TD and 3 INT which includes two very difficult playoffs opponents on the road.

I guess I am more of the mindset he is just getting warmed up but I could certainly be too optimistic.

One other observation is that the OL seemed to gel around that same time and once he trusted the OL his game really took off. But who knows


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people said the same things about Baker his first year when he threw 27 TDs on a crummy Cleveland team

[M-C-G]

I think Love drops off hard in his Sophomore year like Dak did, similar trajectory as well

Interesting and possible. But once the game slowed down for him in week 10 (or attribute it to whatever you’d like) he had 23 TD and 3 INT which includes two very difficult playoffs opponents on the road.

I guess I am more of the mindset he is just getting warmed up but I could certainly be too optimistic.

One other observation is that the OL seemed to gel around that same time and once he trusted the OL his game really took off. But who knows


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people said the same things about Baker his first year when he threw 27 TDs on a crummy Cleveland team

People say lots of stuff but Baker still had 14 INT to go with it. I think your glass is half empty and mine is half full. We probably both hope I am right.


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[Ron Swanson]

Pretty sure you'd be hard-pressed to find a single metric that painted 2018 Baker as a Top-10 QB in football though. Sure, sometimes guys regress from their 1st years. I don't see anything to indicate that with Love other than blind speculation though. He's in an offense loaded with young play-makers, with one of the best play-callers in the league, and showed that he could make all the high level throws in high leverage situations. That's usually a pretty damn good recipe for consistent success.

[GiannisAnte34]

Interesting and possible. But once the game slowed down for him in week 10 (or attribute it to whatever you’d like) he had 23 TD and 3 INT which includes two very difficult playoffs opponents on the road.

I guess I am more of the mindset he is just getting warmed up but I could certainly be too optimistic.

One other observation is that the OL seemed to gel around that same time and once he trusted the OL his game really took off. But who knows


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people said the same things about Baker his first year when he threw 27 TDs on a crummy Cleveland team

People say lots of stuff but Baker still had 14 INT to go with it. I think your glass is half empty and mine is half full. We probably both hope I am right.


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If you dig deep into 2nd year QBs (particularly those with a mobile element) almost all of them fall off significantly. RG3, Dak, Vince Young, Steve Young... the drop off is steeper for those that had a harder schedule their 2nd year too