2023-24 NBA Season Discussion

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Re: 2023-24 NBA Season Discussion 

Post#3441 » by The-Power » Thu May 23, 2024 5:46 am

eminence wrote:If Conley can't take the Kyrie matchup I'd consider starting NAW. Maybe if they weren't coming off a 7 game series Ant would have the energy for both ends, but he just looked completely gassed by the end tonight (and not exactly fresh to start).

The problem is that Minnesota could not get anything going inside. Offensive creation is a problem and while Conley is not a great at this point of his career, taking him out for NAW spells trouble for their offense (more so than already). I understand the idea behind it and it could well be worth a shot but I don't like either option for them. I also don't think it's just Edwards being gassed. Dallas is also a worse match-up for him than Phoenix and Denver.
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Re: 2023-24 NBA Season Discussion 

Post#3442 » by LukaTheGOAT » Thu May 23, 2024 5:48 am

Peregrine01 wrote:
falcolombardi wrote:I am getting flashbacks to when people would blame the lebron system on why his team was bad when he was on the bench which is a logic that nobody ever has applied to other players with their own systems around them
(Forever bitterly pointing that out and the "limited ceiling in spite of better team offenses than the guys he is theorically less of a ceiling raiser thsn" bit)

Now back to jokic. Denver is an engine built to be optimized and brought together by Jokic, so if we apply the reasoning that a lot of this board has used to criticize other players portability or ceiling raising he would be responsible for his teammates being dependant on him when he sits. Of course that would be stupid but i wanted to point it out

The idea that Jokic as an engine cannot conceivably have ubderperformed because his team was bad without him doesnt hold to scrutiny because they were not exactly setting the world on fire with jokic there
Jokic for all of his genius and brilliant skillset struggled with bruteforcing shot creation (imo due to the inherent weak point of not being a ball handler) as he created minuscule advantages and the clock was constantly reset, while being doubled and passing back and forcing the D to scramble to recovet is -good- it is not -great- as creating a opem 3 off a drive is

denver team was built to optimize a post offense with their spscing and lob threat/cutter, unfortunately whether it’s the limits to Jokic’s post offense or post offense in general, it failed to produce trong offense results.

Jokic had a good offensive rating in 3 of 7 games, one of which he only performed at all in the second half after jamal brought denver up 23

This is not to say it was a bad series, but i think it showed that despite his skill/vision jokic offense is not some unstopabble or perfect dynamo


Because maybe, just maybe, teammates matter? Watching Kyrie and Luka beat Minny's ball pressure was night and day compared to the hell that they had Murray in. We also can't underestimate how taxing ball pressure is and the fact that Minny just emerged from a 7-game war that probably had their legs spent. Ant especially looked worn out.

Agree on post offense though which is why I don't think Malone coached that series well.


Yeah, and I think matchups have to be considered.

Like yes, the Mavs could perform better than the Wolves. Matchups matter, and the Timberwolves are specifically built to beat the Nuggets, in large part thanks to Tim Connelly probably understanding his old stomping grounds quite well.

I don't think GOAT offensive players will always have their teams put up the best offensive results. Sometimes it can be the most unlikely individuals, who just seem to know how to work their way around something.

Compare the Michael Jordan's "rough," performance against the Knicks in 1993 versus Reggie Miller's performance against the same team.


1993 Reggie Miller vs Knicks

31.5 ppg on 68.7 TS%  

Rough estimate because they BR numbers but Miller had a 129 ORTG on the court


1993 Jordan vs Knicks

32.2 ppg on 52.2 TS%

Jordan had a 113 ORTG on the court.


Just off a quick look at this, you could argue that Miller was scraping or even exceeding MJ's impact against the Knicks. He didn't do as much on ball handling or playmaking as MJ, but I think what lead to the Pacers success on that end was that they were not ready for the incessant moving of Miller all over the court. I believe they were more prepared for a more direct attacking style of an on-ball star, because well that is more common for stars to do. This meant they couldn't stop themselves from fouling him off-ball or when he finally did put the ball on the floor, the idiosyncratic rhythm to his dribble, which got guys off-balance and when they made contact with him, meant he would hoist up a shot which often lead to a foul. They also weren't prepared for someone to be jacking from 3 so frequently (he was taking them at today's rates), and with FG% being so dominant, it didn't quite hit them just how efficient Miller's 3s were.

This isn't a a one-off thing. You can look at the surrounding stretches, and it definitely seems like the Knicks struggled to contain the Pacers offense more than Chicago's.

