What's Your Valuation/Best Offer for Josh Giddey

[BlazersBroncos]

Justise Winslow 2.0 with substantially worse defense.

I mean if we ignore things like availability and skill, sure.

I think just availability.

And if you're talking defensive skill, I agree some of that needs to be ignored to have Giddey on similar footing to Winslow.

Giddey is as better on offense than Winslow as Winslow is better on defense. They are not that similar at all.

Josh is being highly undervalued here. Its recency bias and that human, I get it. That being said, I sure as hell would love to buy low on him.

FWIW - Josh has a EFG% of above 50% 2/3 years while Winslow never cracked the 50% mark.

[greg4012]

I mean if we ignore things like availability and skill, sure.

I think just availability.

And if you're talking defensive skill, I agree some of that needs to be ignored to have Giddey on similar footing to Winslow.

Giddey is as better on offense than Winslow as Winslow is better on defense. They are not that similar at all.

Josh is being highly undervalued here. Its recency bias and that human, I get it. That being said, I sure as hell would love to buy low on him.

FWIW - Josh has a EFG% of above 50% 2/3 years while Winslow never cracked the 50% mark.

Forget recency bias--I've always seen Josh the same. Reality is catching up to the lofty idea of a young prospect. He has the benefit of playing in a perfect spacing scenario with great teammates. Whoever pays him above market for his next contract will regret it.

[GoBobs]

He is going to be paid whatever the market will bear soon enough, which means he will be overpaid vs his production because his youth and potential will have some value.

He isn't worth anything in a trade. The NBA is flush with youth and potential.

Okc could still trade him if they sell low and attach enough picks. Giddey and 2 firsts for Mikal Bridges makes sense.

[lpbman]

Steven Adams to OKC
Tate to Orl
Giddy to Orl
Isaac to Hou

Houston wants the 2025 pick swap to OKC back, Magic give up a pick to make that happen. Not polished idea, but outline.

[DrModesty]

He literally just started 80 games for the best team in his conference.... And then started every game in the first round series they won and played well.

It's fine to question him, but we should at least not just ignore the reality of what we just witnessed, no?

Dogs and cats getting along. I agree with TC. I actually think Giddey could be a steal for the right team/system. He has been miscasted. If typecasted, I think he thrives.

I’m intrigued by any player said to have exceptional BBIQ & court vision and ORL likes em long…what’s his ideal role, how was he miscast?

His ideal role would be lead ball handler who is expected to score about 16-18 ppg. Essentially the Jason Kidd role, but with worse defense. In his first two years he was the secondary ball handler and scoring option. Not ideal, but close enough, especially given your number 1 option is an SGA already averaging 24/6 before you get there. Very few players get the opportunity to develop in their perfect role until they succeed or fail out of it.

This year he was the tertiary ball handler, and fourth scoring option. That role prioritizes spacing and defense as the playmaking and driving opportunities are far more sparce.

One big issue is that the Thunder improved too rapidly and so a number of players didn't get the runway they needed to develop. For Giddey, last years .500 season needed to be in his 4th season instead of his sophomore one. The season they just had needed to happen half way through his extension (At which point he'd only be 24/25).

This didn't just hurt Giddey either. Tre Mann lost his spot to Joe. Poku lost his spot to J-Will. Dieng is trapped behind Kenrich and Wiggins. And although Giddey starts, he has had to sacrifice his natural game to SGA and J-Dub. Tre and Poku have both experienced relative renaissances in Charlotte. Hopefully Giddey can do the same wherever he ends up.

I don't think Giddey works on Orlando because they are also ascending rapidly, and his specific fit is choppy with an Orlando roster that badly needs shooting. Giddey needs to go to a team that is gonna suck for another 2 years minimum, and that doesn't have a primary ball handler (Or a role player masquerading as a number 1 option ala Kuzma). Best fits are Wash, Utah, Nets, Bulls (if they get off DeRozan and Lavine). San Antonio is a maybe. Any other new team that freshly enters rebuild status works.