1992 Jordan vs Knicks

31.3 ppg on 53.9 TS%

Jordan-107 ORTG


1994 Miller vs Knicks

24.7 ppg on 57.6 TS%

Miller-123 ORTG


Miller go the worst of Knicks defenses, as the 93 and 94 Knicks put up a -8.3 and -8.1 rDRTG, respectively, which are the 3rd and 4th best defenses ever. No single core can lay claim to having 2 single-years in the top 5 of similar ever. So similiar to how people describe the Timberwolves now, this was an all-time defense that made things more difficult on acclaimed GOAT level offensive guys.


Now I don't think anyone would dare to say Miller was in the same tier as Jordan as an offensive player. As a matter of fact, people believe there are several tiers between them. I can rarely get people here to see Miller as a potential top 10 scorer ever case, and therefore that trickles down to him not being seen as that great of an offensive guy (merely a feeble all-star in many minds).

And this is my point, if the Mavs performed better than the Nuggets, I don't see that as automatically damning, because I think you could argue Minn. doesn't take away Dallas' strengths as much as they do, Denver's; Peregrine01 already mentioned the handling. It is naturally harder to double a smart ball-handler vs. a smart post guy, because a handler can navigate more around the court typically. I think Minn. doubles hurt Jokic more than most doubles.

Finally, as illustrated above, clearly lesser players have been able to lead better offenses than their superior counterparts depending on matchups, and I'd think it be shrewd to consider, who has really dampened Jokic's scoring since he started putting up what some people consider a ATG plus-minus numbers (which started in 22)...really it's been the Wolves last playoffs and this playoffs, and that's it.

Now you could compare Jokic and Luka against similar opponents against since they have debuted in the playoffs. I've done those comparisons, and Luka actually looks quite favorable there, but that was not the original assertion.
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Re: 2023-24 NBA Season Discussion 

Post#3443 » by GSP » Thu May 23, 2024 8:22 am

This is a tough series for Ant b/c Dallas has been a top 5 paint defense since getting Gafford and Pj. Phoenix and Denver were 2 of the worst paint defenses and gave up a lot inside. Phoenix doesnt even have a real big w/ how unplayable and horrible Nurk is in the playoffs and everyone knows to attack Jokic weak paint defense La put a clinic on it 1st round. Ant could do anything he wanted and get inside whenever. Not happening here

Sga is one of the best drivers and finishers even he couldn't get much of anything inside against Dallas. But Sga is one of the top midrange scorers and shooters there. He carried them from that range and kept them in the games and even stole one where he didnt miss a mid-range shot all game Iirc to tie up the series

Dallas dares you to beat them from 3 and give up a lot. They completely pack the paint and have 2 elite shot blockers one starting and Lively who outplayed Rudy off the bench. Dallas offense relies heavily on paint points too they are a paint dominant team on both ends

Wolves shooting as many 3s as they did is no abberation Finch post game even thought they could get more. Ant doesnt have a mid-range or post game in the same galaxy as Sga he will struggle or at the least not play anywhere as well against Phoenix or Denver here with the matchup.

If Wolves win this series Kat is Wcfmvp Imo. He played well in 2nd half but prolly knows he has to be more aggressive I think he'll need a couple massive games where he's even the game high on points of both teams w/ some huge 3pt shooting games. This isnt gonna be like the last 2 series where it was Antman averaging 30 Ppg and Wolves dominant defense collectively as well on offense chipping in. Kat has to be the number 1 guy Imo
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Re: 2023-24 NBA Season Discussion 

Post#3444 » by The-Power » Thu May 23, 2024 8:39 am

It's insane to think about the defensive talent in this Rookie class spearheaded by three elite defensive bigs (one being a generational prospect on that end). Lively's impact has been enormous as teams continue to avoid challenging him.
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Re: 2023-24 NBA Season Discussion 

Post#3445 » by TheGOATRises007 » Thu May 23, 2024 9:18 am

Mavericks are a really good team. Still leaning with the Wolves winning this series, but the Mavericks have a very good roster.

I thought they were missing 1 good role player to contend, but they have enough.

Luka/Kyrie is a very dangerous 1-2 punch. Oddly enough, Luka's current playoff run from raw production lags behind his other runs by a hefty amount. If he's almost healed physically, I truly think he's due an insane game where he goes for 40+.
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Re: 2023-24 NBA Season Discussion 

Post#3446 » by Colbinii » Thu May 23, 2024 11:52 am

Kyrie having the first half he did kept Dallas in the game. If he didn't have that incredible first half, the game was a blow-out.
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Re: 2023-24 NBA Season Discussion 

Post#3447 » by Colbinii » Thu May 23, 2024 11:59 am

The-Power wrote:
eminence wrote:If Conley can't take the Kyrie matchup I'd consider starting NAW. Maybe if they weren't coming off a 7 game series Ant would have the energy for both ends, but he just looked completely gassed by the end tonight (and not exactly fresh to start).