The types of current star talents that would work best with Giddey are those who benefit most from his playmaking. AD/Chet/Mobley(at center)/Wemby(assumedly)/Porzingis/Lauri/Kawhi/PG13/Durant/Bridges/Bane/Steph. 3&D guys work with him too of course, as do elite shooters and cutters.

[Colbinii]

Dogs and cats getting along. I agree with TC. I actually think Giddey could be a steal for the right team/system. He has been miscasted. If typecasted, I think he thrives.

I’m intrigued by any player said to have exceptional BBIQ & court vision and ORL likes em long…what’s his ideal role, how was he miscast?

His ideal role would be lead ball handler who is expected to score about 16-18 ppg. Essentially the Jason Kidd role, but with worse defense. In his first two years he was the secondary ball handler and scoring option. Not ideal, but close enough, especially given your number 1 option is an SGA already averaging 24/6 before you get there. Very few players get the opportunity to develop in their perfect role until they succeed or fail out of it.

The problem here is a poor-man's Jason Kidd offensively without defense [and being a negative defensively] isn't really a winning player.

Rubio/Kidd archetype [Poor man's/Rich man's] were effective because they were ATG defensive players.

There is still a chance Giddey makes it in the NBA as an impact player, but it seems clear that the door is slowly shutting on the "What-If". I expect his talent to keep him as a popular piece on this board but I'm expecting to dish the crow rather than eat it for Giddey.

[Kizz Fastfists]

He's on a downward trajectory. Right now, he's at his lowest value considering how bad he looked in the playoffs.

Personally, I don't value him all that much. He has to be in a perfect situation (like OKC) in order to succeed.

OKC is one of the worst places for him. He's at his best as the primary ball handler. OKC needs him to be more of a spot up shooter, which is his worst offensive skill at this point, and 3rd ball handler. He could be a very good PG for a team that has shooters to play around him.

[DrModesty]

I’m intrigued by any player said to have exceptional BBIQ & court vision and ORL likes em long…what’s his ideal role, how was he miscast?

His ideal role would be lead ball handler who is expected to score about 16-18 ppg. Essentially the Jason Kidd role, but with worse defense. In his first two years he was the secondary ball handler and scoring option. Not ideal, but close enough, especially given your number 1 option is an SGA already averaging 24/6 before you get there. Very few players get the opportunity to develop in their perfect role until they succeed or fail out of it.

The problem here is a poor-man's Jason Kidd offensively without defense [and being a negative defensively] isn't really a winning player.

Rubio/Kidd archetype [Poor man's/Rich man's] were effective because they were ATG defensive players.

There is still a chance Giddey makes it in the NBA as an impact player, but it seems clear that the door is slowly shutting on the "What-If". I expect his talent to keep him as a popular piece on this board but I'm expecting to dish the crow rather than eat it for Giddey.

The player I am talking about is clearly a level above Rubio offensively. In fact Giddey right now matches peak Rubio on offense. Kidd on the other hand is an All Time Great. There is plenty of middle ground there. I did say later in the post that he needs to go to a team that is going to suck for multiple years to keep developing, and there is obvious contingency on his defense at least becoming passable. The guy is still only 21.

[gswhoops]

I don't think he's a starter for any team outside of a bottom feeder. No reason for the Rockets to entertain a deal for Giddey.

He literally just started 80 games for the best team in his conference.... And then started every game in the first round series they won and played well.

It's fine to question him, but we should at least not just ignore the reality of what we just witnessed, no?

This is the inverse of the "Jonas Valanciunas is a 20/10 player despite never putting up 20/10" thread from a couple days (weeks?) ago.

[gswhoops]

In this draft, I'd peg his value around the second half of the lotto (i.e., the 8-14 picks). I'd consider it if I were SA, Memphis, Utah, Chicago.