The problem is that Minnesota could not get anything going inside. Offensive creation is a problem and while Conley is not a great at this point of his career, taking him out for NAW spells trouble for their offense (more so than already). I understand the idea behind it and it could well be worth a shot but I don't like either option for them. I also don't think it's just Edwards being gassed. Dallas is also a worse match-up for him than Phoenix and Denver.


It isn't just Edwards being gassed, but Minnesota was playing 4v5 on offense for most of the 2nd half because of how exhausted Edwards was.

At the end of the day this is the match-up that is going to highlight Minnesota's offensive limitations. Dallas has players who fit the mold of "KAT Stoppers", which is Batum-type bigs like P.J. Washington who are quick enough to close out on him and can suffocate any space to prevent drives and shooting space. Edwards, while gassed, struggled to get separation from anyone, even the bigs on the perimeter. If he can consistently get into the paint, it will open things up for the offense, as Conley was the only player trying to do so.

I think it is important to remember Minnesota believes they can outlast any team in 7 games with their depth. Are Luka and Kyrie going to be able to play 40-41 Minutes each night and carry a 30-40% usage? We will see.
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Re: 2023-24 NBA Season Discussion 

Post#3448 » by 70sFan » Thu May 23, 2024 12:44 pm

It's staggering how much of a difference a good paint defense makes. Against Dallas Ant suddenly doesn't look like MJ, at least in the first game.

I'm sure Minny will make adjustments, but it will be an interesting series to watch going future.
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Re: 2023-24 NBA Season Discussion 

Post#3449 » by Ambrose » Thu May 23, 2024 2:04 pm

Colbinii wrote:Kyrie having the first half he did kept Dallas in the game. If he didn't have that incredible first half, the game was a blow-out.


I mean, if Dallas makes their open 3's, it's a blowout too. What they did looked more repeatable.
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Re: 2023-24 NBA Season Discussion 

Post#3450 » by Texas Chuck » Thu May 23, 2024 2:27 pm

Ambrose wrote:
Colbinii wrote:Kyrie having the first half he did kept Dallas in the game. If he didn't have that incredible first half, the game was a blow-out.


I mean, if Dallas makes their open 3's, it's a blowout too. What they did looked more repeatable.


Eh we just can't know either way. Kyrie has been 2nd half man all playoffs so maybe Luka/role players pick up slack in the first half. And Minnesota was denying the corner 3 knowing Dallas doesn't have the kind of shooters to burn you from above the break.

My guess is Dallas is going to shoot a poor percentage from 3 if Minny keeps defending the PNR like that. IF they adjust to do something about the paint points, corners open up and percentages should rise.

All we learned from that series is these teams are pretty evenly matched. Which I think most people thought(some definitely thought Minny and Denver played for the title last round, but that's a minority).
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Re: 2023-24 NBA Season Discussion 

Post#3451 » by Colbinii » Thu May 23, 2024 3:14 pm

Ambrose wrote:
Colbinii wrote:Kyrie having the first half he did kept Dallas in the game. If he didn't have that incredible first half, the game was a blow-out.


I mean, if Dallas makes their open 3's, it's a blowout too. What they did looked more repeatable.


Minnesota's game plan was to eliminate the Corner 3 and make mediocre 3P shooters make above the Break 3's. I don't see 25-30% from 3 on Non-Corner 3's to be an aberration.

If Minnesota [and Anthony Edwards] are exhausted all game long and refuse to dribble into the 3P line to generate open looks, then Minnesota is going to struggle to score offensively. I have an inkling that Anthony Edwards is going to be more aggressive next game [He shot just 4 times inside the 3P line and had just 2 FTA]. It was his most passive game of the post-season, and the second half indications of exhaustions appear to be the most logical explanation after coming off a 7-game series against the title favorites.

Dallas with Lively and Gafford having more energy than Gobert/Towns is going to be a recipe for success for them. Lively in particular is so light on his feet that he can switch onto the perimeter which gives them a defensive layer Minnesota has not seen in the post-season.
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Re: 2023-24 NBA Season Discussion 

Post#3452 » by tsherkin » Thu May 23, 2024 3:57 pm

Colbinii wrote:If Minnesota [and Anthony Edwards] are exhausted all game long and refuse to dribble into the 3P line to generate open looks,


Yeah, this was a big deal. Ant actually shot well from 3, but he was SUUUUUUPER passive for most of the game. He just seemed to refuse to drive for most of the night. I hope he has more life in him for the next game, for Minny's sake. That's a game they could have taken. What was odd is that he seemed spirited above the arc, dribbling and moving with bounce... he just ignored or turned away from dribble penetration opportunities the whole night. His legs seemed fine. Seemed more mental than anything else, though that's from my 20,000-foot view, of course.

Texas Chuck wrote:My guess is Dallas is going to shoot a poor percentage from 3 if Minny keeps defending the PNR like that. IF they adjust to do something about the paint points, corners open up and percentages should rise.


Seems likely. But of course, if they keep playing that drop, Luka and Kyrie are going to eat them alive with lobs and shots inside 10 feet. So I think the variance from 3 might be more appealing, in many ways. I know SVG took a second on the broadcast to realize that Minny was actively gaming Dallas with the drop, but his point about how they were forcing decisions in the paint once they switched it up a bit wasn't wrong either.
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Re: 2023-24 NBA Season Discussion 

Post#3453 » by Special_Puppy » Thu May 23, 2024 4:02 pm

Is Anthony Edwards actually injured or is he just having a "rough" 2 games?
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Re: 2023-24 NBA Season Discussion 

Post#3454 » by Ambrose » Thu May 23, 2024 4:07 pm

Colbinii wrote:
Ambrose wrote:
Colbinii wrote:Kyrie having the first half he did kept Dallas in the game. If he didn't have that incredible first half, the game was a blow-out.


I mean, if Dallas makes their open 3's, it's a blowout too. What they did looked more repeatable.


Minnesota's game plan was to eliminate the Corner 3 and make mediocre 3P shooters make above the Break 3's. I don't see 25-30% from 3 on Non-Corner 3's to be an aberration.

If Minnesota [and Anthony Edwards] are exhausted all game long and refuse to dribble into the 3P line to generate open looks, then Minnesota is going to struggle to score offensively. I have an inkling that Anthony Edwards is going to be more aggressive next game [He shot just 4 times inside the 3P line and had just 2 FTA]. It was his most passive game of the post-season, and the second half indications of exhaustions appear to be the most logical explanation after coming off a 7-game series against the title favorites.

Dallas with Lively and Gafford having more energy than Gobert/Towns is going to be a recipe for success for them. Lively in particular is so light on his feet that he can switch onto the perimeter which gives them a defensive layer Minnesota has not seen in the post-season.


I mean, Dallas missed plenty of open corner 3's too. It's not like they didn't get good looks there either. Was it Ant playing passive or was it Dallas saying you're not going to get into the paint? I'd argue it's at least partially the latter, and that it's something they can duplicate. DJJ is the best perimeter defender Ant's seen this postseason and has the two best rim protectors they've seen behind him. Dallas has the wings to bother Ant offensively, and if he wants to stick with defending Kyrie, the stamina issue may not be a one off.

Which is why I said what Dallas did last night looked easier to repeat than what Minnesota did. I don't buy that Kyrie getting hot isn't repeatable. They were able to get what they wanted on offense for the most part, and probably don't have to worry about too many six 3ptm games from Jaden. Dallas to me was definitely the better team last night.

But it's one game, so it doesn't have much bearing on the series as a whole, and these teams will obviously adjust. FWIW I picked Minnesota, and still think they'll win the series.
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Re: 2023-24 NBA Season Discussion 

Post#3455 » by tsherkin » Thu May 23, 2024 4:33 pm

falcolombardi wrote:Is only 1 game so far but the crowning some people made for jokic as the best offensive player by far is gonna look very questionable if dallas outperforms them


Not really. I mean, the offensive context around Jokic versus around Luka is totally different. Kyrie alone changes that dynamic, let alone the function of the other roleplayers. Dallas isn't watching their MPJ equivalent crap the bed entirely and force everything onto their solo star. That's what happened in Denver, though.

But he only managed 3 good offensive games against the wolves (and in 1 of those games he was shut down the first half and cooked his stats only after his co star brought them up 23)


That's... not really accurate, though. He didn't have a ton of ultra-dominant scoring games, but he had a wide variety of good offensive games. He really only had one bad scoring night.

Ambrose wrote:I mean, Dallas missed plenty of open corner 3's too. It's not like they didn't get good looks there either. Was it Ant playing passive or was it Dallas saying you're not going to get into the paint? I'd argue it's at least partially the latter, and that it's something they can duplicate.


There were tons of possessions where very visibly looked off dribble drive attempts he could have made. A lot of those turned into 3s or passes. We'll have to see Game 2 in order to get a better idea, of course, but Dallas' D wasn't denying him all night, and he wasn't really attacking the PnR with intent to get into the lane at all, either. He was visibly committed to volume 3pt shooting the whole night, not even probing first a lot of the time, wherefore the commentary about his passive play.
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Re: 2023-24 NBA Season Discussion 

Post#3456 » by Texas Chuck » Thu May 23, 2024 4:36 pm

tsherkin wrote:Dallas isn't watching their MPJ equivalent crap the bed entirely and force everything onto their solo star. That's what happened in Denver, though.



I thought Kyrie was good in the OKC series. So let me lead with that. But for him to average under 15 ppg, and under 5 in the first half often while barely taking a shot.... Luka absolutely had to carry a big load offensively because of how Ky played.

Encouraging as a MAvs fan to see Kyrie come out aggressive from the very jump something he hasn't really done all year. He usually wades into games. Not last time. He attacked immediately.
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Re: 2023-24 NBA Season Discussion 

Post#3457 » by tsherkin » Thu May 23, 2024 4:45 pm

Texas Chuck wrote:I thought Kyrie was good in the OKC series. So let me lead with that. But for him to average under 15 ppg, and under 5 in the first half often while barely taking a shot.... Luka absolutely had to carry a big load offensively because of how Ky played.

Encouraging as a MAvs fan to see Kyrie come out aggressive from the very jump something he hasn't really done all year. He usually wades into games. Not last time. He attacked immediately.


He flipped it. Very quiet in the second half, very active in the first. It'll be interesting to see how that goes over the length of the series, for sure.

To me, Luka's load looked similar to his usual level of offensive responsibility. It's worth remembering he was taking almost 5 fewer FGA/g compared to the RS (although I'm sure playing at 7 possessions per game slower than the RS had something to do with that as well). Jones picked it up. Washington picked it up. Other guys were doing their thing, which helped distribute the offense a little more with Kyrie doing less. Luka ALWAYS carries a big load, in other words, and wasn't really doing anything dramatically different in that regard in the OKC series, certainly not more so than usual.

And more importantly to my original remark, his guys were coming through in a timely fashion, whereas in Denver, they were crapping the bad around Jokic a fair bit, so it isn't quite a comparable scenario.
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Re: 2023-24 NBA Season Discussion 

Post#3458 » by Colbinii » Thu May 23, 2024 4:47 pm

tsherkin wrote:
Seems likely. But of course, if they keep playing that drop, Luka and Kyrie are going to eat them alive with lobs and shots inside 10 feet. So I think the variance from 3 might be more appealing, in many ways. I know SVG took a second on the broadcast to realize that Minny was actively gaming Dallas with the drop, but his point about how they were forcing decisions in the paint once they switched it up a bit wasn't wrong either.


Yeah, at the end of the day, Minnesota held Dallas to a 113 Ortg and had a 111 Ortg themselves. Minnesota's offense needs to be better and can certainly live with a 110-115 Ortg for Dallas over the course of the series.
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Re: 2023-24 NBA Season Discussion 

Post#3459 » by CKRT » Thu May 23, 2024 5:01 pm

It's not a new point, but it is pretty funny that we are talking about living with a team hitting 110-115 ORTG. I remember just over a decade ago, Bastion was (rightly) convinced that Harden was a superstar in the making in 2011/2012 for hitting those marks and how Nash-like of an effect he had on the Thunder's offense.
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Re: 2023-24 NBA Season Discussion 

Post#3460 » by tsherkin » Thu May 23, 2024 5:02 pm

Colbinii wrote:
tsherkin wrote:
Seems likely. But of course, if they keep playing that drop, Luka and Kyrie are going to eat them alive with lobs and shots inside 10 feet. So I think the variance from 3 might be more appealing, in many ways. I know SVG took a second on the broadcast to realize that Minny was actively gaming Dallas with the drop, but his point about how they were forcing decisions in the paint once they switched it up a bit wasn't wrong either.


Yeah, at the end of the day, Minnesota held Dallas to a 113 Ortg and had a 111 Ortg themselves. Minnesota's offense needs to be better and can certainly live with a 110-115 Ortg for Dallas over the course of the series.


Yeah, I just posted about this in the series thread on the GB.

Minny was brutally useless on O in the second half and they checked Dallas quite handily in the second half, but still lost it 49-43 with BRUTAL shooting. Not-Naz Reid was 5/23 from 3 in the second half. Ant was 2/7, KAT was 1/6. They were bombing away and they were sucking at it. That's double Dallas' H2 3pt volume and only 3 more makes. :o

So yeah, they need to get their act together on O pretty badly.

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